Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, August 25th, 2016

Jason Sharpe

Dallas (+6) over Seattle

You don't see many NFL preseason contests with a point spread sitting at this level here in this one. There's been two games so far in this 5-6 point range, and both have been covered by the underdog as getting points at this level in these type of games is usually a good thing. The biggest story to come out of the NFL preseason so far has been the electric play of Dallas Cowboys rookie quarterback Dak Prescott. The 23 year-old Prescott has been sensational so far, having completed over 80% of his throws for 4 touchdowns and a perfect 158.3 QB rating. The preseason is all about getting good QB play and it's set-up for guys like the mobile Prescott to succeed as he's averaging over 8 yards per rush so far as well. With the Cowboys worried about Romo's health, I expect another heavy dose of Prescott in this game, and as we've seen so far that's a good this preseason. Take Dallas plus the points here.

Vernon Croy

Detroit (-1.5) over Minnesota

The Tigers have the superior pitcher on the mound Thursday afternoon. Opponents have hit .328 against Berrios this season, leaving him with an ERA of 9.28 over his 8 starts. Berrios was lit up in his only day game start this season, lasting just 2 innings and leaving with an ERA of 22.50. Berrios lasted just 0.2 innings against the Tigers back on May 16, allowing 7 earned runs, which left him with an ERA of 94.50. Berrios has control issues, and I look for the Tigers to give Norris plenty of run support Thursday. Norris has an ERA of just 2.93 over his 3 starts since the All-Star break, and the Twins only have 10 total team at bats lifetime against him. Play Detroit runline -1.5 with confidence. .

DAVE COKIN

ROYALS VS MARLINS
PLAY: MARLINS F5

Here’s a game where there’s a huge conflict between historical data and current form. I tend to stress the present numbers far more than deep past performance. That being the case, I’ll get this out of the way right off the top. Edinson Volquez has owned the Marlins. He’s 6-0 lifetime against Miami, with a superb 1.64 ERA. So Volquez might be in a good mental place approaching this game. That’s the one thing he has in his favor.

The Royals also have some stellar team current form in the mix, as they’d been on a huge tear before running into Jose Fernandez on Wednesday night. Much of that streak has been a direct result of what has been a phenomenal stretch by the KC bullpen. Royals relievers have now gone 34.2 consecutive innings without surrendering even a single run. And that fact immediately rules out any possibility of my making a full game wager against them.

But I’m not averse to going with the Marlins to win the first half of this one. Tom Koehler has never been anything more than a back end of the rotation starting pitcher. I won’t say that’s about to change as far as the long term is concerned, but right at the present time, Koehler is in what I’d call well above average form. I like the game score grading formula, and Koehler has some very attractive numbers over his last six starts. His most recent was about average, so it’s possible he could be beginning a regression to his norm. But he hasn’t had a clunker since mid-July, and Koehler actually owns some pretty decent home metrics for the season to date.

Volquez is in the midst of a really bad run. He’s had five straight starts that have ranged from average to awful. I can attribute some of this to lousy BABIP luck, as those numbers have been a little nuts in four of the five outings. But it also has to be noted that when Volquez has made a mistake lately, the baseball has ended up traveling rather long distances.

I decided to go ahead and buck the history angle here and back the pitcher in clearly better current form. That’s Koehler, so my play is on the Marlins. But bear in mind this is strictly a F5 play as I have zero desire to try and battle that Kansas City bullpen.

Sleepyj

Dallas / Seattle Under 44

I like a few things about this game that put me right on the under...First off we get the starters for a decent amount of time...How many points will the Seahawks give up at home to the first unit?....My guess is not many and we all remember who one of the only teams over the last few years to win in Seattle was...Yep, Cowboys....Seattle on the other hand hasn't been anything special on offense..They avg just 14ppg this preseason and the starters haven't contributed much to that grand total of 28 points....Cowboys lit the scoreboard up last week and a regression should come from them in a big way...Dak Prescott has had enough throws IMO...Why stick this kid back in the pocket against Seattle 1st or 2nd string..He proved his worth and running the ball will be key here for Dallas....Neither team wants to risk injury at this point..Go out get the reps, work on blocking and some basic timing routes...I doubt these teams are looking for rock solid performance here...Seattle is great off a loss in the preseason, but I'm not sold Carroll looks to run up the score with his depth guys...This might be the most boring game we see Dallas in all preseason...I'm on the under..44 seems way off here...38 is the line I made...Under it is.

Detroit -118

Detroit will send out LHP Norris for today's game....He has been rather sharp in his starts this year...His last 7 trips to the mound have been rather good...He hasn't allowed 3 or more runs during that stretch....Walks can be an issue with him, but I'm not scared of this Twins lineup to be honest...Twins haven't seen Norris and that's a benefit for us here...Twins will send out Jose Berrios...His ERA is rather scary and his last 8 games have been rather bad...He opposite of of Norris has given up a ton of ER in the last 8...Only 3 games has he had a 3ER or less game..The other 5 games have resulted in 4,5,6,7 run games...Not very good at all...Another guy who can walk batters and get into trouble....Unlike Norris to the Twins, Berrios has been seen by the Tigers...Tiger drilled him back in Mid May...So perhaps we have some motivation to face Berrios today...Norris has been unable to pick up a win even in his good start the last 5 games..he should be looking hard at getting in the win column...Tigers right now sit 6.5 games back in the division, but only 3 games out of the WC...Tigers lineup much stronger and the pitching looks to be a decent margin for this contest..Tigers get the nod here.

Rob Vinciletti

Mariners vs. White Sox
Play: Mariners -154

Seattle is 10-1 as a road favorite from -150 to -175 and is averaging over 5 runs per game the past week. Chicago has lost 6 of 8 as a home dog in this range. Road favorites league wide since 2004 that are off a home loss scoring 2 or less runs like Seattle are 17-4 vs an opponent like the Whitesox that lost at home last out. Paxton is back for Seattle and he has a 1.69 era in his last 3 starts and has a 1.42 era vs Chicago. Ranaduo counters for Chicago and he has an elevated Era at 6.75 on the year. Look for Seattle to take the opener.

Heath Mac

Falcons vs. Dolphins
Play: Falcons +2

We like the way the Falcons have been playing this preseason and they look like they have solid depth at QB with Schaub and Simms both looking good, though we'll reserve full judgement until the real stuff begins. the Dolphins were awful last week (though they did help us land our 4* play of the week on the Cowboys). Atlanta's secondary has been pretty good and we're not sure the Dolphins are going to do any better than they did last week. They'll need to if they are going to be competitive though - the Dolphin's secondary put up 0 sacks, 0 interceptions, 0 forced fumbles last week....

Miami is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games at home. Atlanta is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Not sure why we are getting the points here, but a good rule to follow in preseason football betting is to take the better team when they are getting points and that is exactly what is happening here.

Big Al

Detroit vs. Minnesota
Pick: Detroit

Last season, the Detroit Tigers finished in last place in the Central for the first time since 2008 and missed the post-season for the first time in five years. About six weeks into the 2016 season it looked like more of the same for them as the Tigers were six games under .500 on May 14 and appeared to be headed for another under-achieving campaign. But they've come roaring back (no pun intended) and with a little more than a month to go, Detroit finds itself not only in the thick of the Wild Card hunt, but also within striking distance of the first-place Indians. They have to take advantage of these series against teams like the Twins and over the past two nights they've done just that and now they go for the three-game sweep behind LHP Daniel Norris. Although he's just 23 and has appeared in just 25 MLB games, Norris is the more experienced of the two starters tonight as the Twins will send out 22-year-old RH Jose Berrios. It's been a rough rookie campaign for Berrios who is 2-3 with a 9.28 ERA in eight starts. Berrios struggled with his command last time out, as he walked four and gave up four runs in four rain-shortened innings against the Royals on Saturday.

Jim Feist

Giants at Dodgers
Pick: Under

This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of strong pitching staffs square off. San Francisco is on a 5-2-1 run under the total on the road, plus 9-4-1 under away against a righty starter. Matt Moore is on the mound, a great strikeout pitcher. Ross Stripling goes here for the home team and the Under is 5-1 in Stripling's last six home starts. LA is 11-3 under the total at home against a left-handed starter and this shapes up as a defensive duel between two rivals in a pennant race.

Chase Diamond

Royals vs Marlins
Play: Marlins

This game has the red hot Royals 65-61 they have won 9 out of their last 10 games but were shutout by these Marlins last night. Tom Koehler goes for the Marlins and he's been a solid pitcher 9-8 with a 3.82 ERA. Edison Volquez has had issues since the All-Star break posting a ultra high 7.16 ERA even though the Royals as a team lead the league in team ERA at 2.43 in August. 59% are backing the Royals here yet we are starting to see this game become a plus money play for the Royals. I think Vegas will steer as much money as possible toward this Royals club tonight. Tom Koehler has an ERA of 1.62 since July 21 and the Royals have been bad on the road going 7-19 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

David Banks

Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: Miami Dolphins -2

A year ago, Miami’s defensive front dominated the offensive line of Atlanta. The Falcons, unbeaten at 2-0 this preseason, would like a shot at redemption. For the Dolphins, defensive end Cameron Wake, who has not played since last October, will be a game-time decision as to whether or not he plays. Wake tore an Achilles tendon last year and has not played a snap yet this preseason. If he does not play, it is likely that he will not see game action until Week 1 of the regular season.

The Dolphins are 1-1 in preseason play and the offense is still becoming acclimated to the new system of head coach Adam Gase. Miami is looking for big things out of second-year wide receiver DeVante Parker. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill could become Gase’s next successful project. Gase helped Bears QB Jay Cutler improve dramatically last season as the offensive coordinator in Chicago. The big question on the Miami offense is at center where All-Pro Mike Pouncey is still listed as questionable.

The Falcons have arguably one of the best offenses in all of the NFL with QB Matt Ryan, RB Devonta Freeman, and WR Julio Jones, who led the league last year in receiving yards. If the defense can stay healthy, the Falcons could be a team to watch in the NFC South. Linebacker Vic Beasley Jr., who suffered a sprained shoulder last week, is set to play on Thursday night against the Dolphins.

Both teams will play their starters considerably as they prepare for Week 1 of the regular season. Thursday’s game will be played in Orlando at Camping World Stadium, not at the Dolphins home Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens.

Oskeim Sports

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
Play: Atlanta Falcons +2

Atlanta has all of the technical edges in this game, beginning with the fact that the Falcons are 10-1 ATS in the preseason following an upset win versus an opponent off a straight-up loss. The Dolphins are a money-burning 20-35 ATS in preseason play since 1990 (1-1 ATS this season under new head coach Adam Gase). Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in five consecutive week 3 exhibition games.

The Falcons' offensive line is hell-bent on avenging last year's third preseason game where the Dolphins' front seven (Cameron Wake, Ndamukong Suh, Olivier Vernon & Earl Mitchell, in particular), dominated the line of scrimmage. "We didn't really show up that day," Atlanta right tackle Ryan Schraeder said. "We had some rough series."

The Falcons offensive line is not short on talent (and confidence) after dominating the line of scrimmage in last Thursday's 24-13 win over Cleveland. Quarterback Matt Ryan has yet to be sacked this season and Atlanta's running game looked explosive last week. "That was last year; this is this year," left tackle Jake Matthews said of last year's poor effort. "This year, we're coming off a good game of rushing in the second preseason game. We want to carry that over and keep it going."

Meanwhile, Miami's secondary has looked terrible during training camp and through the first two weeks of the preseason. Tony Lippett, Bobby McCain and Byron Maxwell have all missed assignments in the backfield, and the Dolphins' tackling has been subpar at best. Indeed, Dallas quarterbacks Tony Romo and Dak Prescott had 107.5 and 158.3 passer ratings, respectively. Prescott garnered 199 passing yards and four touchdowns in limited action!

Zack Cimini

Giants at Dodgers
Play: Dodgers

Before the Dodgers and Giants series the Dodgers were just a game in front of the Giants. Now, they have the chance to move four full games and build a likely insurmountable division lead. After not scoring any runs Wednesday the Giants are becoming vulnerable in too many areas on the field. They're also now 11-25 since the All-Star break. This is where momentum continues to shine, as the Giants are a team soul searching and not finding answers. Matt Moore is in too tough of a spot here against a hot Dodgers lineup. Grab the Dodgers to sweep the series.

Ben Burns

Washington -217

Obviously the price is pretty steep here. However, given the pitching matchup, I feel the it could easily be even higher. Scherzer has a stellar 2.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 10 home starts. Opposing batters have hit only .176 against him here. On the other hand, Jimenez is 1-6 with a 7.91 ERA and 2.061 WHIP in eight road starts. He has yet to start in August after making just three starts in July. He was 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in those games. Scherzer gets the better of Jimenez and the Nats bounce back with a much-needed win.

BRANDON LEE

Nationals -1½ +100

Washington is worth a look on the run line Thursday against the Orioles. The Nationals have now dropped 3 straight against Baltimore and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder Thursday to take the final game of the series. They certainly are in a great spot to do so, as they send out their ace Max Scherzer against the struggling Ubaldo Jimenez. Scherzer has a 3.05 ERA in 26 starts and has been at his best at home, where he has a 2.60 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in 10 starts. Jimenez owns an ugly 6.72 ERA in 18 starts overall and has a 7.91 ERA in 8 road starts and 10.13 ERA in his last 3 outings. I look for the Nationals to put up a big number here offensively and easily win this one by 2 or more runs.