Free Picks for Sunday, June 25th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS AT PADRES
PLAY: PADRES -104
Lather, rinse and repeat as far as the analysis has concerned.
I do, however, have a feeling this might be the final wager in this fade the Tigers run. Detroit is off on Monday before opening a series at Comerica against the red hot Royals. i hope I’m wrong for selfish reasons, but I’ll actually be surprised if Ausmus is still managing the Tigers come Tuesday. The change in the dugout is now inevitable and the timing for the move is perfect. We’ll see what happens on that count.
Scott Rickenbach
Reds vs. Nationals
Play: Over 10
The Nationals send Tanner Roark to the mound for this one and they've lost each of his last three starts as he has been rocked in all 3 outings. Roark has a 9.88 ERA and 2.34 WHIP in his last three outings. The Reds will have Scott Feldman getting the call this afternoon at Washington and he's facing the top scoring team in MLB. The National exploded for 18 runs in yesterday's game and are loaded with confidence at the plate as they have a .497 slugging percentage at the plate in June. That ranks them #1 in the National League. Feldman has made 7 road starts so far this season and only 1 has stayed under the total! He has a 5.15 ERA away from home and, keep in mind, the Nats are averaging 6 runs per game this season in games against right-handed starters. The over is 10-2 in Washington's last 12 games. The Reds have gone over the total in 7 straight games. Look for more of the same here!
Rocketman
Rockies vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -1½
The Colorado Rockies travel to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers on Sunday afternoon. Colorado is 47-30 SU overall this year while the LA Dodgers come in with a 50-26 SU overall record on the season. Tyler Anderson is 3-5 with a 5.85 ERA overall this year and 2-2 with a 5.51 ERA on the road this season. Brandon McCarthy is 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA overall this year, 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA at home this season and 1-1 with a 1.47 ERA his last 3 starts. Colorado is scoring only 3.6 runs per game while allowing 6.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. LA Dodgers are scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this year, 7.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 5.8 runs per game in day games this season. LA Dodgers are allowing only 3.4 runs per game overall this year, 3 runs per game at home this season, 2.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 3.4 runs per game on grass, 3.7 runs per game in day games and 3.6 runs per game against division opponents. LA Dodgers are 18-6 last 3 years at home vs Colorado. LA Dodgers are 32-7 last 3 years and 12-2 this year at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers on the Runline today!
Stephen Nover
Orioles vs. Rays
Play: Over 9½
Now that Nik Turley was mercifully returned to the minors by the Twins, Chris Tillman is back in the running for worst starting pitcher in the American League. Tillman has the highest ERA in the AL among starters at 8.39 in nine starts. Tillman has been very consistent his past five games - giving up at least five runs in each of those starts. Tillman has walked 22 and yielded nine homers in fewer than 40 innings. The Rays rank ninth in runs scored and have hit the second-most homers in baseball. Tampa starter Jake Odorizzi has a 5.15 lifetime ERA versus Baltimore in 14 appearances, including 13 starts. The Orioles rank seventh in homers. Odorizzi has surrendered at least one home run in his last 10 appearances. A Rays pitcher hasn't had such a dubious streak since James Shields 12 years ago. Neither bullpen is very good with the Orioles missing their injured closer, Zack Britton. The over has cashed in 10 of Tampa's last 11 home games. Note, too, that Clint Fagen is slated to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed 60 percent of the time he's been the home plate umpire during the past three years, a sampling of 72 games.
Cappers Club
Twins / Indians Under 9.5
The Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians face off on Sunday afternoon and with such a high total the under has a ton of value.
On the mound for the Twins is Ervin Santana who although he has been bad in his last two starts still has been dominant this year. He comes into this game with a 9-4 record and an ERA of 2.97.
In his only start at Cleveland this year he went seven innings and only gave up two hits. I think he will use that confidence in this game to keep the game nice and low scoring.
On the mound for the Indians is Josh Tomlin who hasn't been great this year, but his best outing of the year did come against the Twins.
In that game he went eight innings giving up six hits and one run.
Some trends to note. Under is 7-0-1 in Santanas last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 during game 3 of a series.
Both of the first two games in this series have been low scoring, and I expect the same in this one.
Ben Burns
Tigers vs. Padres
Play: Over 8½
Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 5.25 ERA) has been hit-or-miss all year for the Tigers, most recently he gave up three runs off six hits with three walks over six innings in a 5-4 loss to Seattle on Tuesday (he’s been at his worst on the road as well, 0-3 with a 5.98 ERA). Like his counterpart today, Clayton Richard (5-7, 4.20) comes in off a decent outing, giving up two runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a loss to the Cubs on Monday, not factoring into the decision. Starts like that though have been few and far between for the veteran though, who owns a pedestrian 4.21 ERA at home this year. Recent form exhibited by both starters suggests we’ll have a bit of a “slug-fest” on our hands in this one.
Red Dog Sports
San Antonio Stars vs. Minnesota Lynx
Play: San Antonio Stars +16
This game features the best and worst of the WNBA. Minnesota started 9-0 but lost at home to Connecticut. The Lynx bounced back with a nice win (and cover) against Washington on Friday night. It was our WNBA Game Of The Month. San Antonio has struggled to win but has had some overtime losses as well as close calls within single digits. I like Minnesota to win by 10 to 15 points so take the +16 on Sunday night.
Scott Spreitzer
Brewers vs. Braves
Play: Braves -122
Atlanta has won four in a row and eight of its last 10 after Saturday's 3-1 win over the Brewers and the Braves have an opportunity to extend the streak against Zach Davies, who hasn't pitched nearly as well as his 7-4 record indicates. Davies has allowed 14 earned runs on 23 hits his last 15 innings and he hasn't pitched past the sixth inning this season. Julio Teheran has pitched better at home than he did earlier in the season and Atlanta has won four of his last five starts overall. Teheran threw one bad pitch on Tuesday, but otherwise was effective in a loss to San Francisco. The Braves have won 17 of the last 24 meetings at Atlanta and 16 of Teheran's last 21 Sunday starts. Milwaukee has lost four of its last six games overall.
Teddy Davis
Brewers vs. Braves
Play: Braves -120
I cashed in on the Braves yesterday and will gladly back them again here today as Teheran as seemed to come out of his funk from a few weeks back. He has a 2.66 ERA his last three starts and the only reason he isn't getting more respect is because of his home struggles. I think the Braves really rally behind him here as they have won 4 straight and 7 of their last 8.
Zavies was off to a hot start on the season, but now has really cooled off. While he is 3-0 on the road it's not like he was dominating in those performances with an ERA just under 4.5 His recent form is nothing I want a part of as it's 8.40.
Mike Anthony
Detroit vs. San Diego
Play: San Diego -110
I'm baffled by these runs the Padres have been on recently. Remember when they swept the Chicago Cubs at home? Now the Tigers are in trouble. But I haven't decided if I'm playing on San Diego, or against the Tigers, who at the present moment are a disaster. This team is already talking trades before the deadline. Ian Kinsler and JD Martinez could be gone real quick. Add in the fact the bullpen is really bad, and I don't know how this team is mentally strong, as it is mired in a season-high, eight-game losing streak. The Tigers' relievers rank dead last in the majors with a 5.32 ERA, while the entire staff has the league's sixth-worst road ERA (5.32). Let's play the Padres, who are finally above .500 inside Petco Park, at 19-18, and have won three straight and seven of 11.
Will Rogers
Chicago at Miami
Pick: Miami
The set-up: The defending champs are finding out it's quite difficult to repeat. Consistency has been a challenge in 2017 for the Cubs and this series has been a good example of just that. The Cubs and Marlins opened a four-game series in Miami on Thursday with Chicago banging out 16 hits in an 11-1 rout. Then, one night later, the Cubs fell 2-0, marking the sixth time they’ve been shut out this season (FYI: that matches their total from all of last season!). On Saturday, the Cubs bounced back with 11 hits and won 5-3. The teams square off in the series' finale Sunday with Chicago at a modest 38-36 (a half-game back of the first-place Brewers in the NL Central) and Miami at 33-40, a whopping 11 /2 games back of the Nats in the NL East.
The pitching matchup: Mike Montgomery (1-3 & 2.26 ERA) gets the ball for the Cubs while Edinson Volquez (3-8 & 4.19 ERA) will start for the Marlins. Montgomery has improved in each of his three starts since joining the rotation on June 9. He was dominant Tuesday against San Diego, allowing just three hits and two walks over six scoreless innings to pick up his first win of the season. The Cubs had lost his first two starts with Montgomery pitching only nine innings with four ERs allowed. Volquez opened the 2017 season going 0-7 with a 4.82 ERA in his first nine starts (team was 1-8 ). He ended May with a 4-1 win over the Phillies, then in his first two outings of June, started the month with a no-hitter against Arizona and followed by allowing just three hits in a 7-1 win over the Pirates, giving him 18 strikeouts over 16 scoreless innings. However, the veteran has struggled in his last two outings, giving up 11 runs (10 earned) in just 8 2/3 innings. Then again, Volquez is 7-0 with a 3.06 ERA in 12 games (11 starts / teams are 11-0!) against the Cubs in his career.
The pick: The Cubs have won six of their last nine and will try to a win a third consecutive series for the first time since late-April. Meanwhile, the Marlins had won five straight home series entering the weekend but they can do no better than a split in this one. Considering Volquez has started 11 times in his career against the Cubs, with his team winning each one, aren't the Marlins worth a shot against a Chicago team which is just 8-16 its last 24 on the road? Cubs lose, Cubs lose!
Larry Ness
Rockies at Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
The Dodgers came into the 2017 season having won the NL West each of the last four years but LA still hasn't made a World Series appearance since it upset the Oakland A's way back in 1988 (LA has lost in the NLDS or NLCS in each of its 10 playoff appearances since 1988). However, 2017 could be LA's year, as everything is coming up roses for the streaking Los Angeles Dodgers as the 2017 season approaches the All Star break. The Dodgers have won nine straight games and 15 of their last 16 heading into their series finale against the visiting Colorado Rockies on Sunday. Clayton Kershaw tossed six strong innings in become the first NL pitcher to reach 11 wins this season (KC's Vargas also won his 11th game on Saturday) and help the Dodgers become the first NL team to reach 50 wins (50-26). Saturday's 4-0 loss was Colorado's fourth in a row and the 47-30 Rockies are now 3 1/2 games back of LA and a game back of Arizona.
Tyler Anderson (3-5, 5.75 ERA) will take the mound this afternoon for Colorado and Brandon McCarthy (6-3, 2.87 ERA) for the Dodgers. Anderson is rejoining the rotation after missing three weeks with left knee inflammation. He made a rare relief appearance on Thursday, allowing one hit with a walk and three strikeouts in one inning against Arizona. Anderson, who is 2-3 with a 3.57 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers (team is 2-4).
McCarthy earned his first victory since May 27 on Tuesday, allowing four hits and a walk over six scoreless innings against the New York Mets. However, McCarthy has pitched very well in 2017, allowing two runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts this season (Dodgers are 8-4 in his starts), including six consecutive outings. McCarthy owns a 2-3 record and 4.57 ERA in eight career outings against the Rockies (teams are 4-4).
Anderson has already faced the Dodgers three time in 2017, losing all three with a 5.74 ERA in those three outings. McCarthy faces Colorado for the first time in 2017 but posted a 2.70 ERA in three starts vs the Rockies last year. Why go against the red-hot Dodgers here? After all, they are 31-10 in Chavez Ravine in 2017 (have outscored opponents 5.66-to-2.95) and are now 42-11 in their last 53 home games dating back to September 3, 2016.
Jim Feist
Tigers at Padres
Pick: Under
San Diego is a huge park, great for pitchers, and a tired Detroit offense is in town, winding down a long road trip out West. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Tigers last 9 interleague games. San Diegos last in baseball in runs scored, on a 5-0 run under the total in this park. And the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego.
Scott Rickenbach
Rockies at Dodgers
Play: Over 8.5
The very first numbers to come out on this game showed an opener of 9 on the total and then it dropped to as low as an 8 before now settling in at an 8.5 across the board. The fact is that 9 certainly may seem high for a game at Dodger Stadium but in typical contrarian fashion, that is part of the reason I am happily backing the over here. Don't be fooled by the big number on this one. the fact is that the Rockies Tyler Anderson got rocked by Seattle in his most recent start for 6 earned runs on 11 hits in 5 innings of work. Though his two prior outings were both solid road starts, he faced two of the worst teams in MLB - Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Now he faces a tough Dodgers lineup and, even with the strong starts versus the Reds and Phillies, Anderson has a 5.51 ERA on the road this season. The over is 4-2 in his 6 road starts this year. Although the Dodgers Brandon McCarthy has put up strong numbers this season, he has a 5.40 ERA in his last two starts versus the Rockies. Also, his strikeout numbers are down recently and he is facing a Colorado team that is averaging 5.5 runs per game in their games against right-handed starters this season. After struggling with southpaws Wood and Kershaw the past two games, the Rockies will be happy to face a right-hander today. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Anderson's road starts this season and 11-4 in Dodgers home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs on the year!