Free Picks for Sunday, July 9th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
PADRES at PHILLIES
PLAY: PADRES -108
Just a couple of quick notes here. Trevor Cahill appears to back in good health, with a sharp enough effort coming off the DL earlier this week at Cleveland. Cahill was rolling before he got hurt and he should have a good chance to rack up plenty of swings and misses against the somewhat undisciplined Phillies.
Jared Eickhoff is returning from his own injury stint and hoping to put the start of the season behind him. Eickhoff made 14 starts before going down and never recorded a single win. The Phillies righty figures to be limited to about 75-80 pitches here, which means a strong likelihood of at least four innings from the shaky Phils bullpen.
Note that I have not played this game yet as I want lineup info before punching my ticket, but the Padres are the better team right now and they have what should be the better pitcher here as well. I’ll definitely be looking to play the Padres in the morning. Be sure to check my Twitter timeline for a final call as far as that goes.
Alex Smart
Pirates vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -157
Lester the Cubs southpaw starter today had his worst start since 2015 at home in this last outing, but he is still a strong 3-2 along with a stable 3.19 ERA at home this season,and ready and primed for a bounce back effort vs a Pittsburgh team that has averaged just 3.1 rpg in offense in their L/7 overall and on the year have scored an average of just 3.9 rpg vs lefty starters.LESTER team when he starts is 25-5 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse and 20-3 against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.
Hey guys I know Taillon the Pirates starter has been lights out in his L/2 starts, but my own pitcher power rankings suggest he is operating at an above average clip right now, and regression to the mean is now a strong possibility.
The Pirates are 1-5 in their L/6 vs lefty starter and 3-8 in their L/11 on the road vs a winning home team and 2-5 in their L/7 game 3 in a series. Cubs won the first game of this series and lost yesterday, but are a strong 11-2 off a loss, and 10-1 in Lesters L/11 home games vs a team with a below .500 record.
Brandon Lee
Brewers vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -148
New York worth a look as they host the Brewers in Sunday's series finale. Yankees rallied to win 5-3 yesterday, securing the win on a 3-run home run by Frazier in the bottom of the 9th. I look for that momentum to carry over into this one and it doesn't hurt to have ace Masahiro Tanaka on the mound. Tanaka didn't have a great first half, but has been trending in the right direction with a 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson has great overall numbers with a 3.20 ERA in 17 starts, but a lot of his sucess has come at home. In fact, Nelson has a 2.35 ERA in 10 home starts and a 4.62 ERA in 7 road starts.
Mike Lundin
Padres vs. Phillies
Play: Under 9
The Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres are the two lowest scoring teams in the MLB this season. The first two games of this series have seen just a total of 10 runs scored.
Here the Phillies hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (0-7, 4.93 ERA) who held the D'Backs to one run through six innings his last time out. Note that Philly still lost the game 5-1. Eickhoff has posted an ERA of 3.63 in three day starts on the season and he had decent success in two starts against the Padres last year, going 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA through 13 innings.
Trevor Cahill (3-2, 2.96 ERA) will toe the slab for San Diego. He tossed 4 1/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball at Cleveland his last time out. Cahill is 2-4 with a 3.40 ERA in 11 career appearances (five starts) against Philadelphia.
Under is 6-3-1 in San Diego's last 10 games and 7-1-2 in the Phillies' last 10.
Mike Lundin will be looking to improve on an already phenomenal 8-1 (89%) run with his premium MLB picks with two premium picks Sunday afternoon.
Marc Lawrence
Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
Play: Pittsburgh +161
Edges - Pirates: Taillon 2.73 ERA this season, including 2.31 ERA away… Cubs: Lester 0-3 last three team starts in this series… With Taillon 3-1 in his career team starts during July, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
Tony Karpinski
Padres vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -101
If you pay attention to the Phillies - you know that they got absolutely blasted by the vast majority of teams over the first half of games. Their terrible differential is a pretty big measurement for how bad they have been. But, Philadelphia can score some runs - 2nd to last in the league. San Diego cannot score as many - last in the league. Winner, Philadelphia.
San Diego needs a 3B to start hitting, very badly, Cory Spangenberg is only hitting around .212 on the road - plus they can use a RF that can swing the bat with any notion of confidence. San Diego is slowly sinking towards the worst team on the season territory. RF's Hunter Renfroe and Matt Szczur just cannot hit a ball right now.
Ben Burns
A's vs. Mariners
Play: Over 9½
A’s rookie Daniel Gossett (1-3, 6.23 ERA) was most recently rocked for five runs off nine hits with no walks across five innings in a no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday. Gossett would throw first-pitch strikes to just 13 of 24 hitters and has now allowed five or more earned runs in three of his five starts this year (is just 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA on the road.) The home side counters with Felix Hernandez (3-3, 5.04) who was shelled for six runs off six hits and four walks in a 7-3 loss to KC on Tuesday (five of the six hits went for extra bases.) Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that we’ll have a bit of a “slug-fest” in our hands in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Mets vs. Cardinals
Play: Mets +110
New York is showing some decent value here as a decently priced road dog given the pitching matchup. The Mets send out lefty Steven Matz, who has been sharp in his 5 starts since joining the rotation on 6/10. Matz has a 2.12 ERA and 1.029 WHIP. The impressive thing is 4 of the 5 starts have come on the road and he's faced the loaded Nationals lineup twice and the Dodgers once. Given how the Cardinals struggle against left-handed pitching (just .236 team average vs lefty starters this season), you could argue New York should be favored here.
St Louis will counter with Lance Lynn, who has a respectable 3.87 ERA in 17 starts this season, but is not in good form. Lynn owns an ugly 6.35 ERA in his last 3 starts. Cardinals haven't had much with him on the mound in early start times. They are just 3-11 in his last 14 starts during a day game.
Will Rogers
Angels at Rangers
Pick: Rangers
The set-up: The Rangers have beaten the Angels 10-0 and 5-2 the last two nights and now look to complete a three-game sweep of their AL West rivals on Sunday afternoon in Arlington. A Texas win would give the 43-44 Rangers a .500 record at the break, while the 44-47 Angels are just looking forward to Mike Trout's return, expected after the break. While neither team has a realistic chance of catching the Astros in the AL West (Texas trails by 15 1/2 and LA by 16 1/2 games), as noted often, almost the entire AL remains in the wild card chase. Surely, Texas and LA qualify, as the Rangers are just two games back of the AL's second wild card spot and LA only three back.
The pitching matchup: JC Ramirez (7-7 & 4.73 ERA) will start for the Angels and Yu Darvish (6-7 & 3.56 ERA) for the Rangers. Ramirez has done a decent job for the Angels in 2017, as LA is 9-7 in his starts. He is 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA against Texas including a win earlier this year in Arlington in which Ramirez set a career high with nine strikeouts in his lone starting assignment against the Rangers. Darvish looks to bounce back on Sunday, after one of the poorest starts of his career as he gave up 11 hits and seven runs in 4 1/3 innings against Boston last Tuesday. "There's nothing you can do," Darvish said. "You don't want to think about it too much." The Angels seem like a good bounce-back opponent for Darvish, who is 9-2 with a 3.45 ERA in 15 career starts against the Angels (Rangers are 12-3).
The pick: Darvish's great career success against the Angels includes a 2-0 mark this season (1.38 ERA) and he's facing a Los Angeles team that's scored just two runs in the first two games of this series. Darvish won't pitch in the All-Star Game at the request of the Rangers, who want him ready for the second half, as Texas has him scheduled for a July 16 start against Kansas City. First things first. Take the Rangers on Sunday.
Larry Ness
Baltimore vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
The Baltimore Orioles ended a five-game losing streak with a 5-1 win against the Minnesota Twins on Saturday. Baltimore was once 22-10 on the season but Saturday's win leaves them 41-46 (8 1/2 games out of first in the AL East) and the Orioles will be seeking the team's first back-to-back wins since June 25-27 in this Sunday afternoon contest at Target Field. The Twins own MLB's worst record at 59-103 in 2016 (also MLB's worst moneyline mark of minus-$3129), so the fact that the 45-42 Twins enter the final game before 2017's All Star break represents quite a turnaround. The Twins have spent time in first-place this season and currently sit a modest 2 1/2 games back of the Indians in the AL Central plus find themselves in a virtual tie with Tampa Bay Rays for the AL's second wild card spot.
Ubaldo Jimenez (3-4, 6.64 ERA) starts the finale of the four-game series in Minnesota on Sunday for Baltimore and will be opposed by Minnesota's Kyle Gibson (5-6, 5.82 ERA). This hardly represents a "pitchers duel!" Surprisingly though, the Orioles are 7-5 (plus-$330) in Jimenez starts in 2017 and Minnesota is 8-7 (plus-$279) with Gibson getting the start. Jimenez has alternated wins and losses his past four starts. Jimenez surrendered six runs in four innings against the Twins on May 22 in a 14-7 loss (he got a no-decision), making him 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 12 games and 11 starts (teams are 5-6) against Minnesota in his career.
Gibson is beginning to turn around a frustrating season. He snapped a streak of four straight losses to start the campaign when he beat Baltimore earlier this season (that 14-7 game game back on May 22 when Jimenez started for the Orioles) but he allowed six runs over five innings against Baltimore, part of an 8.62 ERA in his first seven starts. However, since that contest against Baltimore, Gibson is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA in eight starts (Twins are 5-3). Gibson is 2-1 with a 4.68 ERA in three career starts vs the Orioles.
The Twins have struggled at home in 2017 but the Orioles have gone 16-30 on the road this season and let's not forget that since the team's 22-10 start, the Orioles have played .345 (19-36) baseball. Take the home team.
Jim Feist
Oakland at Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Oakland has a weak offense and Daniel Gossett (1-3, 6.03 ERA) is struggling, allowing 10 runs his last 10 innings (2 starts). Batters are hitting .295 off him and he faces a strong Seattle offense. The Athletics are 14-28 away and 17-36 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Seattle is 22-10 when Felix Hernandez starts on 4 days of rest. And thee Mariners are 29-11 in Hernandez's last 40 starts vs. the Athletics, who are 21-49 vs. the American League West.
Rob Vinciletti
Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
Play: Chicago -155
The Cubs will look to take the finale and head into the break with momentum. They fit a large long term system that is 788-387 with a solid return on investment. They have Lester going and he has a 2.86 Era in his career vs the Pirates he also has home loss revenge on Pittsburgh and Tailon who won here back in April. Tailon has allowed 5 runs in 12 innings vs the Cubs. The Pirates hit just .226 vs leftys. Look for Chicago to take this one.
Jack Jones
Houston at Toronto
Play: Toronto -104
The Toronto Blue Jays have come alive here down the stretch of the first half. They have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall while scoring at least 7 runs in three of their last four. I look for them to take this Game 4 against the Houston Astros to win the series 3-1.
J.A. Happ is 3-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He has really been on his game of late, going 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last three starts. Happ is also 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA in seven career starts against Houston.
Brad Peacock has held his own in limited action for the Astros, going 4-1 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.347 WHIP in eight starts this season, and 3-0 with a 4.03 ERA in four road starts. But Peacock has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in one career start against the Blue Jays, and he's not on Happ's level.
Happ is 17-4 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in day games over the last two seasons. The Blue Jays are 15-3 in Happ's last 18 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is 10-1 in Happ's last 11 Sunday starts. The Astros are 1-13 in Peacock's last 14 starts with 4 days of rest.
Dave Essler
Seattle -160
Yes, I know it's more juice than normal, but obviously IMO Seattle is the winner. I thought about the RL, and you guys know I hate that with home teams, so -1 or splitting the ML with the RL is an option. Felix hasn't been Felix, but the only Oakland player with any success against him is Marcus Sieman, who's back from the DL. One player doesn't cut it, especially when you look at how poor the A's bullpen is. Seattle's pen has been solid, and Gossett has not. It's interesting that in five starts he faced Houston and the White Sox twice - but here I just don't see Seattle losing the last game before the break, at home, and losing a series to Oakland.
In the other games
The markets like Taillon this morning and I never trust Lester to when the RL comes out that's a viable option (Pirates RL)
I don't like Joe Ross and I do like Newcomb. Braves RL an over there are quite possible.
The market like the Astros (duh) but I don't trust Peacock to shut down Toronto - over, perhaps.
Boston and the Rays know the opposing pitchers' well so a flyer on the over is doable. Archer (IMO) has to win the game for the Rays (no bullpen per se) while Price may be able to be helped out.
Darvish isn't worth -200 against a team that knows him with a reasonable (Ramirez) starter. That could well be the public disaster play.
They seem to like Tanaka more than I do - perhaps because I do like Nelson somewhat. Brewers RL and over, especially if it gets to 9.
Rodon has been great and Freeland is slipping and that's evident by the overnight moves. Tough one for me, but I understand it. I have a hard time with CWS being a road favorite, however. Pass likely.