Buster Sports
Tigers at Indians
Play: Over 8
The Tigers play the Indians in what will be the final game for the first half of the 2017 MLB season. The starting pitchers are for the Tigers RH Michael Fulmer (8-6, 3.20 ERA) and he faces the Indians RH Corey Kluber (7-3, 2.85 ERA) The two starting pitchers tonight are arguably the two aces for each club (Sorry Justin) but for some reason they really have trouble with their division rivals. Fulmer has an ugly 6.98 ERA with a WHIP of 1.966 against the Indians in 4 starts in his young career. Kluber has not fared much better as he is sporting a 4.35 ERA with a WHIP of 1.304 in 18 starts against the Tigers in his career. These two starters have pitched lights out of late and the total for this is 8 at the time of this writing. We are going to be forever the contrarian here and play the OVER as we see the trend of these two dominate pitchers struggling when playing against each other continuing tonight.
Carmine Bianco
Los Angeles at Texas
Play: Texas -1.5
Darvish looks to rebound off a terrible one at home against the Red Sox last out allowing 7 runs in 4.1 innings of work and the Angels may be just what he needs to get back on track. Darvish has faced the Angels twice this season allowing 1 earned run in 13 innings of work in 8-3 and 6-3 wins. We'll lay the 1.5 here with the Rangers.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON (-105) over Tampa Bay
David Price returns home to Tropicana Field and that’s good news for the BoSox. The former Rays left-hander has a career 2.88 ERA in 89 appearances on this field and in his career he has a 2.95 ERA in domes. The Rays are just 11-17 against southpaw starters this season and Boston has been at its best in the first half of the season when coming off a loss, going 25-12 (+8.8 units).
Bob Balfe
Royals +1.5 +120
The Dodgers are sending a lot of guys to the all star game so they might be napping today. If we were not slumping in baseball I would go with the huge +280 money line this afternoon.The Royals have been hitting the ball well as of late and Duffy is a quality pitcher that can do enough to keep his team in a close game with Kershaw today.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +153 over SEATTLE
Daniel Gossett lacks a true plus pitch but average-to-above-average command of four average-to-above-average pitches allows his overall profile to play up. Gossett's above-average fastball comes in around 93 MPH and features glove-side run and stays low in the zone. He also has both a slider and a curve. Daniel Gossett has been all or nothing in his five big league starts. He’s faced the Astros twice, the South Side twice and the Marlins once and has two beauties and three disasters. However, he’s only walked three batters in five starts over 26 innings. The ERA is ugly but that’s because the sample size is small. This is not a bad park to put the ball in play and as long as he avoids giving up jacks, he should be fine. This is a starter that has pitched two great games, one against the Astronauts and one against the South Side and now the Mariners will see him for the first time. The A’s have seen Felix Hernandez about 2000 times but the king has not been very regal lately.
Felix Hernandez missed a couple of months of the season with a shoulder injury. When he’s taken his turn on the mound, he’s not been his usual self. It’s not a recent trend, either, as his velocity and stats have been fading for three years. In eight starts, Hernandez has been tagged for 11 jacks and he’s been tagged for five bombs over his last three starts. The Mariners have won three of his eight starts but one of those was very lucky because the M’s rallied in the ninth. Fernandez used to post lofty groundball rates but that is in the distant past, as he’s now surrendering an equal amount of everything (35% grounders, 30% line-drives and 35 fly-balls). That’s a weak batted ball profile. Hernandez’s swing and miss rate continues to fade while his K-rate is league average. Lastly, his performances against lefties continue to deteriorate as well. You want to get behind Felix Hernandez, go right ahead because he and the Mariners absolutely can win here. It’s a baseball game. However, we’re not ignoring the skills decline in Hernandez’s profile like the market is doing. That market is going to pay a hefty price to pay for the King’s past pedigree but even former Cy Young winners reach the end of the line and Felix is close to reaching the end of his.
Milwaukee +145 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yankees were smoked in the opener of this series and were in line to lose yesterday before a three-run blast in the ninth allowed them to walk off with a much celebrated victory. New York is a struggling team that got lucky yesterday but they continue to be priced like they’re still thriving. They’re not. Masahiro Tanaka was struggling miserably for a couple of months but his recent success makes him a strong sell high candidate. Tanaka now draws a Yankee Stadium start against a dangerous Crew team batting .273/.343/.516 since June 25. That’s the third best hitting line in the majors over that span behind L.A. and Houston. Tanaka has logged three very strong starts over his last four home starts but in this last game before the break, we’re going to respect the foe and expect less from Tanaka here.
There wasn’t much hype surrounding Jimmy Nelson heading into 2017, as he was coming off a dreadful 2016 campaign. However, he has been a pleasant surprise, sporting a 3.20 ERA through his first 17 starts. It’s no fluke. A declining capacity to miss bats in 2016 raised serious concern but Nelson has posted career bests in both strikeout rate and swinging strikes so far. A change in pitch mix—upped four-seam fastball usage by 12% while reducing his sinker by 15%—and an improved knuckle curve have been instrumental in the surge. He has also been much more aggressive getting ahead in the count and attacking the strike zone. That has taken his control from putrid to superb. Left-handed batters have given him fits in the past but that hasn’t been the case this year, as his command has drastically improved too. The pitch mix modifications are even more evident vs. LHB where he has not only changed his usage patterns, but also added a new split-change (Usage: +13% four-seamers, -20% sinkers). Nelson has maintained a healthy groundball % thanks to a whopping 69% GB% on the sinker and a 50% GB% on the curve ball. The substantial growth in his skills is reflected in his vastly improved xERA. Nelson has addressed all of his weaknesses and his marked improvement has been backed by his underlying metrics, so there is certainly reason to be optimistic that he has finally put it all together. That’s something we can easily get behind here.
Pittsburgh +142 over CHICAGO
Jon Lester draws in here at Wrigley and he’ll be facing a Pirates club for the first time since scuffling against them in back-to-back turns in April. The Pirates have seen and faced Lester plenty of times. Lester coughed up five runs in his last start and his recent outings at Wrigley have been shaky. Lester's ERA and xERA, although still solid, are his worst since 2013 and he’s been getting progressively worse each month. We have no idea how Lester will perform here but what we know for sure is we’re getting an inflated tag against the Cubbies. Additionally, this wager is not about fading Lester. Instead, it’s about getting behind Jameson Taillon’s skills.
We have written about Jameson Taillion numerous times this year, citing him as a major breakout target but he continues to be underpriced often. At some point the market will wake up to his talents but until that occurs, we’ll continue to back this stud at prices like this. Taillon has a rich arsenal. He’ll throw one of five pitches at any time and all of his pitches have movement. Taillon has 59 K’s in 63 frames. He also has a 13% swing and miss rate to go along with an elite 52% groundball rate. His ERA (2.73) and xERA (3.13) are lining up with one another and he appears to be getting better with each passing start. This kid is the straight goods and after missing two years due to TJS, he’s getting stronger and better. There is not a single flaw in his profile, as he has outstanding peripherals across the board (first-pitch strike rate, velocity, movement, pitch-mix, sequencing, K-rate, groundball rate, command and control). We’ve cashed tickets on this kid all year and expect to cash this one too.
Chicago -1½ +185 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
16-21 + 29.65 units
ASA
Royals vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 7
With Clayton Kershaw on the mound, it may seem difficult to pull the trigger on an over. However, there is much more to handicapping a match-up than just looking at one starting pitcher. The key here is that the Royals have been one of the hottest teams in MLB and so too have the Dodgers. With that said, there is no doubting the capabilities of each of these lineups. In fact, Kansas City has scored an average of 5.9 runs per game in going 7-4 in their last 11 games. The Dodgers have scored an average of 5.1 runs per game in going 8-1 in their last 9 games. With this total down at a 7 (because Kershaw is on the mound) we truly benefit from solid line value here considering the potency of these two lineups. Also, Danny Duffy toes the rubber for the Royals in this one and he has given up 8 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts. Both of those were road starts and both went over the total and we expect 3 in a row for overs to be the end result after this one is in the books for Duffy! The over is 9-5 in Kansas City's Sunday games and the Dodgers have seen only 4 of their 12 Sunday games so far this season result in an under!
John Martin
Braves vs. Nationals
Play: Braves +135
I won with the Braves +193 yesterday and would have won with them +243 on Friday had they not blown a 4-1 lead in the 9th inning. This team is way undervalued in this series against the Nationals, outscoring them 22-7 through the first three games of this series. Now we're getting another big underdog price on them Sunday. Sean Newcomb is a talented youngster who has gone 1-3 with a 3.58 ERA in five starts this season. I would argue he's the better starter here over Joe Ross, who is 5-3 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 12 starts this year. Ross has gone 1-1 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in four starts against the Braves and doesn't deserve to be this big of a favorite. The Braves are 5-1 in their last six road games.
Larry Wallace
Athletics vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -1½
Jean Segura will be disappointed to see the first half of the season come to an end, as he has gone 13-for-22 during a five-game hitting streak and has recorded five multi-hit performances - including three four-hit efforts - over his last seven contests. Gossett escaped with a no-decision against the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday after surrendering five runs over five innings for the second consecutive start. The 24-year-old rookie from South Carolina served up a pair of home runs in each of those outings but has issued only three walks over 26 frames in his five major-league turns. Gossett, who will be facing Seattle for the first time, is 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA in three road starts. Hernandez will be making his fourth start since returning from a shoulder injury that sidelined him for nearly two months, with all four taking place at home. The 31-year-old Venezuelan struggled against Kansas City on Tuesday, yielding six runs - five earned - on six hits and four walks over six innings of a loss. Hernandez has enjoyed the most success of his career against Oakland, going 23-9 with three complete games and a 2.68 ERA in 44 starts.
Dave Price
Brewers vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -153
Masahiro Tanaka has found his groove heading into the All-Star Break. He has gone 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his last 3 starts with 22 K's in 21 innings pitched. He should lead the Yankees to victory today against Jimmy Nelson and the Brewers. Nelson has been a beast at home but sports just a 4.62 ERA in 7 road starts this year. He'll be in over his head against this potent Yankees lineup that is scoring 6.0 RPG at home this season. The Yankees are 17-3 in Tanaka's last 20 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175.
Dwayne Bryant
Baltimore at Minnesota
Play: Over 10.5
Baltimore's Ubaldo Jimenez and the Twins' Kyle Gibson both own high BB%, and we like those extra base runners when betting Overs. Both starters also own xFIP's north of 5.00, which indicates to me that both guys are more than capable of getting lit up this afternoon. Both bullpens are subpar, and that's putting it mildly. So, we can expect some late-game runs as well. We win this bet if both teams get to five runs, and I expect that to be the case.
Bruce Marshall
Baltimore at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
Buck Showalter got a break on Saturday when Wade Miley gave him a solid start, but those sorts of bonuses have been few and far between lately for the O's, especially with Ubaldo Jimenez and his 6.64 ERA on the mound. The Birds have also lost 8 of Ubaldo's last ten starts. Kyle Gibson's form has been better lately and expect the Twins to bounce back after their offense was unexpectedly cooled on Saturday.
Jack Brayman
My free winner is on the Seattle Mariners on the Run Line, over the Oakland Athletics.
Keeping it short and sweet, as I like the pitching mismatch here.
Hernandez boasts 23 wins - his most against any team in the MLB - and a 2.68 ERA in 44 career starts against the A's.
Meanwhile, all three of the Gossett's losses this season have come on the road.
5* MARINERS -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the Cleveland Indians Run Line, in their series-finale with the Detroit Tigers, who dropped 10 games below .500. Yesterday's loss also sent them nine games behind the American League Central-leading Indians.
Cleveland won the first two games of the three-game series, outscoring Detroit 15-2, and will continue the onslaught against the outmatched Tigers.
That's because since June 8, the Tigers are 9-19, and the Indians have won four of their last six, and since June 15 they're 16-8.
It won't matter who goes for the Tribe, as Cleveland leads the American League with a 3.77 team ERA, and its starting pitchers have a 1.96 ERA in the last seven games.
Take the Indians on the Run Line.
1* INDIANS -1.5
Jeff Benton
After a first-inning, 3-run homer, it looked like Milwaukee and New York were on their way to a sure Over, but Luis Severino settled in, and Brent Suter was stellar, and the Brewers and Yankees held Under the total on Saturday.
For Milwaukee, they have now played Under the posted price in 4 of their last 6 games, while New York is 2-2-1 Under in their last 5.
I say these teams head to the first-half break with another Under logged.
Jimmy Nelson has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 9 of his past 12 starts, and the Under is 2-1-1 his last 4 assignments.
Masahiro Tanaka has survived a very rough stretch, and has been quite steady for the Yankees in 4 of his last 5 efforts, as he has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of those 5, with the Under 3-1-1 his last 5 trips to the slab.
Let's watch the pitchers do what they do, and let's watch as the Brewers and Yankees hold Under the total on Sunday in the Bronx.
2* MILWAUKEE-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Sunday is on the Milwaukee Brewers in the Bronx, against the New York Yankees. And in this one I do not want you listing pitchers.
If I told you in April the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Yankees would both be leading their respective divisions, would you have believed me? How about if I followed up by telling you one of those two teams would still be leading their division at the All-Star Break? You would have guessed the Yankees.
Nope.
Just as I explained the last two days - Friday with my 80-Dime Underdog Winner on the Brewers and yesterday again with the Brew Crew as my freebie, they're in first place in the National League Central, and would love to close the first half of the season with a wealth of momentum, by knocking off the Bronx Bombers in this series.
Milwaukee started by roughing up the Yankees on Friday, then lost yesterday, when the pinstripes evened the series.
Today is revenge.
Milwaukee is 17-13 over the past month, and currently is in front of the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs by 4 1/2 games after trouncing the baby bears failed to gain ground yesterday by losing.
The Brewers have won eight of 10, and they catch a Yankees team that was 38-23 on June 12, but is just 7-17 since then. They just can't seem to find a way to win, as 12 of those 17 losses have come by three runs of fewer.
Sorry, but the Brewers are the best value as a dog.
4* BREWERS