Free Picks for Thursday, April 13th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Bruce Marshall
Boston -1.5 +141
Don't at all like this spot for the Pirates, who look a troubled bunch after getting swept at home by the Reds, and now forced back to Boston on an original off day, with an unexpected detour to Wrigley Field via Fenway Park to make up for last week's rainout in Boston. Moreover, it's an afternoon game, and Bucs starter Chad Kuhl did not overly impress in his first start of 2017 vs. the Braves last Friday, and closed last season with a 5.82 ERA in September, Pittsburgh scored only three total runs while losing twice at Fenway last week, as expect Bosox starter Eduardo Rodriguez to fare a bit better after a shaky 2017 debut vs. the Tigers last Saturday.
Dave Cokin
Anaheim -165
Those of you who check in to see what I'm doing with the daily free plays are undoubtedly aware that I very rarely lay any big prices. I'm far more underdog or small chalk oriented. But I won't just simply refuse to spot a good sized money line favorite piece if the numbers are overwhelming, and they are all of that here.
27-0, or 0-27 depending on your perspective. The Anaheim Ducks have defeated the Calgary Flames 27 straight times when these teams meet at Anaheim.
That amazing streak alone pretty much eliminated any consideration for the Flames in this series. I suppose one can argue that if they can simply steal a game at The Pond, maybe the burden of failure gets lifted and Calgary suddenly has a great chance to pull the series upset. I guess I can't argue against that. But one might also suggest that they're got to be mentally beaten quickly if the struggles at Anaheim are maintained.
I also factored current form into this decision. The Ducks are entering the playoffs on a big roll. Anaheim went 11-3 to finish the regular season, and garnered at least one point in each of the last 14 games.
This is a veteran Ducks team that is heading into the playoffs red hot. Add in the astounding dominance at home against the Flames and I actually think -165 is arguably a little less than it ought to be. I'm making a series play on Anaheim.
Jim Feist
Flames vs. Ducks
Play: Under 5
Game 1st start out conservative as neither team wants to make a mistake and allow an easy goal. Calgary is 19-7-1 under the total on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Anaheim is dynamite on defense, third in goals allowed, fourth in penalty killing. Anaheim is 18-8-7 under the total against the Western Conference, plus 15-7-6 under after a victory.
Red Dog Sports
Barnsley vs. Wigan Athletic
Play: Barnsley +270
Wigan is #23 of the 24 teams at 9-22-10 (-16 goals) while Barnsley is #13 at 15-15-11 (+2 goals). It does scare me that Wigan is at home but nice value on the road underdog. Small play at +270.
Rob Vinciletti
Calgary vs. Anaheim
Play: Anaheim -153
Hard to not like a team that has beat their opponent 25 straight times and 38 of 43 times at home. That is what the Ducks have done to Calgary. Anaheim is 4-1 with 3+ days of rest and has won 9 of 11 and the last 4 as they gain momentum for the Playoffs. Calgary has lost 3 of the last 4 and lost the season series 4-1 vs the Ducks. The Ducks are 18-7 at home if the total is 5 or less and we will back them here tonight as all time in round 1 game 1 home teams are 138-96.
Brandon Shively
Rangers vs. Angels
Pick: Rangers
The Texas Rangers are underpriced on Thursday afternoon in Anaheim. Yu Darvish over Ricky Nolasco is a massive starting pitching mismatch. Nolasco is at the very best an average pitcher in the majors. Yu Darvish has some of the best stuff in the majors, and if he can stay healthy I expect a great season out of him.
Texas has certainly had their fair share of bullpen blowups this year, and those have been highly publicized. I believe those have given us some extra value here. Remember, the Angels don't have a good bullpen at all either. In fact, I'm not convinced it is better than the Texas bullpen.
The Angels have pulled out a lot of magic in the early going this year, but they aren't going to consistently win games where they dig a deep hole. The Rangers clearly have the deeper lineup. Texas is much more dangerous now that Joey Gallo is providing the team with consistent power near the bottom of the order.
The Rangers are 7-1 in Darvish's last 8 starts vs. the Angels. This is a fair price to lay with the much better pitcher and the better lineup.
Ray Monohan
Rockies / Giants Over 6.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Rockies and Giants play on Thursday night in a good pitching match up, but 6.5 is just too low for total runs scored. Madison Bumgarner is on the hill for the Giants, and unless he pitches a complete game the Rockies will still have a chance to face their bullpen which has been terrible. The bullpen for the Giants has pitched 20 innings this season and has an ERA of 5.85.
Pitching for the Rockies is Jon Gray who in 9.1 innings pitched this season has an ERA of 5.79. Some trends to note. Over is 5-1 in Grays last 6 road starts. Over is 5-1 in Bumgarners last 6 home starts. Over is 5-0 in Bumgarners last 5 starts vs. Rockies.
Brandon Lee
Pirates / Red Sox Over 9.5
The over 9.5 on the total is worth a look this afternoon, when the Red Sox host the Pirates in a make-up game from their opening series. It's no secret that Fenway is a hitters park and it will definitely be just that with the wind blowing straight out to left at nearly 15 mph. The key here is that we have two starters who struggled in their first start. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez gave up 4 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks (2 HRs) at Detroit, while Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl allowed 3 runs on 5 hits and 6 walks in 5 innings. With the struggles both of these pitchers showed with their command, we should have plenty of base runners and big numbers to push this over the mark.
Dustin Hawkins
Minnesota vs. Detroit
Play:Minnesota +128
Phil Hughes and Jordan Zimmermann sparkled in their season debuts following injury-marred 2016 campaigns. Detroit is only 107-101 against the money line in home games vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game since 1997.The Tigers are only 9-18 against the money line in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Dodgers vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -132
I like the value here with the Cubs as a short home favorite against the Dodgers in Thursday's series finale. The two teams have split the first two games of the series, with LA taking yesterday's matchup 2-0. For me this all comes down to today's starting pitching matchup between a couple of lefties in the Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Cubs Brett Anderson. The big key here is how these two offenses have fared against left-handed starters. Chicago has faced two and are averaging 7.0 runs/game and hitting .307 as a team. Los Angeles has faced 4 lefty starters and are average 3.2 runs/game and hitting .238 as a team. Going back to last season, the Dodgers are a mere 1-9 in their last 10 games against a left-handed starter and 5-17 in their last 22 against a south paw on the road. Cubs are 37-14 in their last 51 home games and 24-7 in their last 31 after a loss.
Alan Harris
Anaheim (-165) over Calgary
The Anaheim Ducks will look to take a 1-0 lead in their Western Conference Quarterfinal matchup with the Calgary Flames when the two teams meet at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA, on Thursday night. John Gibson (25-16-9, 2.22 GAA, 924 save %) will get the start for the Ducks, and he will be opposed by Brian Elliott (26-18-3, 2.55 GAA, .910 save %), who is scheduled to get the Game 1 start between the pipes for the Flames. The Ducks have posted an 8-1 record in their last nine games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have gone an excellent 36-16 in their last 52 games versus a Pacific Division rival. The Flames, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Thursday as they have gone just 2-5 in their last seven games when facing a team with a winning % of .500 or higher. Throw in fact that the Ducks have gone a ridiculous 27-0 in their last 27 home games versus the Flames along with going 39-14 in the last 53 overall between the two teams and we'll lay the price with them here to get the home win in Anaheim on Thursday night.
Robert Ferringo
Miami (-135) over New York Mets
Miami really took it to the Mets last week in Citi Field, and I don't think it is going to get any easier for New York here. Wei-Yin Chen dominated the Mets last week, and I think that this New York team, which has all of its power on the left-hand side, is going to struggle against southpaws all season long. They are only hitting .231 so far and haven't looked good. Robert Gsellman will take the ball in this one. He was OK in his first attempt against the Marlins, striking out six. But he threw too many pitches and took the loss in just five innings of work. Gsellman is a pure No. 5 starter and he is going to be up and down all season long. I think he will be down in this start as the Marlins get a second crack at him.
Vernon Croy
Texas (-125) over L.A. Angels
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Rangers have the superior pitcher on the mound here Thursday afternoon. The Angels have hit just .238 as a team lifetime against Darvish and opponents have hit just .190 against him over his two starts this season. Darvish had an ERA of just 2.28 over 7 road starts last season, with opponents hitting just .185 against him, and I expect him to pitch better on the road than at home again this season. Darvish has an ERA of 3.28 at home the last 3 season while having an ERA of 3.1 on the road and he has an ERA of just 1.78 in day games the last 3 seasons, with opponents hitting just .198 against him. The Rangers have hit .284 as a team lifetime against Nolasco with an OBP of .351, and opponents have hit .250 against him over his two starts this season. The Rangers faced Nolasco once last season, leaving him with an ERA of 4.50 while hitting .360 as a team against him, so I expect plenty of run support for Darvish Thursday although he shouldn't need much. Play Texas ML with confidence.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Mets +126 over MIAMI
Wei-Yin Chen pitched well in his first start, as he held the Mets to one earned run in six innings in New York. This mirrored his one start against the Mets in Citi Field last season, when he allowed one earned run in seven innings. He'll match up against the Mets once again, this time in Miami, but don't count on the same result. Chen struggled at home last year, with a 5.49 ERA.
Chen was beset by gopheritis (giving up jacks) once again, and with his middling swing and miss rate and low groundball rate, he’s the perfect candidate to fade when he’s the chalk. In last week’s victory against New York, the Marlins scored early so Chen was pitching with a 3-1 lead in the second inning and a 5-1 lead in the third inning but he’s simply not good enough to be priced in this range against the Mets. Incidentally, the Mets have hit eight jacks against lefties so far and are hitting .276 against southpaws in a combined 105 AB’s. Chen is a lefty.
Robert Gsellman matched up against Miami last week in New York. He allowed three earned runs in five frames but he fanned seven with only two walks. In his four games on the road last season, Gsellman allowed only five earned runs in 20.1 innings. Gsellman went 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA with 42 K's in 45 innings last year for the Mets. It was a strong debut for a groundball-inducing rookie in a playoff chase. Gsellman’s performance was backed by strong skills markers and while the sample size is small, it’s getting larger without blemishes, therefore the time to buy low would be now.