Free Picks for Sunday, June 18th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
DIAMONDBACKS AT PHILLIES
PLAY: DIAMONDBACKS -145
Robbie Ray has turned the proverbial corner for the Diamondbacks. The lefty is on a major roll right now. Ray will still have the occasional game where his control foes awry, and that’s when he’ll have some trouble. But Ray has shown meaningful improvement in this category, and the Phillies definitely swing and miss more than most teams.
Arizona also has swing and miss tendencies. But that might not be a big problem for them today as they go against Phillies rookie Ben Lively. The righty has done pretty well in his first three big league starts. But one red flag for Lively is a microscopic K rate. Lively has punched out only five opposing hitters in 21 innings. That’s an alarmingly low rate for a guy who appears to be an extreme fly ball pitcher.
I give Arizona a good chance to launch a couple of long ones against Lively today. So unless Ray suddenly comes up with a clunker, this looks like a good game for the visitors. Bigger price than I’m genuinely comfortable with, but the Diamondbacks are the choice for the Sunday free play.
Scott Rickenbach
White Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: White Sox +165
J.A. Happ is coming off of a great start for the Blue Jays but he had been shaky in his prior outings and, in fact, had allowed 8 homers in his 5 prior starts. He now faces a White Sox team that is hitting .294 against left-handed pitchers this season. That is good for the #1 spot out of all 30 teams in the majors. Also, the White Sox are hot with 5 wins in their last 6 games and they've averaged 7 runs per game during this hot stretch. Although James Shields is returning from the DL for this start, he did pitch well in his minor league rehabilitation assignment at the AAA level. Also, the veteran was off to a good start this season with a 1.62 ERA in his first 3 starts with the White Sox this season before landing on the disabled list. The Blue Jays struggled again at the plate yesterday. Toronto is now averaging just 3.2 runs per game in their last 12 games. Including yesterday's upset, the White Sox continue to perform well in the big dog role while the Blue Jays are struggling as a big home fave so far this season. Once again, the Jays are over-priced here. Look for the hotter team, the White Sox, to improve to a fantastic 13-7 against left-handed starters on the season.
Scott Spreitzer
Tampa Bay vs. Detroit
Play:Tampa Bay +101
Buck Farmer was back to his old self after a couple of unlikely outings in which he won two games against the Angels and White Sox while allowing no runs. Farmer came into the season with an 0-6 career record and he showed that form when he was knocked out in the third inning after allowing six runs on nine hits, including two homers, in 2 1/3 innings against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. The Tigers will face rookie Jacob Faria, who has won his first two career starts in impressive fashion giving up just two runs on nine hits with 13 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings against the White Sox and Blue Jays. Tampa Bay has won four of the six meetings this year following Saturday's 3-2 win, which snapped a three-game losing streak, but the Rays still have won seven of their last 11 games overall. We'll back them here.
Ben Burns
Red Sox vs. Astros
Play: Under 9
Boston/Houston are a couple of the highest-scoring teams in the league and both of these starting pitchers have struggled at times this year. That’s why this total is as large as it is. However, I feel that the value swings the other way on Sunday night as I look for David Price and Joe Musgrove to battle into the latter innings. Price (1-1, 5.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) gave up three runs off four hits and four walks while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against Phildalelphia on Tuesday. Price is still working his way back from his elbow injury, but his velocity is actually up slightly from last season. Musgrove (4-4, 4.89 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) started the year slowly, but has steadily been progressing. Like his counterpart, he also returned from injury in his last start and he’d go on to give up two runs off five hits and one walk over 4.1 innings (Musgrove has now posted a quality start in four of his last five outings). Both pitchers have been trending in the correct direction, so recent performance suggests a pitchers duel on Sunday night. Consider the under.
Marc Lawrence
Royals vs. Angels
Play: Royals -105
Edges - Royals: Vargas 9-4 with 2.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP team starts this season… Angels: Ramierz 7.03 ERA last three starts. With Vargas 3-0 against A.L. West foes this season, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Doc's Sports
Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Mets -147
The Washington Nationals head to Citi Field on Sunday, June 18, 2017 to take on the New York Mets. The expected starting pitchers are Joe Ross for the Nationals and Jacob deGrom for the Mets.
The odds for this matchup have Washington at +133 and New York at -143. The Nationals have a 34-30-3 over/under mark and a 34-33-0 run line record. The Mets are 28-38-0 against the run line and have a 39-19-8 over/under record.
Valuable Washington Nationals Betting Trends
The Washington Nationals are 34-30-3 against the over/under
The Washington Nationals are 34-33-0 against the run line
Important New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets are 39-19-8 against the over/under
The New York Mets are 28-38-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Nationals have a 41-26 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Joe Ross has a 3-2 record with an earned run average of 6.39 and a WHIP of 1.53. He has 43 strikeouts over his 43.2 innings pitched and he's given up 57 hits. He allows 11.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.83. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.21 and they have given up 198 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .268 against the bullpen and they've struck out 180 hitters and walked 67 batters. As a team, Washington allows 8.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. They are 11th in the league in team earned run average at 4.17. The Nationals pitchers collectively have given up 566 base hits and 279 earned runs. They have allowed 88 home runs this season, ranking them 11th in the league. Washington as a pitching staff has walked 200 batters and struck out 613. They have walked 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.2 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.27 and their FIP as a unit is 4.10.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Washington is hitting .276, good for 3rd in the league. The Nationals hold a .475 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .341, which is good for 3rd in baseball. They rank 2nd in MLB with 9.7 hits per game. Bryce Harper is hitting .320 with an on-base percentage of .425. He has 72 hits this season in 225 at bats with 51 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .618 and an OPS+ of 169. Daniel Murphy is hitting .344 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .393. He has totaled 86 hits and he has driven in 45 men in 250 at bats. His OPS+ is 147 while his slugging percentage is at .564. The Nationals have 653 hits, including 134 doubles and 103 home runs. Washington has walked 229 times so far this season and they have struck out 516 times as a unit. They have left 473 men on base and have a team OPS of .816. They score 5.52 runs per contest and have scored a total of 370 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
New York has a 30-36 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.33, Jacob deGrom has a 5-3 record and a 1.40 WHIP. He has 100 strikeouts over the 81 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 79 hits. He allows 8.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.05. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.76 and they have given up 249 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .262 against the Mets bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 257 batters and walked 109 opposing hitters. As a team, New York allows 9.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings. They are 25th in the league in team earned run average at 4.89. The Mets pitchers as a team have surrendered 639 base knocks and 327 earned runs this season. They have given up 92 home runs this year, which ranks 8th in Major League Baseball. New York as a staff has walked 251 hitters and struck out 591 batters. They give up a walk 3.8 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.48 while their FIP as a staff is 4.55.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .246, good for 22nd in the league. The Mets hold a .439 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .319, which is good for 21st in baseball. They rank 19th in MLB with 8.5 hits per contest. Yoenis Cespedes comes into this matchup batting .293 with an OBP of .379. He has 24 hits this year along with 15 RBI in 82 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .622 with an OPS+ of 159. Michael Conforto is hitting .286 this season and he has an OBP of .406. He has collected 56 hits in 196 at bats while driving in 36 runs. He has an OPS+ of 157 and a slugging percentage of .577. The Mets as a unit have 560 base hits, including 123 doubles and 98 homers. New York has walked 232 times this year and they have struck out on 508 occasions. They have had 449 men left on base and have an OPS of .758. They have scored 4.88 runs per game and totaled 322 runs this season.
John Ryan
Los Angeles at Cincinnati
Los Angeles -168
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons.
So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Reds are just 7-22 (-14.2 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.
Reds are on a massive losing streak now reaching eight games. Reds had an 8-game losing streak in 2016 and they lost three more before winning a game. Including the 2015 season, the Reds have lost the ninth game following an 8-game losing streak FOUR times.
Methodology Discussion Points
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dodgers.
Brandon Shively
Miami vs. Atlanta
Pick: Over 9.5
The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves both have bad bullpens. I don't trust Jose Urena or Mike Foltynewicz to pitch deep into this game either. I think we see a lot of chances to score for both teams throughout this game.
The hot weather in Atlanta is making the ball carry very well in this park. The new park in Atlanta is more hitter-friendly as well.
I think this game gets into the double digits.
Bruce Marshall
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Pick: Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay continues to surprise and Sunday might be spot to take another look at the Rays if rookie starter Jacob Faria is as good as he looked when winning his first starts and posting a 1.42 ERA in the process. Meanwhile Tiger starter Buck Farmer is off of an extremely difficult outing last Tuesday vs. Arizona, allowing 6 runs and 9 hits in just 2 1/3 IP of an eventual 7-6 loss.
Jim Feist
Red Sox at Astros
Pick: Under
Boston is one of the worst home run hitting teams in baseball, 5-0 under against the AL West. Both teams have strong bullpen arms and the Red Sox have lefty David Price starting, with 21 Ks in 23 innings and batters hitting .200 off him. Houston has strong defense in the field, 33-16-6 under the total at home against a team with a winning record. Starter Joe Musgrove has allowed 2 runs his last two starts (11+ innings).
Jeff Benton
Sunday's comp winner is the Over in the Padres-Brewers series finale.
Both teams have been on pretty pronounced Over runs, as both games this weekend have landed Over the total, and 5 of the last 7 overall in this series have also played Over the posted price.
San Diego is now 11-2-1 Over the total their last 14 games played!
Milwaukee has not played Overs at that clip, but 8-2 Over in their last 10 is nothing to snivel about.
Luis Perdomo has seen his last pair of starts, and 4 of his last 6 starts play Over the total, while Jimmy Nelson has seen the Over go 2-1-1 in his last 4 starts.
The bats have been making plenty of contact this weekend, so why go against the grain?
Padres-Brewers Over.
3* SAN DIEGO-MILWAUKEE OVER
Jack Brayman
Now on a 7-4 run with my complimentary plays. Let's head to Toronto for this blowout, as the Blue Jays will devour Chicago's James Shields. Due to the price on this one, I'm going to play this on the Run Line.
That's because Shields is making his return from his very first stint on the disabled list, where he was shelved due to a strained right lat. Now, word is he reached 90 pitches in his last rehab outing for Triple-A Charlotte.
The veteran righty, who is hoping for a successful comeback, said he should have no pitch limit in his Major League return. But the problem is the place he's playing the and the lineup he's facing.
Toronto, which ranks 24th overall this season with a .243 batting average, is 13th in this league with 46 home runs at home.
Now, as for the White Sox lineup, it will struggle against Happ, who finally emerged in his last start, on June 11, when he held Seattle scoreless over six innings and struck out eight.
I know home runs were an issue for Happ earlier this season, but he was also dealing with aches and pains, and is now firing at 100 percent health and with no restrictions.
Happ dominates, Shields struggles, and the Blue Jays roll.
5* BLUE JAYS -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free play for today is on the Texas Rangers, as they're going to annihilate the Seattle Mariners - and it has nothing to do with the pitchers, so don't bother worrying.
Nobody in the American League West looks as if it can catch the Major League-leading Houston Astros, but the Rangers are the team residing in second place, 10.5 games back.
But when you get down to it, the Rangers are the hottest team in the division, having won two straight and eight of 10. That run has helped them improve to 20-14 at home, too, and that simply doesn't bode well for the Mariners.
Seattle comes in mired in a three-game slide, it has lost seven of 10 and it is 13-24 on the highway after yesterday's 10-4 thumping here at the hands of the Rangers.
What shocks me is Seattle is seventh in the majors, with a .288 batting average in June, but it just can't seem to win. The pitching staff is 8-8 because of a 5.27 ERA.
Texas, on the other hand, has a 4.27 ERA this month - ninth in the league - and the Rangers also rank ninth overall this season with a .266 batting average at home.
All signals point to the Rangers winning this game big.
4* RANGERS -1.5
Eric Schroeder
Other than the Raiders leaving Oaktown, things in that part of the Bay Area are pretty good right now.
The Warriors are back on top of the NBA world, they celebrated with locals during a parade and are currently in Las Vegas celebrating at clubs, the Electric Daisy Carnival and at Ward-Kovalev 2. And on the baseball diamond, though the Athletics are sitting in the basement of the American League West, they've won three straight at the expense of the New York Yankees, and head into Sunday's matinee in a good spot to make it four in a row.
Fact is, though we have two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum, the A's are playing better this weekend.
The Yankees are sitting atop the American League East, but their arch-rivals, the Boston Red Sox, are right there with them and they're feeling the heat. The pressure is seemingly getting to New York.
The Yankees are mired in a season-high five-game losing streak, during which they've been outscored 30-22. It's not necessarily the hitting that's plagued them, but more so its struggling pitching staff.
New York lost the first two of this five-game slide in Anaheim to the Angels, and at this point can't wait to get home. The Yankees had four regulars out of the lineup Friday night, two due to a scheduled day off. Last night Aaron Hicks remained out, and could only get a pinch-hit strikeout from Gary Sanchez.
The A's have a nice little momentum going, while the Yankees are sliding quick, and want to get back to the Bronx so they can also get back to their winning ways.
I'm not listing either pitcher in this one, as I'll simply ride the momentum and play the value price with this one.
3* ATHLETICS