DAVE COKIN
RED SOX AT BLUE JAYS
PLAY: RED SOX -135
So I’ll get the bad stuff out of the way at the top. The Red Sox have lost three straight. Toronto has suddenly won four in a row. Boston will have to figure out what to do if there’s a save situation, as I would be shocked if Craig Kimbrel is available here. The Red Sox closer threw a career high number of pitches on Saturday and I doubt he’ll even be considered for action today.
I’m not huge on backing pitchers simply based on career ledgers vs. an opponent. It’s small sample stuff for the most part and can frequently be dismissed as extraneous info. But in the case of David Price vs. the Blue Jays, there’s just no way to avoid it. Price is now an amazing 17-2 lifetime against Toronto. That includes 11-1 at this site.
Beyond those numbers, Price is also in better form than RA Dickey, his mound adversary today. Dickey has been reasonably effective for the most part, but he is having long ball issues and he has also been knocked around twice by Boston already this season.
Normally. I won’t consider laying a price on the road with a team on a losing streak when facing a team on a winning streak. There has to be something extraordinary in play for that to take place. That’s where those Price numbers take over. Beyond that, the Red Sox were an unhappy bunch after the Saturday fiasco, as they felt they gave the game away. They’re right about that. Christian Vazquez makes a reality bad throw, Travis Ford does the same, Hanley Ramirez can’t catch a ball I think he still has to catch. That’s how a team loses a game they should have won.
This one is square to be sure, as I’m sure not the only one who knows Price is 17-2 against the Blue Jays. But this is where aces are supposed to step up and be stoppers, so I’ll give Price some backing today and will go with the Red Sox to salvage the series finale.
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit vs. Oakland
Play: Oakland -152
Oakland o off a bg blowout win 12-3 over Detroit and that win sets them up in a Powerful 82% system that plays on home favorites off a 5+ runs win scoring 10+ runs. The Tigers are just 3-6 and hit .211 vs leftys. They have Pelfrey going and he has a 6.32 era this year and a 11.04 era vs Oakland. Hill is on the Mound for Oakland and he has a 2.18 Era and went 7 scoreless in his only start vs Detroit. Look for Oakland to take this one.
Stephen Nover
New York at Tampa Bay
Play: New York -101
You can count on one hand how many pitchers throw harder than Nathan Eovaldi. He's never been a consistent winner, though. However, that is changing now that he's mixing his velocity becoming more pitcher than thrower while improving his splitter pitch.
Eovaldi also is aided mentally knowing he doesn't have to hold back. He can go all out for six innings because the Yankees have the best trio of relievers in baseball to pitch the seventh, eighth and ninth innings with Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.
All three of those stud relief pitchers are fresh since none of them pitched on Saturday when the Yankees were blown out by the Rays thanks to another terrible outing by Michael Pineda. Eovaldi is going through his best stretch posting a 2.16 ERA in his last four starts. New York is 9-2 in Eovaldi's last 11 road starts.
The Yankees are going against righty Jake Odorizzi, who has been wild his last two starts walking seven in 10 innings and has a 4.09 daytime ERA. Odorizzi has a 5.40 career ERA in eight starts against the Yankees. He hasn't pitched at Tropicana Field since May 13 when he allowed five runs - including three homers - in just four innings during a 6-3 loss to Oakland.
The Yankees have won their last five games when facing a righty starter. They also have captured six of their past seven road matchups.
Tampa Bay is three games under .500 at home and has lost six of its last eight games. The Rays are down a pair of underrated players with infielder Logan Forsythe and outfielder Kevin Kiermaier both on the DL.
Marc Lawrence
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: White Sox -144
Edges: White Sox: Chris Sale 18-3 career team starts during May, and 5-0 with 1.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP away team starts this season. Royals: Edinson Volquez 2-4 with 5.41 ERA last six overall team starts. With Sale in commanding KW form with 31 K’s and 5 BB’s his last four starts, and 3-0 in his steam starts during the day this season, we recommend a 1* play on the White Sox.
Scott Spreitzer
Detroit vs. Oakland
Play:Oakland -150
The A's had a breakout performance at the plate yesterday, scoring a dozen runs in a 12-3 win. Today, they'll feature their most effective starting pitcher in 2016, Rich Hill. The veteran left-hander owns a 2.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .206 BAA in 10 starts this season. The A's have won each of his last four starts, where he's held opponents to a .183 BAA. And, Hill has allowed just two home runs in 57 2/3 IP this season. His counterpart, Mike Pelfrey has not fared quite so well, including allowing 10 home runs and a .347 BAA in 47 innings. The right-hander has faced Oakland three times over the last few years, getting smacked around for 18 earned runs, 31 base runners, and four home runs in 14 2/3 IP. That's a hefty 11.02 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, and a 2.45 HRs per 9 IP ratio. The two starters matched up on April 26 in Detroit with the A's coming away victorious in a 5-1 win. Hill was fantastic and Pelfrey was not. I expect more of the same here. The Tigers have won just three of their last 12 road games, while Oakland will aim for their 5th straight win with Rich Hill on the mound.
Art Aronson
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Under 7
Chris Sale (9-1. 2.26 ERA) is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing six runs off seven hits with four walks and seven K’s over just 3.1 innings in a setback to the Tribe on Tuesday. Sale is going to have a few duds over the course of the year, he’d been near-perfect up to that point and he’ll now look to get back on track in Kansas City, note that he’s a ridiculous 5-0 with a tiny 1.41 ERA away from friendly confines thus far this season. Edinson Volquez (5-4, 3.67) heads to the hill for the home side, he most recently gave up four runs (two earned) off six hits and three walks to go along with six K’s over six innings in a victory over the Twins on Tuesday. Volquez has struggled with consistency at times this year, but has to be feeling pretty confident tonight as he’s 3-2 with a very respectable 2.06 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date. With these two competent starters going head-to-head on Sunday afternoon, the UNDER does indeed become a legitimate investment option.
Jim Feist
Marlins vs. Braves
Play: Under 7
Atlanta is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of weak offense square off. Miami is in town, 20th in baseball in runs scored. Starter Tom Koehler has turned things around, allowing 3, 2, 1 and 1 run the last four starts and the last three years has a 3.57 ERA against Atlanta. Miami is on an 8-3 run under the total, including 7-1 under against a righty starter. He faces a bad Atlanta offense, last in baseball in runs scored and slugging. Julio Teheran has a 2.57 ERA but only one win as the offense can't score for him. Teheran allowed only one run on three hits and struck out 12 in seven innings against Milwaukee on Tuesday, a 2-1 defeat. Teheran has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball during the past month with an 0.80 ERA over the past five starts. Atlanta is 14-4-1 under the total at home vs. a team with a winning record, plus 15-5-3 under when they face a righty starter at home. And the Under is 7-3 in Teheran's last 10 starts vs. Marlins.
Matt Josephs
Orioles vs. Indians
Play: Over 9
Mike Clevinger makes his first major league home start on Sunday. The starter has allowed 10 runs and 12 hits in road outings at Chicago and Cincinnati with neither offense representing the challenge Baltimore does. The Orioles have 10 runs so far in the series and are putting up 4.5 runs per contest on the road. They are hitting .253 in day games going over in nine of 12. Pardon me if I'm not quite a believer in Chris Tillman. He's 6-1 with a 2.61 ERA in 10 starts this season. That ERA goes up to 3.79 on the road. The Tribe have gone over in 15 of their 21 home games where they are averaging well over five runs per game. This is an offense that has the potential to light teams up. They have scored four runs or more in six straight and 11 of their last 13. I think this one goes over the total on Sunday afternoon.
MMA OddsBreaker
Jessica Eye v Sara McMann
Pick: Jessica Eye
Sara McMann and Jessica Eye are both in the middle of two-fight losing streaks. Both have had issues with getting outgrappled during that streak. McMann is not great with submissions despite being an Olympic silver medalist in woman's wrestling. I expect McMann will attempt to utilize her wrestling while Eye will try to work McMann over on the feet. Both girls have some power and both have been knocked down in recent fights. If this fight stays standing, Eye should have a big technical striking edge and should do some damage with her lead jab.
If Eye can keep from being taken down, I expect her to either win a decision due to superior striking or potentially even knock McMann out. I like Eye as an underdog here as McMann has not looked particularly good in any of her last four fights.
Don Best Consensus
St. Louis Cardinals at Washington
Pick: Washington
The Nationals have won 14 consecutive starts made by Strasburg, and WAS are 22-2 in Strasburgs last 24 Sun. starts. Cardinals starter Wacha hasn't gotten out of the 4th inning in his last three starts.
Brad Wilton
Sunday's comp play release is for both the Marlins and the Braves to continue to struggle putting runners on and getting them around the base paths and across the dish.
Yesterday the teams did play a rare Over, but Miami is still Under the total in 3 of their last 5. The Under is also 7-4 in the Marlins last 11 games overall.
Atlanta's Under run is even more impressive, as the Braves are 5-1-1 Under in their last 7 contests, and 11-6-1 Under in their last 18 games played.
Tom Koehler has made 9 starts this season, and 6 have held Under the total, including each of his last 3.
Julio Teheran has seen the Under go 5-3-2 in his 10 starts, and each of his last 3 starts have held Under as Teheran's ERA is a scant 0.83.
Marlins-Braves 0,0,0,0's all day long. Under we go!
3* MIAMI-ATLANTA UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Toronto Blue Jays, who are back to playing like the same club that made a deep run in the American League playoffs last season.
I thought the Boston Red Sox were dangerous on offense, but wow, what a win for Toronto the last two nights. On Friday, Josh Donaldson homered twice and finished with five RBIs to lead the Blue Jays to a 7-5 victory. Last night it was a marathon win for the Jays, 10-9.
The Jays will win once again, tonight against the Red Sox.
Toronto has won seven of its last nine to get above .500 for the first time in two weeks, and is seeing a nice surge by Donaldson, who won the AL MVP while batting .297 with 41 homers and 123 RBIs in 2015. He was struggling at the plate, but has put together a couple of solid nights at the plate.
I'll take a shot here, as the home team rolls.
3* BLUE JAYS
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 61-52 run with free picks: Chicago at KANSAS CITY (+120)
The STORYLINE in this game today - It's been an interesting two months for the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals, who have now won nine of 12, and appear to be back on track after a rough start to the season. The Royals lost some consistency from the starting rotation, when Johnny Cueto went to San Francisco, but they've certainly found a groove as of late, and that's why I'm taking the dog price with the Royals against the Chicago White Sox.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The division race is providing a lot of momentum for the middle three teams in the division, They're all on a run, as second-place Cleveland has also won eight of 12, while the fourth-place Tigers have won nine of 12. A sweep of the White Sox over the weekend could find Kansas City in first place, if the Indians lose today. The Royals want to move upward with immediacy.
BOTTOM LINE is - Chicago is struggling at the moment, having lost five straight and eight of 12. Thursday night's lid-lifter was postponed, which meant a wasted night, and more to think about with that losing streak. Then the White Sox lost 7-5 on Friday night and then last night's unbelieveable heartbreaker, as the Royals trailed 7-1 in the bottom of the seventh, but pevailed. There's nothing worse than being on the road, on a losing skid, and losing like the Sox did. Just ruins the mood. It's Sunday afternoon in Kansas City, and I think the Royals win with ease here.
3* ROYALS
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Under in the White Sox-Royals finale from Kauffman Stadium.
Why not? I mean, all Chris Sale has done is win 9 of his first 10 decisions this year. Sale is coming off his worst start in quite some time - 3-plus innings, 7 hits, and 6 runs allowed to Cleveland - and I don't see that effort being repeated here on Sunday.
The Kansas City bats woke up late on Saturday, but 12 of Sale's last 15 starts against the Royals have indeed held Under the total.
Edison Volquez will look to keep pace with Sale, and Volquez has won 2 of his last 3 starts with an ERA of just over 3. The Under is 6-3-1 in Volquez' 10 season starts too.
Look for plenty of goose eggs on the scoreboard today, as the White Sox and Royals hold Under the total.
2* CHICAGO-KANSAS CITY UNDER
Larry Ness
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Julio Teheran knows all about pitching well but not having anything to show for it. He has posted a 1.17 ERA in his last seven starts, including giving up three ERs over 33.2 innings (0.80 ERA) in five starts during May. He’s allowed just six ERs in his last seven starts, posting a 45-6 KW ratio, yet Atlanta is 2-5 in those outings. However, as poor as the Braves have played this season (Atlanta is tied with Minnesota at 14-34, a MLB-worst), they've somehow been at their best against the Miami Marlins. The Braves are averaging just 3.2 RPG on the season but after Saturday’s 7-2 win, have averaged 5.8 RPG while going 5-0 against the Marlins.
The Marlins may have won the final SEVEN meetings between the two clubs in 2015 but Miami manager Don Mattingly told MLB's official website, “It's now 0-5 in 2016. It tells you you're not playing good enough in those games to win games." Can Miami end its woes against Atlanta up against Teheran, with Tom Koehler (2-5, 4.79 ERA) getting the nod? He was roughed up for six runs (five earned) on nine hits in 3.2 innings of a 6-4 loss to Atlanta back on April 16. Koehler comes in 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA while the Marlins have lost all FIVE of his May starts. He has struggled mightily with his control, issuing five walks in each of his last three starts.
Getting back to Teheran, yes he’s 1-4 on the season with Atlanta going 2-8 in his 10 starts. However, he owns a 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP (just 48 hits allowed in 63 innings) with opponents batting only .206 against him. Teheran is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 career starts against Miami (Braves are 8-4), while Koehler is 2-5 in 11 career starts vs the Braves (teams are 3-8.), posting a 4.24. Yes, the Braves are 0-6 in Teheran’s six home starts this season but that’s after going 35-14 (.714) in his home starts the last three seasons (2013-15).
Braves get the sweep and Teheran picks up a much-deserved “W.”