The Prop Specialists
Philadelphia vs. Arizona
Philadelphia 1st 5
Based on our suite of Machine Learning algorithms, we have identified a 5* investment opportunity on the 1st 5 innings staight up market in this game. Our rated run differential on PHI to win the 1st 5 innings is -0.39 runs. This repesents a fair value price of +129 and a 16.8% edge on the market's price of +147
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +154 over LOS ANGELES
The Dodgers are the hottest team in the majors that are putting up some gaudy numbers right now so to back them, you will pay a massive premium to do so. The other side of that coin is we get tremendous value in taking the Rockies here after they lost the first two games of this series. However, the Rocks had to face Alex Wood and Clayton Kershaw and now they take a huge step down in class when facing Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy has put up Alex Wood/Clayton Kershaw-like surface stats but he does not have the skills to back it up. McCarthy has a 2.87 ERA and 1.07 WHIP after 12 starts but an 84% strand rate and very low 27% hit rate is the reason for his low ERA. Pay more attention to his 4.14 xERA. McCarthy’s swing and miss rate is 9% and 7% over his last five starts. He has 55 K’s in 69 frames, which is serviceable for sure but nowhere near elite. His 1.59 WHIP and 29% line-drive rate over his last six starts reveals the extreme luck that is working in his favor. Now throw in the offense of the Colorado Rockies and we get a very live pooch at a very inflated price.
Tyler Anderson’s 5.75 ERA is another misleading number. This is a pitcher that exhibits elite skills but they’re hidden because that’s what Coors Field does to pitchers. Tyler Anderson is a former first rounder that finally shook off arm woes and looked good in MLB debut a season ago. His elite command comes with full underlying support, so don't dismiss it. His 51% groundball profile gives him a higher floor than you'd expect from a thin-air pitcher. Anderson has 62 K’s in 61 frames. His swing and miss rate is 13% and 17% over his last five starts. His first-pitch strike rate is 65%. We understand that the Dodgers are killing it right now but we also know that it cannot last. The Yanks scored 50 runs in five games recently but then normalcy kicked in and the same will happen to the Dodgers. That’s not to say it will happen here but this starter for the Rockies has the ability to cool these bats off and at this price, we’re absolutely willing to gamble. The Dodgers are going a little too well right now so it’s time to sell, at least for this single game.
Oakland -1½ +126 over CHICAGO
Sonny Gray might be the unluckiest pitcher in baseball but that works in our favor because this market sees a 2-3 record after 10 starts with a 4.84 ERA. We’re not sure if anyone realizes how out-of-whack and misleading that ERA is. Sonny Gray is an elite starter with poor surface stats. Credit electric skills to Gray and bet him now because his stock is going to rise quickly. Gray has a BB/K split of 21/58 in 58 innings. His K-rate is elite, his 55% groundball rate is elite and his 64% first-pitch strike rate is well-above league average. A crazy 40% hit rate versus righties and an overall low 66% strand rate has pushed his actual ERA into the extremely misleading category. As those numbers normalize, Sonny Gray’s surface stats will soar. By the way, the South Side cannot hit righties.
Meanwhile, Derek Holland has been exhibiting unusable stuff of late and his fly-ball profile isn’t likely to play well against an Oakland lineup that ranks as a top-5 outfit versus fly-ball pitchers. Over his last five starts, covering 22 innings, Holland has walked 12 with an ERA/xERA split of 9.55/5.97. His ERA/xERA split speaks volumes about his current skill level. Holland has changed up his pitch mix in the first three months and had moderate success early but MLB hitters catch on quickly. He’s throwing a lot fewer sinkers (16%, compared to 59% the past few years). He’s now using a knuckle curve more frequently (25% in 2017/8-11% 2014-16). However, he’s giving up more fly balls, which is a dangerous habit to have in this ballpark. Oakland’s bats are heating up again and now this becomes its most favorable pitching matchup of the weekend. If you like Holland, we’re urging you to look elsewhere.
L.A. Angels +147 over BOSTON
Parker Bridwell made his MLB starting debut last week and went five full in the Bronx and allowed two runs while striking out five Yankees. He’s now gotten his feet wet, both in relief and as a starter. The Angels have also won all three of the games he’s pitched in. Obtained for cash from Baltimore in mid-April, Bridwell was once a very promising prospect. He still has some upside due to his frame and pitch mix, but he needs to prove his command gains are for real. He was moved to the bullpen by the Orioles in the middle of 2016 and he reached the majors as a reliever, appearing in two games late in the year. His failure to find consistency with his command and control has put a damper on his prospect status but he still owns a solid-average 90-95 mph fastball and potentially plus change-up. Bridwell uses his height to throw downhill and he doesn’t allow many HR’s as a result. We’re just profiling Bridwell to give you some history on him but frankly, we don’t care who is pitching for the Halos here because this wager is all about fading Doug Fister at a ridiculous price. If Bridwell was on Boston and Fister was on the Angels, Boston would be a 2-1 favorite.
Doug Fister becomes the latest fill-in candidate for the Boston rotation. Ironically, it comes against the L.A. Angels (who released him on June 21 after his inauspicious minor league results at AAA-Salt Lake: 3 starts, 15.2 IP, 16 hits, 10 K/5 BB). It is unclear how many starts he may get for the Red Sox, with uncertainty certainly around his own performance, as well as the rates of recovery for other members of the starting pitcher corps (most recently Eduardo Rodriguez). Fister didn’t impress the Angels, who decided that the pro-rated $1.75 million would be best spent elsewhere. Doug Fister is a fill in. He last pitched at this level back in late September of last year as a member of the Astros. With Houston, he lost his last seven starts and the scores were 12-4, 10-6, 7-3, 4-3, 6-5, 10-8 and 10-4. The Astronauts saw enough of him too. At his peak, Fister relied upon pounding the strike zone, limiting walks and getting plenty of grounders. Each of those areas has progressively shown erosion, especially his control. His puny swing and miss rate/K-rate combo has long been an issue so any degradation in any other skill is magnified. Negative trends in xERA, control, command, disaster starts % and overall skills paint a bleak picture and now he’s favored like he’s Michael Pineda? As value bettors, this one must be played.
N.Y. Mets +137 over SAN FRAN
Matt Moore was traded to the Giants at the deadline last year and posted a 4.08 ERA the rest of the way, which was the exact same ERA that he posted for the Rays before the trade. The Rays brass must’ve seen something they didn’t like and they were right. Moore’s ERA/xERA split this year is 5.82/5.05. With three wins in 15 starts after allowing 102 hits in 85 frames, this dude cannot be favored pitching for the Giants. He has twice as many disaster starts as he does quality starts. His once mid-90’s fastball is missing in action. His 42%/37%/21% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball batted ball profile is weak and there is no consistency in what he’s doing. Moore has a weak bullpen behind him and he also pitches for a team that is 23½ games out and we’re not even in July.
Rafael Montero was signed six years ago as an international free agent. He sped through the Mets system despite being an undersized pitcher without a dominant fastball. His career minor-league numbers (2.63 ERA, 8.5 K’s/9, 2.0 BB’s/9) become that much more impressive considering that he pitched one-third of his 250 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Montero’s then plus-plus control and movement on his pitches made him very tough for hitters to contend with. He throws a fastball with excellent movement from a ¾ arm slot that can reach 95 mph, and complements that with a plus slider and solid-average change-up. There’s a lot to like about Montero’s make-up with his good work ethic, repeatable mechanics, easy arm action, solid mound presence and excellent pitch sequencing but for whatever reason he has not been able to throw strikes consistently at this level, which was a skill he featured in the minors. In 15 games this year covering two starts and 13 relief appearances, Montero has struck out 28 batters in 26 frames. He struck out five Dodgers in 3.2 innings of relief in his last appearance and has posted an elite 15% swing and miss rate since May 25th. Montero has the stuff. If he throws strikes, he has #2 or #3 starter upside. He’ll now face a team that is gripping their bats tighter than anyone and that figures to help him out too. The Giants are favored here because Montero’s surface stats are horrible and that’s what this market thankfully focuses on. This kid (he’s only 26) can pitch and he can dominate if he’s throwing strikes, a trait he had his entire minor-league career. Yeah, we’ll bite.
Brandon Lee
Twins vs. Indians
Play: Twins +141
I'll gladly back Minnesota as a big road dog with Ervin Santana on the mound. I know Santana is coming off a couple of really bad starts, but he's been a guy that is proned to those outings and has done a great job of bouncing back with not just a good start but a great start. Given how well the Twins are playing on the road this year and the Indians sending out one of their weaker starters in Josh Tomlin, I would acuallly give Minnesota the edge here. Santana still owns a 2.97 ERA on the year and a crazy good 1.71 ERA in 6 road starts (5-1 record). Tomlin has a awful 6.07 ERA on the season and 6.58 ERA at home.
Jimmy Boyd
Cubs vs. Marlins
Play: Cubs -118
I still believe the Cubs are going to snap out of their funk and make a run to close out the season that has them winning the NL Central. Given that, this is just too good of a price to pass up on Chicago on the road agianst a Marlins team that is 7-games under .500. Chicago will send out Mike Montgomery, who has really pitched well since being thrust into the rotation. He's got a 2.40 ERA in 3 starts and is coming off an outing where he threw 6 scoreless.
Cubs have also been playing well of late. They have already won 2 of the first 3 in the series and are 5-2 over their last 7. The offense should be able to get going here against Edinson Volquez, who is 3-8 and has a 4.19 ERA in 14 starts. The last two have been especially bad for Volquez, allowing 10 runs with 9 walks in 8 2/3 innings.
ASA
Twins vs. Indians
Play: Over 9½
This total has dropped from a 10 to a 9.5 and we are well aware of the streak of unders the Twins have had. The key to an over snapping that skid today is that both of these starting pitchers are in poor current form. Ervin Santana gets the start for Minnesota and he has been crushed for 11 earned runs on 19 hits (4 homers!) in the 10 innings over his last 2 starts. Josh Tomlin toes the rubber for Cleveland in this one and he has compiled an 8.75 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, Tomlin has a 5.07 ERA in his career starts against the Twins. Minnesota has played 12 Sunday games this season and the over is 8-4 in those dozen contests. The Indians have played 20 home games this season where their money line was set in a range of -125 to -175 and the over is 13-7 in those 20 contests. We look for these trends to continue early this afternoon as they each add another over winner to the ledgers!
Brad Diamond
Orioles vs. Rays
Play: Over 9½
Thought TB had a real shot at winning yesterday, unfortunately, their pen gave away 5 runs in 3 innings of work costing any chance of cashing. Sunday, we go back to the total board in the series. Throwing for Baltimore RHP Tillman (1-5, 8.40) who in three starts on the road is 0-2 with a 13.92 ERA. Last seven outings 0-5 with a 10+ ERA. Tillman comes in 8-10 with a 4.11 ERA vs. the Rays. Tampa Bay uses RHP Odorizzi (4-3, 3.78) who has been more effective than the O’s entry, though, in June the record 1-3 L4 starts in 20-1/3 innings of work. Odorizzi surrendered 19 runs (12 earned) and 6 home runs. The hurler has had some problems against the O’s with a 3-4 (13 starts) and a corresponding 5.15 ERA. Baltimore (40-31 OVER) is a perfect 3-0 OVER after playing a game that jointly posted at least ten runs. In addition, the Orioles are 5-0 OVER in roadies and 6-0 OVER against RHP. The last six games against the division have gone OVER. The Rays (47-29) show with incredible OVER numbers recently….12-0 OVER on turf, 10-1 OVER at home and 12-2 OVER vs. a hurler with a +1.30 WHIP. If you’re looking for more, TB shows 10-1 OVER as a chalk and 4-0 L4 OVER with Odorizzi on the hill. The Orioles shuffled their lineup again with Schoop hitting in the 4th slot, it paid dividends for everyone else. By the way, the Orioles streak of allowing 5 or more in their last 15 games ended yesterday.
Doc's Sports
Orioles vs. Rays
Play: Rays -148
Tropicana Field is the site of the matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday, June 25, 2017. The probable starting pitchers are Chris Tillman for the Orioles and Jake Odorizzi for the Rays.
Baltimore opens at +141 while Tampa Bay opens at -151. The Orioles have a 39-31-3 over/under record and a 32-41-0 run line mark. The Rays are 40-36-0 against the run line and have a 46-29-1 over/under record.
Valuable Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Baltimore Orioles are 39-31-3 against the over/under
The Baltimore Orioles are 32-41-0 against the run line
Important Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends
The Tampa Bay Rays are 46-29-1 against the over/under
The Tampa Bay Rays are 40-36-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Orioles have a 35-38 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Chris Tillman has a 1-5 record with an earned run average of 8.39 and a WHIP of 2.17. He has 26 strikeouts over his 39.2 innings pitched and he's given up 64 hits. He allows 14.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 6.52. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.31 and they have given up 289 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .267 against the bullpen and they've struck out 239 hitters and walked 110 batters. As a team, Baltimore allows 10.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings. They are 30th in the league in team earned run average at 5.2. The Orioles pitchers collectively have given up 734 base hits and 377 earned runs. They have allowed 110 home runs this season, ranking them 3rd in the league. Baltimore as a pitching staff has walked 284 batters and struck out 521. They have walked 3.9 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.2 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.56 and their FIP as a unit is 5.17.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Baltimore is hitting .256, good for 12th in the league. The Orioles hold a .429 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .311, which is good for 25th in baseball. They rank 12th in MLB with 8.9 hits per game. Mark Trumbo is hitting .259 with an on-base percentage of .317. He has 75 hits this season in 290 at bats with 33 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .400 and an OPS+ of 91. Jonathan Schoop is hitting .295 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .347. He has totaled 77 hits and he has driven in 46 men in 261 at bats. His OPS+ is 133 while his slugging percentage is at .540. The Orioles have 652 hits, including 121 doubles and 103 home runs. Baltimore has walked 188 times so far this season and they have struck out 658 times as a unit. They have left 482 men on base and have a team OPS of .740. They score 4.49 runs per contest and have scored a total of 328 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Tampa Bay has a 40-36 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.78, Jake Odorizzi has a 4-3 record and a 1.22 WHIP. He has 59 strikeouts over the 69 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 60 hits. He allows 7.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.34. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.25 and they have given up 237 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .244 against the Rays bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 219 batters and walked 103 opposing hitters. As a team, Tampa Bay allows 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.1 batters per nine innings. They are 9th in the league in team earned run average at 4.1. The Rays pitchers as a team have surrendered 657 base knocks and 310 earned runs this season. They have given up 82 home runs this year, which ranks 25th in Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay as a staff has walked 248 hitters and struck out 616 batters. They give up a walk 3.3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.1 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.33 while their FIP as a staff is 4.08.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .256, good for 13th in the league. The Rays hold a .450 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .330, which is good for 12th in baseball. They rank 13th in MLB with 8.8 hits per contest. Corey Dickerson comes into this matchup batting .330 with an OBP of .372. He has 96 hits this year along with 37 RBI in 291 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .584 with an OPS+ of 156. Logan Morrison is hitting .250 this season and he has an OBP of .356. He has collected 61 hits in 244 at bats while driving in 54 runs. He has an OPS+ of 150 and a slugging percentage of .582. The Rays as a unit have 668 base hits, including 115 doubles and 118 homers. Tampa Bay has walked 281 times this year and they have struck out on 750 occasions. They have had 538 men left on base and have an OPS of .780. They have scored 4.93 runs per game and totaled 375 runs this season.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Sunday is on the Washington Nationals over the Cincinnati Reds.
One night after the Reds took the Nationals to extra innings as a +240-underdog, Washington struck back with an 18-3 victory. Hope you enjoyed my 1,000♦ rout yesterday.
Now I'm coming right back with Washington as my free winner, going against a mentally wounded Reds team that has now lost four in a row. The disappointment from the past two nights will carry over to this series finale, and the Nationals will prey on a Cincinnati lineup that just doesn't compare on offense.
Washington came into this series leading the National League in batting average (.274), slugging percentage (.472), on-base percentage plus slugging (.811), home runs (110), extra-base hits (268), runs (398) and RBI (390).
Nothing has changed after last night's 15-run win.
Once again, don't worry about listing pitchers, as it won't matter. This one is about feeding off last night's momentum, which the Reds do not have.
1* NATIONALS
Brad Wilton
Friday saw these teams combine for 11 runs and an Over.
Saturday the Reds and Nats combined for 21 runs and another Over.
That puts Cincy on a 7 game Over streak as they head into this Sunday finale.
It also puts Washington on a 10-2 Over tear their last dozen games played.
Look for the series finale to stay High with Scott Feldman and Tanner Roark on the bump.
Feldman has been the steadier of the 2 pitchers, but on the road Feldman owns an over 5 ERA, with 4 of his 5 road starts landing Over the total.
As for Roark, he sports a 9.88 ERA over his last3 efforts, and in 15 starts this season, the Over stands at 10-4-1.
I think it is safe to stick with the established team and pitching trends, and play Over in the Reds-Nationals Sunday closer.
5* CINCINNATI-WASHINGTON OVER
Jeff Benton
After a 2-1 final in 10 innings on Friday, the Rangers and Yankees came back early on Saturday, and played another lower-scoring contest, as the Under has cashed in 3 straight series meetings, and is 4-2-1 the past 7 times the teams have faced one another.
Look for another Under on Sunday when Nick Martinez and Michael Pineda lock horns.
Martinez has seen 2 of his last 3 starts, and 7 of his 10 starts overall this year hold Under the total, while Pineda has been a beast at Yankee Stadium this first half of the season going 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA in the Bronx.
Both clubs enter with Unders in 4 of their last 7 games played, and the way the bats have gone quiet this weekend, have to believe Martinez and Pineda can go out there today and set the hitters down more often than not.
Texas-New York play it Under on Sunday.
4* TEXAS-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Sunday is on the Los Angeles Dodgers on the Run Line, as they will knock around the Colorado Rockies.
Los Angeles is on a nice run - a nine-game win streak - that has surged them into first place in the National League West.
After wrapping up a six-game road trip with a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds, the Dodgers opened their nine-game homestand by sweeping the New York Mets in four games.
Los Angeles opened its series with the Rockies by scoring a 6-1 victory, then backed it up with last night's 4-0 win.
Today I'll back the Dodgers, who are now 3 1/2 games in front of the Rockies atop the division. Los Angeles has won nine straight and 15 of 16. And by doing so, it has seized momentum at the right time, heading into the All-Star Break.
Colorado lost its last four games - at home versus the Arizona Diamondbacks and the last two nights against L.A. - by a combined final of 36-9.
Play Los Angeles on the run line.
5* DODGERS -1.5
Jack Brayman
I nailed my premium play on the Padres last night, and now I'm giving you the Friars as my free play. And just like yesterday, I'm baffled by these runs the Padres have been on recently. Remember when they swept the Chicago Cubs at home? Now the Tigers are in trouble.
But I haven't decided if I'm playing on San Diego, or against the Tigers, who at the present moment are a disaster.
This team is already talking trades before the deadline. Ian Kinsler and JD Martinez could be gone real quick. There are five players who signed for more than 120 million last year, and it certainly isn't looking to pay off.
Add in the fact the bullpen is really bad, and I don't know how this team is mentally strong, as it is mired in a season-high, eight-game losing streak. The Tigers' relievers rank dead last in the majors with a 5.32 ERA, while the entire staff has the league's sixth-worst road ERA (5.32).
Let's play the Padres, who are finally above .500 inside Petco Park, at 19-18, and have won three straight and seven of 11.
2* PADRES
Cal Sports
Blue Jays at Royals
Play: Under 9
KC comes in batting .243 vs lefties with a SLG% of .301 which is second last in the AL. Since losing his first two games this season Francisco Liriano is 7-2 and while his 5.76 he allowed 5 runs while getting only ONE out (.3 IP) in his debut. Jason Hammel’s season long numbers are also inflated but in his last 3 started he has gone at least 6 2/3 IP has allowed only 24 hits and has posted a 19-1 K/W ratio.
Harry Bondi
MINNESOTA (+120) over Cleveland
We have made a nice profit this season going against Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin and we’ll ride the wave today. For the season, the Tribe is 5-9 (-8.1 units) when he starts and he;s been especially bad in his last three starts, posting an ugly 8.75 ERA with a 2.107 WHIP. The Twins are the best road team in baseball at 22-9 and we’ll take the plus price as they complete the three-game sweep in Cleveland.
Bob Balfe
Tigers -105
Neither starting pitcher has consistently looked sharp this season, but at even money I like the Tigers here. Detroit is 2nd in the AL in slugging percentage against left handed pitchers while the Padres are dead last in all of baseball at hitting right handed pitching. Look for Detroit to break their losing streak this afternoon.