SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +122 over PITTSBURGH
Regular readers of this section know we’ve been backing Jameson Taillon all season long because he’s been so undervalued all season long. This kid can pitch but now that the market has taken notice, it’s time to switch gears. Taillon is still good but his second half may not be as good as his first half because his durability will now be tested. Since 2011, Taillon has thrown over 125 innings in a season just twice. The most innings he’s pitched in a full season is 147 and he’s already up to 82 innings this year (68 MLB, 14 minors). In his last game against the Cardinals, Taillon was tagged for eight hits and four runs in five frames. Over his past nine starts, Taillon has lasted past 5.1 innings just twice. Even if he throws a beauty, it’s unlikely he’ll pitch past the sixth inning and we’ll take our chances should that come to pass. There’s also a chance he surrenders something and doesn’t pitch great.
Jimmy Nelson has 11 pure quality starts in 18 tries and that’s one of the best ratios in the game. In 116 innings, Nelson has some outstanding numbers working. He has 127 K’s against just 29 walks. His groundball rate of 53% is elite and so is his line-drive rate of 17%. Over his last five starts, Nelson’s swing and miss rate is 15%. Jimmy Nelson has been consistently elite all season long. Right-handed batters have had no shot against him most of the year and the Pirates lineup consists mostly of righties. Josh Bell and Max Moroff are switch-hitters but Bell is hitting .221 against righties and Moroff, last night’s walk-off hero, is batting .114 against righties. Jimmy Nelson comes in with a 3.06 ERA and a 3.45 xERA.
An angle we have been watching and occasionally playing is betting against teams coming off a walk-off victory. In the bottom of the ninth last night, the Pirates scored twice to win it 3-2. When Josh Harrison crossed home plate, the celebrations began. It was like they had won a playoff series. It now makes this one a letdown spot after a big win, especially with this being a day game after the team celebrated well into the night. We get Milwaukee’s best pitcher with elite numbers at a great price too.
BALTIMORE -104 over Texas
We’re not even going to discuss Wade Miley here because it matters not. Yesterday we discussed the plight of the Rangers and how bad they are, thus this is strictly a fade against a team that is seeing BB’s at the plate and that has scored a deplorable four runs in the first three games of this series. The Rangers lost 10-2 last night and 12-1 on Tuesday. On Monday, they scored one run on Chris Tillman. Over its last five games, all losses, Texas has scored eight runs. The Orioles scored seven runs in one inning last night and have scored eight runs or more in four of their last seven games.
This game is evenly priced because Cole Hamels is a big name pitcher that has credentials and pedigree. Hamels also has a 3.05 ERA after nine starts this year but we’re not buying it for a second. You see, Hamels comes in with a 4.89 xERA. He has a lousy 33 K’s in 59 innings and he’s not getting guys to swing at pitches outside the zone the way he used to (26% this year compared to 35% in 2016). An unsustainable low 22% hit rate and high 79% strand rate is the reason for his shiny ERA. The Orioles have incinerated the Rangers in this series and we don’t see any signs of that changing here.
N.Y. Yankees -1½ +130 over SEATTLE
Luis Severino is the straight goods. In fact, over the past calendar year, his skills have been some of the best in the game with 10.3 K’s/9, 1.9 BB’s/9 51% grounders, 11.7% swing and miss rate, 64% first-pitch strikes and 34% ball%. Over his last 32 frames covering five starts, Severino has a BB/K split of 7/40. His 3.10 ERA is also one of best in the business. 80% of Severino’s 18 starts this year have come at extreme hitter’s parks and he’ll now have the benefit of pitching at this pitcher-friendly venue and chances are he’ll thrive again.
Felix Hernandez missed a couple of months of the season with a shoulder injury. When he’s taken his turn on the mound, he’s not been his usual self. It’s not a recent trend, either, as his velocity and stats have been fading for three years. In 10 starts covering just 52 innings, Hernandez has been tagged for 12 jacks. Fernandez used to post lofty groundball rates but that is in the distant past, as his batted ball profile of grounders, line-drives and fly-balls is more evenly distributed (43% grounders, 24% line-drives and 33% fly-balls). That’s not a strong batted ball profile. Hernandez’s swing and miss rate continues to fade while his K-rate is league average. Lastly, his performances against lefties continue to deteriorate as well. The Yanks are not playing well at the moment but we’re not ignoring the skills decline in Hernandez’s profile like the market is doing. Fernandez is giving up too many jacks and he’ll now be facing a home-run hitting team.
Brandon Lee
Tigers vs. Royals
Play: Under 9
It's going to be hot in KC tonight and that is definitely playing into this high total. I just think we have an ideal pitching matchup here and it's worth the gamble to bet on these two failing to reach double-digits tonight. The Royals send out their ace Danny Duffy, who is coming off a sensational start at home against Texas last time out, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits with 0 walks in 8 1/3 (near complete game) innings. He's now got a 2.41 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 6 home starts. Detroit will send out Michael Fulmer, who is enjoying quite a start to his big league career. After winning the AL Rookie of the Year last season, Fulmer has responded by going 10-6 with a 3.06 (5th-AL) ERA and 1.067 WHIP (3rd-AL) in 18 starts. He too is off a brilliant outing, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits in 8 innings. It was 3rd time in his last 4 starts he's completed at least 8 and one of those was a near complete game shutout against these Royals back on 6/29.
Mike Lundin
Tigers vs. Royals
Play: Tigers -111
Good spot to back the Detroit Tigers. They had won four on the bounce prior to Wednesday's 4-3 loss here at Kauffman Stadium.
Tonight they hand the ball to Michael Fulmer (10-6, 3.06 ERA) who is perfect 4-0 with a 3.06 ERA through his last four outings. Fulmer is 2-2 with a solid 2.29 ERA in five career starts against the Royals who turn to left-hander Danny Duffy (5-6, 3.51 ERA). Duffy is 4-1 against the Tigers since the start of the 2015 season despite a 4.28 ERA. The Tigers are 5-1 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Tigers are 12-5 in Fulmer's last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 4-1 in their last five games following a loss. Let's go with the Tigers.
Jimmy Boyd
Rangers vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -110
Most are going to flock to the Rangers with the red-hot Cole Hamels starting. Hamels has an eye-popping 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. An impressive stretch, but it's come against some pretty average offensive teams in the Royals, Angels and White Sox. Baltimore's offense hasn't lived up to their potential this season, but they come in on fire, averaging 6.7 runs/game in their last 7. Baltmiore has now won 3 straight and has a chance to sweep Texas after getting swept by the Cubs at home in a 3-game set to open up the 2nd half.
The heat index in Baltimore for this one will be pushing 100-degrees. That's far from ideal pitching conditions and should favor the long ball, which is one of the Orioles strengths. I know Wade Miley leaves a lot to be desired when you look at his numbers, but for what it's worth he has pitched better at home. Big key here is the Orioles have a great bullpen and the Rangers offense is in a major funk Texas has scored a whopping 8 runs in their last 5 games. You also have to keep in mind that the Orioles are a very strong 28-19 at home this season.
Jack Brayman
My free play for Thursday is on the Pittsburgh Pirates, over the Milwaukee Brewers, and just like yesterday with this same play, I won't list pitchers here.
Though the Bucs are in third place, and the Brewers lead the National League Central division, the momentum favors Pittsburgh.
Milwaukee has lost four in a row, and appear to be headed toward an epic collapse at this point. Though the Brewers have had a decent month offensively, they're looking a bit weak in this series, going 4-for-20 with runners in scoring position in the first three games versus Pittsburgh.
With seven wins in their past eight, Pittsburgh is now just four games back of the Brewers in the division. The Pirates are now 26-23 at home, and going back further, they've actually won nine of 11.
Take Pittsburgh as the free winner in an early game.
2* PITTSBURGH
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Thursday night is on the Los Angeles Dodgers, on the run line, as they're going to absolutely destroy the Atlanta Braves in this series lid-lifter.
The Dodgers come into this series riding an 11-game winning streak, after taking a 9-1 win on the South Side of Chicago. Normally I'd be glad to bet the best team in baseball in this situation, as a premium play, but I'm going to be wary in the event the Dodgers are tired from traveling.
The thing at our advantage is Atlanta has also been traveling, and is mired in a three-game skid after losing to the streaking Chicago Cubs, 8-2, at home on Wednesday night. So the Braves, realistically, are traveling to Los Angeles a bit further than the Dodgers had to yesterday.
It really doesn't matter, the value on the run line is worth it, especially since it's only a free play. You want real value, play my big premium release and make some real money.
All Dodgers here.
1* DODGERS -1.5
Chris Jordan
While my premium play goes early, my free play is at the other end of the schedule, and I'm playing the San Francisco Giants on the Run Line, over the San Diego Padres, who are mired in a three-game skid after getting rocked by the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday.
The Friars have to travel from Denver, to San Francisco, and then play in a late game against a Giants team that has won two straight and would love to - at the very least - climb out of the cellar. The Giants have four games with San Diego, and with a sweep, they can pull into a fourth-place tie with the Padres.
San Diego is 16-31 on the road this season, it has the worst batting average in the league, at .232, and is batting just .229 with a suitcase in hand - the second-worst road batting average in the bigs.
Take the Giants on the Run Line tonight, as they roll past the Padres.
3* GIANTS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Thursday's freebie is the Under in the Tigers-Royals series finale.
After 4 straight Overs in this series, last night we saw a 4-3 final that stayed Under the total.
More of the same tonight with Michael Fulmer and Danny Duffy on the mound.
Fulmer has been very solid on the mound over his last 6 starts, as he has not allowed more than 3 runs to score in any of those starts, and has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5.
The Under is 3-1-1 the last 5 times Fulmer has taken the mound.
Duffy's last start saw him work into the 9th with just 1 run allowed in a game that stayed Under the total.
The Under is 6-3 his last 9 starts, and his 2.41 home ERA has produced 6 Unders in as many home starts.
The runs will be hard to come by tonight, take Detroit-Kansas City to hold Under.
3* DETROIT-KANSAS CITY UNDER
Brad Wilton
Looking for Luis Severino to stay locked-in, as he hooks up against Felix Hernandez this Thursday night in an Under between the Yankees and the Mariners.
Severino's last pair of starts have seen him work 14 innings with 4 runs allowed, and also a massive 16 strikeouts recorded. Both games have played Low, and 3 of his last 4 starts overall have also stayed low.
Hernandez' last pair of starts look similar, with 11 innings pitched, and just 1 earned run - 3 runs total - allowed, as King Felix has fanned 13 batters in that stretch. Both of those starts have held Under the total too.
The Under is 8-1-1 the last 10 series meetings, and also stand at 14-4 the last 18 series meetings at Safeco Field.
Both teams enter on a bit of an Under run, as New York has posted Unders in their last 6 games, and are 8-1 Under the posted price in their last 9 games, while Seattle stands at 6-2 Under in their last 8 contested.
Pitchers rule the series opener tonight.
Yanks-M's Under.
4* N.Y. YANKEES-SEATTLE UNDER
Buster Sports
Atlanta at Los Angeles
Play: Atlanta +200
We have a real live dog in the Atlanta Braves tonight when they go to LA to play the Dodgers. The starting pitchers are for the Braves RH Mike Foltynewicz (7-5, 3.84 ERA) and he will face the Dodgers RH Brandon McCarthy (6-3, 3.38 ERA) Foltynewicz has pitched real well for the Braves this year and in his last 3 starts he is sporting a solid 2.79 ERA. Foltynewicz will be facing the Dodgers for the first time in his career and we believe the way he has been pitching this will be an advantage against the red hot Dodgers. As for McCarthy he has really struggled of late. In his last 3 starts he is sporting a 5.93 ERA with a WHIP of 1.683. We never like to step in front of a winning streak like the one the Dodgers have been on, but the situation is here tonight. The Dodgers are coming off a 5 game road trip after the All-Star break, so many of these guys will be coming home for the first time in over a week. We are getting HUGE plus money to take a flyer on a team that although lost 3 games to the Cubs had won 5 out of their last 7 before that.
Doc's Sports
Padres vs. Giants
Play: Under 7
I will go with the ‘under’ in this game and I think that Madison Bumgarner is going to be strong in his first home start since April. Bumgarner is one of the best starters in baseball. He gave up two home runs and three runs in seven innings against the Padres on July 15. I think he will be even better in this start. Going back to last year’s playoffs Bumgarner has five straight quality starts and quality starts in eight of his last 10 starts. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams in San Fran. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in San Diego’s last 10 games overall and the ‘under’ is 4-1 in San Francisco’s last five divisional games. I see another low-scoring game and a win for Bumgarner here.
Dave Essler
St. Louis at New York
Play: New York
New York and DeGrom are in the midst of humiliating Mike Leake and the Cardinals, and as I said a few days ago, New York may be a play-on team for the neat future. They're not that far out of the Wild Card race, as hard as they've tried to be. And as I said about the Cardinals, everyone is expecting them to just "turn it on," which we know teams can't just flip a switch. In my opinion, if they could have they would have. Lugo is of a decent outing against the Rockies, where he threw a ton of ground ball outs, so perhaps he's on the uptick this week. Lynn is off of two straight shutout appearances, one against the lighter hitting Pirates, the other in St. Louis against these very Mets, so I expect the Mets, at home, to be in the right spot at the right time, not to mention the fact that I just love home teams in getaway games during the week.
Vic Duke
Rangers vs. Orioles
Play: Rangers +102
Texas/Baltimore 7:05: Baltimore is getting healthier and as a result their play is picking up substantially. They'll have a chance to sweep this series but may run into a problem here against Cole Hamels. The southpaw has not allowed an earned run over his last 21 innings of work. I do realize he's been rocked at Cameden Yards (0-2 w/ 7 .50 ERA) but I'll override that on account of him in top form. And the Orioles are a poor 3-8 in their last 11 against lefty starters. Hamels is 25-4 when facing a team below .500. And on the other hand, Wade Miley is going in the opposite direction with a lofty 10.19 ERA over his last 8 outings. And he's 1-5 with a 5.75 ERA against Texas.
Jack Jones
Braves vs. Dodgers
Play: Braves +195
I'm willing to take a shot with the Atlanta Braves as basically a 2-to-1 underdog to the Los Angeles Dodgers today. The Dodgers are getting to the point where you can't bet them because they are overvalued after winning 31 of their last 35 games overall.
This is a much more evenly-matched game on the mound than this line would indicate. Mike Foltynewicz has held his own this season, going 7-5 with a 3.74 ERA in 17 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA in his last three. He has allowed more than three runs only once in his last eight starts.
Brandon McCarthy is 6-3 with a 3.37 ERA in 15 starts this season. But McCarthy has faltered of late, going 0-0 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.683 WHIP in his last three starts. He just recently returned from the disabled list but doesn't look quite right.
Foltynewicz is a very profitable 8-3 (+11.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 or more over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 19-23 (+16.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last two seasons.
Dave Price
Yankees vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners +120
The Seattle Mariners have been a very streaky team this season. They have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games overall to get to .500 on the season and back in contention for a playoff spot. Now they are home dogs against one of the coldest teams in baseball in the New York Yankees, who are just 10-22 in their last 32 games overall. The Yankees are 1-9 in Luis Severino's last 10 starts during game 1 of a series. Felix Hernandez is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in his last two starts, yielding just 1 earned run in 11 innings. The Mariners are 10-4 in Hernandez's last 14 home starts.