Free Picks for Sunday, June 101h, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TWINS VS. GIANTS
PLAY: UNDER 8.5
Matt Cain takes the mound for San Francisco today as the Giants look to salvage the finale of their series with the surprising Twins. Minnesota will counter with debuting big leaguer Nik Turley.
Cain has been wildly erratic this season, but in a weirdly consistent fashion. The veteran righty can’t get anyone out on the road. But Cain has been a plus pitcher at home. I’m banking in that continuing today.
Turley is the really interesting storyline here. The lefty has been around for quite some time since being drafted in the 50th round of the 2008 draft. Turley was selection number 1502 in that draft. I think it’s fair to say almost no one ever expected Nik Turley to be making a big league start in June of 2016.
It actually gets even better. Turley has pretty much pitched himself out of professional baseball. He ended up pitching independent ball last year, and my guess is everyone except Nik Turley figured that was it as far his major league prospects were concerned.
So what happened? To be honest, I have no idea whatsoever, but it sure appears as though this lefty has figured something out, and in a remarkably spectacular way.
Turley has pitched at two levels this season, AA and AAA. In 52.2 innings of work, Turley has recorded a mind boggling 84 strikeouts. That borders on unbelievable. And it’s not like he’s getting crushed when contact gets made. The lefty has surrendered only 33 hits and a couple of homers along the way.
I don’t know how long this magic carpet ride lasts for Turley. But he’s facing a Giants team that isn’t very prolific against southpaws and I’ve always liked lefties the first time through the loop, as they tend to be a bit baffling to big leaguer hitters that haven’t seen them.
I can see this one being a pretty good duel. I like the Cinderella story rookie and Cain has been terrific at home. Plus, only nine runners have crossed home plate in the first two games of this series, so it’s not like either team is crushing the baseball right now. I’ll go with the Under in today’s Twins-Giants series windup.
Scott Rickenbach
White Sox vs. Indians
Play White Sox +182
The Indians once again lost as a big favorite yesterday. That 5-3 defeat to the ChiSox dropped Cleveland to 1-6 this season when they are a home favorite in a range of -175 to -250. The Tribe have displayed such futility in this price range that a situation like today's is absolutely worth a look. The Indians Carlos Carrasco has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts! Also, Carrasco has given up 7 homers in his 5 home starts this season and he has notched only one win in those five home starts. The White Sox will have Jose Quintana on the mound for this one. I know he's had some struggles at times this season but he's off of a start where he allowed just 1 earned run in 5 and 1/3 innings and he struck out 7 batters. The White Sox southpaw also has a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Indians and, in his career Quintana 7-4 with a solid 2.77 ERA versus Cleveland. The Tribe have 4 losses in their last 5 games against left-handed starters and I look for them to drop to 1-7 this season in games where they a home favorite in a range of -175 to -250. So much line value here that the big dog ChiSox are absolutely worth a look in this one.
Stephen Nover
Minnesota at San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -111
It's strange to write this but the Twins are in a rare spot - fat and happy. Minnesota is 6-3 on its road trip and has won three in a row. The Twins fly back to Minnesota following this game for an 11-game homestand.
The key question is can the struggling Giants take advantage of this situation? They certainly won't lack motivation in danger of being swept at AT&T Park by Minnesota having lost the first two games of this series.
The Twins needed a fill-in starter for Hector Santiago, a bottom-of-the-rotation type who was put on the DL this week with a shoulder strain. The call went out to Nik Turley, who took an early Saturday morning flight from the East Coast to join the Twins in San Francisco. That leaves me to wonder if his body will have enough time to adjust to the time difference? This is a day game.
Turley is 27, which is a great age unless you're a baseball player trying to make the majors and have spent your entire career in the minors. That's the story with Turley. He's been in the minors for 10 seasons pitching for 11 different minor league clubs. The total rises to 12 if you count an independent league team. The Twins signed Turley to give them pitching depth in Class AA. That's not exactly high expectations.
But suddenly Turley, with better command of his fastball, has become a strikeout machine fanning 84 hitters in 52 innings. So the Twins - a bit desperate for pitching and with nothing to lose - are giving him a shot.
Turley is an unknown. Giants starter Matt Cain isn't. We know the 32-year-old Cain is past his prime having thrown more than 2,000 innings. Cain is a near auto-fade on the road with an 0-3 away mark and 8.40 ERA. However, Cain is a much different pitcher at spacious AT&T Park where his flyball tendenices don't hurt him nearly as much. Cain is 3-2 with a 1.82 ERA in six home starts. The Twins have never faced him.
The Giants have a number of veterans due to start playing better. I put Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt at the top of this list.
Given the circumstanes, I trust Cain more than Turley. Although the Giants' offense has been a huge disappointment they do have professional hitters who know how to work counts and take advantage of rookie pitchers. So I believe it's worth backing the Giants at home laying low juice.
Scott Spreitzer
Marlins vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -133
Pittsburgh ended a four-game losing streak with a 7-6 win yesterday as the Pirates scored three runs in the bottom of the seventh and Miami might have lost Giancarlo Stanton for awhile as he was hit in the wrist in the first inning. Ivan Nova has recorded 10 out of 12 quality starts this season and he has a 2.70 ERA at home. Nova threw a shutout at Miami on April 29 while giving up just three hits with seven strikeouts and no walks. The Marlins are collectively 5-for-42 against Nova with a miniscule .302 OPS and by all indications his knee inflammation has subsided. Jeff Locke has made two starts, including at the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday when he allowed four runs on four hits in 4 2/3 innings with four walks. Locke was 4-6 with a 7.16 ERA on the road in 2016 and finished with a 5.44 ERA and .298 opponent batting average overall. Look for Pittsburgh to make it two in a row.
Jim Feist
Mets at Braves
Pick: Under
New York has Seth Lugo (2.67 ERA career) on the mound making his first appearance of the year. He faces an Atlanta offense that is #17 in baseball in runs scored and slugging and the team is 5-2 under the total in division play. Starter Jaime Garcia (3.21 ERA) is having a fine season but has a 2-4 record with little run support. Garcia allowed three runs on eight hits while striking out four over 7.2 innings in Tuesday's 3-1 loss to the Phillies. That's now four consecutive quality starts for the veteran lefty, who has a 1.23 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 19:5 K:BB over 29.1 innings during that stretch but only one win to show for it as the Braves continue to offer him poor run support and this shapes up as a defensive duel.
Rob Vinciletti
Angels at Houston
Play: Under 9.5
This game applies to a solid long term 80% totals system that plays under for home favorites off a home favored win with 4 or less runs and 10+ hits vs a team off a road dog loss that had 2 or less hits like LA. The Angles are 6-0 under if the total is 9 to 9.5. and 10 of 14 vs winning teams. Houston is 3 of 4 under at home if the total is 9 to 9.5. Chavez for LA has 3 straight solid starts against Houston and Paulino for Houston is starting to pitch better.
Cappers Club
Twins vs. Giants
Play: Over 8½
The Minnesota Twins and the San Francisco Giants face off on Saturday afternoon, and the over has a ton of value in this one.
On the mound for the Twins is Nik Turley who has made a career in the minor leagues. He finally gets his first crack at Major League baseball and you know the nerves will be high. I expect that will result in at least a couple runs until he is able to settle in.
On the mound for the Giants is Matt Cain who hasn't had the greatest year. He comes into this game off a a terrible start in his last one. In five innings against the Brewers he gave up ten hits and five runs.
The Twins have a good offense this year and will make Cain pay again if he throws some meatballs over the plate like he did last start.
Some trends to note. Over is 7-1 in Twins last 8 Sunday games. Over is 20-4-3 in Cains last 27 starts during game 3 of a series. Over is 5-1 in Hernandezs last 6 games behind home plate.
Marc Lawrence
Miami vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Miami +127
Edges - Marlins: 7-2 on Sundays this season, and Locke 8-6 last 14 overall team starts… Philadelphia: Nola 1-4 last five overall team starts during June, and 0-2 last two team starts versus Miami… With Locke anxious to take on his former mates, we recommend a 1* play in Pittsburgh.
Alex Smart
Minnesota at San Francisco
Play: Minnesota +110
The Twins will send a pitcher in Turley a southpaw hurler that just struck out 15 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre batters while pitching for Rochester, the Twins' Triple-A affiliate, in his last start on Tuesday. Turley who has spent 10 years in the minors goes against a struggling Giants team that has been limited to one run and 10 hits in the first two games of the series and have struggled against LHP this season scoring an average of 3 rpg this season. Meanwhile, the Twins will be out to get their fourth road sweep of the season when they end their 10-game Western swing. They've already clinched a winning record on the trip with six wins in their first nine games and look like viable bets again today vs a Giants team that have lost 12 of their last 16 games in interleague play. It must also be noted that the Giants, starter Cain is on a 4 game losing skid, and is just 9-14 with a 3.35 ERA in 39 games, including 38 starts, in his career against American League teams.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 L/17 against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.SAN FRANCISCO is 7-19 against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game this season.MINNESOTA is 20-8 against the money line in road games this season and s 17-5 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season.SAN FRANCISCO is 7-15 L/22 against the money line in day games this season.
TJ Pemberton
Detroit vs. Boston
Play Boston -151
The Red Sox have now won two straight after beating the Tigers 11-3 on Saturday. The Red Sox are 6-4 over their last ten games and are behind the division leading Yankees by three games. Drew Pomeranz will climb the hill for the Red Sox on Sunday night. Pomeranz is 6-3 on the season with 56 innings pitched. Pomeranz carries a 4.02 ERA with 71 strikeouts and 19 walks. Pomeranz pitched five innings in his last start allowing one earned run on six hits. The Red Sox have won six of their last seven homes games when Pomeranz starts. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record while the Red Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Ben Burns
Royals vs. Padres
Play: Over 8½
The Padres have seen five straight games finish above the number. Those five games have averaged more than 13 combined runs. All signs point to another relatively high-scoring affair this afternoon. Junis has made two starts. Both sailed 'over' the number, each producing "double-digits" in runs. He's got an awful 9.71 ERA and 2.398 WHIP in those games. Lamet lasted only three innings last time out. He allowed nine runs, even of them earned. Five walks didn't help matters. He's got a 6.92 ERA in three starts. KC relievers have a combined 5.60 ERA on the road. SD relievers have a combined 5.05 ERA at home. Expect more fireworks.
Mike Lundin
Colorado vs. Chicago
Play: Colorado +168
The Colorado Rockies have won seven on the bounce while the Chicago Cubs have lost four straight.
The Cubs' Jake Arrieta (6-4, 4.46 ERA) has been hittable all season, and he's 2-2 with a bloated 5.70 ERA in four career starts against the Rockies. Colorado hands the ball to Antonio Senzatela (8-2, 3.56 ERA) who's having a terrific debur season, and he has won five of his last six decision.
The Rockies are going for a fifth consecutive win at Wrigley and the Cubs are as so often well overpriced in their capacity as World Champs.
Rocketman
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -150
The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon. Milwaukee is 33-30 SU overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 38-26 SU overall record on the season. Robbie Ray is 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA overall this year and 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA his last 3 starts. Arizona is 25-9 at home this year where they are scoring 6.4 runs per game. Arizona is scoring 6.6 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Arizona is 13-4 at home this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona today!
Brandon Lee
New York at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -128
The Mets are getting way too much respect here with this beign Seth Lugo's first start of the season, as he started the season on the DL. I look for him to struggle here and Atlanta's offense to do enough to get the win behind veteran starter Jaime Garcia, who is quietly having a great season. Garcia has been especialy good at home, where he has a 2.45 ERA and he enters this outing with a 1.27 ERA over his last 3 starts.