JACK JONES
Miami Marlins -121
The Kansas City Royals just had their nine-game winning streak snapped yesterday. I look for them to suffer a bit of a hangover effect here against the Miami Marlins. I also like the fact that the Marlins have a huge edge on the mound here.
Tom Koehler has quietly been dominant for the Marlins since the All-Star Break. He has posted a 1.62 ERA over his last six starts, which has covered 39 innings. He has allowed only 26 hits while striking out 30 in that span.
The Royals will give the ball to Edinson Volquez, who is 9-10 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in 26 starts, including 3-7 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in 11 road starts. Volquez has posted a 7.16 ERA over his last five starts while allowing six homers and 26 runs in that span.
Kansas City is 2-12 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring one run or less this season. The Royals are 6-20 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Marlins are 4-0 in Koehler's last four home starts.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Under 9
We are getting great line value here as many are jumping on the over because the Brewers Wily Peralta has poor overall numbers this season. The key here is that Peralta has been pitching much better since he returned to the rotation after a demotion. In fact, the Milwaukee right-hander has a 2.25 ERA in his two home starts since returning and has only allowed 8 hits while striking out 11 in the 12 innings spanning those two outings. He'll be opposed by the Pirates Chad Kuhl tonight and he also has been pitching very well. The young Pittsburgh right-hander has pitched at least 6 innings while also allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts! On the road this season Kuhl has a 2.00 ERA and he has an edge here in that the Brewers have never faced him. As for Peralta, he has allowed just 3 earned runs on only 10 hits in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts against them. The under is 13-7 this season when the Pirates are on the road and priced in a range of -100 to -150. Also, the under is 14-7 this season in the Brewers last 21 games against teams with a winning record.
MIKE LUNDIN
Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -163
Runs have come easy for both the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Atlanta Braves as the teams have combined for 47 runs and 77 hits in the first three games of the four-game series. I like the D'Backs to get the better of their opponent here in the series-finale with a huge advantage on the mound.
Matt Wisler (4-11, 5.16 ERA) takes the ball for Atlanta. He'll make his first start since July 28 when he was sent down to the minors following a rough stretch. Wisler went 1-3 with a 10.18 ERA while serving up nine homers in 20 1/3 innings in his last four starts in the majors.
The D'Backs turn to Robbie Ray (7-11, 4.31). The left-hander has pitched effectively lately and enters the game as the reigning National League Player of the Week. He's 2-0 with an 0.95 ERA in his past three starts but allowed three runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings at Atlanta on Aug. 14, 2015. He should still be able to put up a good enough performance to earn Arizona the W tonight.
Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last seven home games, Braves are 2-9 in their last 11 overall.
DAVE PRICE
Seattle Mariners -140
Off back-to-back losses, the Seattle Mariners are hungry for a win here tonight in Game 1 of this series with the Chicago White Sox. The Mariners have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs at 67-59 on the season, while the White Sox are playing for pride here down the stretch. James Paxton is 4-5 with a 3.53 ERA in 13 starts this year, and 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.797 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Paxton gave up 1 earned run over 6 1/3 innings in his lone lifetime start vs. Chicago. Anthony Ranaudo will be making just his 3rd start of the season. The first 2 have not gone well as he's 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.406 WHIP while allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 2/3 innings. The Mariners are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss.
FRANK JORDAN
Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Atlanta Falcons +2
Miami is 1-1 in the preseason while Atlanta comes in 2-0. Atlanta has been scoring in the low 20s winning over Washington 23-17 and over Cleveland 24-13. Atlanta has three Matts playing quarterback in Simms, Ryan, and Schaub and all three are playing well along with Freeman in the backfield and Jones split out wide. Atlanta started 2015 hot winning five in a row and six out of seven, but then lost their next six to finish 8-8. Atlanta has a strong offense, but the defense is suspect at times so they need to find a good balance between the two and they can make a run. Miami went 6-10 last year and had a point differential of -79. Miami won back to back games just once while four times they lost consecutive games. This is the year the Dolphins need Tannehill to step up and move up to the next level and be consistent. This is a good match up of quarterback/wide receiver combos with Ryan and Jones against Tannehill and Landry. Look for Ryan and Jones to win that match up leading to a 28-21 victory for the Falcons over the Dolphins.
SPORTS WAGERS
B.C. Lions +115 over OTTAWA
Before Henry Burris can derail their season any further, the Redblacks will turn back to Trevor Harris who started the season guns a blazing before going down with an injury. This story is actually receiving national attention, as Ottawa will sit a healthy Burris, who was last season’s Most Outstanding Player. There's an overreaction to the Burris benching to be sure and despite how great Harris was in the first part of the year (and he was), there may be bigger issues facing this club. You see, Ottawa is the only team to lose to Saskatchewan this season. As a -9 and -10 point favorite over Toronto and Montreal respectively, Ottawa lost both those games outright. The Redblacks have lost three of four with only win over that span being an undeserving one against Edmonton, 23-20. Trevor Harris is not likely to fix that in one start. When he came in to relieve Henry Burris in the first game of the season, his timing, preparation and conditioning was on par with every player in the league. He’ll now play for the first time in a month and it’s not like he’s facing a weak opponent. Ottawa has played five straight games in succession against the CFL’s weakest group and they have performed horribly. One key player back after a month layoff may help but Ottawa’s overall level of play is one that cannot be endorsed right now.
What we like about the Lions here is that they’re coming off an absolutely embarrassing performance in its biggest game of the year last week. The Lions were torched by Calgary in B.C. by a score of 37-9 and they were out-gained by 181 yards. A response is in order and the Lions have the talent to do just that. Indeed, the timing for a disgusting effort was bad for the Lions last week but it happens. The Carolina Panthers in last year’s Super Bowl came up with their worst performance of the season when it mattered most. Again, it happens but one cannot reasonably expect another performance like that one six days later.
Prior to last week, the Lions had racked up massive yardage in four straight while scoring 40, 41, 38 and 45 points respectively. That includes a 44-41 victory over Calgary and a 45-38 victory over the Tigercats. The Lions wickedly proficient offense is capable of picking apart any defense in this league. Look, Ottawa appears to be in very good hands with Harris, as the Redblacks had only lost once in his five starts. However, layoffs aren’t easy to come back from and Ottawa’s losing mindset right now isn’t easy to overcome either. We love what Harris has brought to Ottawa but B.C. is in better shape coming into this matchup with nothing but quality performances all season long minus last week. Lions outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Mets +154 over ST. LOUIS
Seth Lugo is quite the story and it’s about a guy that would not give up and that was a big longshot to make it to this level. His story inspires and it also prompts his teammates to dig down a little deeper in support of him. Lugo was drafted in the 34th round (1032nd overall) by the Mets in 2011. He served as the ace for Centenary in 2011, the Shreveport program’s final year in Division I before dropping to D-III status, but he sure didn't pitch like one by going 3-7 with a 5.57 ERA. Regardless, he impressed the Mets at a pre-draft workout and the club made him a 34th-round pick in 2011. Lugo missed the entire 2012 season after being diagnosed with the disorder spondylolisthesis, which necessitated a 10-hour surgical procedure to repair a displaced vertebra in his spine. Doctors warned him that he might not pitch again but Lugo returned in the second half of 2013 then worked out of the bullpen in 2014. He returned to the rotation at Double-A Binghamton in 2015 and led the system with 127 strikeouts, thanks to the best breaking ball on the farm: a plus, mid-70s curveball with tight spin and late break. Lugo tops out at 95 mph and ranges from 88-95 mph. He also throws a slider and changeup that show average potential, and he's always around the plate with all four of his pitches.
Lugo has made just one start this year and it was a decent one in San Fran six days ago. Overall, Lugo has a BB/K split of 7/19 in 24 frames. Over his last 16 innings, his BB/K split was 3/14 with an elite swing and miss rate of 15%. His sub-indicators are good too with 62% first-pitch strikes and 73% when he started. Beware of the athlete with a bulldog mentality. Heart and determination can turn an average pitcher into a very good one. Lugo just keeps getting better and he just keeps coming. He’s not the type of pitcher we like to fade.
Then there’s Adam Wainwright, another pitcher with a bulldog mentality but there is a difference in that Lugo is fresh while Wainwright is not. After missing nearly all of last season with an Achilles injury, Wainwright got off to an awful start in 2016, putting up a 6.80 ERA over his first eight starts. He’s made 17 more starts since then to take his number of starts this season to 25. That’s 151 innings thus far and Wainwright appears to be running on fumes. He’s walked 11 batters over his past 26 frames while striking out 20. That’s a weak ratio. His velocity is down to an average of 89.9 MPH and his swinging strike rate has dropped from 10% to 8% over his last five starts. Wainwright has one quality start over his last five tries. Over that span, he posted a 7.71 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. He’s now favored like he’s strong and pitching well when he is in fact, weak and pitching poorly.pitching poorly.
Pittsburgh -1½ +138 over MILWAUKEE
The Pirates just completed a six-game home stand, where they went 1-5. Prior to that, Pittsburgh played two, three-game sets in San Fran and Los Angeles respectively and went 5-1. We’ll look for the Pirates road success to continue here against Wily Peralta. Peralta brings his poor 6.00 ERA into this home start. He also brings a .341 oppBA and a 6.36 xERA. Peralta has a horrible BB/K split of 33/54 in 84 innings. He throws a flat 94 MPH fastball 70% of the time because he does not trust his other pitches. His other main pitch is a slider that he throws 21% of the time. When he’s missing with the slider, which is often, he is then forced to use his fastball and batters are sitting dead red. Peralta's 75% disaster start rate is the lowest in the majors among pitchers with 15 or more starts. Dude is batting practice out there.
Chad Kuhl has made just seven starts but five of those have been of the pure quality variety. He comes in with a 3.62 ERA and a BB/K split of 9/22 in 37 innings. Those numbers are simply average but Kuhl is a student of the game and his underlying numbers like his chances to improve. Kuhl would have an above-average fastball just based on velocity (he sits in the low 90s), but what makes it a plus pitch is that there’s a tremendous amount of sink to it. He’s got the stuff to be a groundball machine, and the power of his fastball/sinker allows it to miss bats. Kuhl also throws a slider and a change, and while those pitches lag behind the sinking fastball by a considerable margin, they’re both usable. The slider is another groundball pitch with late tilt, but doesn’t have depth and isn’t going to be a swing-and-miss offering at the big-league level. The change offers a bit of tumble, but it lacks firmness and there’s a slight difference in arm speed when he throws it.
If you’re looking to back a starter who is going to miss a ton of bats and wow you with electric stuff, Kuhl isn’t and never will be that pitcher. What he can do is give hitters uncomfortable at bats, and keep the ball below the knees while keeping the self-inflicted damage to a minimum. Assuming he throws strikes and has that sinking fastball working, he’ll be effective. If he has to rely more on his secondary pitches, he might have a bad time but these Brewers figure to help him out tremendously because they have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Milwaukee has struck out more times (1191) than any team in baseball. We promise you that both Ray Searage, the Pirates outstanding pitching coach, and Chad Kuhl are fully aware.
Power Sports
Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Pittsburgh
This is a revenge spot for the Bucs. Given the 3.5 game deficit they currently face in the NL Wild Card race, it's something they must take advantage of. Their opponents (Milwaukee) come in riding a four-game win streak, but that's only served to drive the price down to a point we can now exploit. Great price on the better team tonight.
Prior to last Saturday, the Pirates had yet to lose a start made by Chad Kuhl. He came in w/ a 6-0 TSR. Despite allowing only three runs (one unearned) to Miami, he took the loss in a series that did not go well for Pittsburgh. But I'll certainly take Kuhl over Milwaukee's Wily Peralta, who checks in w/ a 6.00 ERA and 1.738 WHIP over 16 starts this year. Last time out, Peralta was roughed up for four runs in six innings at Seattle. He was a big underdog in this spot, so there looks to be tremendous value in going against him here. The Pirates offense ranks sixth this year in on base percentage.
The Brew Crew have not lost since the last time Peralta started, but I don't put a ton of stock into a sweep of the Rockies. It is unfathomable to me that Pittsburgh is just 17-64 its L81 games here at Miller Park, but remember that includes some real 'lean years' here in the Steel City. I really like the road team at this price.
Larry Ness
Giants at Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy says he isn’t ready to push ‘the panic button’ but the Giants’ 1-0 loss last night in LA was the team’s fourth in a row and eighth in its last 10. Bochy’s team is a major league-worst 11-25 since the All-Star break and has fallen three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Yes, there are 36 games remaining, but the Giants have just completed a 36-game stretch in which the team has won just 11 times! The Dodgers have now won four straight and the team has fought through injuries to catch the free-falling Giants.
Matt Moore (7-10, 4.18 ERA overall for Tampa bay and San Francisco) will face Ross Stripling (3-4, 4.04 ERA) in the finale of this three-game series Thursday, as the Dodgers go for a sweep. Moore will be making his fifth start for the Giants since being acquired in an August 1 trade with the Rays and is still in search of his first win, having gone 0-3 (team is 1-3) with a 4.70 ERA. He suffered a loss in his last outing Saturday against the New York Mets, allowing three runs on five hits in five innings of a 9-5 loss to the Mets. Moore has made just two career starts against the Dodgers, splitting his two decisions while posting a 5.73 ERA.
LA’s Stripling rejoined the rotation in early August because of a slew of injuries to the team’s pitching staff. He’s made six appearances, including three starts, since the All-Star break. Stripling is 1-1 with a 3.16 ERA in that span, limiting opposing batters to a .224 average while striking out 19 and walking just five. The rookie made his major league debut against the Giants back on April 8 and took a no-hit bid into the eighth inning. The Giants have lost EIGHT of their last nine games at Dodger Stadium, so why not make it NINE of 10 right here?
Drew Martin
Seattle at Chicago
Play: Seattle -140
The Chicago White Sox host the Seattle Mariners tonight for the opener of a four-game series. A couple key metrics point to the M’s snapping their two-game skid vs. a struggling pitcher for the White Sox. Anthony Ranaudo will be making his third start since being acquired from Texas and first since escaping with a no decision at Cleveland on Aug. 17 -- five runs and eight hits allowed in four innings. The 26-year-old native of New Jersey has yielded eight runs and 10 hits, including four homers, over 10.2 innings in his two outings with Chicago. He will be opposing James Paxton, the hard throwing Canadian lefty who is making his first start coming off the disabled list. He had a promising start with three strikeouts in three innings for Triple-A Tacoma on Saturday. Reports stated that Paxton's command and velocity were good. Paxton is someone with a ton of upside but over the course of a full season, will lose his mechanics and thus struggle. But when he's on, the stuff is as good as any lefty starter in the game. Prior to a quick stint on the DL, Paxton put together four starts in which he allowed only five earned runs and flashed an impressive 27-3 K-to-BB ratio. Note that the Mariners will also have an edge in the late innings as the White Sox bullpen grades out as one of the worst in the American League. Plenty of edges here to warrant the road chalk.