Dave Essler
Cardinals +1.5 -125
I can't leave it alone. St. Louis is scoring runs - they're doing what they do, which is get hit in key situations - they're averaging almost 6 runs a game this week. Only five teams have scored LESS than the Nationals this week - if they're not betting this game to go over - then they think that Wacha will give the Cards a good start, and I think the Cards will score off Strasburg.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Dallas
Pick: Dallas +105
Disappointing Chicago is winless on the road and riding a four-game skid. Defense is the problem, allowing 85.2 ppg -- ninth in the league. Chicago has only played once with its full lineup since point guard Courtney Vandersloot has missed the last three games with an ankle injury. The Sky are also 9-23 ATS against the Western Conference. Dallas has a winning record for its new fans after moving here from Tulsa. Dallas has excellent balance, fifth in points scored, fourth in rebounding and sixth in points allowed. Courtney Paris is second in the league in rebounding with 11.8 per game and third in field-goal percentage at 58.3, while Odyssey Sims is averaging 17 points per game. This is the third straight home contest for Dallas and the wagering value is on the home team to win the game.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -116
The Baltimore Orioles have a huge advantage on the mound today over the Cleveland Indians. As a result, we'll back the Orioles at a very generous price of -116 road favorites here Sunday.
Chris Tillman is having a great season at 6-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 10 starts. He has not cooled off one bit, going 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in his last three starts. Tillman is 4-2 with a 3.89 ERA in seven career starts against Cleveland as well.
Mike Clevinger is no more than a fill-in starter for the Indians. He is 0-1 with an 8.71 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in two starts this season. He has given up 10 earned runs and three homers over 10 1/3 innings pitched this year.
Cleveland is 2-10 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last two seasons. The Orioles are 6-1 in Tillman's last seven starts overall. Baltimore is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Brandon Lee
Marlins vs. Braves
Play: Braves -125
Atlanta has a chance to win 3 in a row for the first time mid April. I like their chances with Julio Teheran on the mound. Teheran has a 0.83 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.57 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 10 starts overall. Miami will send out Tom Koehler, who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.723 WHIP in 9 starts and is 1-3 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.975 WHIP in 5 road starts. Marlins are just 6-20 in their last 26 off a loss to a division opponent as a favorite.
Sean Higgs
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 8½
I will fade RA at home. Guy has a 5.64 ERA here and is facing a Boston line-up that is one of the best in the league. David Price is sporting a 4+ road ERA and the Blue Jays have guys that can really power the ball. S
Jimmy Boyd
Rangers +105
Texas is showing great value here as a small home dog against the Pirates on Sunday. After getting beat badly in the series opener Friday, the Rangers bounced back with a 5-2 win on Saturday and are going to come out motivated to take the series with a win today.
Francisco Liriano has really struggled on the road this season. He's 1-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in 5 road starts. The Rangers counter with Martin Perez, who comes in with a 2.33 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 2.08 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 5 home starts.
Rangers are 12-4 in their last 16 home games after playing 2 or more consecutive games at home, 9-2 in their last 11 interleague home games against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a left-handed starter.
Michael Alexander
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Royals +135
The Kansas City Royals have experienced more than their fair share of injuries in the presence of the Chicago White Sox this season, but even that hasn't stopped the defending world champions' recent domination of their American League Central rivalry. After staging a seven-run ninth-inning rally in their most recent win over the White Sox to move into a tie for second place in the division, the Royals look to complete a three-game home sweep today. Kansas City starter has fared much better at home (3-2, 2.06) than on the road (2-2, 6.55). Volquez went 2-2 in five starts against the White Sox last season, giving up no more than two earned runs in any of them.
Dave Price
Oakland A's -137
The Oakland A's put up 12 runs yesterday in a blowout victory over the Tigers. Look for their bats to stay red hot against the Detroit Tigers tonight. They'll be up against Mike Pelfrey, who is still looking for his first win of the season. Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.830 WHIP in nine starts this season. Rich Hill has been the best starter for the A's this season. The left-hander is 7-3 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 10 starts this year. Hill is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his lone lifetime start vs. Detroit, pitching 7 shutout innings in a 5-1 victory. Pelfrey has never beaten the A's, going 0-3 with an 11.04 ERA and 2.113 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +197 over CHICAGO
The Cubbies have won four in a row to run their overall record to 33-14. However, prior to that they had lost eight of 12 and we can promise you that they are not a .700 ball club. The Cubs have had extreme fortune in stringing together hits to create big innings. That’s not going to last. Chicago is hitting .251 overall. Over their past 20 games, they are hitting .238. They have zero sacrifices (that’s right 0), over their past 15 games, which means no fly-ball outs to score a run and no successful bunts either. The Cubbies strike out a lot, they don’t hit for a high average, yet they are playing .704 ball because every bounce has gone their way this year. We’re not saying that the Cubs are weak. The numbers scream out that this is not even close to being one of the best teams ever assembled so don’t be surprised to see them playing about .550 ball or so the rest of the way. Chicago is likely going to remain overpriced daily and that means we have to start fading them until their unsustainable record corrects itself. The same goes for 37-year old John Lackey.
Vincent Velasquez's skills are outstanding. He consistently racks up a lot of strikeouts, and it's fully supported by a high rate of swings and misses (13%). Here’s a starter with a great arm that is getting more confident with each passing start. He has 61 K’s in 52 frames. His strong arsenal points to bright future with a big fastball, great changeup and a strikeout curve. Velasquez brings a 2.75 ERA into this start to face a team that has never seen him before. It may not work out because this is one lousy game in which anything can happen but it’ll be a cold day in hell when we refuse a price like this with a starter as good as Velasquez has been. Play the value and let the chips fall where they may.
Cincinnati +140 over MILWAUKEE
We almost always like to back a team after they snapped a losing or winning streak because the same result that snapped that streak often follows. The Reds rallied from a 6-2 late deficit to defeat the Brewers yesterday. That broke an 11-game losing streak and lifts a weight off their shoulder too. Both the Brewers and Jimmy Nelson are simply not strong enough to be priced in this range. Nelson is a pitcher with a moderate ceiling who has started the season strongly (2.92 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). However, he's just another quick starter who is outperforming his skills. In fact, his skill foundation is below average with 3.3 BB’s/9 a marginal 8% swing and miss rate, a 58% first-pitch strike rate and 37% ball%. Regression is coming.
The fact that Brandon Finnegan is a lefty is enough reason alone to back the Reds here taking back a tag like this one. The Brewers are hitting a mere .231 versus southpaws. No team has struck out more times over the past 15 games than Milwaukee’s 172 times. That’s an absolutely incredible number. Finnegan is a hard throwing lefty that has had some good fortune and while we have our concerns about him, he’s still a lefty that has allowed three runs or less in all but one of his 10 starts. An oppBA of .234 this year after pitching half his games at Great American is another good number that puts him on our radar. At the end of the day, it goes back to the same thing; Milwaukee just doesn’t win enough games to be priced in this range.
CLEVELAND +108 over Baltimore
The Orioles are very simply not good enough to be 27-20. They are not even good enough to be 20-27. While they have some very nice pieces (every team does), this is mostly a collection of power hitters with very weak bat-on-ball skills. The Orioles have struck out 143 times over their past 15 games. The O’s are under .500 on the road and have lost five of their past six away from Camden Yards. Baltimore has also scored three runs or less in six of its past nine games. Throw strikes against this team and they have very little chance of winning. Fall behind and that’s when they’ll sit dead red and knock some balls out of the park. The good news here is that Mike Clevinger works quickly and consistently ahead in the count. He has the ability to move the ball all around the plate, which bodes very well against this group of free swingers. Clevinger is still green at this level so that risk is always there but the oddsmakers like Cleveland’s chances today, as evidenced by the short price on the credible Chris Tillman to defeat a rookie with two games of MLB experience.
Chris Tillman is 6-1 with a 2.61 ERA so we can understand why he and the Orioles have so much market appeal here against a rookie with an ERA of 8.71. The oddsmakers know that too but could not care less. Tillman is missing a lot more bats (58 K’s in 59 innings) due to doubling the swing and miss rate on his knuckle-curve and tightening his slider. Thing is, Tillman has had good stretches before. Remove his hit and strand rate swings, and little has changed. His first-pitch strike rate remains consistently mediocre. His bottom line has improved but if you’re betting on him to sustain that level of success, you’re rolling the dice. Tillman’s current skills are more average than impact and the oddsmakers know it. That’s good enough for us.
San Diego +104 over ARIZONA
In desperate need of fresh arms, the Diamondbacks recalled Archie Bradley from Triple-A. Bradley is one of Arizona’s top prospects that made his big league debut in April 2015. He developed shoulder tightness that shut him down in early June of that year. He still has excellent, natural stuff and above-average velocity. He owns a plus 91-96 mph fastball and an above-average power curveball in his arsenal. In particular, the depth on his curveball has improved and he’s getting consistent bend on it. The bugaboo in his development has been his fringy change-up. He’s tried different grips and hasn’t found consistency with it. Its development will be the one of the keys to his future success. Another key will be his command, or lack thereof. The last key will be himself, as Bradley does not have great mound presence. Bradley has made 10 starts at this level over the past two seasons. In 46 innings, he’s walked 29 and struck out 29. His WHIP is 1.72, his ERA is 6.26 and his oppOPS is .805. Scouts see Bradley as a reliever because he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher. To recap, Bradley has been overwhelmed at this level three times in the past. He can’t throw strikes and he’s “pitching scared” when he gets here. His minor league numbers are very good but they’ve been very good at the time he’s gotten the call each time in the past too. Even if things go swimmingly for Bradley (very unlikely), he’s starting for one of the worst defenses and clubs in the league.
Given his MLB history of bouncing between the rotation and the ‘pen, and the mediocre starting results he’s had at both the upper levels and the major leagues, this market is just waiting for Drew Pomeranz to hit a wall. Throw in the team he plays for and it’s easy to forget about his pedigree.Pomeranz was the fifth-overall pick in the 2010 draft and has shown for most of his journey, regardless of role or location, is the ability to elicit strikeouts. He’s currently doing that at the sixth highest rate in the league. Pomeranz brings a 1.70 ERA into this start and while a 25% hit rate and 85% strand rate will chip away at his shiny surface stats, his 13% swing and miss rate and outstanding control confirms that he should continue to be a force. He has six dominant starts in nine tries which is the third highest mark in the league among starters with eight or more starts. Pomeranz’s sub-indicators confirm that what he’s doing this year is no fluke and while this is a tough park and it has taken him six years to finally fulfill his prior top-prospect upside, he and the Padres are a far better choice than a guy who hasn’t fulfilled anything while pitching for a team that has been pathetic both on and off the field.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON -140 over Toronto
This is why the Red Sox got David Price. Boston has lost 3 close games in a row and need an ace to stop the losing streak and it's Price. after a slow start, he has won his last 3 starts and boasts a 2.57 ERA in those wins. Meanwhile Toronto starter RA Dickey is 1-6 in his last 7 with a 5.50 ERA. Amazingly, David Price is 17-2 in his career against the Blue Jays and is 11-1 pitching at the Rogers center. In addition, Boston has already beat RA Dickey twice this season. Price is right, take Boston!
Bruce Marshall
Twins / Mariners Over 8
There have been at least nine runs scored in the last eight starts made by the Twins' Ricky Nolasco, so the case for the "over" is solid this afternoon at Safeco Field. Nolasco's 5.54 ERA is further confirmation of his struggles. But struggle also applies to Mariners starter Taijuan Walker, tasked with preventing the Twins from notching a stunning series sweep but also winless in his last five starts and allowing a whopping six homers in his last four outings.