Free Picks and Service Plays for Sunday, July 31 2016. These include free plays, comp plays and newsletter selections.
DAVE COKIN
RED SOX VS. ANGELS
PLAY: ANGELS +104
Tyler Skaggs, part two for me today. I played on Skaggs and the Angels in his return to the majors earlier this week, and I want to ride the talented southpaw again in this spot.
Skaggs, who had been nothing short of brilliant in his final two AAA rehab starts, looked outstanding in handling the Royals on Tuesday night. Granted, the Red Sox lineup is vastly superior to that of the Royals, and there’s always the chance of the bounce effect coming into play off such a sensational first game back for Skaggs.
But I think it’s fair to say that Skaggs is catching Boston at the right time. The Red Sox offense isn’t in hibernation, but it’s definitely snoozing. If I’m going to try and beat the Bosox, I’d certainly rather try to do so when they’re not mashing.
Steven Wright will be on the mound for the Red Sox, and the knuckleballer is off a very bad outing where he appeared to be bothered by the heat and humidity. Wright could not get a good grip and therefore could not command his best pitch. That meant he had to rely on his other offerings more, and let’s just say those aren’t big league level pitches. I think Wright has a good chance to bounce back in this game against a so-so Halos lineup.
I definitely input current team form into my numbers, and with the Red Sox in a funk while the Angels are playing well, I made the Halos -110 in this game. So I feel like I’m getting okay value and with a definite desire to follow Skaggs for at least one more start, I’m taking the Angels in this series finale.
Sleepyj
Cardinals / Marlins Under 8
I'll be on this under here for sure...A few things I like in this one..Cashner now is with the Marlins after he was traded away from the Padres..New guys always want to step up for the new team and Miami actually looks good this season..Cashner can help them out in a major way...Cards haven't seen much of him so he might be able to limit them hitting here on the road...Martinez goes for the Cards and has been solid all year..Cards can;t afford a loss here and Martinez is just a true fire baller...I can't see this hitting 9 runs..Under is the call.
Bruce Marshall
Milwaukee +125
As the past two nights, good value in this series finale for Milwaukee. Starter Matt Garza finally delivered a quality start in his last outing as the Brewers whipped the D-backs 9-4. Meanwhile the disappointing Bucs, now without traded closer Mark Melancon, must entrust erratic starter Francisco Liriano, in the midst of a disappointing season (6-10 record and 5.38 ERA).
Rob Vinciletti
Houston vs. Detroit
Play: Houston -153
The Astros have D. Keuchel on the mound and he is 4-0 vs the Tigers allowing just 3 runs in 22+ innings and he has a solid 2,15 era in his last 3 starts. Pelfrey for the Tigers has a 7.86 era. Pelfrey has lost his last 3 starts. This game also fits a nice system that plays against home dogs like Detroit that are off a 1 run home favored scoring 4 or less runs on 5+ hits with no errors. Look for Detroit to win this one.
Mike Lundin
Red Sox vs. Angels
Play: Angels +105
The Los Angeles Angels have played great baseball since the All Star break and have been rewarded with the win in 10 of their 15 games. They defeated the Boston Red Sox 5-2 on Saturday to take a 2-1 lead in this series, and I like the Halos to close out the set with another victory Sunday afternoon.
Tyler Skaggs (1-0, 0.00) will take the ball for Los Angeles. The 25 year old has spent the last two seasons recuperating from Tommy John surgery, but he's been extrmely sharp lately. Skaggs was 3-1 with a 1.19 ERA in four July starts at Triple-A Salt Lake before getting called up to the big leagues, and he held the defending World Series champions Kansas City scoreless over seven innings of three-hit ball on Tuesday.
The Red Sox turn to Steven Wright (12-5, 3.12 ERA) who has posted a 6.61 ERA and a WHIP of 1.531 in three career meetings with the Angeles. He's surrendered a combined 16 runs over 9 1/3 innings in his last two outings as the knuckleballer has struggled with his grip and command in the heat. With weather reports indicating a temperature of around 88 °F for today's contest Wright might be in four another rough outing.
Angels are 8-1 in their last nine home games, Angels are 9-3 in their last 12 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.
Marc Lawrence
Colorado at New York
Play: Colorado +185
Edges - Rockies: Chad Bettis 8-1 last nine overall team starts; and 4-0 last four away team starts during July. Mets: Noah Syndergaard 1-3 team starts versus N.L. West this season. With the Rockies 3-0 versus N.L. East foes behind Bettis this season, and Syndergaard 0-2 with a 4.23 ERA in his last two home starts, a we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Bob Harvey
Cardinals vs. Marlins
Play: Cardinals -113
A pair of Wild Card contenders square off in Miami where the Marlins host the St. Louis Cardinals in the rubber match of their three-game series. The total is eight.
The Marlins (56-48, 28-24 home)pulled back into a tie with the Cardinals for the second wild card in the National League with an 11-0 romp on Saturday. Marcell Ozuna homered for the second straight night as Miami snapped the Cardinals' three-game winning streak. Dee Gordon, in his second game back from an 80-game suspension, scored three times and had a stolen base. The Cardinals (56-48, 31-18 road) one night after beating the Marlins 11-6, St. Louis managed just six hits on Saturday.
Carlos Martínez (10-6, 2.87 ERA) would rate the edge in today’s mound matchup solely on his road record. The hard-throwing righthander is 6-1 away from St. Louis with a shiny 1.89 ERA in eight starts. AndrewCashner (4-7, 4.76) who was part of the seven-player trade with San Diego, is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA versus St. Louis.
St. Louis is 9-4 in the past 13 meetings and 9-4 in its past 13 overall.
The OVER is 7-1 in the past eight meetings with the Cardinals going 29-18-2 to the high side on the road. St. Louis is third in the league in scoring averaging 5.09 runs per game.
Jimmy Boyd
Twins -120
Minnesota is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the White Sox in Sunday's series finale. The Twins have taken each of the first two games of the series and are in a prime spot to finish off the sweep.
The White Sox have scored just 1 run in each of their last 3 games and are hitting a miserable .214 over their last 7 games. Their struggles will continue against Ervin Santana, who has pitched much better than his 3-9 record would indicate. Santana has a 3.78 ERA and 1.242 WHIP in 19 starts and comes into this one with a 2.53 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Chicago will counter with the struggling Carlos Rodon, who is 2-7 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in 16 starts. Rodon has really struggled of late, posting a 6.06 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Rodon will also be making his first start since coming back from the DL, so there's a good chance he won't be sharp in this one either.
White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 road games, 3-9 in Rodon's last 12 starts and 3-9 in their last 12 against a right-handed starter. Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series, 6-2 in their last 8 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-1 in their last 5 against a left-handed starter.
Frank Jordan
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -163
Toronto has won the last two games and seven of 10 while Baltimore has dropped five in a row as these two teams have flipped spots in the AL East with Toronto jumping into first place by a half game. Boston is right there also just two games back making this a three team race for the last two months. Toronto has won the first two games by a combined 15-6 and out homering Baltimore 4-2. This finale of the three game set is a dandy of a pitching match up with each teams ace on the hill Baltimore throwing 14-3 Chris Tillman against Toronto's Aaron Sanchez who is 11-1 on the year. Sanchez is 7-0 in his last 10 starts and 4-1 with a 3.56 ERA at home this season. In four July starts Sanchez is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA and despite a 5.73 ERA against Baltimore in two starts Sanchez is 2-0. Chris Tillman was on a four game winning streak before a loss to Colorado last time out, but is still 7-2 in his last 10 starts and Baltimore is 8-2 in those 10 starts. Tillman is 6-2 with a 3.12 ERA in nine road starts and in five starts in July Tillman is 4-1 with a sub three ERA. In two starts against the Blue Jays Tillman has 4.91 ERA, but has a 1-0 record. Look for both pitchers to go deep and pitch well, but Tillman will allow a couple runs while Sanchez allows just won in a 3-1 Toronto win.
Larry Ness
Washington vs. San Francisco
Pick: Washington
The Nationals won the first two of this four-game series but the Giants earned a 5-3 Saturday afternoon. Both teams are first-place clubs, the Nats leading the NL East by five games and the Giants leading the NL West by two games. The Nats are a modest 7-7 since the break but that is ‘light years’ ahead of the Giants, who are just 3-11 since play resumed, after heading into the break with MLB’s best overall record. Gio Gonzalez (6-8, 4.44 ERA) gets the nod for the Nats and Matt Cain (2-6, 5.95 ERA) takes the hill for the Giants.
Gonzalez has returned from the break to produce two quality starts, beating the Dodgers 8-1 on July 20 and then, despite surrendering just two ERs over 6.1 innings this past Tuesday at Cleveland, settled for a no decision in a 7-6 loss. The Nats are 8-12 in Gonzalez’s 20 starts of 2016 and that includes just 3-7 in his away starts. The left-hander is 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA in nine career starts against the Giants, with the Nats going 5-5. That’s hardly too encouraging but his mound opponent, Matt Cain, is still trying to find some form since coming off the DL.
Cain’s made just 13 starts this season , posting a 5.95 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and allowing opponents to bat .314 against him (Giants are 5-8 in his starts). He returned from the DL to make a July 20th start at Boston, only to last a modest 2.1 innings, allowing six hits (three HRs) and five ERs. He was slightly better at home vs Cincy in his next outing, allowing four ERs on six hits (another two HRs) in 5.1 innings. Cain owns a 5-5 record and 3.64 ERA in 15 career starts against the Nationals (Giants are 9-6) but was ripped for five runs in 4.2 innings at home against Washington back on Aug 14, 2015 (yielding home two HRs) in his last outing vs the Nats.
Cain is looking for his 100th career win in this game but the Giants are in a funk (3-11 since the break) plus Cain’s two starts since returning from the DL have resulted in him allowing nine ERs on 12 hits (including five HRs!) in just eight innings (10.13 ERA). No reason to expect Cain gets that 100th win here.
Jesse Schule
Colorado vs. New York
Pick: New York
Noah Syndergaard (9-5, 2.45 ERA) will toe the rubber for the New York Mets and he has pitched extremely well this year. In his last start, he pitched six innings and gave up two runs and seven hits which is the seventh time in his last 10 starts he has allowed two runs or less. He is 5-3 at home with a 2.36 ERA and is 1-0 against Colorado in his career.
The Rockies will hand the ball to Chad Bettis (8-6, 5.19 ERA) who pitched six innings and gave up two runs and four hits in his last start. He has allowed just three earned runs in his last two starts combined over 12.2 innings pitched and is 3-1 in July with a 3.38 ERA. The Rockies bullpen though isn't as reliable, and that could prove to be the difference here in New York.
Syndergaard is 4-1 during the day with a 2.27 ERA.
Jim Feist
Cincinnati at San Diego
Pick: Under
A pair of bad offenses meet at Petco Park, a huge stadium, tough on hitters. Cincinnati is in town with an offense ranked 20th in runs scored and the Under is 4-1-1 in the Reds last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Homer Bailey will start Sunday in his first major league game back from Tommy John surgery against Jarred Cosart and the Padres. Bailey recently tossed his sixth rehab outing, throwing 98 pitches -- 57 of which were strikes -- over 4.1 innings of work. San Diego is 4-1 under the total at home against a team with a losing record. And the Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in San Diego.
Chase Diamond
Cardinals vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins
Early game between the 56-47 Cards and the 55-48 Marlins. I love the Marlins to make the playoffs this season and picking up Andrew Cashner is a quality move. He is 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA but I think now with the Marlins his numbers will pick up. Cashner's first start with the Marlins you will see some extra push from him and the players to prove himself at home in front of his new fans. People are laying heavy early on the Cardinals but not me I love the Marlins better team and a above average pitcher.
Oskeim Sports
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -120
Philadelphia right-hander Jerad Eickhoff has become one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The 26-year-old owns a decent 3.83 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a 3.82 FIP in 21 starts this season, including posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP versus division opponents. Eickhoff is also 2-1 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four career starts against the Braves.
Eickhoff's success has been predicated upon a solid K-BB rate, together with vastly improved exit velocity suppression which is synonymous with control and command. Eickhoff's arsenal is well above-average based on swinging strikes and ground ball z-scores (plus offerings with his curveball, slider and sinker). In 2015, Eickhoff induced the highest rate of swinging strikes among any slider (minimum 100 pitches).
He posted a solid 3.25 FIP with his slider last season, good for 27th in baseball, and Eickhoff has significantly increased his slider usage over the last 2+ months. Rookie Joel De La Cruz, a 27-year-old right-hander who posted a 4.68 ERA and a 4.22 FIP in 57.2 Triple-A innings this season, toes the rubber for the Braves this afternoon. In 19.1 Major League innings, De La Cruz is 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA and a 5.20 FIP and 4.66 xFIP (14.1K%; 10.6% K-BB%).
The Braves are a money-burning 15-38 in their last 53 home games, 11-25 in their last 36 home games versus right-handed starters and 1-6 in their last seven meetings in this series.