SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay -1½ +160 over MINNESOTA
The Twinkies are favored here so you can take TB in the -102 to -110 range but we’re going to play this on the ALTERNATE RUN LINE. The total in this game is o9½ -120 so there figures to be some runs scored and it’s for that reason we have no problem playing the visiting team and spotting an extra half run with a big takeback. Besides, Alex Cobb is vastly superior to Kyle Gibson, thus it’s the Rays that are likely going to be doing the majority of the scoring.
Alex Cobb missed the entire 2015 season because of TJS. Prior, he was regarded as one of the best prospects in baseball and put up some great numbers in 2014 to validate it. He also missed most of last season so we’re talking about a pitcher coming of a long hiatus but Cobb is just 29 years old and he’s rounding back into form. Indeed, Cobb struggled, perhaps predictably, in those tentative first steps back from May 2015 TJS. Entering that season, we were touting him as a potential breakout star, and he had the skills to back it up. He surely still owns those skills and has needed a couple of months this year to find them again. With a 55% groundball rate and more swinging strikes and K’s, Cobb is trending in the right direction again while Kyle Gibson is hanging by the hair on his chiny-chin-chin.
Kyle Gibson has carried breakout potential for five years but has never been able to turn his good stuff into good skills and now things have gone from bad to worse. This is a five-year abused starter that is afraid to throw strikes anymore because of all that abuse. Some guys can handle being called up to the show prematurely without a lot of seasoning and others can’t. Gibson is the latter. His first-pitch strike rate is 50%. He has walked 17 batters and struck out 21 in 31 frames. Over his last 14 frames, Gibson has walked 10 batters and struck out nine. He has an ERA/xERA split of 8.62/6.17. He’s hittable, he has a strained relationship with the plate and as soon as there’s traffic on the bases, he gets all nervous, slows down and becomes even more hittable. Kyle Gibson would make a great fifth starter in the minors.
HOUSTON -1½ +103 over Baltimore
There are a lot of pitching mismatches today and we’re not going to be afraid to attack them by spotting 1½-runs. This is one of those mismatches and perhaps the biggest on the board. Aside from that, the Orioles are losing frequently because they are an easy lineup to tame as long as the starting pitcher knows his ass from a hole in the ground. Good pitchers should blow away this lineup because the only things they can hit are fastballs.
Lance McCullers has an impressive line at home and a great set of numbers against Baltimore and that’s because he might be the best pitcher in the AL. The Astros right-hander has a sick BB/K split of 17/65 in 59 innings to go along with a just as sick 61% groundball rate. McCullers is putting up Clayton Kershaw, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton-like numbers and should have his way with the O’s all day long. The Orioles have been shut out twice this week.
Alec Asher will make his first start since May 2, but the 25-year-old swingman could be auditioning for a more permanent spot in Buck Showalter’s rotation. The aggregate skill set for the Houston batting order is one that sets up to pound right-handed fly-ball pitchers and Asher is exactly that. The Astros notched a .765 OPS and they have a .795 mark in May. The Orioles acquired Asher in a trade with the Phillies in exchange for cash or a player to be named later. In other words, the Phillies, who can’t afford to be giving away 23-year-old pitchers, wanted nothing to do with Asher and gave him away for nothing. This is nothing but an ordinary pitcher that locates well but his pitches are straight and hittable. Nothing more needs to be said about this mismatch.
TORONTO -1½ +125 over Texas
Guess who’s feeling pretty good these days? After an injury filled first two months, the Blue Jays managed to hold the fort until they got some key bodies back. Sitting just 6½-games out of first and just three games under .500, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and Ricky Martin are all back in the lineup and Devon Travis is swinging one of the hottest sticks in baseball. This Toronto lineup is scary again and Andrew Cashner is very likely going to pay the price.
With a strong 3.18 ERA in his first eight starts of 2017 and pitching at least half his games in a hitter’s park, there are going to be some folks jumping on Cashner’s bandwagon today but we’re urging you to not be one of them. Cashner’s xERA points to poor skills and it can be broken day piece by piece. First, he’s walked more batters (25) than he’s struck out (21) over 45 innings. The Jays are one of the best teams’ in baseball in working the count. Cashner’s BB/K ratio is wretched. Cashner’s swing and miss rate is 5% and his first-pitch strike rate is 52%. To make matters worse, his velocity (92 mph) doesn’t reach his 2012-15 levels when he was throwing 94-97 mph. His hit % and strand % are saving him from being torched every single game. This is a pitcher with no redeeming skills and a lot of flat pitches in the zone. For Andrew Cashner, this will likely get ugly fast.
Joe Biagini was thrust into important innings late last year and handled it intrepidly. Those late control gains stuck this year, which should come as no surprise given his top-tier first-pitch strike rate of 65% and his concurrent surge in swing and miss stuff also supports an increase in strikeouts. Joe Biagini’s has a BB/K split of 8/30 in 36 innings and he also owns an elite 60% groundball. He’s been thrust into the rotation now because of injuries and will likely be stretched out further today in this, his fifth start of the year. With that groundball tilt, excellent control, 11% swing and miss rate and lack of big LH/RH splits, he's got the makings of good starter but this is more a fade on Cashner because the Jays are in line to torch him big time.
St. Louis -1½ +195 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
10-12 + 16.78 units
Bruce Marshall
Tampa Bay AT Minnesota
Pick: Over
There is a hard-to-conceal "over" bent in recent Minnesota games started by Kyle Gibson, which is no surprise considering his sky-high ERA at 8.62. Indeed, in his last four starts, Twins games have totaled a staggering 61 runs! With Tampa Bay swinging hot bats and Rays starter Alex Cobb also a bit up-and-down, the "over" intrigues again in a Gibson start.
Bob Balfe
Nationals -1.5 +120
We will go with the same play as yesterday. The Padres just cant generate any runs playing in a ball park in which the Nationals thrive. Washington can put up a crooked number on the board in any given inning so it would take a rare monster night out of the Padres bats to keep up.
Wunderdog
San Antonio @ Minnesota
Pick: San Antonio +15
San Antonio is winless, but covering games (3-1 ATS). There is also plenty of hope to improve as Kelsey Plum saw her first NBA action on Thursday. Plum was the first overall selection in April's WNBA Draft and played against Dallas after missing San Antonio's first three games because of an ankle injury. The team scored 82 points, the highest point total of the season by 10 points. The Stars are on a 16-7 spread run after a defeat. Minnesota is a big favorite at home, but has little reason to go all out with a three-game trip on deck. Minnesota has failed to cover four of its last five home games, including the last one, an 80-78 win over Connecticut as a -12.5 favorite. Look for the visitors to slow the pace down and hang within this huge number.