Sam Martin
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots
Pick: New England Patriots
This isn't so much of a play "on" New England as it is "against" Chicago, who dropped a goose egg last week in a 22-0 shutout loss against the Denver Broncos. It wasn't so much about the score as the play on the field, as the Bears failed to reach 50 yards rushing on the ground and 100 yards through the air. We don't expect the Bears to be held scoreless again or put up such embarrassing offensive numbers this week, but we also don't expect Chicago to suddenly fix all of their offensive problems. On defense, the Bears are extremely young and susceptible in their secondary, and we do expect to see a Brady-less Pats offense see what their quarterbacks can do through the air. Bears inept offense combined with a bad defensive matchup leads to an easy Pats win and cover!
Carmine Bianco
Shkendija at KAA Gent
Play: KAA Gent -1.5
Home form has been solid for this side and they looked great in Leg 1 at home in the last qualifying round and get a good match up here against a Macedonian side that they should beat over the 2 leg affair and secure their passage into EL group stage play.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +118 over DETROIT
The Red Sox just steamrolled the Orioles in Baltimore while outscoring them 13-4 in in that two-game set. That’s not interesting. They also had a make-up game in Cleveland on Monday and won that one too. This is Boston’s third city in the past four days but that’s not interesting either. Boston has reeled off six in a row while scoring 47 runs over that span. That’s amazing but it’s not interesting. What’s interesting is that Boston played last night in Baltimore and this is a 1:00 PM EST start. That means getting to the hotel in Detroit very late last night. What we know for sure is that the Red Sox brass contacted the Tigers brass and asked them to move the game up to 4:00 PM EST. The Tigers had the right to refuse and they utilized that right. Detroit said no so here we are. That refusal will only motivate the Red Sox more. They’re hot, they’re in great form and they’re taking back a tag.
Clay Buchholz is having a disaster season and the only reason he’s in the rotation is because Steven Wright went on the DL. Indeed Buchholz may get torched but we’re not counting on a gem from him. We’re counting on a motivated and superior team to come out swinging against Matt Boyd.
Boyd has started 11 games this season and has just two quality starts to his credit. He also appeared in relief for two games so in total he has appeared in just 13 games. Last season, Boyd went 1-6 with a 7.53 ERA in 57 innings for the Tigers and Blue Jays. Boyd was part of the David Price deal last season but he was not the key cog in that deal. Daniel Norris was. Prior to that, Boyd excelled across two minor-league levels but MLB hitters are far more wise to this finesse lefty's tricks and feasting on his extreme fly-ball profile (2.7 HR/9). Boyd’s fly-ball rate in his last start was 55% (league average is around 35%). Boyd has bounced between Detroit and Triple-A Toledo. He has a 5.04 xERA and showed similar skills in his 57 MLB innings in 2015 therefore there is no reason to wade into this minefield.
Chicago +179 over CLEVELAND
Maybe the Indians run over the White Sox here. That is a distinct possibility but we’re not in the business of predicting outcomes. We are merely looking for overpriced favorites/underpriced dogs (value), fading or playing them and letting the chips fall where they may. That brings us to Danny Salazar, who comes off the DL here for his first start since August 1. Spotting a price like this on Salazar coming off the DL is therefore too big a risk. Additionally, Salazar has been tagged for seven jacks over his last five starts. He’s also been tagged for 6, 4 and 6 runs respectively in three of his last four starts. Yeah, Salazar can be downright dominating but again, he’s coming off the DL and his mound opponent can be dominating too.
Carlos Rodon also spent some recent time on the DL but he returned on July 31 after a 15-day stint. He was whacked that day (6 IP 8H 5ER) but he’s been brilliant in two starts since. Rodon has 18 K’s over his past 18 innings. He has 108 K’s in 109 innings overall. In his last start, Rodon’s line-drive rate was 0%. He’s throwing 94 MPH heat with late life and his swing and miss rate over his last two starts is an elite 12½%. Rodon does bring some risk. This top 2014 draft pick held his own in his first MLB exposure. His K-rate and swinging strikes have always held firm. His groundball rate and HR avoidance are pluses. However, his control is a different story. Rodon’s first-pitch strike rate of 52% says he has work to do. His career dominant start/disaster start split says we have to take the good with the bad. The beautiful thing about wagering is that we can pick and choose when we do take him and as a pooch in this range, Rodon’s potential dominance is worth backing because when he’s on his game, he’s elite. He’s been on his game lately.
N.Y. Mets +142 over SAN FRAN
Madison Bumgarner is an elite pitcher that needs no introductions whatsoever. Hell, you have to be elite to be favored by this much over Jacob deGrom but Bumgarner is not the problem here. The problem is the team he pitches for that blew a 4-0 lead yesterday and subsequently had the bases loaded in the ninth with none out but could not tie it. San Fran has now lost its lead in the NL West. They have dropped four in a row and five of six and they’ll be operating with a brutal and overtaxed bullpen. Of course the Mets can hang around in this one and maybe even be winning when the pens take over.
Jacob deGrom appeared to have established himself as an upper tier starter in 2015 but this season didn't get off to such a great start. There was some concern about his velocity during spring training, and a back issue slowed him for the first couple weeks of the regular season. His lack of dominance was the main focus early on but he’s back to dominating again and looking like the ace he was expected to be. deGrom has a BB/K split of 29/129 in 133 innings. He has 31 K’s in his last 31 frames with an ERA/xERA split of 2.01/2.77. Not many starters in the game can match his combination of high strikeouts, low walks, and strong groundball tilt. deGrom is absolutely a good bet to put up elite numbers the rest of the way and that includes this game where he can easily shut down the struggling Giants. The equation here is a simple one that says Jacob deGrom should never be offered a price like this because he’s capable of throwing a shutout every time he takes the mound. The same can be said about Bumgarner but the difference is that Bumgarner is favored in the -150 range in a 50/50 game. That’s value.
Brandon Lee
White Sox vs. Indians
Play: Under 8½
The books have set the total too high for Thursday's AL Central clash between the White Sox and Indians. Cleveland will be getting back starter Danny Salazar from the DL and I look for a return to form with the extra rest. Salazar is 11-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 20 starts. He's owned Chicago in his two starts against them this season, giving up just 3 runs on 7 hits in 12 innings. White Sox will send out the surging Carlos Rodon, who has a strong 3.44 ERA in his last 3 starts. Rodon is also a perfect 3-0 with a 1.34 ERA in 5 career starts against the Indians.
Tony Karpinski
Raiders vs. Packers
Play: Raiders +3
Green Bay is clinging onto the fact that they will be having their dangerous WR group ready to go this year and they dont want to risk any injuries early in the pre-season. The Pack are feeling good about their team again this season - and they should so they have nothing to prove with their starters so they will be limited action tonight.Oakland is a team right now in the NFL, coming off a nice performance vs Arizona and they are looking to establish time consuming drives with short passes to keep the chains moving. I also like the QB rotation with Carr, McGloin, and Connor Cook here tonight for the Raiders.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers -125
Detroit is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Red Sox on Thursday. We are going to get the best the Tigers have to offer in this one, as they were just swept at home in a 3-game series against the Royals. As for Boston, they have won 6 straight, but this is a tough spot for them. The Red Sox hosted Arizona on Sunday, traveled to play Cleveland in a makeup game on Monday and then just played two in Baltimore. That's a lot of travel in a span of just 4 days and I look for Boston to come out flat in this one.
The Tigers also have a big edge on the mound in this one. Detroit will send out youngster Matt Boyd, who has really came on strong of late. Boyd has a 2.82 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last 30 days and is coming off a brilliant start at Texas, where he gave up just 2 runs over 7 shutout innings. Boston counters with Clay Buchholz, who has been in an out of the rotation this year. He's just 2-8 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.507 WHIP in 14 starts.
Boston is just 1-8 over the last 2 seasons when Buchholz starts after 2 or more wins, while the Tigers are 20-7 in their last 27 home games against a team with a winning record, 18-5 in their last 23 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 5-0 in Boyd's last 5 home starts against a team with a winning record.
Alex Smart
Red Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -125
Boyd has looked extremly sharp in seven appearances – six starts – since rejoining the team from the minor leagues, just prior to the All-Star break and I recommend we back him here this afternoon. Tigers are 5-0 in Boyds last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 1-5 in Buchholzs last 6 starts.Red Sox are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
Power Sports
Mariners vs. Angels
Pick: Angels
Seattle is in the midst of a playoff race. They enter Thursday two games back of Baltimore and three back of Boston for the Wild Card. (They're also 6.5 games back of Texas in the AL West.) Meanwhile, the Angels are 20 games below .500, have dropped 12 of their last 13 and have no real reasonable expectation to contend for the remainder of the season. But, I do see the Halos "stealing" this series finale.
LA came into this series off a dreadful 0-9 road trip that included three losses in Seattle. They've at least been able to take one of the three games so far in this series, that being Tuesday's. Last night saw them lose 4-3 as they left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. I believe it's important to note that they did outhit the M's, 14-10, and had a 2-0 lead at one point.
Every game in this series has been decided by one run, so at least I can say that the Angels have been competitive. I find it telling that they are a slight favorite on the money line tonight. Yes, they were favored last night as well, but I don't see the oddsmakers making the same mistake twice. Sure enough, public money has pounded the Mariners so far. But starter Iwakuma isn't nearly as effective on the road as he is at home while Halos starter Matt Shoemaker deserves far better than a 7-16 TSR given the way he's pitched much of the year. He held Seattle to only three runs in 7 IP the last time he faced them.
Big Al
Washington vs. Atlanta
Pick: Washington
The Nats head to Hot-lanta for a four-game weekend set and right about now they might be thinking that just about any place is better than Denver. The Nats dropped two of three to the Rockies at Coors Field while being out-scored by 22-17, including the rubber game last night in which the Rox put up a dozen runs - including a whopping nine on ace Stephen Strasburg in less than two innings. It appears that RHP Reynaldo Lopez has won the fifth starter job for the Nats - at least until the injured Joe Ross is ready to return or Lucas Giolito has developed enough to be given another shot at the rotation. Lopez earned this start after the best performance of his brief career in his last outing as he tossed a career-high seven innings on one-run ball against this same Atlanta club this past Saturday at Nationals Park, a 7-6 Washington victory. Still only 22-years-old, Lopez - who was signed by the Nats back in 2012 out of the Dominican Republic - probably doesn't mind facing the Braves for this second straight time tonight. And, given Atlanta's woes this season (11-32 at home, in night games this season), he shouldn't.
Bruce Marshall
NY Mets +146
Both of these sides are wobbling in recent weeks but there is no way we can bypass this price with Mets starter Jacob deGrom, who has allowed just two runs and 19 hits over 27 2/3 IP in his last four starts. The Mets, for all of their troubles, have also won in 7 of deGrom's last nine starts. Meanwhile, the giants have the NL's worst record since the All-Star break and have now lost four straight after the Pirates completed their three-game sweep on Wednesday. MadBum is also no longer automatic, as the Giants have lost in five of his last six starts (though he's allowed only one run over his last two starts vs. the O's and Nats).
Tony George
Bengals vs. Lions
Play: Lions -1½
I like a young team finding an identity versus a veteran team looking to avoid the injury big and keeping a recuperating Andy Dalton and his throwing hand (thumb) limited with snaps. The main key in this game is the OL and DL for the Bengals which is well publicized in the preseason that they are having issues and it showed in their week 1 game against the Vikes. I like the Lions who should be more aggressive here, and the main focus in weeks 1 and 2 again for veteran teams and not youthful teams is to get in a series or two and then look at players the rest of the game who no doubt half of them won’t make the roster cuts. Advantage Lions here who racked up 30 points in Week 1 and are at home tonight.
Jack Jones
Houston Astros +119
After losing four straight games coming into this series, the Houston Astros are highly motivated for a victory. At 61-59 on the season, they are going to need a big finish if they want to get back to the postseason.
Their last win came with Joe Musgrove on the mound as he allowed 2 earned runs over 7 innings in a 5-3 victory at Toronto. Musgrove has been impressive in two starts and one relief appearance this season, going 1-0 with a 1.47 ERA with 21 strikeouts to only two walks in 18 1/3 innings.
Kevin Gausman hasn't had a whole lot of success this season for the Orioles. he has gone 3-10 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.330 WHIP over 21 starts. Gausman faced the Astros for the first and only time earlier this season, giving up four earned runs and three homers over 5 innings of a 2-4 loss.
Houston is 11-3 (+8.5 Units) against the money line after a loss by four runs or more this season. The Orioles are 5-15 in Gausman's last 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 2-8 in Gausman's last 10 starts vs. AL West opponents. Houston is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
Dave Price
Philadelphia Phillies +148
The Philadelphia Phillies had won 4 straight prior to losing the first 2 games of this series to the Dodgers. Now they'll be hungry to avoid the sweep with a home victory in Game 3. The Phillies should not be underdogs in this game when you consider the big advantage they have on the mound. Jared Eickhoff has been at his best at home this year, going 5-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 12 starts. He'll be opposed by Ross Stripling, who is 2-4 with a 4.61 ERA in 10 starts, including 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a loss and 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Matt Josephs
Mariners +103
Matt Shoemaker is 6-13 with a 4.22 ERA in 23 starts for the Angels. Two of those losses came at the hands of the Mariners who have hit him up for 10 runs and 13 hits in 10 innings. Seattle is hitting .268 against right-handed starters and .269 in their last seven games overall. The Mariners have won five of their last seven games. The Angels bullpen actually has a less then 50% success rate at home in saving games. Hisashi Iwakuma has won three straight starts allowing just three runs and one walk over that span. Iwakuma is 8-3 with a 2.95 ERA and a WHIP of 1.004 in 15 career starts against the Angels. LAA is hitting .208 over their last seven games and are in a funk overall. Seattle has actually won four of their last six in Anaheim this season. I think that trend continues.
Bruce Marshall
Minnesota -103
The Royals have clawed back to .500 after winning 9 of 11 and are starting to think they might be able to make a run at an AL wild card spot, not quite as far over the horizon as it seemed two weeks ago. But the improving Twins present a tough hurdle on Thursday with starter Tyler Duffey, who has has bounced back the last two starts with three earned runs in 13 innings with 14 strikeouts. KC starter Dillon Gee was hit hard by the Twins in a loss last Saturday at Target Field, allowing 5 runs and 11 hits in just 5 1/3 IP. KC is just 1-8 in the last nine games in which Gee has pitched.