SPORTS WAGERS
Series - Toronto +354 over WASHINGTON
Not one of the 18 hockey writers for Postmedia predicted the Leafs will advance past the Capitals. In fact, only four believe that the Leafs will win more than one game. Every panelist, every radio show host and every “expert” gives the Maple Leafs zero chance of advancing. These idiots that get paid to express their opinions take an underdog once every leap year. They don’t understand intangibles or variances and therefore cannot even fathom the idea that a team like Washington can lose.
These exact same guys have been picking the Capitals for a decade. In seven of those previous 10 seasons, the Capitals finished first in their division — winning the Presidents’ Trophy twice — and yet the team has not once advanced past the second round in that time, losing in the first round three times. We’re not saying the Capitals are in line to lose this series but no team should be a 4-1 favorite because too many things can go wrong. What if the Capitals supporting cast doesn’t produce? Nicklas Backstrom had three goals and four assists in 14 playoff games in 2015 while Evgeny Kuznetsov had one goal and one assist in 12 games last year. The Capitals are a great team but haven’t we been saying that for a decade? They’ll come into this series extremely focused and they will not take the Leafs lightly for a second but they’ll also come into the series under immense pressure while the Maple Leafs are playing with house money.
Speaking of house money…what if the Maple Leafs score first? That’s a distinct possibility ya know. Toronto’s secondary scoring isn’t comprised of just a few guys. They have three scoring lines with each one being as dangerous as the next. Austin Matthews and William Nylander each scored 30 points in the final 34 games while Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev each had 15 points in that span. Mitch Marner creates almost every time he’s on the ice while James Van Riemsdyk is a natural goal scorer. Nazem Kadri is another great talent that also plays responsibly on the defensive end.
Washington’s big edge is behind the blue-line so the Maple Leafs are going to need their goaltending to come up huge. It’s happened before and it could happen again but a team with Toronto’s firepower is too dangerous to be counted out so easily by so many. Unlike Washington, Toronto’s kids don’t know what losing feels like. If anything, they are oblivious to the external pressures that come around in the playoffs and it should also be noted that Mike Babcock knows a thing or two about preparing for a playoff series.
If Toronto can steal one of the first two games in Washington, we’ll be in a free roll position and we’ll decide what to do should that come to fruition. We’re not predicting the upset here, we’re merely pointing out where the value lies and that Toronto has far too much talent to ignore when a lot worse teams than them have pulled off this one versus eight upset before.
Series - Nashville +171 over CHICAGO
If you’re a hockey fan, you’re probably in a playoff pool of some sort and if you have already attended your draft, chances are that a bunch of Blackhawks went in the first round. If you’re draft is tonight (Tuesday), you’ll likely see the same thing. That’s another representation of the market. What you’re going to read about is how Chicago has haunted the Predators for years and how Nashville cannot beat this team. Nashville won just one of their five meetings against the Blackhawks this season. The Preds also faced the Blackhawks in the 2010 and 2015 playoffs and lost both times but in both cases, the Blackhawks went on to win the Stanley Cup. Yes indeed, this market figures the Blackhawks can't lose but we're not so sure.
These are not the same Blackhawks as those other teams. Chicago has depth and experience but they also have flaws. For one, its defense is slower with both Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook having lost a step or two. Chicago gives up a TON of scoring chances that put them in the same range as the Islanders, Canucks, Stars, Leafs and Coyotes this past season. That’s a major concern that instantly reveals the risk of spotting such a big price with them. Chicago was projected for big regression this year but they rode a hot start to a strong point total. However, they closed the year by going just 9-8 in its final 17 games and that’s when teams were in playoff battle mode. Playing the 28th ranked strength of schedule out of 30 teams, the Blackhawks played .500 hockey (11-11) against top-10 competition and two of those victories occurred in extra time. The Blackhawks are dangerous but they’re also vulnerable. Corey Crawford doesn’t exactly make anyone feel secure either.
The Predators don’t have Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews but what they do have is one of the most productive bluelines in the NHL. Ryan Ellis, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm, and Roman Josi all produced. The quartet of blue liners get a ton of playing time, as each of them averages over 23 minutes of ice time per game. Few teams can match up against their defensemen, which could be a huge advantage for them. Matt Irwin provides solid defensive depth. Their forwards have been heating up as of late too. Their top six can play and match any other top-6 in the game. Also, Pekka Rinne has a .931 save percentage since the start of March. He has gone through some struggles this year and last but perhaps he’s back to form. We’re not sold on Rinne but he’s not on the team spotting a better than 2-1 price tag.
Chicago ended up as a #1 seed while the Preds ended up as a Wild Card. The Blackhawks have pedigree and popularity while the Preds are just a playoff team every year that never can get over the hump. The same result from previous years is very possible but we’re suggesting that very little separate the two in terms of their chances to advance. Nashville is an absolute monster in their own rink and if they can find that same intensity on the road then the Preds will shock the hockey world. This series is a lot closer than the line suggests and therefore the price is too appealing to pass on.
Larry Ness
Rays vs. Yankees
Pick: Yankees
The Yankees opened the 2017 season losing two of three in Tampa to the Rays and then did the same in Baltimore. However, they own 8-1 and 8-4 wins here in the Bronx over the Rays (Monday & Wednesday) and go for a three-game sweep of the Rays on Thursday (note: Yanks last swept the Rays back in Sep of 2009, winning all four games). The Rays opened the 2017 season with a seven-game homestand, taking two of three from the Yanks and three of four from the Blue Jays. However, this trip to the Bronx has not gone well, as least so far. The Rays have been outscored 16-5, gone 1-for-11 with RISP and defensively, have committed four errors in the first two games of this series.
The pitching matchup will see Matt Andriese (0-0, 9.00 ERA) taking the mound for Tampa Bay and Luis Severino (0-0, 7.20 ERA) getting the nod for New York. Andriese is listed as Tampa's fifth-starter but he'll need better efforts than his 2017 debut to keep his spot in the rotation. He allowed five runs (four ERs) on seven hits against Toronto last Friday in only four innings, although the Rays were able to win, 10-8. Andriese was 8-8 with a 4.37 ERA in 29 appearances (19 starts) in 2016 and in three career starts vs the Yankees, is 1-2 with a 7.43 ERA.
Severino is still searching for the form he displayed in 2015 when he was 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts as a rookie. That was hardly the case last season, when he posted a 5.83 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 22 appearances in 2016, including 11 starts. He was 3-8 on the season and the Yanks went just 2-9 in his starts (minus-$714). However, he did keep his team in the game during his first start of the 2017 season (allowed four runs and six hits with six strikeouts and a walk over five innings in a 6-5 loss to Baltimore last Friday). Severino is 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in seven appearances (three starts / Yanks are 2-1) against Tampa Bay in his young career.
The pick: The Rays have had an ugly time of it so far in the Bronx and with Andriese on the mound, why should it get better? He was 2-6 with a 6.03 ERA after the All-Star break last season and opened this year against the struggling Blue Jays (Toronto has opened 1-7 while batting a MLB-worst .190!) and allowed five runs (four ERs) on seven hits in only four innings. Yanks get the sweep.
Andrew Gold
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -118
This line probably comes as a surprise to most people as the Blue Jays are off to a terrible start with a 1-7 record. They are favored for a reason and that is because Gausman is taking the hill tonight for the Orioles.
The Orioles are off to a nice start, but have played all but 2 games @ home. Gausman is a stater I want no part of with the Orioles. He has struggled both games @ home and was very lucky facing the Blue Jays as he pitched 5 and a third giving up 2 runs but walked 4 batters. His command isn't there walking 7 batters in 10 innings pitched. Not a good sign
Liriano is due for a big bounce back game after pitching just awful in his debut. He only recorded one out and gave up 5 earned runs. Clearly was rusty and now returning home this is a spot to back him.
Teddy Davis
Rangers vs. Angels
Play: Rangers -118
Rangers are just 3-5, but most of those losses are to blame on the bullpen. Now, they have their ace on the mound here against an average pitcher in Nolasco, but the Angels are getting respect because of their record.
Nolasco has pitched well his first two games of the season, but they were also against the Mariners and the A's.
The Rangers bats have been hot this series so far recording 10 and 11 hits the past two games. Darvish is also 7-2 against them life time with a 3.78 career ERA.
Mike Menase
Minnesota vs. Detroit
Play:Minnesota +127
I like the value with a Twins team led by Phil Hughes. Hughes' career numbers against the Tigers are concerning but also misleading. Last season for instance, against Detroit at home he gave up 4 ER in 5 innings. In Detroit, however, he gave up just 1 ER in 6.1 innings. This trend has been consistent throughout his career.
Hughes relies on a repertoire of pitches which induces an extreme number of fly balls. This tendency works towards his advantage in Comerica. In his last 23.1 innings in Comerica, he has given up only two home runs. Detroit relied on a grand slam to get past the Twins yesterday. I think their balls stay in the ballpark today, as the strong wind blowing eastward won't help. I expect a lot of fly balls today from Detroit batters--and little scoring.
Hughes should pitch well today. Even if Zimmerman pitches as well, the Detroit bullpen has been shaky at best this season. But I don't think that Zimmermann will have a good day today. Contrary to Hughes, he tends to struggle in Comerica. Last season he was 5-5 with a 7.00 ERA at home. Minnesota also knocked 8 ER against him in the 14 innings he pitched against them.
This is not a good spot for Zimmermann, but a great one for Hughes. I like the value with the Twins, who will look to avoid the sweep today.
Wunderdog
Minnesota @ Detroit
Pick: Detroit -132
The Detroit Tigers have plenty of offensive talent and the pitching staff ranks sixth in baseball in team ERA (3.42). They go for the three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins and the Tigers are 39-19 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game. Minnesota has a losing road record, with the Twins on a 7-21 run on the road. The Twins are hitting .222 as a team, scoring four total runs the last two games. The Tigers go with Jordan Zimmermann (1-0, 1.50 ERA) and Detroit has won seven of the last eight at home. The Tigers are also 40-17 when their opponent allows 5+ runs in their previous game. Detroit is 20-6 against the Twins, including 15-7 in this park.
Micah Roberts
New York vs. Florida
Play: Florida -125
Robert Gsellman faced the Marlins last week at home at lost 8-1 allowing three runs over five innings, but since then the Mets have won four straight capped off with a sweep at Philadelphia. Wei-Yen Chen beat the Mets six days ago, 7-2, allowing one run over six innings and in July he beat the Mets 5-2 allowing one run, The Mets have won all three on the road, and I usually like teams on win streak, but I'm on the Marlins and Chen tonight.
Brad Wilton
Hats-off to Mike Babcock for getting his young Toronto Maple Leafs into the postseason! Toronto is going to be a very dangerous team in years to come, but right now going up against the # 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Maple Leafs are simply in over their heads this Thursday night.
Washington fully expects to be skating in June for the Stanley Cup, and tonight I say they open that pursuit with a blowout win over playoff-neophytes Toronto.
The Caps took 2 of the 3 series meetings this year, and are on an overall 7-1 series run the past 8 times they have skated against the Leafs. 4 of the 7 wins, including the last series meeting - 4-1 April 4th at Toronto! - have come by 2 goals or more, so no reason to be afraid of backing Washington on their home ice -1 1/2 goals tonight.
The Maple Leafs limped to the regular season finish line, losing 3 of their final 4. In those 3 losses their offense went south, as they were held to just 4 total goals. Getting one past Brandon Holtby at anytime of the year is tough, but especially tough when your team is making their first playoff appearance in a few seasons.
Capitals take it by at least 2 goals.
3* WASHINGTON -1.5
SCOTT RICKENBACH
White Sox vs. Indians
Play: Under 8½
Until these teams start hitting, the under has to be worth a look each and every night and, in this case, I like what I see. Josh Tomlin of the Indians is going to be fired up for a big home start after allowing 6 earned runs in about 5 innings of work at hitter-friendly Arizona Friday. The right-hander has a 2.88 ERA in his career outings against the White Sox and has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning against them. The ChiSox come into this game having been held to an average of only 6 hits per game in their last 5 games. It will be rather "raw" weather at Progressive Field this evening with northeast winds blowing in from right-center and temperatures dropping into the upper 40s. Unlike his start last week, Tomlin gets "pitcher-friendly" conditions here and he'll need a strong start here because he's unlikely to get much run support in this one. The Tribe have averaged just 2 runs per game in their last 10 games. Also, Cleveland has been held to just 5.6 hits per game in going 1-4 in those 5 games. It won't get any easier for the Indians lineup here as they face Chicago's Miguel Gonzalez who is off of a solid season debut last week and is also 4-1 with a respectable 4.15 ERA in his 5 career starts versus the Indians. The White Sox, after yesterday's 2nd straight 2-1 game are 30-17 to the under in April games the past 3 seasons combined.
JACK JONES
Texas Rangers -122
The Texas Rangers got off to a shaky start this season thanks to several blown saves by their bullpen. Their starters have been doing the job, and I expect that to be the case here again Thursday with their huge edge on the mound over the Angels.
Yu Darvish is coming off a start in which he allowed just one earned run in 6 innings against the A's. Darvish has owned the Angels in his brief career, going 7-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 13 career starts against them. The Rangers are 10-3 in those 13 games.
The Rangers are 4-0 in Darvish's last four road starts. Texas is 5-1 in Darvish's last six Thursday starts. The Rangers are 6-1 in Darvish's last seven starts vs. Los Angeles. Texas is 6-1 in his last seven road starts at the Angels.
Carmine Bianco
Besiktas at Lyon
Play: Over 3
Thursday's Free Play is a total's selection and play on the Over in Leg 1 as Besiktas travel to France to take on a Lyon side that has continuous found the net in European Cup play and especially since crossing over from the Champions League to these knockout stages. Lyon scored 11 over the two legs against AK Alkmaar and followed up with 5 more against Roma over 2 games in the last round. Besiktas tallied 5 in both rounds against good defensive sides and will look to attack here in game 1 as they've done most of this season in cup and domestic league play.
Big Al
Calgary vs. Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim
If the Flames were asked to pick their preferred first round playoff opponents in order of preference, at the bottom of the list would no doubt be the Anaheim Ducks. There are first round match-ups in this post-season that feature some bad match-ups as far as the trends are concerned, but none that are even close to what the Ducks have done to the Flames in recent memory. First of all, the Flames are 1-9 in the last 10 meetings overall. Second - and this is really incredible - the Flames are 0-27 in their last 27 trips to Anaheim and that goes all the way back to 2003 (the streak goes back so far that there is actually a tie in there). The Flames more or less limped into the post-season, losing three of their last four games, including a back-to-back, home and home series to Anaheim. As if all of that weren't enough, Calgary is thin in net right now as back-up goalie Chad Johnson is nursing a lower body injury and likely will not be able to play tonight, which leaves rookie Jon Gillies and his lone NHL start as the #2 net-minder behind Brian Elliott. The Ducks are 8-1 in the last nine games vs. teams with a winning record.
DAVE PRICE
New York Yankees -133
We'll gladly fade Matt Andriese of the Tampa Bay Rays today. Andries gave up 5 runs, 4 earned, in 4 innings of a 10-8 win over Toronto in his first start this season. He has not fared well against the Yankees, going 1-2 with a 7.43 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against them. Luis Severino had held the Rays to just one earned run in 2 of his 3 lifetime starts against them. Tampa Bay is 3-16 in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last 3 seasons. The Rays are 15-40 in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
MIKE MENASE
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -117
Everybody seems to be riding the 'fade Toronto' train. But I have found more long-term success in gambling by looking less at previous results to find win streaks or lose streaks and more by looking for upside. Toronto, last season, had the 9th best offense, measured by ops. This season, so far, they are 1-7 as a team. Their pitching has generally been excellent, but their bats have been cold. The key statistic that I use to measure upside in a particular team is the babip--batting average of balls in play. Generally speaking, all hitters can really do, for the most part, is put the ball in play. What happens after that is to a considerable degree a matter of luck. So far in the season, the Blue Jays have a paltry babip of .239, which is well below the MLB average, even though their lineup is above average in quality and talent. I measure their quality and talent by their success last year. Though they did lose some key bats, they replaced those bats and their lineup as a whole enjoys a .861 ops against Gausman in 109 at-bats. In sum, the Blue Jays' lineup is due because their babip suggests that they have been unlucky and underperforming so far this season.
I think their bats get going tonight and I think that their match-up tonight can only help. The Orioles bring Kevin Gausman onto the mound. He really struggled away from Camden Yards, last season. His ERA was 2.67 at home but 4.32 on the road. He also struggled in Toronto, going 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA. Toronto had success against Gausman 1) because Gausman was away from Baltimore, where he is comfortable. And 2) because Gausman is a ground ball pitcher because he relies especially on a kind of fastball that induces an extreme number of ground balls. Toronto, last season, hit such pitchers with a .272 BA and .785 ops. The Blue Jays also loved batting at home, where they managed a .260 BA and .785 ops. Because the Blue Jays match up well with Gausman at home, I expect their bats to finally heat up. As their manager has said, "It's only a matter of time." I think that time is tonight.
I think Toronto's pitching also continues to succeed. Baltimore bats mustered a meager .743 ops on the road last season and a .693 ops versus southpaws. Liriano had a horrible first outing, but that was also on the road. Last year, for instance, whether as a Pirate or a Blue Jay, he performed noticeably better in front of his home crowd. His ERA was under 4 at home, and 3.07 in 5 starts as a Blue Jay in Toronto. I like Liriano to bounce back today and pitch well against an Orioles' lineup that he matches up well against as a southpaw at home. I like Toronto's bullpen to continue its reliability and maintain the lead that Toronto's lineup should procure.
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Cincinnati Reds, plus the money at home against the Milwaukee Brewers.
I'm not listing the pitchers in this one, as I've never been a fan of Bronson Arroyo. But it is an intriguing situation, as the 40-year-old left-hander hasn't pitched at Great American Ball Park since his final start of the 2013 season. And his confidence should be on high since he is facing a Brewers club he has had decent success, going 16-10 with a 3.54 ERA in 34 appearances (31 starts).
But that's not why I'm taking the Reds.
I like Cincinnati because it is playing in a winning groove right now, having captured four in a row.
The Reds have also won seven of their last 10 games against the Brewers. They're also buzzing in Cincinnati about the fact the Reds have won their first three series for the first time since the 1990 World Series championship season.
Cincinnati took three straight from the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park, so the momentum is heavy right now.
Take the home dog.
2* REDS