BUSTER SPORTS
Oakland Athletics at Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds -115
The starting pitchers for today's game are for the Athletics RH Kendall Graveman (2-6, 5.49 ERA) and he goes up against for the Reds LH John Lamb (1-3, 4.74) Cincinnati has won the first two games of this series by identical 2-1 scores and we like Cincinnati to sweep the A's with John Lamb on the mound. Lamb has started to pitch real well of late. In his last 2 starts he has pitched 14 and 1/3 innings and he has allowed only 4 runs. At home this year Lamb has a ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 1.157. Graveman has had a rough start to 2016 and he has been especially bad on the road this year as he has a ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.821. With the A's losing all 7 games so far of their 8 game road trip, we believe they are not going to put up much of a fight today. Also backing our selection is the fact that the Reds are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Don Best Consensus
Baltimore at Toronto
Pick: Over
Baltimore starter Jimenez has a 6.21 ERA on the season and a 6.94 ERA over his last three starts. Two of the first three games of this series have gone over, and the teams know it will take 5+ runs to win this one. Both these lineups can hit, take the Over.
Sleepyj
San Jose -100
I'm still waiting for the Sharks to play the best yet in this series...I think it comes tonight in a must win situation at home..They match up well with the Pens, but I feel the Pens jumping out in this series has people firing big on the Pens...Line makes little sense to me here...Sharks will play the best game of the series tonight in a convincing win..I'm even thinking of laying the PL for a nice + price as well..Sharks come with some game tonight on the ice.
Brad Wilton
Sunday's comp play release is the Under in tonight's Pittsburgh-San Jose contest.
After playing 4 games in which they could not top 5 goals in any of the games, Thursday night saw an eruption, as the Sharks and Penguins combined for 5 goals in the first period alone!
That game wound up with just one more goal after that wild first period, so what that tells me is the first period on Thursday was the exception and not the rule in this series.
I say things revert back to form here on Sunday night and we see another Under unfold.
The Under is still 4-1 in this series so far, and 7-2 overall the last 9 meetings between the teams.
Penguins and Sharks hold Low in Game 6 Sunday night.
3* PITTSBURGH-SAN JOSE UNDER
Brandon Lee
Rangers +110
Texas is worth a look here on the road against the Mariners on Sunday. This is a great price to back the Rangers with their ace Cole Hamels on the mound. Hamels is 5-1 3.32 ERA in 12 starts and has been dominant on the road with a 2.08 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 5 starts. Seattle will send out the struggling Wade Miley, who has a 8.04 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 5.58 ERA in 5 career starts against the Rangers. Miley is just 2-11 in his last 13 home starts against division opponents and the Mariners are 3-11 in their last 14 home games after a combined score of 3 or less in their last game.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers +116
Detroit is showing great value here as a small road underdog against the Yankees on Sunday. The Tigers won yesterday's meeting 6-1 behind a a strong outing from starter Justin Verlander. I look for Detroit to have another big edge on the mound in the finale, as the Tigers send out Michael Fulmer against Michael Pineda.
Fulmer is 6-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 8 starts and has been lights out of late with a 0.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. Not only has Fulmer not allowed a run, but he's given up just 7 hits in his last 21 1/3 innings of work. Pineda has a 6.14 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 12 starts, including a 6.75 ERA in 6 starts at home.
Detroit is 22-12 in their last 34 day road games, 22-10 in their last 32 after allowing 1 run or less and 10-2 in their last 12 after a win by 4 runs or more.
Alex Smart
Penguins vs. Sharks
Play: Sharks -103
The Sharks are showing a lot of pundits this team has a lot of character, as they prepare to take another bite out of the Penguins and tie this series at 3 games a piece tonight in the Shark tank. The Sharks are coming off a 4-2 win over Pittsburgh in Game 5, and showed resilience , as the Pens threw everything but the kitchen sink at them. The energy expended by the Pens in the last game may not serve them well here tonight , as they will be exhausted, in a place that promises to be rocking with new found hope. San Jose 8-3 at home in the play offs this season played its best game of the series at home in Game 4, allowing just 20 shots in a 3-1 loss. and with what Im betting will be some key bounces tonight should send this series to a huge game 7 showdown.
Zack Cimini
Cardinals at Pirates
Play: Pirates -113
Sunday night features a common matchup between the Pirates and Cardinals. St. Louis has won the first two games and six of their last seven to jump ahead of the Pirates in the NL Central. The reversal has happened thanks in large part for the Cardinals getting offense to match their improved pitching. They've scored five or more runs in six of their last seven games. Yet, I believe Sunday provides value on the Pirates side. Jon Niese has been a pleasant surprise for the Pirates and should be able to quell the above average hitting we've seen recently from the Cardinals. Mike Leake on the other hand is coming off a blown 2-0 lead against the Nationals in which he served up three home runs in the sixth and seventh inning. Take the Pirates to payoff Sunday night.
Bob Balfe
Tigers +110
Michael Fulmer has been flawless over his last few starts and it helps that the Yankees have no prior looks against him which makes it really tough for hitters. Michael Pineda has so much potential, but continues to struggle this season for the Yankees. Look for Fulmer to come back down to earth today just a bit, but for Detroit to still grab the win.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Nationals to complete the weekend sweep over the Phillies, as the Nats once again cover on the Run Line.
Washington took Friday's game by 3 runs, and they put the hammer down on the Phillies again on Saturday by another lopsided margin. Might as well roll with Washington again on the Run Line for Sunday, as each of the last 4 wins by Washington in this year's series have come by 2 runs or better.
The Phillies have now lost 3 in a row, and 8 of their last 11, and all of the losses have been by 2 runs or more. Philly starter Adam Morgan is on an 0-3 slide with an ERA of 8.44, so you know full well the Washington bats will be active this afternoon.
Nationals starter Joe Ross is 2-0 over his last 3 with an ERA of 3.50. Expect him to keep the Philly bats quiet.
Go ahead and lay the run-and-a-half with Washington on Sunday over Philadelphia.
3* WASHINGTON -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 67-59 run with free picks: Boston (-1', -115) at MINNESOTA
The STORYLINE in this game today - Sad, how bad the Minnesota Twins have dropped off. They are 3-9 over their last 12 games, while the pitching staff has yielded an average of 6.6 runs in that span. Today at home, the Crimson Hose are going to take advantage of this team and destroy the struggling Twins.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Rick Porcello and Pat Dean. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play. That's because Porcello has three straight no-decisions but showed resilience by pitching in and out of trouble in all of them. His prowess helped diffuse a powerful Giants lineup his last time out.
BOTTOM LINE is - Meanwhile, adding to the Twins' horrific pitching numbers, Dean has struggled his last two times out, posting a combined 7.71 ERA over 9-1/3 innings. He is in after allowing four runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Marlins on Tuesday. He'll get rocked today.
2* RED SOX -1.5
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit +106 over N.Y. YANKEES
Michael Pineda’s ERA is due for a correction. There have been many articles written about him recently, including this one, because his skills are so good. Analytics people are studying everything from his release point to the angles of his delivery. Pineda has an outstanding BB/K split of 17/71 over 67 innings but he’s not keeping the ball down in the zone. Pineda owns a horrible 7.80 ERA and 1.50 WHIP against RH bats and a 5.79 ERA and 1.84 WHIP vs. LHers. His stats have been sabotaged by a 51% strand rate and 23% hr/f against righties, as well as a 47% hit rate against lefties. Pineda is a great buy low target at home but not at Yankee Stadium, where his confidence is low and where he gives up a ton of jacks.
Michael Fulmer is emerging as a starter with breakout potential. No starter in the AL has posted better skills against righties than Fulmer has. In addition, only Jose Fernandez has a higher strikeout rate vs. RHers than Fulmer's 12.9 K’s/9. A strikeout pitch against LH bats (5.3 K’s/9) is the biggest missing piece to a breakout. He is getting a 15%+ swing and miss rate on two off-speed pitches and his 95-mph four-seam fastball is generating more swings-and-misses than that type of pitch normally does. There's a lot to like here including the tag.
Miami +102 over ARIZONA
Adam Conley impressed scouts during spring training and he’s about to make a big splash on the MLB scene. Conley has quietly put together a great season that is getting better with each passing start. His 3.76 ERA is decent but it’s headed for an even better number. Conley has 65 K’s in 65 innings. His other peripherals suggest big reasons for optimism too. Conley’s top-tier strikeout rate comes with the support of a 13% SwK% (swing and miss rate) too. Before giving up two jacks at Target Field in his last start, Conley had not been taken yard in seven straight starts. He’s been pitching deep into games and has a 4/17 BB/K split over his last two starts over 12.2 innings. Adam Conley should not be a dog to Robbie Ray and the Snakes.
It may surprise you to learn that the Fish have five .300 hitters in their lineup every day and six when Ichiro Suzuki plays. That does not include Glencario Stanton, who figures to greatly improve upon his .195 batting average. This strong lineup now gets a crack at Robbie Ray. Ray has been an excellent source of strikeouts but it hasn't been enough to make up for his ugly ratios. Ray is getting more swinging strikes this season, but not quite enough to support his elite K-Rate to this point. Walks have been a major problem for him with 31 already in 61 innings but more importantly, he’s fallen behind in the count to just over 50% of all hitters that he’s faced. Ray has also surrendered 10 jacks over his last eight starts. His splits reveal troubling signs. Ray has been knocked around by right-handers, surrendering a .912 OPS and nine home runs in 220 plate appearances. Also, he has a 7.45 ERA in six home starts, and really struggles as he works deeper into games (.534 OPS first time through order, .897 second time through, 1.228 third time). He’s a pitcher worth backing when being offered a price but as the chalk, he has zero appeal against a lineup like the one he’ll face here.