Brandon Lee
Rays -135
Tampa Bay is worth a look here at home against the slumping Royals. Kansas City is coming to terms with the fact that they aren't going to be in the postseason and it's showing in their play. The Royals are just 3-9 in their last 12 games. A big reason they aren't in the playoff hunt right now, is their struggles on the road. After yesterday's loss KC is now just 19-37 away from home on the season. The Rays also aren't in the playoff hunt, but that's been the case for quite some time. They are playing well at the moment, having won 5 of their last 7 and I like their chances here. Royals will send out Ian Kennedy, who has a 4.52 ERA in 13 road starts and an ugly 6.61 ERA in his last 3 outings. Tampa Bay will counter with Drew Smyly. He's been a major disappointment, but is coming off back-to-back strong starts, giving up just 3 runs on 10 hits in 12 innings of work. Royals are 3-18 as a road dog of +125 to +175 this season and 3-20 in their last 23 after a game where they had 2 or less hits.
Jimmy Boyd
White Sox / Tigers Under 8½
I really like the value we are getting here on the total in Thursday's series finale between the Tigers and White Sox. Both offenses were shutdown in yesterday's contest by two of the best starters in the AL and we have two more really good starters taking the mound in this one.
Chicago will send out Jose Quintana, who despite an 8-8 record has a dominant 2.89 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 21 starts. He's also been lights out of late, posting a 0.93 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Detroit will counter with Jordan Zimmermann, who will be returning to the rotation for the first time since late June. Zimmermann is an experienced starter and I don't see enough rust here to not keep the White Sox offense in check. Plus, he's owned Chicago in his career, going 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 4 career starts against them.
UNDER is 10-1 in Quintana's last 11 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs, 9-0 in his last 9 starts against division opponents and 9-1 in his last 10 during a day game.
Power Sports
Boston vs. Seattle
Pick: Under
I've hit the Under in two of the three games in this series so far (didn't play the second game, which went Over) as premium releases. Here, I offer a slight recommendation on the Under again. Boston has seen seven of its last eight games stay Under the total. Tonight's starter Drew Pomeranz, dating to back to his time w/ San Diego, is 14-6 Under in all starts this year.
I'll go back to yday's analysis as to how this series has unfolded thus far. Monday's game saw a scant three runs scored and took just 2 hrs, 42 minutes to complete. It was scoreless until the home half of the seventh inning. Incredibly, that game saw the two starters face only 42 hitters (minimum is 39!) in the first 6.5 innings! That included ten 1-2-3 innings out of a possible 13! Neither team even managed a hit until there were two outs in the bottom of the fourth. Tuesday saw a similar story unfold, at least from Seattle's perspective as they didn't send up more than four hitters to plate in any of the first seven innings. Last night's 3-1 final saw the Mariners finish with only four hits and the Red Sox didn't score their lone run until the ninth inning. Combined, there have been just seven walks drawn in this series.
Seattle goes w/ a relative unknown on the bump tonight, that being Ariel Miranda, who came over from Baltimore in the Wade Miley deal. I think that the "unknown factor" will be the Mariners benefit here as Boston's own struggles at the plate continue.
Jesse Schule
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Pick: Rockies
The Rockies are the hottest team in the major leagues, coming into Thursday night’s home game versus LA as winners of 11 of their last 13. They crushed the Dodgers 12-2 last night, and I'll take the hot team as a home dog here.
Kenta Maeda will toe the slab for the visitors, and this looks like a tough spot for the right-hander. Maeda (9-7, 3.23 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on four hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 9-7 home win over the D'Backs his last time out. He hasn't looked great in recent starts on the road, allowing seven runs on a dozen hits over 10 innings while going 1-1 in his last two road outings.
The Rockies hand the ball to Tyler Chatwood, who tossed a gem in a win over the Mets in his last start. Chatwood (10-6, 3.50 ERA) allowed just one run on three hits over seven innings in a 6-1 win at New York. He's pitched well in previous meetings with LA, and the Dodgers are hitting just .237 in 93 at bats in those games. His last start against LA was an eight inning, one-hit masterpiece.
Nolan Arenado was 2-for-3 with a home run and three RBIs last night, and he's leading the NL in both home runs and RBIs.
Larry Ness
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays won 3-1 Wednesday night and Toronto enters the series finale at Houston with a chance to take three of the four games. The Blue Jays find themselves one game behind first-place Baltimore Orioles in the AL East and possesses the first wild card spot, while the Astros have dropped FIVE of their last six contests and are now 5 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West, as well three games behind Detroit for the second wild-card spot (Boston is in between the two teams). Tonight’s pitching matchup will feature J.A. Happ (14-3, 3.16 ERA) up against Mike Fiers (7-4, 4.42 ERA).
Happ’s best previous MLB season came way back in 2009, when in 35 appearances (including 23 tarts), he finished 12-4 for the Phillies. Happ is fashioning a career year in 2016, going 14-3 (3.16 ERA) in 21 starts, with the Blue Jays going 16-5 in those starts, giving him the 6th-best moneyline mark among starters, at plus-$979. Fiers has just seven wins in his 19 starts (note: only four losses), after receiving a no-decision in his last outing, despite allowing just one unearned run on four hits in 6.1 innings against Detroit. He has won four of his last five decisions and has given up two or fewer ERs in five of his last eight outings (Houston is 6-2 in that stretch). Fiers is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against Toronto.
I don’t have much bad to say regarding Fiers but Happ takes the mound looking to win his NINTH consecutive decision tonight. He has posted a 2.60 ERA during a nine-start unbeaten streak in which he has allowed two or fewer ERs in six of the outings. Happ is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA in six career starts against the Astros (teams are a more modest 3-3) but I have ZERO interest in stepping in front of the current Happ ‘train!’
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Under in the Red Sox-Mariners series finale.
2 of the 3 games played this week have held Under the total, as 4 of the last 5 now played between the teams this season have landed Under the posted price.
Boston now stands at 8-2 Under their last 10 games played, while Seattle has played Under the total in 5 of their last 8 games at Safeco Field.
Drew Pomeranz makes his 4th start in a Boston uniform, while Ariel Miranda will make his major league debut.
On paper this looks like the hitters should have their way with the pitching, but they don't play them on paper, and I am looking for the Under trend that Boston is on to continue before the BoSox head down the coast to L.A. for the weekend and a series with the Dodgers.
Red Sox-Mariners Under the total.
2* BOSTON-SEATTLE UNDER
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Thursday is the Over in the Mets-Yankees series finale.
All 3 games played in this series this year have landed Over the posted price, and tonight will be no different.
Both the Mets and the Yankees have now played Over the total in their last 5 games, and 6 of their last 8 games overall.
Bartolo Colon sports an over 6 ERA for his last 3 trips to the hill, while Nathan Eovaldi's season ERA is very close to 5.
Subway Series numbers show each of the past 4, and 6 of the last 8 between the teams landing Over the total.
This one does too.
5* N.Y. METS-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
RICKY TRAN
Blue Jays vs. Astros
Play: Blue Jays -115
J.A. Happ takes the mound for the Blue Jays and has won 8 straight decisions allowing 2 runs or less in 6 of them and in 3 of the last 4, 1 run or less. He is 5-2 on the road with a 3.31 ERA while in his last 2 games pitched 13 innings and gave up just 1 run and 4 hits. He has given up just 3 HR's in his last 8 games and has 22 K's and 8 walks in his last 3 games. Mike Fiers takes the mound for Houston with a 7-4 record and a 4.42 ERA. He has not been as consistent as Happ, and Houston has been struggling, losing seven of their last nine. They've only scored four runs in their last four games.
Wundeerdog
Chicago vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit -116
Chicago looks out of gas, ending an eight-game road trip here by losing three in a row by a 19-10 count. The White Sox have dropped six of seven and are 59-124 away against a team with a winning record. The offense is terrible at #25 in runs scored, #21 in on-base percentage and #26 in slugging. Chicago lefty Jose Quintana has already lost to the Tigers this season and has a losing record against them the last four years with Detroit hitting .298 off him in those 70 innings. The White Sox are also 5-22 on the road against a right-handed starter and face Detroit righty Jordan Zimmermann (9-4, 3.95 ERA). He allowed just one run in a pair of rehab starts with Triple-A Toledo and is ready to return to the rotation. This Detroit offense is outstanding, seventh in runs scored, ninth in on-base percentage and fifth in slugging. The Tigers are on a 19-7 run at home, including 9-2 against a southpaw. And the White Sox are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings, including 15-40 at Detroit.
Zack Cimini
Rangers at Orioles
Play: Rangers
On the mound for the Orioles Thursday will be newly acquired pitcher Wade Miley from the Mariners. He's delivered an above average year considering his past experiences with the Red Sox and Diamondbacks. Will his fortune continue as an Oriole? Thursday I don't believe so. Texas made some key moves of their own that did not work out to plan in Wednesday's loss, but I believe they'll get back on track here. Baltimore's offense has been nothing to write home about, and I don't think Miley will be as sharp as the one-hit outing he had last start.
JACK JONES
Houston Astros +107
The Houston Astros will be highly motivated for a victory at home here tonight to split this 4-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays. They have lost the past two days and are now showing great value as home underdogs.
After all, Mike Fiers has been at his best at home this season, going 6-2 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 11 starts. Fiers is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.429 WHIP in one career start against Toronto, giving up one earned run and three base runners in 7 innings of a 6-1 victory.
J.A. Happ is having a fine season for the Blue Jays, but he's being overvalued here. Plus, Happ is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in his last two starts against the Astros. He has allowed 8 earned runs and 19 base runners in 11 innings over those two starts.
Houston is 15-5 (+11.7 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons. The Astros are 23-10 in their last 33 home games. Houston is 5-0 in Fiers' last five home starts.
DAVE PRICE
Colorado Rockies +139
The Colorado Rockies are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have gone 11-2 in their last 13 games overall to climb over .500 for the first time since May 19. They have poured on 19 runs on the Dodgers in the first two games of this series, and I expect their bats to stay hot here tonight as they go for the sweep. Tyler Chatwood has been solid all season, going 10-6 with a 3.50 ERA in 19 starts. Kenta Maeda has struggled here of late for the Dodgers with a 4.96 ERA in his last 3 starts. Chatwood is 4-5 with a 3.29 ERA in 9 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. He's being way undervalued by oddsmakers in this game. The Rockies are 6-0 in their last 6 home games. The Rockies are 6-1 in Chatwood's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO -1½ +140 over Houston
J.A. Happ is one of those rare pitchers that have had a career of mediocrity before finding something else in their 30’s. Truth is, Happ posted the best skills in July of any starter in the AL with at least 20 innings pitched with 12.1 K’s/9, 2.6 BB’s/9 and a huge performance value score. Also note that his 12.9% swing and miss rate gives full support to his double-digit strikeout rate. Happ generates a very high rate of swings-and-misses on his four-seam fastball. If Happ can continue to use that pitch to keep hitters off balance (and we see no reason why he cannot) he could easily keep it going. Perhaps overlooked in all of this is Ricky Martin’s brilliance in calling a game. The Astros hitters have looked rather foolish this entire series and Martin is part of the reason. In any event, the Astronauts strike out more than any team in baseball and have now scored two runs or less in five straight games.
Meanwhile, Mike Fiers is the worst of the Astros starters. Fiers put up a nifty sub-3 ERA in June but it came with no skills support. In fact, his skills have slid in each month and they were awful in July. Overall, Fiers has a mere 77 K’s in 126 innings. His best asset is his control (just 26 BB) but that plays right into the hands of the Blue Jays. Pitchers' with low strikeout rates usually get ruined by Toronto’s aggressive bats. Fiers has a 15% hr/f rate, a shaky as hell 1.48 WHIP over his last seven starts and an xERA of 4.91. Ultimately, both his base performance and xERA indicate that Fiers is well below average and with a sub-90 mph fastball that hitters are feasting on, there's very little upside
SPORTS WAGERS
Saskatchewan +10½ over CALGARY
Do you really want to spot double-digits in a CFL game? What we have learned in the first five weeks of the season is that more than ever, the CFL is a week-to-week league and so spotting double digits is a dangerous game to play. Furthermore, the Stampeders are coming into this one after a hugely emotional OT win last week against B.C. in what was at the time a showdown for first place. The Stamps rallied with 22 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Lions 44-41 and we all saw what Hamilton did last night after a big second half rally against Edmonton. Calgary is 3-1-1 with their other two wins occurring against the Bombers, pre Matt Nichols. The Stamps have only seen one other team this season that isn't B.C. or Winnipeg and that was their tie with Ottawa in a game the Redblacks had many chances to finish. Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell has the reputation and pedigree but allow us to point out that he's been out-gained by the opposing QB in all five contests this season. That's not positive when you've faced Drew Willy twice.
A few years ago, this was the most heated rivalry in the CFL but recent Rider woes have doused that flame. While it only has a 1-4 record, Saskatchewan has a real chance to make up some ground quickly in this home and home series with the Stampeders. The Roughies will feel right at home in Calgary as their many transplanted fans take over McMahon Stadium. After finally getting their first win of the season against Ottawa in Week 5, the Riders laid an egg in a huge letdown spot at Montreal last week. We'll let that game slide, as Saskatchewan may have overlooked the Als and their #1 ranked defense with this big two-game division set on deck. The Riders were also without their starting QB in Darian Durant, who will make his return this week. That’s a huge difference that not only gives the offense a boost, but it instills confidence throughout. Saskatchewan has also played a much tougher and diverse schedule than the Stampeders with games against the Eskimos, Argos, Lions, Redblacks and Alouettes. So, what we have here is Calgary coming off a huge and impressive win over B.C. By contrast, Saskatchewan was getting smoked by Montreal. The result of those two results from last week now creates an overreaction here. Teams’ coming off a humiliating loss often respond with a big effort the following week and that’s precisely what we expect from the Riders this week.
NOTE: We are passing on the B.C./Montreal game.
Dwayne Bryant
Oakland at Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -138
Oakland has lost five straight on their current road trip, with this being the final game on the trip before heading home for a long home stand. Ricky Nolasco makes his first start for the Angels since coming over from Minnesota, while Jesse Hahn makes his first-ever start at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Not sure who wins that battle, but I do see the Angels as having a decided edge offensively.
If you don't think Oakland can get swept here, consider this: Since 08/17/14, the Athletics are just 4-17 (2-10 as a dog) in the last game of a three-game series when they lost the first two games.
The Angels are 10-2 in their last 12 home games, and 7-1 in their last eight against teams with a losing record. With Oakland in the midst of a losing streak, let's ride the team in better current form.