Harry Bondi
CLEVELAND +110 over Detroit
We will gladly take the plus price here today with the red-hot Indians, who have won eight in a row overall and have won all eight meetings between these two teams this season. The Tribe sends Josh Tomlin to the hill and all he has done is go 8-1 with a 3.32 ERA this season with a 2.63 road ERA. We have seen this exact same pitching match-up two times already this season and Tomlin has beat Justin Verlander and the Tigers both times, allowing just three runs in 13 innings of work. It's a wrong-way favorite.
Chris Jordan
WELCOME TO THE BIG LEAGUES KID!!!
That'll be the message tonight, when the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates take the spotlight in the Sunday night televised game, mainly because of Clayton Kershaw.
But forget about the National League Cy Young candidate who leads the Majors in ERA, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio and shutouts. And forget about the ace who hasn’t lost a start since April and is in after striking out eight Nationals in seven innings of one-run ball on Monday.
No, tonight I want to talk about Chad Kuhl, who will is scheduled to make his Major Legaue debut. It's just a spot start, but oh what a spot it is.
In 14 Triple-A starts this season, Kuhl went 6-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. And while the right-hander who was a ninth round in 2013 out of the University of Delaware, ranks as the Pittsburgh Pirates number 16 prospect, he owns a career 2.79 ERA in 81 starts and boasts a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio of +2.80.
He has a solid three-pitch mix, including a sinker that rides nicely between 92-94 miles per hour, and a plus-slider, and an impressive change-up. He will mix his pitches in well, and could very well silence the Dodgers' lineup, which is tied for sixth-worst with a .237 batting average.
Let's play some value here, as Kuhl will be pitching the game of his career in this one, and could very well bring home the big price.
1* PIRATES
Brad Wilton
After Friday's 14 combined runs uprising, the Mets and the Braves got back to their low-scoring ways on Saturday, as the teams went 9 full innings with nary a crooked digit put up on the scoreboard, as the extra-inning affair pushed the teams to 5 of the last 6 meetings since last week Under the total.
The Under is now 8-2 the last 10 series showdowns since April between the East rivals.
Why not look for another Under on Sunday in the heat of HOT-lanta with Bartolo Colon and Bud Norris keeping the hitters at bay.
Both hurlers have been throwing the ball with success of late, as Colon is 2-0 his last 3 starts with a 1.80 ERA, and 2 of those 3 starts have held Under the total.
Norris meanwhile, is 1-0 his last 3 starts with an ERA just over 3, and 2 of his last 3 starts have also held Under the posted total.
Colon's last start against the Braves was a 4-1 final back on May 2nd in a game that did stay Under the total.
Go Under again in Sunday's finale.
3* N.Y. METS-ATLANTA UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Sunday is on the New York Yankees over the Minnesota Twins, and due to the big price, be sure you're playing the pinstripes on the run line at Yankee Stadium.
It doesn't appear there is any relief in sight for the Twinkies, literally and figuratively speaking.
An Eduardo Escobar error enabled a tiebreaking run to score as the Yankees eked out their 10th win in 11 games against the Twins, a 2-1 squeaker at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, the Yankees' bullpen registered a perfect stretch of 27 consecutive retired batters over three games in this series, when Andrew Miller struck out Byung Ho Park in the eighth inning Saturday.
No relief for the Twins.
And there will be none today.
Saturday’s loss was Minnesota's third in a row, and get this, in a matterm of 74 games, the Twins have slumbered into 11 losing streaks of three games or longer, a couple of them two or three times longer.
The Twins are in bad shape.
This is truly one of those games the Yankees could erupt and win something like 11-1.
Play New York on the Run Line.
3* YANKEES -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Indians and Tigers to close their 3 game series with a pitcher's duel Under between Josh Tomlin and Justin Verlander.
The host Tigers were blanked 6-0 on Saturday, but today they may do the blanking, as Justin Verlander has regained his form and comes into this start allowing 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 9 starts, and the Under stands at 6-1-1 his last 8 starts.
Tomlin stands at 4-0 this season on the road with a 2.63 ERA, and with the Tigers coming off Saturday's blank-job, they may find themselves pressing at the plate again on Sunday.
Tomlin and Verlander control the hill, and Under we go between the Tribe and the Motown Cats.
4* CELVELAND-DETROIT UNDER
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox -125
I believe we are getting ace Chris Sale and the Chicago White Sox at a huge discount today. We'll take advantage as the White Sox look to get back to .500 for the season with a win Sunday.
Sale is 12-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in 15 starts this season. The left-hander is also 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays.
Marcus Stroman is struggling this season with a 5.23 ERA in 15 starts, including a 7.31 ERA in his last three. Stroman has never beaten the White Sox, going 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA in three career starts against them.
Toronto is 2-8 (-9.0 Units) against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season. Sale is 11-2 (+8.7 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.
Brandon Lee
Mariners -123
Seattle is riding a huge wave of momentum right now. After overcoming a 3-1 deficit in the bottom of the 9th in Friday's 4-3 win, they held on to beat the Cardinals 5-4 on Saturday. I look for them to have an even easier time pulling out the victory on Sunday. The Mariners should have the edge on the mound in this one. Seattle sends outs James Paxton, who has a 3.34 ERA in 5 starts. He's been at his best at home, where he has a 0.73 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 3 starts. Cardinals will counter with Jaime Garcia, who is 5-6 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in 14 starts. He's gotten worse as the season has progressed and has a 5.09 ERA and 1.698 ERA over his last 3 starts. Simply too much value on the Mariners at home in this spot.
Jimmy Boyd
Rangers -106
Texas is showing great value here at basically a pick's at home against the Red Sox. The Rangers have a big time advantage on the mound in this one. They give the ball to Martin Perez, while Boston has to send out Clay Buchholz.
Buchholz has been in and out of the Red Sox rotation because he hasn't been able to consistently throw the ball well at all. He comes into this game with a 6.28 ERA and 1.427 WHIP in 11 starts. Perez on the other hand is 6-4 with a 3.57 ERA in 15 starts, but the key here is how well he's thrown the ball at home. He's 5-1 with a 2.61 ERA in 8 starts at Texas this year.
Boston is also 0-4 in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter. Texas is now 17-4 in their last 21 against a team with a winning record, 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 or more runs and 30-12 in their last 42 when listed with a money line of +125 to -125.
Brad Diamond
San Diego +115
The Reds have dropped 4 straight having regressed again with a 17-22 mark at home. The Padres have won 3 straight (2 in Cincinnati) taking a 7-3 up-tick into Sunday's get away game. The Reds use RHP DeSclafani who has a 1-0 record last three times out with a solid 2.30 ERA. He is off a 7 inning stint giving just 2 earned runs. The Padres lefty Perdomo comes into after 5 innings of work allowing 7 hits and 6 earned runs. Despite Perdomo's recent starts feel the hurler can get through the Reds lineup that carries a .237 BA. In the series San Diego has gone 6-1 in Cincinnati and 11-2 overall. With umpire Cuzzi calling balls and strikes the Padres are a perfect 4-0 on the road in Sunday editions. With DeSclafani the Reds are 0-6 in Sunday games, while the Reds pitching staff carries a season poor 5.51 ERA.
Dave Price
St. Louis Cardinals +116
I like the value we are getting today with the Cardinals as road underdogs to the Mariners. Jaime Garcia has been solid this season, going 5-6 with a 3.83 ERA in 14 starts. Garcia sports a 2.57 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in one lifetime starts vs. Seattle as well. Seattle is 2-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday this season. St. Louis is 6-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season.
Michael Alexander
A's vs. Angels
Play: A's -115
The Oakland Athletics attempt to complete a four-game sweep when they visit the downtrodden Los Angeles Angels in today's series finale. After scoring a total of one run in losing the final two contests of its three-game home series against its American League West rival last weekend, Oakland brought the offense to Los Angeles, recording 19 runs over the first three games. Angels starter, Santiago has won only one of his last seven starts and yielded four runs over 7 2/3 innings in a no-decision at Oakland on April 12. Los Angeles' last win came a week ago as the club enters today's with a six-game losing streak.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston -102 over TEXAS
Clay Buchholz recently spent some time in the bullpen and it may have served him well. He’s made one start since that demotion and it was a mixed bag against the South Side. Buchholz had a shaky start in that game, giving up a first-pitch homer followed by a first-pitch double to the first two batters he faced, as the Red Sox fell behind early. He allowed two homers on the night, leaving him with 14 long balls allowed in 11 starts. But there were positives to take away. Buchholz retired 11 of the final 12 batters faced, and his changeup was working for him once again with four strikeouts on the change, plus it elicited seven swings and misses. That’s not all there is to like about Buchholz either. His swing and miss rate last game was 17%. Buchholz has struck out nine batters over his last eight frames. His velocity is back up to 93 MPH. You can see the evidence of skills throughout his under the hood metrics. The checklist: buy cheap, expect little, be pleasantly surprised. Buchholz was limited to five innings (78 pitches) Tuesday because he was on a pitch count of roughly 80 after spending the last three weeks in the bullpen but he’ll be given a longer leash today. Regardless, Boston’s bullpen is decent and even if Buchholz gets roughed up, Boston has a good chance to score plenty on Martin Perez.
Perez has a 3.57 ERA after 15 starts. How he has done that is a mystery to which there are no right answers to. Perez’s WHIP of 1.39 is way above our threshold of acceptable. In 91 frames, he has walked 39 while whiffing a lousy 45. Perez’s swing and miss rate is dropping every month and is down to 4% in June. Perez's hot start to 2016 is mostly a mirage, as his inability to miss bats remains a major obstacle and he's issuing too many free passes. An elite groundball rate will help keep Perez in games, but this is not a skill set that supports any type of prolonged breakout or success. Things are starting to even out in MLB, that is the Cubbies aren’t winning every day, the A’s Twins, Braves and Reds aren’t losing every day, bad pitchers with good ERA’s are starting to get exposed and good pitchers have begun to correct their poor ERA’s. Well, this correction is twofold in that the Rangers are not that good and Perez is not a 3.57 ERA pitcher.
ATLANTA +132 over N.Y. Mets
Bartolo Colon was lifted from his start Tuesday, June 21, against the Kansas City Royals after just four pitches after suffering a bruised thumb on a comebacker in the first inning. Manager Terry Collins said Colon's thumb swelled pretty badly but the swelling has gone down and Colon will obviously make this start. Does it matter what happens to Colon? Dude could get hit by a car and he’d get up, brush himself off and make his next start just like he’s been doing for the past 50 years. If his thumb is bothering him today, he’ll rip it off his hand and throw it 74 MPH for a strike. There really isn’t a lot to say about Colon that hasn’t already been said. Here’s a guy that throws his fastball at 87 MPH 88% of the time. His swing and miss rate is 6%. He has a 42%/26%/32% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. In 14 games started this year, Colon has lost just three times while posting an ERA of 3.00. We’re not sure how it’s possible that a pitcher that throws an 87 MPH fastball 88% of the time thrives but that’s precisely what Colon is doing this year. Some things don’t make sense but Colon has been defying logic for years. At the end of the day however, Colon is still a huge risk to blow up every time he takes the mound and he’s way overpriced here.
Bud Norris has been solid in four straight appearances as a starter since June 4. Over that span, Norris has a BB/K split of 9/24 in 26 innings, a 2.77 ERA and a groundball rate of 55%. Pay no attention to Norris’s overall stats because he’s spent the majority of the year in the bullpen, a role he’s rarely had during his career, which spans 217 games (175 as a starter). Bud Norris is a starter, not a reliever. He’ll now face a Mets’ team that has logged a .624 OPS over the last week, which ranks second last in MLB ahead of only the Rays. Norris has defeated the Cubbies, Cinci and Miami in his last three games and does not take a step up in class when facing this meek offense. The Mets' win games because they have Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Matt Harvey starting almost every day and not because of their offense. Big overlay.
San Diego +115 over CINCINNATI
Life isn’t fair. Pete Rose bets on some baseball games and receives a lifetime ban from MLB while Kobe Bryant rapes a woman in Denver and gets standing ovations in his farewell tour. Meanwhile, a guy like Barry Bonds (and many others), that cheated the fans, the players and the game for years are welcomed with open arms. Michael Vick is convicted for running a dog fighting ring and the NFL can’t wait to reinstate him. Pete Rose bet on a few games and gets treated like he went on a shooting spree even after apologizing a million times. Of all the “crimes” a former baseball player could commit, Pete Rose’s was minor. To see him get inducted into the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame this weekend is a beautiful thing and long overdue. To see him get a standing ovation for more than a minute was heartwarming too. Pete Rose shed blood sweat and tears for baseball and its fans while Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro (among others) couldn't give a rats ass about the fans or the game. Pete Rose made a few bets, admitted to doing so and gets treated like a gangster. Cincinnati loves Pete Rose and so does everyone else that watched him play. He is the Gordie Howe and Mohammed Ali of baseball.
In any case, the festivities started on Friday with a pregame ceremony featuring members of the Big Red Machine celebrating the 40th anniversary of the 1976 World Series Champions. The Reds lost 13-4. On Saturday, it was a pregame Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony. More than 20 Reds Hall of Famers were in attendance, including Johnny Bench, Barry Larkin, Eric Davis, Tony Perez and more. The Reds lost 3-0. Today, there is a pregame on-field ceremony to retire Pete Rose's No. 14 jersey. The ceremony will include appearances by previous Reds legends to have their numbers retired - Johnny Bench (#5), David Concepcion (#13), Barry Larkin (#11) and Tony Perez (#24). The entire weekend takes a toll on the players. They have commitments, dinners to attend, friends and family that want tickets and who knows what else. It’s not a normal weekend. It takes these players completely out of routine, something they rarely respond well to. Additionally, Cincinnati is in a real funk right now.
Anthony DeSclafani was activated from the DL on June 10 and has made three starts. On paper, those starts look pretty but it’s a different story under the hood. DeSclafani has walked seven batters and struck out 10 in 16 innings. He has a 1.66 WHIP. His ERA is 2.30 but his xERA is 4.98. DeSclafani’s first-pitch strike rate was 44% in his last start. DeSclafani is 26-years old and has never shown any consistency in his three years. His WHIP is always high (career of 1.35) and so is his disaster starts percentage. He generates enough swinging strikes to support his K-rate levels around his career rate of 7.2 but his first-pitch strike rate is trending in the wrong direction and will end up costing him if not corrected soon. One can certainly bet him and hope for the best but as the chalk, one can also fade him instantly and feel pretty confident that a largely undesirable performance will follow. DeSclafani will now throw to one of the hottest teams in the majors.
San Diego has won three in a row and six of seven. They defeated the Nationals two straight before splitting with Baltimore in a two-game series. The Padres have scored seven runs or more in five of those seven games and they also rank in the top-3 in several offensive categories over the past 20 games that include team batting average, runs scored and OPS. The Padres are quietly doing some damage and we are not about to miss this opportunity to play them as a dog.
The Padres are a pooch here because Luis Perdomo brings a 9.00 ERA into this start. To say that surface number is misleading would be a big understatement. Perdomo’s xERA is 3.49 after 47 innings. This kid has wicked stuff. He’s been done in by a ridiculous 58% strand rate and some poor judgement calls by the official scorers that have awarded hits instead of obvious errors. Perdomo’s swing and miss rate in his last start was 21%. It’s now at 16% overall in his three starts. He also has a 56% groundball rate to go along with his 95 MPH heat with life. Perdomo is just 23 years old and he’s still green but there is no denying the talent. He has plenty to learn but he’s a talent gem that very few people are aware of. Here is some of the nastiness that Perdomo possesses.
He throws that kind of junk all game. Keep your eye on him before the market discovers how good he is. There is a ton of profit potential in his arm and whether that profit comes this year or next, it is coming. We're investing now.
Will Rogers
Philadelphia vs. San Francisco
Pick: Under
The Giants had won 12 of 13 before losing Game 2 of this home series versus the Phillies last night. The rubber match goes this afternoon, and I expect it to be another pitcher's duel.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Johnny Cueto will be on the mound for the Giants, and he's been dominant in San Francisco. Cueto (11-1, 2.06 ERA) allowed one run on four hits, striking out six in 6.2 innings in a win at Pittsburgh in his last start. He's 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA in seven starts at home, and the Giants are 9-1 in his last 10 starts.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Philly is batting just .200 over a combined 55 at bats in previous meetings with Cueto. During that span they have struck out 13 times and managed just 11 hits.
3. X-Factor - The Phillies are batting a major league worst .230 this season, and only Atlanta has scored fewer runs.
Stephen Nover
White Sox -132
Chris Sale. I want him going for me in this matchup and the price is acceptable enough. Sale is an elite pitcher and he's having one of his finest seasons. The White Sox are 12-3 this season with Sale on the mound. Chicago has won seven of the last eight times Sale has pitched at home.
Sale has a 2.25 career ERA versus the Blue Jays in four starts.
The flip side is fading a struggling Marcus Stroman, who has a 7.89 ERA this month. Stroman has yielded six or more runs in four of his last seven starts.