DAVE COKIN
BLUE JAYS VS. WHITE SOX
PLAY: WHITE SOX -135/+155
I suppose an argument can be made that Chris Sale, in spite of the gaudy 12-2 record, probably isn’t dominating to his usual extent. But he’s definitely winning and I think it’s fair to state that the White Sox are playing their best baseball when the big southpaw is on the mound.
Marcus Stroman has been very spotty lately and the truth is he’d have to qualify as a disappointment for the season to date. The problem for Stroman recently has been command in the strike zone. He’s very reliant on his two-seam fastball and he’s just not getting enough sink on it. The result has been too much hard contact, and accompanying ugly numbers. In what could only be described as a shocking note, the Toronto Sun reported yesterday that the Blue Jays might have to consider sending Stroman to AAA to “sort things out.” So I have to question his true confidence level and he’s drawing a very tough adversary today in Sale.
The White Sox did the virtually impossible on Saturday, hitting seven homers in a loss. That’s just the third time that has ever happened in big league baseball history. So while I’m sure it was a very frustrating loss, at least the hitters should be striding to the plate feeling good about themselves, and I can see them having success today against the struggling Stroman. I decided to split this game between the money line and runs line, in effect therefore playing the White Sox -1.
Mike Lundin
Mets vs. Braves
Play: Mets -127
The New York Mets have won four of their past five games and must be very encouraged by the fact that NL East leading Washington is mired in a major slump. I like this play so much that I have it rated as an 8* play instead of my customary 5* rating for free picks.
Bartolo Colon (6-3, 3.00 ERA) takes the ball for the Mets as they'll look to deny the Atlanta Braves to split this four-game series. Colon tossed eight scoreless innings against Atlanta on May 2 to improve to 9-2 with a 2.44 ERA against the division rival. Colon left his last start after just four pitches when he was struck in the thumb by a line drive, but he's allowed just a total of four earned runs while covering 20 innings through his last four starts.
The Braves turn to Bud Norris (2-7, 4.69) who's been pitching pretty well lately. He's just 1-3 with a 4.47 ERA in nine career games against New York though and he has a .295 batting average against versus the current members of the Mets. James Loney is 14-for-24 off Norris and a red hot 9-for-20 over the past seven days.
Mets are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Atlanta and 6-2 in Colon's last eight road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Marc Lawrence
Cleveland vs. Detroit
Play:Cleveland +127
Edges - Indians: Josh Tomlin 11-2 with 3.32 ERA and 1.08 WHIP overall team starts this season, including 7-1 versus A.L. Central foes, and 3-0 as a dog, and 2-0 day starts. Tigers: Justin Verlander 0-5 last five team starts in this series. With the Tribe 16-6 this month and Tomlin in spotless KW form with 12 K’s and 0 BB’s in his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Jim Feist
Phillies vs. Giants
Play: Under 7
The Philadelphia offense is terrible, with the team on 7-2 under the total against the National League West. At least the Phillies have a terrific arm going in Aaron Nola, with a 92-22 strikeout to walk ratio in 87+ innings. He's thrown better on the road where opponents hit .213 off him. San Francisco has ace Johnny Cueto throwing bullets, at 11-1 with a 2.06 ERA. Cueto held the Pirates to one run on four hits before exiting with a 10-1 lead after 6.2 innings, racking up six strikeouts with only one walk. The Under is 5-1 in Cueto's with four days of rest, plus 4-1 under the total when he starts at home. And the under is 37-18-6 in umpire Doug Eddings' last 61 Sunday games behind home plate.
Bob Harvey
Cleveland vs. Detroit
Play:Cleveland +122
The Cleveland Indians go for their third consecutive sweep of the Tigers when the teams square off in Detroit. The Tigers and Justin Verlander are moneyline favorites over Josh Tomlin and the Tribe. The Indians a season-high eight-game winning streak overall and a 21-6 mark against their three closest competitors in the American League Central division.
The Indians (43-30, 38-35 RL) improved to 8-0 against the Tigers this season behind a four-hit shutout from Carlos Carrasco and two homers from Francisco Lindor in Saturday's 6-0 win. Cleveland has outscored Detroit 51-17 this season and only one of the meetings has been decided by fewer than three run.
The Tigers (38-37, 42-33 RL) inability to beat Cleveland is the primary reason they are six games back in the division. A weak offense that has tallied one run or fewer in half of its losses to the Indians isn’t much help. Miguel Cabrera - a career .345 hitter vs. the Indians - is 4 for 26 with no home runs and no RBIs against them this season.
Tomlin (8-1, 3.32 ERA) has given Cleveland a huge lift this season although he’s received three straight time no-decisions. He’s been tough on the Tigers this season going 2-0 and allowing just three runs over 12.2 innings.
Verlander (7-5, 3.78) remained unbeaten in four June starts. The former American League MVP has been dominant this month, going 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA, striking out 25 and issuing only four free passes. However he’s been on the wrong end of his head-to-head battles with Tomlin this season, losing both of his outings while posting a 6.75 ERA.
Matt Josephs
Padres vs. Reds
Play: Under 10
I'm going to take a shot on this one on Sunday. Anthony DeSclafani has allowed seven runs and 19 hits in his three starts this season. The righty is working his way back after starting out the year injured. The righty has never faced the Padres whose offense is starting to find itself. San Diego is hitting .229 against right-handed starters and around .225 in day games. They are in good form right now, but I really don't think it's sustainable. Yes the numbers are bad for the Reds bullpen, but I'm hoping that they won't have to cover many innings in this one. Luis Perdomo's numbers are bad too. He has allowed 17 runs and 25 hits in just over 17 innings. Perdomo has great stuff with 12 strikeouts in his last 11 innings. Cincinnati is hitting around .220 in their last eight games. Their offense is really inconsistent and may not be intact with it being a Sunday. The Padres bullpen has just four losses and three blown saves on the road. I realize there are a lot of ugly numbers involved with this one, but with my nose held, I'll take the under as I think 10 is way too high.
Jesse Schule
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -131
The Blue Jays have split the first two games of this series in Chicago, and they will be facing the White Sox ace in the rubber match Sunday afternoon. Chris Sale (12-2, 2.83 ERA) allowed one run on four hits, striking out nine in seven innings in a 3-1 win at Fenway his last time out. The southpaw is 3-1 in his last four starts versus Toronto, and the Jays are hitting just .196 against him in his career. Toronto will hand the ball to Marcus Stroman, who has really been struggling of late. Stroman (6-3, 5.23 ERA) was torched for seven runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 innings in a loss at Baltimore his last time out. He's 1-2 with a 7.89 ERA in four starts so far in June, and he allowed four runs on six hits and two walks over 6 2/3 innings in a no decision versus Chicago earlier this season. Chicago is 13-3 in Sale's last 16 starts overall.
Larry Ness
Boston vs. Texas
Pick: Boston
The Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox play the rubber match of their three-game series on Sunday. Boston won 8-7 on Friday with Texas rolling to a 10-3 victory on Saturday. Saturday's setback marked the FOURTH consecutive game in which Boston has allowed SEVEN or more runs, although the team has gone 2-2 during the stretch. Clay Buchholz (3-7, 5.83 ERA) will take on Martin Perez (6-4, 3.57 ERA) in Sunday’s series finale. Buchholz returned to the rotation on Tuesday, after making five relief appearances. He surrendered three runs on four hits (two HRs) over five innings in a loss to the Chicago White Sox. It marked only the THIRD time in 11 starts he had allowed fewer than four runs and first time since May 4, when he gave up two in a victory at Chicago.
Buchholz has not fared well against Texas in his career as he has lost FIVE of his six decisions while posting a 4.10 ERA in seven starts (team is 2-5). His road ERA in 2016 sits at 6.14, spanning three starts and three relief stints. Meanwhile, Perez looks to notch his SIXTH consecutive win after escaping with a no-decision last Sunday, when he was reached for four runs on eight hits and three walks over 5.1 innings at St Louis. Perez has made just three career starts against Boston, going 1-1 (team is 1-2) while allowing 11 ERs on 22 hits over 16 innings (6.19 ERA).
As noted, Perez is 5-0 over his last six starts (Texas is 6-0), posting a decent 3.72 ERA. The Rangers will likely need a strong effort out of him, as Texas owns the highest bullpen ERA in the American League at 4.73. No reason to trust Buchholz, so I’ll back Perez and the Rangers, who pick up a SEVENTH straight win with the left-hander on the mound.
Bruce Marshall
Astros at Royals
Pick: Over
With Houston bouncing the Royals staff all over the Big K this weekend, and homer-0sisceptible Ian Kennedy on the mound for Kansas City, can expect another higher-scoring affair in the series finale after the first two games soared over the total. The Astros have won ten straight starts made by Doug Fister, but they have also started to score a lot of runs, which should continue today.
Scott Rickenbach
Phillies at Giants
Pick: Over 7
The Phillies have been hitting better on the road than at home of late. Yesterday's much-needed win also helps build confidence for this young Philadelphia team. While it is certainly not a hot streak it is a step in the right direction for the Phils who have now won 3 of their last 7 road games and have averaged 5.6 runs per game during this stretch. Philadelphia should scratch a few off of the Giants Johnny Cueto here as he is 1-5 with a 4.76 ERA in his 10 career starts against the Phillies. The problem for Philadelphia today is that a struggling Aaron Nola is taking the mound. The right-hander is 0-3 with an insane 15.82 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Yes, you read that right, he is allowing 3 baserunners PER INNING over his last 3 outings. Look for his struggles to resume this afternoon as the Giants had averaged 11.6 hits per game in their last 11 games before a rare tough night at the plate yesterday. The over is 19-8 this season when San Francisco is off of a loss. Also, the over is 17-9 in Giants day games this year. As a road dog of +200 to +225, the Phillies are on a long-term 36-14 run to the over. So far this month, the Phils have gone 17-7 to the over!
Gary Bart
Cardinals at Mariners
Play: Mariners -109
Both teams have struggled at times during the season and both are in the playoff hunt. This is an important game for both teams. The Mariners had been slumping heading into this series and need to start winning on a consistent basis if they want to make the playoffs.
Bob Balfe
White Sox -125
The White Sox have the pitching edge today and will take advantage of a Toronto team that is not at full strength and does not hit left handed pitching that well. Chicago has a great bullpen at home and should cash the ticket this afternoon.
OSKEIM SPORTS
St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -121
After yielding eight runs (3 earned) on hits in his first outing after being recalled from Triple-A Tacoma, Seattle southpaw James Paxton has gone 6+ innings in each of his last four starts with a 2.77 ERA over than span. Paxton also boasts a 0.73 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in two home starts this season.
The Mariners are 8-1 in their last nine interleague games, including a perfect 5-0 versus National League Central foes and 4-0 in their last four interleague clashes at home. St. Louis left-hander Jaime Garcia toes the rubber in poor form with a 5.09 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over his last three starts.
The veteran hurler also owns a 3.95 FIP on the road where he has less strikeouts and more walks than when he takes the mound at home. Garcia also owns a 4.54 FIP and 4.58 xFIP in June with a pedestrian 7.8% K-BB%. More disturbing is the fact that St. Louis is a money-burning 5-16 in its last 21 interleague games versus a left-handed starter, 0-7 in its last seven games versus American League West foes and 3-7 in its last ten games overall.
The Cardinals are also looking for a new closer after demoting Trevor Rosenthal following his third blown save of the season on Friday. Seung Hwan Oh, Kevin Siegrist and Jonathan Broxton are possible replacements, but having that role in disarray is never a good thing for a team.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -105
Texas is 27-12 at home and has won 21 of its last 27 games overall and still gets little respect from the public, leading to nice value as the Rangers open as just a slight favorite in today's game. Clay Buchholz made his first start after several appearances out of the bullpen and allowed three runs and four hits in five innings in a 3-1 loss to the White Sox. Buchholz is 3-7 with a 5.83 ERA this season and 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA against the Rangers the last three years. Texas has won Martin Perez' last six starts and he is 5-1 with a 2.61 ERA at home and the Red Sox have lost their last four games against lefty starters. The Rangers have won nine of their last 11 at home against right-handed starters and we expect more of the same in this one.
BUSTER SPORTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +134
The starting pitchers for the game are for the Rays Drew Smyly (2-7, 4.78 ERA) and he goes up against Tyler Wilson (3-5, 4.57 ERA) Smyly was one of our watch pitchers this year and he has not pitched as well as expected. He has a career 3.51 ERA and he has started to pitch better after having a dreadful May where he had a 7.18 ERA. When Smyly goes against the Orioles it has been a different story and he has had great success. Smyly is 3-0 when starting against Baltimore with a 2.27 ERA and with a WHIP of 0.884. Tyler Wilson has had no success at home for the Orioles this year. He has 0-4 record with a 5.40 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.44. When he has faced the Rays in his career he has a 12.47 ERA and a WHIP of 2.309. Our Buster Sports system has this game as a pick'em so getting plus money is great value.