Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, August 4

DAVE COKIN

PIRATES VS. BRAVES
PLAY: PIRATES -130

Ryan Vogelsong returns from a lengthy DL stint after getting hit in the eye by a batted ball in one of the scarier incidents I can remember. He’s looked okay in his rehab starts, and I wouldn’t think there’s any particular restriction on pitch count, though 90 is probably the max for Vogelsong.

I don’t have a problem trying to beat Tyrell Jenkins here. Jenkins has a live arm and looks like a guy who could become a rotation fixture for the Braves if he can improve his control. That remains an issue, and even in a quality start like his last one, there was still a problem with walks. But I don’t want to overly downgrade Jenkins either, and his starts aside from a disaster at Coors haven’t been that awful. What is awful is the Braves recent record when playing off a win. They’re just seemingly unable to string W’s together and stand 2-12 in their last 14 after celebrating a victory.

I’ll admit to some misgivings on the Pirates as they kind of look like a dead team right now. But strange as it sounds, I’m keying Vogelsong here. I think he’s going to want to prove he has no residual effects from the injury. There was buzz following the injury that his career was finished, and I can see him wanting to show everyone he’s okay. The price is acceptable where it is presently, and I’ll give the Pirates a roll tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

White Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Under 8½

This game fits a solid totals system here today and the pitching suggests a low scoring game as well. Quintana for Chicago has pitched under in 17 of 20 starts and has a stellar 2.88 road era. J. Zimmerman has a 2.70 era vs Chicago. The Tigers have gone under in 6 of 8 vs losing teams and the Whitesox 6 of 8 vs winning teams. Play this one under the total.

Art Aronson

Blue Jays vs. Astros
Play: Astros +115

Houston opened with a win against the Jays in Game 1 of this four game series, but Toronto would grab Game’s 2 and 3. With a chance to even the series up, we think Houston offers pretty good value in this spot. As far as scheduling is concerned, this is a great situational play. The Jays have a quick turnaround with a three game series starting tomorrow night in Kansas City, while Houston stays at home to open a series with the Rangers. Astros’ starter Mike Fiers (7-4, 4.42 ERA) has appeared in two games vs. Toronto (one start) and gone 1-0 with a tiny 1.13 ERA over eight innings. Fiers has been sharp of late as well, going 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last two starts. Blue Jays’ starter JA Happ owns a 3.50 ERA in six lifetime starts vs. the Astros. We think the home side is definitely worthy of a second look in this matchup.

Marc Lawrence

Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Play: Kansas City +128

Edges - Royals: Ian Kennedy 17 Ks and 4 BBs last three starts. Rays: 2-6 on Thursdays this season; and Drew Smyly 1-6 with 6.35 ERA and 1.59 WHIP last seven team starts; and 1-5 team starts versus A.L. Central this season. With that, look for the Rays to fall to 3-18 the last 21 games in this series here this afternoon. We recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.

Brandon Shively

White Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Under 8½

While the Detroit Tigers have won their last eight games, I have won my last eight Games of the Week/Month in baseball so we both have something in common and that is WE are on FIRE!....I have a lean on the Tigers Moneyline here as they are 16-3 this season as a home favorite of -125 to -150 and the White Sox are 0-7 their L7 games as a road underdog of +125 to +150. But looking at this game closer, I am going to recommend a Free 1* Play on the UNDER of 8 .5 runs.

Jose Quintana is on the mound today and the UNDER is 17-3 in his 20 starts this season. Quintana is the best UNDER pitcher in the Majors this season and I think this spot fits him today. It’s an afternoon game which means a few starters might be sitting. Quintana has already made 11 day starts this season which is more than is 10 night starts, so this is a familiar role for him. In his 2 starts vs the Tigers this season, Quintana has a 2.38 FIP and a 3.35 FIP. His last two road starts (@ Minnesota and @ Seattle) have been excellent to the tune of 16 strikeouts in 12.2 IP and only 2 ER given up.

Jordan Zimmerman makes his first start since coming off the DL and sources say Zimmerman has fixed his mechanics that were hurting him before landing on the DL. Zimmerman opened the season only giving up 2 ER in his first five starts in April and I expect him to regain the form

Brian O’Nora will be behind home plate and he has historically been a good under umpire with a big strike zone. The Under is 3-1 this season when the total is 8.5 or less. He was the umpire on 4/09 when Kershaw and Bumgarner dueled to a 3-2 game. There were 20 strikeouts and only 5 walks called in that game. Point being it looks like O’Nora likes to call the game in favor of the pitchers, especially when there are two quality guys on the mound. He just called the Blue Jays/Orioles game last Sunday with Sanchez and Tillman on the mound. That score was tied 2-2 going into extras. Dating back to last season, the Under is 8-3 in O'Nora L11 games behind home plate. The UNDER is also 6-2 in his L8 Thursday games vs Detroit and 7-2 to the UNDER in his L9 Thursday games overall. I think we see a close game here with a final score in the 3-2 range.

Jim Feist

Pirates vs. Braves
Play: Under 9

Pittsburgh heads out on the road with an average offense, 15th in runs, 19th in on-base percentage. Pittsburgh is on a 7-1 run under the total on the road, and the Under is 9-1 in the Pirates last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Atlanta is a big park and veteran Ryan Vogelsong (3.74 ERA) will step in as a starter. The Under is 12-4-1 in the Braves last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter. Atlanta's offense is dreadful, last in baseball in runs scored. Tyrell Jenkins is on the mound, off a 2-1 win over Philadelphia with no earned runs allowed. And the Under is 4-0 in Jenkins' last 4 starts overall.

Bob Harvey

White Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -134

The red-hot Detroit Tigers aim for their ninth straight win and a series sweep of the Chicago White Sox when the teams meet in Motown. Game time is slated for 1:10 PM ET at Comerica Park where the Tigers are-134 moneyline favorites. The total is 8.5.

While the Tigers have moved within two games of division-leading Cleveland, the White Sox (51-55, 23-31) have dropped three in a row and six of seven on their eight-game road trip.

The Tigers (58-48, 30-19 home) have been bolstered by the return of J.D. Martinez who returned from an elbow fracture to homer on the first pitch he in Wednesday's 2-1 win. He’ll be making his first start since June 16.

A pair of veteran righthanders will duel in Detroit. Jose Quintana (8-8, 2.89 ERA) draws the start for the Chisox while Jordan Zimmerman (9-4, 3.95 ERA) will go for the Tigers. Quintana is 3-0 mark with a 1.95 ERA in five starts with two no-decisions. He twirled 6.1 scoreless innings against the Detroit on June 24.

Zimmerman has been on the disabled list with a strained neck and will be making make his first start since June 16. He allowed two runs in 5.2 innings in a 10-3 romp over the White Sox on June 3. Bettors alert: Zimmerman will likely be on a pitch count.

Chicago is 9-24 in its last 33 road games and 1-8 in Quintana’s past nine outings. The White Sox are 15-39 in their last 34 games in Detroit. The Tigers are 25-10 in their past 35 home games.

The UNDER is 10-1 in Quintana’s last 11 road starts while Detroit is 14-6-1 to the low side in its previous 21 games. The Tigers are 27-18-4 to the over this season.

Bruce Marshall

Chicago at Detroit
Pick: Chicago

The Detroit win streak has grown to 8 but today the Tigers cross their fingers with starter Jordan Zimmerman, who has been on the DL for over a month with neck issues and was getting routinely raked before being shut down. The Chisox almost always get a good effort out of Jose Quintana (2.89 ERA), winning in four of his last five starts.

Robert Ferringo

Pittsburgh / Atlanta Over 9

I can't believe Ryan Vogelsong has been able to convince someone that he should still be a starter. He hasn't pitched in the Bigs since May, and I don't see him going more than four or five innings, tops. He is a dumpster fire. The Braves are countering with young Tyrell Jenkins. He has an ERA of nearly 5.00 so far this season and has more walks (20) than strikeouts (15). These are two pitchers that shouldn't be in the Majors right now. The 'over' is 4-1 the last five times these two have played in Atlanta, and the 'over' is 10-1 in Atlanta's last 11 games after a win (check Wednesday's results). I see plenty of offense and I see this one playing 'over'.

Vernon Croy

Toronto vs Houston
Play: Toronto

I really like this pitching matchup here Thursday night. J.A. Happ has pitched lights-out with an ERA of just 1.44 over five starts last month, with opponents hitting just .182 against him, and he has showed no signs of slowing down. Happ allowed just 3 hits, 1 earned run, over 7 innings of work in his last outing against a potent Orioles team while striking out 11 and walking 3. Mike Fiers has an ERA of 4.61 in night games this season, with opponents hitting .279 against him, and he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts overall. You can expect the Jays to give Happ plenty of run support, although he shouldn't need much with the way he has been pitching this past month.

Scott Rickenbach

Royals at Rays
Pick: Under

The Royals Ian Kennedy is off of a 7-inning 1-run effort at Texas where he struck out 6 and walked none. That game easily stayed under the total and only 6 of his 21 starts this season have resulted in an over. Facing light-hitting Tampa Bay, another under is in store for Thursday. The Rays will have Drew Smyly on the mound and the southpaw is back in strong current form with a 2.25 ERA in his last two starts. His home stats reflect a poor record and a relatively high ERA but he has a stellar 1.08 WHIP in his starts at Tropicana Field this season. The Royals have been held to 3 runs or less in 10 of their last 11 starts. The Rays, before a RARE explosion on offense yesterday, had been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of their 10 prior games. 19 of the Royals 29 days games have stayed under the total this season. The Rays are 35-19 to the under in home games this season.

Chase Diamond

Giants at Phillies
Play: Giants

Early morning game between the 61-46 Giants and the 50-59 Phillies. Phillies got lucky as they pulled out a win last night and even with their best pitcher Vince Velasquez on the mound I really like th Giants here today. Velasquez is reaching his inning limit and that might effect how far he goes today and the Phillies bullpen is a little worked after last nights game. Matt Moore has his first start with the Giants today so he will want to prove himself. I love getting one of the best lineups in Baseball at such a great price. Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 and will want to finish this series off with a win.

Scott Spreitzer

Los Angeles at Colorado
Play: Los Angeles -133

The Los Angeles Dodgers will try to salvage the third game of their series at Colorado with Kenta Maeda, who is 9-7 with a 3.23 ERA on the mound against Tyler Chatwood. Maeda has allowed four runs with no walks his last two starts in 12 innings. Maeda has given up just one run in 13 innings against the Rockies this season, including six shutout innings at Coors Field. Also, the Rockies have a .174 batting average against him. Tyler Chatwood has a 1.30 ERA on the road and 5.69 at home and he also is a better pitcher in day games (6-1, 2.56 ERA) than at night (4-5, 4.34). In one home appearance against the Dodgers this year, Chatwood gave up three runs and six hits in four innings. The Dodgers have won five of Maeda's last seven road starts. Colorado suffered a devastating loss when rookie shortstop sensation Trevor Story went down with a thumb injury.

Buster Sports

Rangers at Orioles
Play: Over 9.5

With the Orioles 11-0 to the UNDER following a win, why would we take this OVER? It is all about situations and our Buster Sports systems has this game at 10 1/2 and at 9 1/2 its great situational OVER for us. The Orioles send LH Wade Miley (7-8, 4.98) to the mound and he has had trouble against the Rangers in his career. He has faced them 3 times this year already and has given up 14 runs in 17 innings. Also pitching at night is one of Miley's worse splits throughout his career. This season he has a 5.31 ERA with a WHIP of 1.45 in 11 starts at night. Rangers send RH A.J. Griffin (4-1, 3.99 ERA) to the hill and he hasn't faced the Orioles since 2013. In his last 7 starts he has a 5.03 ERA with a WHIP of 1.38. We see one of those good old Oriole Park at Camden Yards slugfest tonight.