Free Picks and Service Plays for Thursday, August 18th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Jason Sharpe
Chicago (+4) over New England
No NFL head coach or team wants to be embarrassed during the preseason, but that was the case with the Chicago Bears last week in their home loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos by a 22-0 score. The stats in the game were as ugly as the final score as Chicago only managed to put up 130 yards of offense during the game. The Bears offense couldn't move the football, going three-and-out on 7 of their first 10 drives of the game as they never really threatened to score during the contest. Many of the Bears top players, along with their head coach John Fox, spoke about how poorly they played and how they all needed to be a lot better going forward. That's the exact kind of effort that were looking for during these preseason games, and especially if their facing a team that's coming off a nice winning effort like New England had as the Patriots put up a Week 1 NFL high by scoring 34 points in their game. The Pats were also able to get the much-needed work in for their opening week starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the game as well. With a big Week 3 dress rehearsal game coming up next week at Carolina, I'm looking for more of a take-it-easy type attitude from the Patriots here in this contest, which should much different than the sense of urgency that I'm expecting to see out of the Bears.
DAVE COKIN
BEARS AT PATRIOTS
PLAY: BEARS +3.5
There was basically nothing positive to come out of last week’s exhibition opener for the Bears. They were pretty much bad at everything. For a team looking to put 2015 in the rear view mirror, that was a discouraging start, to put it mildly. The games might not count but for teams like the Bears, I think it’s more important for them to build a little positive momentum and instead Game One got them just the opposite result. The first-team offense was almost unbelievably incompetent, gaining 13 yards on 10 plays. Simply stated, they have to show more here. I think the Bears should have an opportunity to do better in this game. They were at least what was described as “assertive” in the joint sessions this week.
There are a couple of possible negatives on the New England side, particularly at the QB spot. Garappolo did not have a good week of practice, and Brissett didn’t get many reps. The Patriots running game was also described as sluggish. There’s never any valuable info from Belichick, and he’s been typical Belichick at this camp. But it at least appears as though the Patriots are more focused from a gameplay standpoint on next week’s game at Carolina.
I’m not high on trends, but there are some pretty good pre-season angles that it the Bears this week, mostly having to do with teams that played very poorly at home the prior week, as was the case here. It could be that this Chicago team is so terrible that even in what really does look like a good pre-season spot, they can screw it up. But pre-season handicapping theory points their way, and the info gathered from those covering these two teams would seem to support that side as well. I’ll take the Bears and the points tonight.
Chase Diamond
Cincinnati at Detroit
Play: Cincinnati
Tonight's game has the 0-1 Bengals at the 1-0 Lions. Lions are off a upset win against the Steelers at Pittsburgh while the Bengals are off a hard loss to the Vikings by 1 point. Favorites off an upset road win are a soft 53-77-4 41% ATS since 1991 again'st teams off ATS defeat. Right now the public is 64% on the Bengals and the line is moving in the correct direction so we will be backing a public team tonight but I believe it's a very solid play. Over the last 33 years these two teams have played in the preseason this will be the 24th preseason meeting between these two teams and in this series a team off a straight up loss has covered 73% of the time when the other team won its previous game. We have trends backing us big time on this one take the Bengals plus the points.
Rob Vinciletti
Vikings vs. Seahawks
Play: Vikings +3
The Vikings are taking 3 points here and were solid in a road win at Cincinnati last week in a game where they were solid on defense. The game appeared close as the Vikings allowed an 80 yard punt return. They have Playoff revenge for a 10-9 loss and also for a blowout regular season loss, so they will be motivated here. Seattle came from behind with a big 4th Quarter to win in Kansas City. With Minnesota having covered 8 of the last 10 in week 2 we will look their way here tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Dodgers -143
Dave Roberts should be the leading candidate for NL Manager of the Year as he has the Dodgers in first place in the NL West even though his team has suffered numerous injuries, including Clayton Kershaw. Los Angeles has won seven of its last 10 games and coming off two wins in Philadelphia by a combined score of 22-7. Ross Stripling has pitched better on the road this season with a 3.04 ERA and .179 opponent batting average. The Phillies have never faced him, but they are 28th in the major leagues with a .696 OPS against right-handers and last with a .647 OPS at home. Jerad Eickhoff gave up five runs in six innings at San Diego on Aug. 7 and then allowed three runs and 10 hits in just 5 2/3 innings against Colorado on Saturday. The Phillies have lost 31 of their last 43 against teams with winning records.
Marc Lawrence
New York at San Francisco
Play: New York +140
Edges - Mets: Jacob DeGrom 1.71 ERA with 0.95 WHIP last 7 starts. Giants: Madison Bumgarner 3-6 last 9 overall team starts; and 2-3 team starts versus N.L. East this season. With DeGrom in great KW form with 38 Ks and 6 BBs his last 6 starts, and Bumgarner in season worst form, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Mets.
Jim Feist
Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Over 8
Anaheim is a good offensive park and the Over is 19-7 when the Mariners face a team with a losing record. Hisashi Iwakuma is on the hill allowing more hits than innings pitched. He's better at home, too, with a 4.17 road ERA as opponents hit .285 off him. The Over is 7-3 in the Mariners last 10 road games. They face a struggling LA pitching staff with Matt Shoemaker (6-13, 4.22 ERA) going. He is off a loss at Cleveland allowing 12 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings. The Over is 15-5-1 when the Angels face the American League West and this shapes up as an offensive show.
Lee Williams
Raiders vs. Packers
Play: Under 42.5
We wont likely see Aaron Rodgers on Thursday, but we will see plenty of the defense that was so good last week vs Cleveland ,holding Cleveland to 11 first downs.Oakland had 31 point outburst to start preseason last week, but we feel points well be a bit harder to come by this week against Pack.
Bob Harvey
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8½
The first-place LA Dodgers go for a three-game sweep of the Phillies when the teams meet tonight in Philadelphia.
The Dodgers (66-52, 28-28 road) have been on a tear offensively blasting seven homers in a pair of lopsided victories to start the series. Adrian Gonzalez smacked a pair of home runs and knocked in five runs in Wednesday’s 7-2 victory as the Dodgers moved 1.5 in front of the faltering San Francisco Giants atop the National League West. Gonzalez is tearing it up at the dish going 18 for 40 with 11 RBIs and 12 runs scored during a 10-game hitting streak.
The Phillies (56-64, 28-30 home) have lost two straight after putting together a modest four-game winning streak. Cesar Hernandez extended his on-base streak to 23 games and has hit safely in six straight for Philadelphia.
A pair of rookie hurlers will square with LA sending Ross Stripling (3-4, 4.07 ERA) vs. the Phillies Jerad Eickhoff (8-12, 3.82). Stripling will be making his third straight start following four relief appearances in a row.
Eickhoff has won his last two starts, although he hasn't been particularly sharp in either one. He was reached for three runs on 10 hits, including a pair of homers, in 5 1/3 innings against Colorado last time out and also surrendered two homers at San Diego in his previous turn. Eickhoff is 5-5 with a 3.05 ERA in 12 starts at Citizens Bank Park.
John Ryan
Nationals vs. Braves
Play: Braves +129
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington is 17-23 (-18.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons and they are 49-49 (-23.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Snitker is 16-11 (+12.5 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities as the manager of Atlanta.
Fundamental Discussion Points Washington’s bullpen worked 16 1/3 innings in losing two of three at Colorado, using five relievers to cover 6 1/3 innings in Wednesday’s 12-10 defeat. Whalen has struck out at least five hitters in each of his first three starts, and fired four shutout innings to win his debut. Whalen and the Braves are looking for revenge from the last time these two young right-handers faced off. Atlanta first baseman Freddie Freeman hit his career-high 24th homer yesterday, and has scored at least one run in 10 of his past 11 contests. Atlanta SS Dansby Swanson went 2-for-4 in his major-league debut Wednesday.
Mike Anthony
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Lawrence Timmons still shows up on every play. He is aggressive and strong, and the Steelers enjoy giving him what he does best, which is coming in at the LB position, and causing problems for opponents. Timmons will be active on the field, and hunting Eagles. The offensive line of Philadelphia has struggled at times, and they have struggled moving the ball very well, up to and including the most recent game vs Tampa Bay. This will be just another difficult situation for their QBs to get a handle on. Steelers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass Pittsburgh wins by double digits here on Thursday night.
Jesse Schule
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
The Dodgers have out-scored the Phillies 22-7 in the first two games of this series in Philly, but I don't think we'll see LA complete the sweep here in the finale. Philly had won five of six at home prior to this series, and they should have a pitching mismatch in their favor tonight. Jerad Eickoff will toe the slab for the Phillies, and he's having a solid season despite playing for one of the worst teams in the majors. Eickoff (8-12, 3.82 ERA) allowed three runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings in a 6-3 home win over the Rockies his last time out. The Phillies have won three of his last four home starts, and he's 5-5 with a 3.05 ERA in a dozen starts at Citizen's Bank Park this season. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Ross Stripling, who has worked mostly out of the bullpen. The 26 year old was torched for five runs on six hits, including a pair of home runs in a home loss to the Pirates his last time out. He has pretty dramatic splits, with an ERA of 1.32 in 20.2 innings during the day, and an ERA of 5.32 in 45.2 innings at night. The Phillies rank second in the National League in runs scored during the month of August, only Colorado has scored more.
Paul Leiner
100* Mariners -115
100* Padres / DBacks Over 8.5
Larry Ness
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles
The 66-53 Baltimore Orioles are in the midst of a three-team battle in the AL East and the team’s status was not helped by getting swept at home Tuesday and Wednesday by Boston. The Red Sox moved into second place in the American League East, one game behind Toronto and one game ahead of the Orioles, with a rain-shortened 8-1 victory over Baltimore on Wednesday. The Astros swept the Orioles in a three-game series in Houston back in May, holding the potent Baltimore lineup to just seven runs and scoring two one-run victories and a two-run decision. The Orioles need to solve Houston, as they are just 3-7 vs the Astros over the past two years.
Houston won its wild card playoff game with the Yankees last year, after an 86-win regular season but lost 4-1 in the ALDS to Kansas City. However, the team’s “encore season” has not gone smoothly, as after losing a fourth straight game last night, the 61-59 Astros find themselves in third-place in the Al West (10 games back), as well as tied with the Yankees 5 1/2 games back of the final wild card spot (Detroit and Seattle are both ahead of them, as well). Houston sends rookie Joe Musgrove (1-0, 1.47 ERA) to the mound, while Baltimore counters with Kevin Gausman (3-10, 4.04 ERA).
Musgrove made his major league debut on August 2 vs the Jays, pitching 4.1 scoreless innings, while allowing just one hit with eight Ks. He’s made two seven-inning starts since and not only owns a 1.47 ERA but an 0.76 WHIP with opponents batting only .185 against him. Gausman’s had a rough season for Baltimore but the Orioles are one tough ‘nut to crack’ here at Camden Yards. Baltimore’s 39-19 home record is bettered by only the 44-19 Cubs but while Chicago owns a modest plus-$472 home moneyline mark, Baltimore leads all of MLB with a plus-$1635 home moneyline mark.