Free Picks for Sunday, May 28th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
RANGERS AT BLUE JAYS
PLAY: BLUE JAYS -157
No fear about going against Andrew Cashner, who has what I would call a hugely misleading ERA. There’s nothing to suggest this will continue and I expect a substantial regression from Cashner. The biggest issue is a horrendous 5.0/4.2 BB/K ratio.
The Blue Jays will send Joe Biagini, who has struggled in his last two starts after two very good efforts upon entering the rotation. But Biagini seems to be a different pitcher at home, and I would expect some improvement today.
I think there’s a pitcher advantage on the Toronto side, but what I like more here is the team momentum variable. The Jays are a different team both mentally and physically now that Donaldson and Tulowitzki have returned from lengthy disabled list stints. It’s an intangible that I think you can actually see, as this team simply has more confidence and energy with two big cogs back in action.
Steep price on this one, so rather than risk the full unit just on the money line, I’m going to split the wager between the money line and the runs line in expectation of another Blue Jays victory.
Alex Smart
Cubs vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 6½
Today we have a matchup, where the pundits expect a low scoring pitcher duel. But In my humble betting opinion it will not be a low enough scoring game for the combined score not to eclipse the posted number.
John Lester the Cubs starting pitcher today vs the host LA Dodgers is considered a top tier pitcher, but away from Wrigely Field this season he has struggled mightily , going 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in four road starts. With the Dodgers offense, doing their best work at home averaging 5.4 rpg, I will not be surprised if they reach the 5 to 6 run output in this spot, thus making the over a decent bet based on my projection. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw, and all his greatness, goes to the hill to face a desperate Cubs team, that is itching to score runs after two consecutive shutouts. I know Kershaw is in great form, but the defending World Series Champs have done their best work vs southpaws this season, scoring an average of 5.8 rpg, including 17 HRs in 13 trys and must not be underestimated in their ability to do at least some damage here today. With that said, I am recommending we wager on the OVER.
CHICAGO CUBS are 21-9 OVER L/30 in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last few seasons with a combined average of 9.7 rpg going on the board and are 17-9 OVER vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 9.7 rpg getting scored. LESTER i in 18 career games in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season has seen a combined average of 8.1 rpg scored.
Over is 6-1 in Lesters last 7 starts overall.Over is 22-6-1 in Cubs last 29 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 3-0-1 in Lesters last 4 road starts.Over is 6-1 in Kershaws last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 10-4 in Dodgers last 14 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Ray Monohan
Cardinals vs. Rockies
Play: Under 11
The St. Louis Cardinals and the Colorado Rockies face off on Saturday afternoon and with two hot pitchers on the mound, I really like the under. On the mound for the Cardinals is Lance Lynn who has pitched well all season. He has a record of 4-2 and an ERA of 2.53. In seven of his nine starts this year he has given up two runs or less.
On the mound for the Rockies is German Marquez who has also pitched really well as of late. In his last two starts he has given up one run in each of them. Three starts ago he went eight innings and gave up zero runs. He really looks to be trending in the right direction. Some trends to note. Under is 4-0 in Lynns last 4 Sunday starts. Under is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Scott Spreitzer
Angels vs. Marlins
Play: Angels -102
The Angels snapped a three-game losing streak as Cameron Maybin returned to the lineup and got two hits, scored three runs and stole two bases. Also, Mike Trout, the AL leading hitter with a .342 batting average, hit his 16th home run as Los Angeles won 5-2. The Angels have won five of Matt Shoemaker's last six starts, including 4-0 at Tampa Bay on Tuesday when he pitched six shutout innings on three hits. Shoemaker also has done his best work on the road where he has a 2.79 ERA in five starts. He'll be facing the Marlins for the first time in his career. Jose Urena comes off his worst outing of the year allowing six runs and two homers in five innings in the Marlins' 11-9 win at Oakland. Miami is only 7-15 at home and it has lost 22 of its last 29 interleague games against right-handed starters and 37 of its last 53 interleague contests overall.
Marc Lawrence
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -115
Edges - Brewers: 3-0 last three games against Corbin… Diamondbacks: Corbin 7.88 ERA and 1.69 WHIP away as opposed to 3.27 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season. With the visiting team 1-9 in Corbin’s starts this season, we recommend a 1* play on Milwaukee.
Jesse Schule
Dodgers -158
The Dodgers are a big favorite at home versus the Cubs Sunday afternoon, but not as big of a favorite as we normally see when Clayton Kershaw takes the mound at home.
Kershaw (7-2, 2.01 ERA) tossed a complete game, allowing one run on three hits with 10 strikeouts at home against the Cardinals his last time out. He's 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA in five home starts, and 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts in the afternoon in 2017. The Cubs lineup is hitting a minuscule .155 over a combined 84 at bats versus Kershaw.
The Cubs hand the ball to Jon Lester, who hasn't been all that sharp on the road. Lester (3-2, 3.19 ERA) tossed a complete game, allwwing one run on four hits with 10 strikeouts in a home win over the Giants his last time out. He's 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in four starts away from Wrigley.
The Dodgers have a history of struggling versus left-handed pitchers, but they are 6-1 in their last seven versus southpaws.
Dustin Hawkins
Oakland at New York
Play: New York -170
The Yankees are 24-12 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control that has less than 1.75 walks per start in past 2 seasons. Oakland is only 4-20 after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the past 2 seasons. Yankee pitcher Michael Pineda is 3-1 lI fetid vs. the A's with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.000.
John Ryan
Marlins +100
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Miami is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons.
So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following system has gone 38-11 hitting 78% winners and has made 25.4 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) that are an average AL hitting team batting less than .260 on the season and with a starting pitcher that gives up 1 or more HR's/start and is now facing a good NL starting pitcher posting an ERA of less than 3.70.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Angels are just 0-8 (-8.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a struggling team winning less than 38% of their games in games played over the last 3 seasons.
Angels are a near-imperfect 1-9 (-8.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.
Methodology Discussion Points
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Marlins today.
Ryan’s SIM went 1-1 Saturday, but added profits since both were dogs plays. This is one of the major keys to Ryan’s SIM program and wagering discipline. So, get today’s plays and look for a very strong result. The research reports are always filled with extensive and meaningful advanced analytics and proven systems and game situations.
Will Rogers
Cubs vs Dodgers
Pick: Over 6.5
The set-up: The defending champs have come to LA and been shut out in the first two of this three-game series with the Dodgers, losing 4-0 on Friday and 5-0 on Saturday. Chicago had won seven of nine before visiting Dodger Stadium and now find themselves (along with the Cards), a half-game back of the Brewers in the NL Central at 25-23. As for the Dodgers, they have now won three straight and eight of their last 10 to move to 30-20. That includes a sparkling 20-8 home mark and LA opens Sunday a half-game back of Arizona and 1 1/2 games behind the Rockies in the NL West, a division they have won each of the last four seasons.
The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (3-2 & 3.19 ERA) gets the ball for the Cubs and Clayton Kershaw (7-2 & 2.01 ERA) for the Dodgers. Lester is coming off an outstanding performance against San Francisco on Tuesday, a four-hitter in which he struck out 10 and allowed one run. It was the second straight strong outing the veteran lefty but he has struggled away from Wrigley Field, going 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in four road starts (team is 1-3). Lester is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA in eight career starts against the Dodgers (teams are 5-3), including a no-decision earlier this season in which he gave up one run and four hits while striking out seven over six innings. Kershaw was also outstanding on Tuesday, as he struck out 10 while allowing one run and three hits over nine innings but settling for a no-decision as the Dodgers needed extra innings (13) to beat the Cards, 2-1. He has posted eight straight quality starts and recorded nine in his 10 outings this season. Kershaw is 6-4 with a 2.33 ERA in 10 career starts against the Cubs (LA is 6-4).
The pick: A Lester vs. Kershaw matchup is "as good as it gets" but don't be too quick to say "under." After all, Lester's struggled on the road this season (5.73 ERA & 1.91 WHIP!) and LA has averaged 5.39 RPG here at Chavez Ravine.
Power Sports
Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
Without question, the Giants have been one of baseball's biggest disappointments thus far in 2017. All yesterday's win did was snap a four-game losing streak and they're still second to last in the NL West w/ the 2nd worst run differential (-68) in the entire Senior Circuit. But w/ Johnny Cueto pitching this afternoon against Atlanta, they should be able to make it B2B wins for the 1st time in over a week.
Cueto's numbers to this point hardly indicate dominance. Last time out, he allowed 3 HR's in a loss to the Cubs (wind was clearly blowing out that day). But he does sport a 36-7 KW ratio in May. Note that he'd allowed only 2 HR's his previous four turns to the Cubs start. While the Giants have a terrible record on the road (9-19), they are now over .500 at home following yday's win.
Remember that Atlanta is w/o its best hitter, Freddie Freeman, for the forseeable future. Speaking of the home run ball, today's starter R.A. Dickey has been plagued by it throughout his career. Having already given up 11 in nine starts, the knuckleballer is well on his way to a sixth straight season allowing 24 or more. He's winless over his last four starts and has a 1.80 WHIP over the last three. In May, he has more walks (15) than strikeouts (12).
Larry Ness
New York at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The Mets won 8-1 on Friday night but the Pirates erased a pair of two-run deficits to even the three-game series with a 5-4 victory in 10 innings Saturday night. John Jaso supplied a pinch-hit RBI single in the ninth to force extra innings and then delivered the game-winning RBI in the 10th to cap the walk-off victory. The Pirates lost six in a row from May 7-12 but have now won nine of their last 14. The Mets know something about losing streaks as well, dropping seven straight from May 10-17. They are just 4-4 since that slide and at 20-27, find themselves 9 1/2 back of the Nats in the NL East.
The pitching matchup features Matt Harvey (3-3, 5.36 ERA) vs Tyler Glasnow (2-3, 6.69 ERA). Harvey continues to struggle in an effort to return to the form he showed when earning the starting assignment for the 2013 All-Star Game at Citi Field in his first full season with the Mets. He did end a six-start winless drought in his last start and will now be looking for back-to-back victories for the first time since winning his first two outings of the season. Although he recorded a victory his last time out by limiting San Diego to two runs on three hits over five innings, Harvey has failed to pitch beyond 5.1 innings in five consecutive starts. He's 0-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh (Mets are 0-3). Tyler Glasnow has permitted three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, but he failed to pitch beyond five innings in four of them. Glasnow has also struggled at home in 2017, posting a 6.00 ERA and 1.62 WIP but the Piartes are actually 3-2 in his home starts.
New York's starters aren't giving them enough innings, leaving the bullpen overworked. Starters Noah Syndergaard (right lat muscle injury) and Steven Matz (left elbow inflammation) are out with no set return date and then we have Harvey. In his All-Star season of 2013 he allowed seven HRs homers and 31 walks in 178.1 innings. He takes the mound tonight having allowed 11 HRs and 26 walks in just 50.1 innings in 2017. I'll take the home team.
Big Al
San Diego vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The Nats might be the best team in the N.L. right now, with a record of 30-18 (the Rockies are actually slightly better, record-wise). Thus, anything less than a series sweep against the Padres would be considered a disappointment. San Diego is a team in total disarray right now, so even with the back-end of the Nats rotation heading to the mound today in the form of RHP Joe Ross, this game still looks like a mismatch. And the truth is that were Ross in San Diego - a place where his brother Tyson pitched for three years - he might be the #2 or #3 starter at worst. Ross threw a gem his last time out right here at Nats Park, dismantling the Mariners with eight innings of one-run, five-hit ball on the way to a lopsided 10-1 final. He will look to make it two in a row this afternoon, and should get it, as the Nats are 6-1 in Ross's last seven home starts and they are 13-3 in their last 16 home starts vs. teams with a losing record.
MMA OddsBreaker
Cirkunov v Oezdemir
Pick: Over 1.5
I think this light heavyweight bout is closer than the betting odds indicate, however I am not moved to pull the trigger on Oezdemir. I do see this as a dog or pass situation, but I am going to ultimately make a pass on playing the underdog, and instead make a play on the Total here. I like the Over 1.5 rounds at -115, as I think there is a good chance this 205-pound contest hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision. I think the line for the Over 1.5 rounds total should be -180, so I think there’s good value in the current offering price. Cirkunov is coming off a first round submission of Nikita Krylov, while Oezdemir is coming off a split decision win over Ovince St. Preux. Both 205-pounders will be looking to keep their records unblemished heading into this matchup.
Jim Feist
Rays at Twins
Pick: Over
Tampa Bay is #11 in baseball in runs scored. Starter Alex Cobb has been struggling and batters are hitting .271 off him on the road. Tampa Bay is 6-1 over the total on the road and the Over is 11-1 in Cobb's last 12 road starts. Minnesota is 46-13-2 over the total at home against a team with a losing road record. The over is 16-5 when these teams clash, including 20-7 over in this park.