John Martin
Royals vs. Padres
Play: Padres -114
Dinelson Lamet will be making his fourth start of the season for the Padres. He struck out 16 batters in 10 innings while winning each of his first two starts, but then had one bad inning against the Diamondbacks on the road in his last outing to really inflate his ERA. He should get back on track here against the lowly Kansas City Royals, who are hitting .225 and scoring 3.7 runs per game on the road this season. Jake Junis has a 9.71 ERA and 2.398 WHIP in his two starts for the Royals, giving up 9 runs and 20 base runners in 8 1/3 innings. Kansas City is 3-12 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Royals are 7-17 in their last 24 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Padres are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Jimmy Boyd
Marlins vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -145
I really like the value here with the Pirates at home against the Marlins on Sunday. Pittsburgh will send out Ivan Nova, who is having a great season. Nova has a 3.04 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in 12 starts. The big reason I'm backing him here, is that he has a 2.70 ERA in 5 home starts. Miami will counter with Jeff Locke, who really struggled in his first road start of 2017, giving up 4 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks in just 4 2/3 innings of work. Locke hasn't been able to pitch deep in games and that's a problem for a Marlins team, especially on the road, where they have a bullpen ERA of 5.47. Nova's team is 44-18 against the money line when he's listed as favorite of -100 to -150 and 11-1 in his last 12 starts against the AL East.
Dave Price
Detroit vs. Boston
Play Boston -151
The Boston Red Sox just hung an 11-spot on the Detroit Tigers yesterday and should continue their success at the plate against Daniel Norris, who is 2-4 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 11 starts this year. Norris has never beaten the Red Sox, going 0-2 (0-3 money line) with a 6.75 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them. Drew Pomeranz is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Detroit. Pomeranz is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his last 3 starts as well with 26 K's in 18 innings.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +135 over ST. LOUIS
Adam Wainwright clearly isn't the front of the rotation anchor he once was but he’s priced like it here because he plays for the well-bet Cardinals and he’s going up against the Phillies. Like Wainwright, the Cardinals have been just as unreliable. Since returning from injury last season, Wainwright has nary missed a turn. He has even reached his pre-injury strikeout rate and his middle months were vintage However, there are more red flags than green ones. Wainwright’s command has been spotty throughout his return. His first-pitch strike rate is down to 55% this year and he’s walked 26 batters over 65 frames. Lefties continue to abuse him. The verdict is that Wainwright requires more TLC than ever before. His velocity is declining and his average fastball now is just 90.1 MPH, which coincides with his declining swing and miss rate that was at 10% in April, 9% in May and 8% over his last three starts. With a 4.82 ERA (4.55 xERA) and a 1.56 WHIP, this is not a pitcher worth gambling on but Aaron Nola is.
Keep close tabs on Nola because there is great profit potential in that arm of his. Nola posted a 2.65 ERA through 12 starts last year, which was supported by a sub-3 xERA and a 85/15 K/BB split. Nola’s terrific K-rate and groundball % remained intact during a mysterious hit%-and-BB-fueled collapse that followed. His season ended in a late July DL stint and he got off to a late start this year so he’s very much under the radar. In seven starts thus far, Nola has a BB/K split of 12/35 in 40 frames. His has walked six and struck out 20 over his last 24 innings. Aaron Nola’s groundball rate is 51%. His line drive rate over his last four starts is a league best 14% and an elite 17% on the year. Nola has his strength (94 MPH fastball), confidence and groove back and is absolutely one of today’s most underpriced assets.
HOUSTON -1½ +108 over L.A. Angels
As his 4.49 ERA and 1.32 WHIP suggest, Jess Chavez has struggled between Toronto last year and L.A. last year and this year. His biggest issue is a higher-than-usual hr/f that subsides in his more pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium but in HR friendly venues like this one, Chavez cannot avoid trouble. Chavez’s swinging strike rate is down to 8% and 7% in his last five starts. He’s made two career starts at Minute Maid Park and has a 7.94 ERA there after allowing 14 hits (three jacks) and 11 runs in 11.1 innings. He'll likely continue to toil in pitching's No Man's Land. In other words, he’s a swingman with a rotation spot for now who's more valuable to his big league club than he is to you.
David Paulino has just 17 MLB innings to his name. Last year, Pauilino went 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in 7 innings for the Astronauts and it was our first prolonged glimpse of this towering hurler, who rapidly rose from the Gulf Coast League. The early returns were solid thanks to pinpoint control and he's missed bats at every level. Limited experience (203 career IP; TJS in 2014) suggests patience is needed, but fantasy owners and DFS players should get in line. Paulino began the season late due to a bone bruise in his elbow but Houston saw enough talent in his three minor-league starts to bring him back to the majors. He appeared in three games (including one start) with the Astros in 2016. Paulino is tall and angular and set a career-high in IP in 2016 despite a team suspension and sore shoulder. His talent and upside are off the charts. He offers incredible arm strength that can pump 91-97 mph fastballs into the strike zone. For his size (6’7”, 215 pounds), he consistently repeats his delivery and shows good control and command. He has a very solid curveball in addition to a sub-par slider. The curve is his go-to pitch for strikeouts, but he can also deceive hitters with a change-up that features outstanding arm speed. It isn’t often one sees a pitcher this size have the arm action, clean delivery, and pitch mix that he exhibits. For his career, he has a 2.35 ERA, 2.5 BB’s/9 and 9.9 K’s in the minors. In two starts for the Astros covering 10 innings, Paulino has walked just two and struck out 12. On a Sunday afternoon in Houston, fans are flocking there today to get a glimpse of this rookie phenom and we’re betting he delivers. If he doesn’t, the Astros bats can.
Colorado +165 over CHICAGO
Colorado starters are going out there every five days and giving their team a chance to win. Like hitting, strong pitching is contagious and it’s been a case of next man up for the Rocks. Antonio Senzatela is 8-2 with a 3.46 ERA and everything for him is trending in the right direction from his K-rate to his swinging strike rate and to his groundball rate. While the underlying stats say that this rookie is in for regression, we’re not going to worry about that here. The Rockies are very simply playing too well to ignore at prices like this.
Hopefully, we’re not too late to this party after missed opportunities to cash in on the Rockies in the first two games of this series. Colorado has outscored Chicago 14-4 in the first two games of this series. Colorado is now 41-23 while the Cubs are 30-31 but every game in this series has been priced like it’s the Cubs with the 41-23 record. This market has not embraced the Cubbies struggles or the Rockies dominance. Only one team in baseball, the San Diego Padres, has a worse team batting average (.227) than the Cubs (.232) mark. Chicago’s win % is in the same range as the Angels, Reds, Mariners and Rays.
Jake Arrieta has been a huge disappointment so far thanks to a combination of a surge in fly balls and some tough luck. It doesn't appear as though the pinpoint control from 2014 and 2015 is going to return anytime soon, and the velocity dip is a little troubling. Arrieta is still generating whiffs at his typical level and his recent track record suggests he'll eventually start keeping the ball down but he’s not dominating and has six wins in 12 tries with a 4.70 ERA and a 4.01 xERA. There are workload concerns also given the 426 innings he threw over the past two seasons and prior arm issues. For now, we’ll call him a cautionary ace with too much risk at this price.
Minnesota +108 over SAN FRANCISCO
At home, Matt Cain is 3-2 with a 1.82 ERA but on the road but on the road, he’s 0-3 in six starts with an 8.40 ERA. Cain’s swinging strike rate in his last start was 4%. Overall on the year, it’s 5%. He’s throwing 87 MPH and now has a BB/K split of 27/42 in 65 innings. Over his last five starts covering 29 innings, Cain is 1-4 with a 5.28 ERA, a 5.81 xERA and a BB/K split of 10/15. His overall WHIP is 1.61 and 1.72 over his last five starts. The only reason that Matt Cain is pitching today is because the Giants are paying him 22.5M this season and they’ll pitch him until his arm falls off rather than pay him to sit in the dugout. Pitchers can get very lucky for an extended period of time and while AT&T Park helps every pitcher, the contrast or gap between Cain’s home and road ERA’s are in line to get much closer together than the current gap. Cain’s xERA at home is 5.17 so it’s not like he’s fooling guys at home but not on the road. Much like Bartolo Colon, who threw 89 MPH fastballs 90% of the time and got away with it for years until it exploded on him this year, Cain’s only chance at success is luck. Nothing more, nothing less and therefore he must be faded until the Giants can’t stomach it anymore. If he beats us here, so be it and he’s favored because the Twinkies are sending an unknown rookie to the hill.
There has been a surprising pitching storyline out of the minor leagues this year that not many saw coming. That comes from nearly forgotten lefthander Nik Turley. Turley burst onto our radar for the first time through the reports of his Southern League tying 14-strikeout performance for the Twins’ Double-A affiliate, the Chattanooga Lookouts. Turley is a 6-4, 195 pound Californian who was drafted by the New York Yankees in 2008. From 2008-2016, he bounced around the minors finding time with minor league affiliates of the San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox in addition to the Yankees. It was in 2016 that Turley found himself playing independent ball in the Atlantic League for the Somerset Patriots. In the early parts of 2017, Turley found success with the Double-A Lookouts, where in 28 innings over five starts, he recorded a 0.37 ERA with 45 strikeouts and only seven walks. He was then promoted to Triple-A Rochester, where in 28 innings over seven appearances (five starts), he had a BB/K split of 8/39 with an ERA of 3.49.
It’s unreasonable to use Rich Hill‘s career arc as a road map for anyone on account of how Rich Hill’s career arc is improbable. Nevertheless, the most basic facts regarding Turley’s trajectory through baseball bear some resemblance to Hill’s. For example: he’s a tall left-hander largely dependent on a fastball and curveball. Also, Turley made a brief visit to the independent Atlantic League (same as Hill) and finally, he’s been impossibly good following his return to affiliate baseball. Turley has recorded a 50% strikeout rate this year in the minors, which is a near impossibility. Turley depends a lot on a fastball-curve combo, the former pitch sitting in the low to mid-90s and, as with Hill, is often located by Turley in the upper part of the zone. There is always a risk when backing a first-time rookie but we’ll take out chances with a pitcher in his prime age (28) that is raising eyebrows over a decrepit one that has few starts left in his major-league career.
Will Rogers
Detroit at Boston
Play Over 11
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox are beginning to take advantage of their surroundings in Fenway Park, taking the first two games of their weekend series with the Tigers by scores of 5-3 and 11-3. They go for a sweep tonight on ESPN, having won seven of their last eight at their legendary home park. The Tigers have now dropped three in a row with the team's bullpen giving up 19 of 27 runs from the seventh inning on during the skid. Detroit is now 29-32 (4 1.2 games out in the AL Central) while the 34-27 Red Sox are three games back of the Yankees in the AL East.
The pitching matchup: Daniel Norris (2-4 & 4.48 ERA) starts for Detroit, opposed by Boston's Drew Pomeranz (6-3 & 4.02 ERA).Norris has not earned a win in his last six outings (he's 0-3 but the team 3-3), after allowing four runs (three earned) over six innings in a 5-3 home loss to the Angels last Tuesday. He made his 2017 season debut against Boston back on April 9 but did not factor in the decision after giving up three runs on even hits over 6 1/3 innings (Red Sox won 7-5). Norris is also winless in four career appearances (three starts) against the Red Sox, going 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA. Pomeranz has begun to turn things around, having won his last three starts. Prior to that, he had failed to get through four innings in three straight starts (7.36 ERA) but he won 5-4 at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, tossing five innings of two-run ball. That makes it three in a row, after victories over the White Sox and Texas in his previous two starts, while giving up three runs in 13 innings along with 19 Ks. Pomeranz is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three games (two starts) against the Tigers in his career.
The pick: Norris owns a 4.86 ERA over his last six and Detroit is just 13-20 on the road, allowing 5.36 RPG on the season. As noted, Boston has won seven of its last eight in Fenway, while averaging 9.0 runs in those seven wins (got shut out in the lone loss). Pomeranz may be 4-1 at home in 2017 but his ERA is 4.11 I'll play the Over
Bruce Marshall
New York at Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
The Braves were swept in Saturday's twin bill but can still manage a split of this weekend set at SunTrust Park with a win today. But the Braves usually have a chance with Jaime Garcia, who has a solid 3.21 ERA and quality starts in eight of his last nine outings. Meanwhile, Seth Lugo makes his season debut for the Mets after being activated from the DL.
Scott Rickenbach
Brewers at Diamondbacks
Play: Over 8.5
The first number that popped up on this total was a 9.5 but it was immediately bet down to an 8.5 before big bets were even able to come in. The point is that knowing where the odds makers heads were when setting a line is always helpful and I understand this will be a contrarian play with the public but this total has a great shot at surprising many. Even though the Brewers Chase Anderson and the Diamondbacks Ricky Ray have thrown extremely well of late, there are a number of key variables favoring the over. 2 of Anderson's last 3 starts have been at home and note that on the road this season he has a 4.36 ERA and the over is 4-2 in those 6 outings. 2 of Ray's last 3 starts have been on the road and note that at home this season he has a 5.67 ERA and the over is 5-1 in those 6 outings. Also, these lineups just faced these starting pitchers two weeks ago. The hurlers held the upper hand in those meetings but don't be surprised if the hitters fare much better in the rematch! The Brewers had averaged 6 runs and 11.5 hits per game in their last 4 games before getting shutdown yesterday. The Diamondbacks had averaged 8.6 runs per game in their last 5 games before yesterday's tight 3-2 win over Milwaukee. On the season Arizona is averaging 6.4 runs per game at home and the Brewers have a .450 slugging percentage versus lefties (ranks among tops in the league) and they have averaged 5.3 runs per game in match-ups with southpaw starters this year! Look for the over to improve to 10-5 this season in Brewers games against left-handers this season! The Diamondbacks had recorded 5 straight overs before yesterday's pitchers duel. Look for the "over trend" to resume here.
Wunderdog
New York @ Atlanta
Pick: Under 8.5
It was a pair of low scoring games in a double-header here yesterday, and look for more of the same today, especially by the home team. The Braves scored just one run in each of the two losses Saturday. New York has Seth Lugo (2.67 ERA career) on the mound making his first appearance of the year. He faces an Atlanta offense that is #18 in baseball in runs scored and slugging. Atlanta starter Jaime Garcia (3.21 ERA) is having a strong season, but has a 2-4 record with little run support. Garcia allowed three runs while striking out four over 7+ innings in Tuesday's 3-1 loss to the Phillies. That's four consecutive quality starts for the lefty, who has a 1.23 ERA and a 19-5 strikeout to walk ratio over 29+ innings during that stretch, but only one win to show for it as the Braves continue to offer him little run support. The Mets hit .244 as a team (#22), and Garcia is 29-14 UNDER the total at home against an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse.
Jeff Benton
Sunday's comp ply winner is the Predators to even the Stanley Cup Finals at 3 games apiece.
The Penguins used home ice on Thursday to blast the Predators, 6-0, and the home ice has been the key to this series thus far, as the host has won all 5 games contested for this year's Cup.
The streak of home ice wins between these teams has reached 8 in a row dating back to March of 2016, so I suggest backing the host in this one to even things.
Nashville is just a different team on home ice, as the Preds have gone 9-1 this postseason at the Bridgestone Arena, including a pair of wins over the Pens in which they have outscored the Penguins, 9-2.
Until we see a road breakthrough, your safest bet on the ice is to back the home team. Tonight, that happens to be Nashville.
Game 6 winner is the Predators.
3* NASHVILLE
Brad Wilton
Sunday comp play is for the New York Mets to lay one more beatdown on the Atlanta Braves at Sun Trust Park.
After dropping Friday's opener, 3-2, the Mets came back on Saturday and and doubled their pleasure, taking a pair from the Bravos. 6-1 in the opener, and 8-1 in the nightcap.
New York has now taken 4 of the last 6 in the season series over Atlanta, and they have won a whopping 15 times in their last 20 series games played in the state of Georgia.
Seth Lugo will make his season debut after 4 minor league starts. Lugo has a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament that may result in him shutting it down to get Tommy John surgery, but for the time being, he is up with the big club and ready to deal.
Jaime Garcia will counter for the Braves, and he has been about as good as you can expect, allowing just 4 earned runs over his last 29-plus innings, but he did take a loss in his Atlanta debut to the Mets back in April when he allowed 4 runs over 6 innings of work.
Mets feeling it right now, and today they make it 3 in a row over the Braves.
4* N.Y. METS
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Sunday is on the Chicago Cubs, who are hoping to avoid a sweep at home, at the hands of the surprising Colorado Rockies.
It's been real hard for teams to complete sweeps this year, and I think we're in a good spot to take the Cubs for a couple of revengeful reasons.
The Rockies have seemingly owned Chicago this season, thus far, they're 24-10 on the road this season and they've won seven consecutive.
Chicago, meanwhile, has lost four in a row, it has two four-game losing streaks at home this season and it is 1-5 against the Rockies this season.
Finally, with the pitchers, Jake Arrieta lost on May 9 to not only these same Rockies, but also to Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela. Arrieta allowed two runs and five hits in six innings - a quality start - and he'll be looking to avenge that loss.
All Cubs here.
5* CUBS -1.5
Jack Brayman
Looking for my fifth straight comp winner after hitting the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, over the Philadelphia Phillies, a 7-0 winner. And we hit it on the Run Line, the same place we're going to hit the Los Angeles Dodgers with today's free pick, as I'm playing them on the Run Line against the Cincinnati Reds.
After last night's walk-off win, the Dodgers aim for a sweep of Cincinnati, and I think this could be the easiest victory of the weekend. Los Angeles has won three straight and eight in a row at home, where it is 24-10 this season. It's the second-best home record in the majors, behind the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are sitting at 25-9.
The Reds, meanwhile, are 10-17 on the highway, having lost 16 of their last 21 while ordering room service. Cincinnati is also mired in a 1-7 slide against teams from the National League West.
Take the Dodgers on the Run Line here.
3* DODGERS -1.5
Doc's Sports
Detroit vs. Boston
Play Boston -151
Fenway Park is the site of the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox on Sunday, June 11, 2017. The probable starting pitchers are Daniel Norris for the Tigers and Drew Pomeranz for the Red Sox.
Detroit opens at +155 while Boston opens at -165. The Tigers have a 32-26-2 over/under record and a 29-31-0 run line mark. The Red Sox are 31-29-0 against the run line and have a 28-30-2 over/under record.
Valuable Detroit Tigers Betting Trends
The Detroit Tigers are 32-26-2 against the over/under
The Detroit Tigers are 29-31-0 against the run line
Important Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
The Boston Red Sox are 28-30-2 against the over/under
The Boston Red Sox are 31-29-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Tigers have a 29-31 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Daniel Norris has a 2-4 record with an earned run average of 4.48 and a WHIP of 1.58. He has 55 strikeouts over his 60.1 innings pitched and he's given up 68 hits. He allows 10.1 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.25. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.09 and they have given up 180 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .252 against the bullpen and they've struck out 167 hitters and walked 74 batters. As a team, Detroit allows 9.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.6 batters per nine innings. They are 25th in the league in team earned run average at 4.66. The Tigers pitchers collectively have given up 555 base hits and 273 earned runs. They have allowed 77 home runs this season, ranking them 9th in the league. Detroit as a pitching staff has walked 199 batters and struck out 443. They have walked 3.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.43 and their FIP as a unit is 4.54.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Detroit is hitting .253, good for 13th in the league. The Tigers hold a .432 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .333, which is good for 7th in baseball. They rank 16th in MLB with 8.6 hits per game. Miguel Cabrera is hitting .263 with an on-base percentage of .371. He has 45 hits this season in 171 at bats with 27 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .409 and an OPS+ of 113. Victor Martinez is hitting .274 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .356. He has totaled 54 hits and he has driven in 28 men in 197 at bats. His OPS+ is 106 while his slugging percentage is at .401. The Tigers have 514 hits, including 110 doubles and 76 home runs. Detroit has walked 229 times so far this season and they have struck out 513 times as a unit. They have left 416 men on base and have a team OPS of .765. They score 4.85 runs per contest and have scored a total of 291 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Boston has a 33-27 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.02, Drew Pomeranz has a 6-3 record and a 1.36 WHIP. He has 71 strikeouts over the 56 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 57 hits. He allows 9.2 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.65. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.11 and they have given up 153 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .227 against the Red Sox bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 193 batters and walked 56 opposing hitters. As a team, Boston allows 8.9 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.7 batters per nine innings. They are 6th in the league in team earned run average at 3.97. The Red Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 524 base knocks and 235 earned runs this season. They have given up 76 home runs this year, which ranks 12th in Major League Baseball. Boston as a staff has walked 150 hitters and struck out 575 batters. They give up a walk 2.5 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.27 while their FIP as a staff is 3.70.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .263, good for 7th in the league. The Red Sox hold a .409 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .335, which is good for 4th in baseball. They rank 8th in MLB with 8.9 hits per contest. Mitch Moreland comes into this matchup batting .276 with an OBP of .373. He has 54 hits this year along with 32 RBI in 196 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .485 with an OPS+ of 125. Mookie Betts is hitting .264 this season and he has an OBP of .341. He has collected 61 hits in 231 at bats while driving in 33 runs. He has an OPS+ of 109 and a slugging percentage of .459. The Red Sox as a unit have 535 base hits, including 109 doubles and 58 homers. Boston has walked 209 times this year and they have struck out on 409 occasions. They have had 404 men left on base and have an OPS of .743. They have scored 4.7 runs per game and totaled 282 runs this season.
Jesse Schule
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8½
The Arizona Diamondbacks have split the first two games of this home series versus Milwaukee, and Saturday's game was a pitcher's duel with the home side winning 3-2. I expect another close game here on Sunday.
Robby Ray will toe the slab for D'Backs, and he's struck out a whopping 30 batters in his last three appearances. Ray (6-3, 2.85 ERA) allowed one run on three hits, punching out 11 in 6 2/3 innings in a home win over San Diego his last time out. The Brewers lineup has hit just .138 in previous meetings with Ray.
The Brewers hand the ball to Chase Anderson, who is having a fine season in his own right. Anderson (5-1, 2.94 ERA) has surrendered 10 hits while tossing 21 2/3 scoreless innings over his last three starts. One of those games was a home win over Arizona, and he went seven innings, striking out 11 and giving up just one hit in that contest.
The under is 7-2 in Anderson's last nine starts with four days of rest.
Pro Computer Gambler
Twins vs. Giants
Play Twins +112
Today we have 2 major sports betting systems active on this play sports at least a 10% roi in a sample of 150 or more games per system. In addition, we have the ProComputerGambler 2017 MLB Raw Numbers (now at 401-339 +84.02 units) in agreement on this one.
Since 2004, small Sunday road dogs between -105 and +130 going for the sweep are a solid 35-19 +20.75 units. Active on the Mets and Twins today.