DAVE COKIN
MARLINS AT DIAMONDBACKS
PLAY: MARLINS -102
I would anticipate money showing on Miami here. Adam Conley has clearly superior data to Robbie Ray, particularly with current form in the equation. Both teams have admirable offensive outputs against southpaws, so I would not be surprised to see a healthy number of runners crossing the plate in this contest.
There’s a monster differential on the home-road records. Miami is still plugging along away from home at four games above .500. The Diamondbacks have been horrendous all season at Chase. It’s almost hard to believe that 11-23 home ledger, which aside from the hapless Braves is the worst in baseball, even poorer than Minnesota.
As for the pens, Daniel Hudson is likely not available and Tyler Clippard has worked back to back for ‘Zona, while all the key Miami guys had Saturday off, so any late inning edge should go to the visitors.
There’s lots of logic in play here, and we all know that doesn’t necessarily indicate what the result will be. If it did, the losers would be few and far between. But I see too many plusses on the road team’s side in this matchup, and with the price very acceptable, I will take the Marlins today.
Rob Vinciletti
Brazil -210
Brazil as seen below has won 30 of 42 in the series with Peru. The top two teams through the first two match days in Group B will look to book a place in the Copa America quarterfinals in the final match of the group. There is a chance that Brazil and Peru could both advance if they draw in this game, even if Ecuador win, and then it would come down to goal difference, with all three teams sitting on five points. Brazil will look to make a statement in this game. Play on Brazil.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians -152
The Cleveland Indians are worth the price of admission today as big road favorites over the Los Angeles Angels. This is probably the biggest mound mismatch of the day. Plus, the Indians have won eight of their last 11 overall, while the Angels have dropped five of their last six.
Danny Salazar is one of my favorite starters to back this season. He's 6-3 with a 2.24 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 11 starts. You know his stuff is the real deal when he's struck out 81 batters in 68 1/3 innings.
David Huff is no more than a fill-in starter for the Angels, who are desperate for starting pitching right now given all their injuries. Huff was roughed up for 5 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings for a 12.26 ERA in his lone start this season on June 7 against the Yankees. He won't have much success against the Indians today, either.
The Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians are 21-9 in Salazar's last 30 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Angels are 7-22 in their last 29 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Mike Lundin
Rangers vs. Mariners
Play: Rangers +108
The Texas Rangers have won 11 of their past 14 games and enter Sunday top of the AL Central, four games ahead of the Mariners in second. The teams have split the first two of this series at Safeco Field, but I like the Rangers in the rubber match Sunday afternoon.
Cole Hamels (5-1, 3.32 ERA) will take the ball for Texas. He's off a solid display against Houston which he held to a pair of runs in seven innings of a 4-3 win, not factoring in the decision, his last time out. Hamels recorded eight Ks while limiting Seattle to a two runs in seven innings of a 3-2 win in his season debut and the left-hander is 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in seven starts against the Mariners.
Wade Miley (6-2, 5.27) will take the ball for Seattle coming off seven shutout innings of four-hit ball against the Tribe. The 29 year old southpaw had struggled through recent starts though conceding a total of 18 runs on 26 hits and eight walks in 14 2/3 innings covering three outings. Miley is 1-3 with a 5.58 ERA in five starts versus the Rangers.
Rangers are 5-1 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter. Mariners are 1-5 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter.
Marc Lawrence
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Marlins -101
Edges - Marlins: Arthur Conley 2-0 versus A. L. West opponents this season, and 3.13 ERA and 1.29 WHIP away this season. Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray 0-3 in day team starts this season, and 7.14 ERA and 1.93 WHIP home as opposed to 3.06 ERA away this season. With Ray 1-6 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in his last seven overall team starts, we recommend a 1* play on Miami.
Martin Griffiths
Poland vs. Northern Ireland
Play: Poland -133
Poland and Northern Ireland clash at the Allianz Riviera for the opening match of Group C, with the Polish side tipped as favourites to win the match.
Poland enter the tournament strongly after an excellent preliminary stage in which they scored 33 goals, the highest of any team in qualification. A first-ever home win against Germany was among the highlights, while Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski netted a record-equalling 13 times. The Polish attack will undoubtedly be the driving force in their competition run, and should be enough to improve upon their two previous appearances in the Euros, finishing bottom of the group on both occasions. High-scoring friendly victories over Iceland, Czech Republic and Finland demonstrated Adam Nawalka’s squad are well-prepared for the Euros this time around, and should be able to overwhelm the Northern Irish defences.
While Northern Ireland begin the competition in excellent form, unbeaten in their previous 12 matches, they will almost certainly struggle this afternoon. The country hasn’t featured in a major tournament since 1986, and have mainly stuck to playing smaller sides in their recent friendly matches, such as Slovenia, Belarus and Latvia. Poland will be a considerably sterner test for Michael O’Neill’s side, and with top-scorer Kyle Lafferty doubtful due to a groin injury, it’s difficult to predict anything other than defeat for Northern Ireland.
In summary, I expect that Poland will be far too strong for the plucky Northern Ireland team, and will begin their competition with a victory.
Scott Spreitzer
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -113
The Bucs will look to snap a four-game skid, while also looking to avoid being swept at home by their NL Central rival Cardinals. Jonathan Niese has produced a 3-0 mark in his last five starts, while sporting a 1.74 ERA. His teams are on a 7-3 run when Niese starts against the Redbirds, and Pittsburgh, as a team, has won 15 of their last 24 at home against St. Louis, despite losing the first two games of this series. The Cardinals have been the hotter team of late, but they're ranked 22nd, 18th, and 22nd against left-handers in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. And yes, while the Bucs have struggled a bit of late, they still own MLB's second best batting average and rank 6th in runs scored per game. Mike Leake was roughed-up a bit in his most recent start against the Cincinnati Reds and I do expect a carry-over into today's outing. The right-hander doesn't strikeout a lot of hitters and he does have a hefty 1.50 HR/9 in his 12 starts this season. We'll back the Pittsburgh Pirates as they look to extend their run at home against the Cardinals to 16-9.
Matt Josephs
Mets vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8½
Zach Davies is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. He has won three straight starts holding the A's, Cards and Reds to just four earned runs over 20.7 innings of work. Davies has 18 strikeouts and three walks over that span. This is a dreadful Mets offense he's facing. New York has scored just 19 runs over their last seven games and don't have a ton of weapons in the lineup. The Brewers pen has ugly numbers, but with the addition of Will Smith, roles are starting to be developed. Steven Matz has a 1.67 ERA and a WHIP of 1.114 in five road starts with four of them going under the total. Matz did beat the Brewers at home a few weeks ago holding them to two runs and three hits in seven innings. The Brewers are hitting .242 against left-handed starters this season and have an inconsistent unit themselves. These two have played eight unders in their last 10 meetings in Milwaukee. I think this one goes under the total as well.
Dave Price
Texas Rangers +103
The Texas Rangers should not be underdogs today to the Seattle Mariners given the edge they have on the mound. Cole Hamels is having a huge year in his first full season in Texas. He's 5-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 12 starts, including 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 5 road starts. Hamels is also 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. Seattle. Wade Miley has been awful all season, posting a 5.27 ERA over 12 starts, including an 8.04 ERA in his last 3. Miley is also 1-3 with a 5.58 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Texas. He has given up 11 earned runs over 12 innings in 2 starts against the Rangers this year.
Jesse Schule
Los Angeles vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -119
The Giants are three games clear of the Dodgers at the top of the NL West, and the two rivals face off at AT&T Park in the final match of a three game series Sunday. Jake Peavy will toe the slab for San Francisco, and while he doesn't come in with great numbers, he's owned he Dodgers throughout his career. Peavy (2-6, 6.41 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits over five innings in a loss at St, Louis his last time out. His last home start was one of his best this season, going 6 2/3 innings, allowing one run on six hits in a 4-3 win over the Padres. The Dodgers have a team batting average of just .193 in a combined 145 at bats versus Peavy. The Dodgers hand the ball to 19 year old rookie Julio Urias, who is still looking for his first win. His last start was his best so far, allowing one run on three hits while striking out seven in four innings of work. A high pitch count (86) preventing him from coming out for the 5th, so he didn't get the decision in a 4-3 Dodgers victory. The Giants are 11-3 in Peavy's last 14 home starts.
Jim Feist
Phillies at Nationals
Pick: Under
Philadelphia brings a poor offense into Washington, a huge park, great for pitchers. The Under is 8-2 in Morgans last 10 road starts. Joe Ross is throwing well for Washington with a 5-4 record and a 2.92 ERA. The Under is 5-1 in Ross' last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Bruce Marshall
St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
If we're going to sink with the Pirates this weekend, we might as well go all of the way, as we still believe the Bucs can avert a sweep at the hands of the Cards. The most reliable Pittsburgh starter of late has been Jon Niese, who has allowed only four runs over his last 25 IP in four starts. .St. Louis starter Mike Leake has now allowed a whopping 12 homers in 74 2/3 IP and is off of a very shaky effort last Tuesday at Cincinnati when allowing six runs and ten hits in just 6 1/3 IP of an eventual 7-6 loss to the Reds.
Larry Ness
Cleveland at Los Angeles
Pick: Cleveland
Sunday is the rubber match of this weekend series between the Indians and Angels in Anaheim. Cleveland won 6-2 on Friday but Los Angeles, after blowing a three-run lead in the top of ninth last night, prevailed 4-3 to snap a five-game overall losing streak, as well a four-game slide against Cleveland. The 34-27 Indians lead the AL Central by three games over Kansas City and Detroit, while the 27-35 Angels sit in fourth-place in the AL West, (11 games back of the first-place Rangers). Despite Saturday’s loss, Cleveland is 8-3 in its last 11 games and on Sunday, Danny Salazar returns to the rotation after missing Wednesday's start because of shoulder fatigue.
Salazar is 6-3 with a 2.24 ERA after allowing just ONE run on three hits but FIVE walks while striking out nine in a season-high eight innings of a 6-1 victory over Kansas City on June 3 (his most recent start). "We just thought his recovery wasn't as good as we would have liked,'' Cleveland manager Terry Francona told reporters about the 26-year-old Dominican, who threw a side session Thursday (the Indians are 6-5 in Salazar’s 11 starts in 2016). He will be opposed by David Huff (0-1, 12.27), who keeps Tim Lincecum's seat in the rotation warm for one more start.
Lincecum is expected to join the rotation after Sunday's start with Triple-A Salt Lake, so this could be Huff's final spot start. The 31-year-old was called up from Salt Lake on Tuesday, when he allowed five ERs on eight hits in only 3.2 innings of a 6-3 loss at Yankee Stadium in his 2016 major league debut. Very few reasons to back the Angels is this one, so I won’t!
OSKEIM SPORTS
Los Angeles at San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -110
San Francisco veteran right-hander Jake Peavy toes the rubber in excellent form as evidenced by his 2.41 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over his last three outings. Peavy is also 14-3 with a career 2.50 ERA and 0.98 WHIP versus the Dodgers, while the Giants are a profitable 11-3 in Peavy's last 14 home starts and 6-2 in his last 8 outings during game 3 of a series. Peavy owns a 4.13 FIP at home this season (5.64 ERA) and has had better success suppressing the long ball at AT&T Park (0.89 HR/9 vs. 1.50 HR/9 away).
Peavy's strikeout rate has also gradually increased throughout the season - 6.65 K/9 in April; 7.24 K/9 in May; and a 9.00 K/9 in June. Peavy now faces a scuffling Los Angeles lineup that is averaging 4.2 runs per game this season (.231 AVG.; .301 OBP; .658 OPS), including 3.7 runs per game at night (.223 AVG.; .295 OBP; .645 OPS) and 4.1 runs over the last seven games (.189 AVG.; .298 OBP; .650 OPS). Meanwhile, 19-year-old phenom Julio Urias takes the mound for the Dodgers after throwing just 41.0 innings in Triple-A where he posted a 1.10 ERA and 2.88 FIP (29.7% K%; 14.3% K-BB%).
Before I continue, let's go back to the fact that Urias is just 19 years old! When Stephen Strasburg was 19, he was pitching in the Mountain West Conference. When Jacob deGrom was that age, he was playing shortstop for Stetson University. While there is no doubting the fact that Urias possesses a legitimate plus major league arsenal, he has yielded 16 hits and nine earned runs in 11 2/3 big league innings. He also faces a San Francisco squad that is 18-4 in its last 22 division games, 13-3 in its last 16 games versus starting pitchers with a WHIP exceeding 1.30 and 20-8 in its last 28 games overall.
With San Francisco standing at 12-4 in its last 16 home games in this series, take the Giants and invest with confidence.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -115
I can't remember the last time the Yankees lost two home games in a row to Detroit, and I don't see it happening today. Michael Pineda is MUCH better than his standard stats show. He strikes out more than a batter per inning, doesn't walk many, and gets a good amount of groundball outs.
Michael Fulmer has pitched extremely well for the Tigers. In fact, he did not allow a single run in his last three starts. Like I always say, "buy low, sell high," and "what goes up must come down." Hard to imagine Fulmer's stock ever being higher, making this a great "sell high" spot on him.
The Yankees also have a HUGE edge in the bullpen. Detroit's 6-1 win over the Yankees yesterday snapped New York's five-game win streak. I expect them to start a new one today.