Brad Wilton
Sunday's comp play release is the Over in the Cards-O's interleague "bird battle" from Camden Yards.
The ball has been flying all over this weekend, as Friday's meeting saw the Redbirds score 11 of the 13 combined runs, while yesterday's showdown featured a combined 22 runs plated!
More of the same today with Lance Lynn and Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound.
St. Louis has played 5 straight and 6 of their last 7 games Over the total, while Baltimore has gone 7-2 Over the total in their last 9 games contested.
Lynn has made 13 season starts this year, and 8 of those 13 have landed Over the total, while Jiminez has worked the end of May up until today out of the bullpen, as his ERA stands at 6.71 for the season.
No doubt in my mind we see plenty of runs this afternoon.
5* ST. LOUIS-BALTIMORE OVER
Will Rogers
Nationals at Mets
Pick: Mets
The set-up: The Mets got set to host the Nats on Thursday, entering the series having won five of six, while Washington had lost five of six. New York had 'closed' within 8 1/2 games of the Nats and was optimistic it had a chance to take the series and gain some ground. So much for that. Washington takes the field Sunday afternoon looking to complete a four-game sweep of New York, after winning the first three by scores of 8-3, 7-2 and 7-4. Washington has posted 22 runs in the first three games of the series and is now 6-0 in 2017 at Citi Field. The Mets are now 30-37 on the season, 11 1/2 games back and it's not even July 4th.
The pitching matchup: Joe Ross (3-2 & 6.39 ERA) steps the mound for Washington and New York will counter with Jacob deGrom (5-3 & 4.33 ERA). Ross has been very inconsistent in 2017 (that's being kind), as he's allowed five ERs or more in five of his eight starts, although he's allowed a total of just five ERs in his other three (all wins). Ross, who is 1-1 with a 5.16 ERA in four games against the Mets (team is 2-2), including allowing five ERs in just four inning on April 30th, when the Nats won 23-5! DeGrom has also had some poor starts in 2017 but after he limited the Cubs to one run on five hits in a complete-game performance his last time out in a 6-1 June 12th win, he now has eight quality starts in 13 outings. However, in his two previous starts, deGrom lasted only four innings each time, allowing a total of 15 ERs on 18 hits (OUCH!). DeGrom is 3-3 with a 3.40 ERA in nine career outings versus the Nationals (Mets are 5-4).
The pick: The Mets missed a chance to show they can pala with the Nats but should be able to salvage one game of the series, as deGrom draws Ross as his 'opposite number.' Let's go Mets.
Brad Diamond
White Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -175
Only can recommend lefty Happ and Toronto here. I don't like the inflated number but, Happ just threw is best six innings at Seattle surrendering no runs and six hits in six innings of work. Granted the Sox have won five straight on this field and show well against LHP (12-7), however, RHP Shields is making his first start since April 16th. With the Blue Jays/Happ 9-1 in Sunday editions, look for a bounce back by Toronto.
Rocketman
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -1½
The Seattle Mariners travel to Texas to take on the Rangers on Sunday afternoon. Seattle is 33-37 SU overall this year while Texas comes in with a 34-33 SU overall record on the season. Christian Bergman is 3-4 with a 6.08 ERA overall this year, 1-3 with a 10.61 ERA on the road this season and 1-2 with a 7.90 ERA his last 3 starts. Yu Darvish is 6-4 with a 2.93 ERA overall this year, 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA at home this season and 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA his last 3 starts. Seattle is scoring only 4.4 runs per game on the road this year. Seattle is allowing 5.7 runs per game on the road this year and 8.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Texas is scoring 6.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 5.6 runs per game in day games this season. Texas is allowing only 3.7 runs per game in day games this year. Texas is 5-1 this year at home when the total is 10 to 10 1/2. We'll recommend a small play on Texas on the Run Line on Sunday!
Ray Monohan
Cleveland at Minnesota
Play: Cleveland -152
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Cleveland Indians and the Minnesota Twins face off on Sunday afternoon, and even at this price the Indians have a ton of value. On the mound for the Twins is Kyle Gibson, who has been downright awful all year. He has a 4-4 record and an ERA of 6.79. In his last start he went six innings and gave up 12 hits and 6 runs.
If he has problems again in this game the Twins Bullpen has been overworked this weekend already. The bullpen already struggles on normal rest, so they will really be going to the bottom of the bullpen to find someone to pitch. I think the Indians will get to Gibson early and often on the way to an easy victory. Some trends to note, Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 Sunday games. Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Teddy Davis
Cardinals vs. Orioles
Play: Over 10½
It just seems way to obvious here, but you have to like the Over again today with these two teams. Both are hitting ball very well right now as they have combined to score 22 runs yesterday and 13 the day before.
Both of these pitchers favor the the favor. Jimenez is 4-0 to the over when pitching at home and 6-2 to the over for the year. Lynn is 8-5 on the over for the year while 5-3 to the over being on the road. I think it's safe to say that there will be a lot of runs scored again here today
Power Sports
Cleveland vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota +1.5
When I gave out Cleveland in this very space on Friday, I said "I think it's about time the reigning AL Champs began asserting themselves in their own division." That is exactly what has played out so far this weekend as not only did the Tribe end up taking that game Friday, 8-1, but they also then swept a doubleheader on Saturday (winning by scores of 9-3 and 6-2).
While I can't say I'm too surprised how this series has played out so far, it is exceedingly rare to see a road team come in and sweep a four-game series. That's what the Indians are looking to do here, but w/ Trevor Bauer (5.85 ERA, 1.493 WHIP) on the bump, don't be surprised if they were to fall short. Bauer's numbers get even worse on the road and over his last three starts overall, his WHIP is an awful 2.062. He does have two quality starts against Minnesota so far this year, but my thought is the third time will be the charm for the home team today.
Kyle Gibson gets the start opposite Bauer. After pitching well on three straight occasions, he had a rough outing earlier in the week against Seattle. He allowed six runs and 12 hits in six innings, but fortunately his offense was there to pick him up in a MAJOR way (Twins won 20-7!). Consider that in the five games since, the Twins have scored all of 16 runs total. Shockingly, Minnesota is 0-6 at home against Cleveland this year and they are just 14-23 at Target Field overall. That's downright shocking considering their positive start to the year. Here, they'll do no worse than a one-run loss.
Bob Balfe
White Sox/Blue Jays Over 9.5
The White Sox have been knocking the cover off the ball and excel against left handed starters. Today’s game is being played in perfect conditions indoors and I expect a lot of home runs. James Shields has looked good so far for Chicago, but only has limited innings and should struggle coming off the DL. Look for a lot of walks and extra base hits by Toronto. Both teams should score a lot of runs.
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON (+140) over NY Mets
The Nats are 7-2 against the Mets this season, including a perfect 6-0 on this field, and we don’t see any reason to buck that trend here today, especially at this price. Washington is one of the best road teams in baseball, averaging 5.7 runs per game away from home while going 24-12. The oddsmaker is totally overrating Mets starter Jacob deGrom, who has really struggled in his last three starts, posting a 8.40 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. Take the big price with the better team.