Brad Wilton
Thursday's comp play is the Under in the Braves and Rockies.
Just too many runs with the pitchers that are on the hill.
Atlanta's Mike Foltyniewicz is showing signs that he can be part of this Atlanta rotation moving forward, as each of his last 3 starts have all stayed Under the total and he has kept his ERA at 3.66.
For the season, Foltyniewicz has made 10 starts, and the Under is 2-6-2.
His counterpart Chad Bettis has seen 2 of his last 3 starts hold Under the total, and the Rockies are 3-1-1 Under in their last 5 games.
Atlanta is 12-4-1 Under in their last 17 roadies, so look for tonight's posted price to be a little too lofty to head Over.
Braves-Rockies Under the total.
1* ATLANTA-COLORADO UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Yankees to finish off the ailing Orioles and make it a clean 4 game sweep of their division rivals.
Baltimore has some players that have been battled a stomach virus, and they just cannot get anything going on offense, as they have plated onlty 10 runs total in their 5 games since the All-Star break.
New York is looking for their first 4 game sweep of Baltimore in the Bronx since 2005, and they must do so against Chris Tillman and his 13-2 mark. Tillman is just 4-6 for his career against the Yankees with a 4.87 ERA, so chances the Yankees stay hot appear good to me.
CC Sabathia looks to have hit a wall, as the big southpaw has struggled since June, but when you have momentum in your corner the way the Yankees do, you need to give it a ride.
Yankees make it 4-for-4 against the Orioles.
2* N.Y. YANKEES
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 86-73 run with free picks: Detroit at CHICAGO (-140). List both James Shields and Mike Pelfrey.
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free play takes us to the American League Central, where I'm siding with the home team Chicago White Sox, in a battle with the Detroit Tigers. The South Siders return home after a tough series in Seattle, and they're looking to shake the funk off a 3-7 slide. The Tigers arrive after losing a home series to Minnesota, as they've lost two in a row now.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The key in this one is the pitching mismatch I see, with James Shields taking on Mike Pelfrey, who lost to the White Sox in Chicago last month with four runs allowed over six innings. I'm not convinced the right-hander will be able to keep this one in the park today. Shields, however, has allowed just three runs in his last two starts, spanning 15-2/3 innings.
BOTTOM LINE is - This is another one of those quirky division rivalries, where the team lower in the standings ends up being favored for good reason, and sends the higher-placed team spiraling. We've seen that a lot this season, in this division. Outside the Cleveland Indians, the teams have moved around quite a bit. Don't be surprised the teams jockeying for position this weekend.
2* CHICAGO
BRANDON LEE
Red Sox -1.5
Boston exploded for 11 runs on 16 hits, including 5 home runs in yesterday's 11-7 win over the Giants. The Red Sox took 2 of 3 from San Francisco and have won 10 of their last 13 overall. I look for Boston to stay hot at the plate and I like the value here on the run line against the Twins. The Red Sox will send out Steven Wright, who did hit a slump after a great start to the season, but pitched well in his first start back from the break and is still 11-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 18 starts. I'll take my chances that Wright throws well enough for the Red Sox to win by 2 or more runs, as Minnesota counters with Tyler Duffey and his 5.23 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 15 starts. Duffey made his only career start against Boston back in June and he was torched for 6 runs on 10 hits in just 5 1/3 innings of a 1-8 loss. The opposing pitcher in that game was Wright.
SPORTS WAGERS
WINNIPEG +5½ over Calgary
If controversy creates cash then look for Drew Willy and the Bombers to be on the money this week. We cannot ignore those calling for Willy's head as the story is gaining some steam nationally. That's fine with us, as it drives the line up on the already unappealing Blue Bombers. Willy actually hasn't been that bad this season. He’s second in league passing with 1239 yards while throwing five touchdowns. The Bombers may look like easy pickings again this week but they made a strong showing last game at home versus the Eskimos. That contest closed Edmonton -4 and ended on a push with a 20-16 score but if you were and Eskie backer you were on the edge the entire game. We will not back off the Bombers because they provide us with too much value again this week while Willy figures to be incredibly motivated to quiet the catcalls begging for his ouster.
The Stampeders have a new head coach, a new receiving core and their O-line has yet to play a game as a complete unit this season so we're not shocked to hear the offense didn't have a good week of practice. Word out of McMahon is bench boss Dave Dickenson was furious that his team had trouble executing while noise was pumped on the field. The Stampeders could probably use another week off after the bye. The defense that quit in the fourth quarter of their 36-22 Week 2 win over these Bombers is banged up. Linebacker Taylor Reed and defensive end Frank Beltre will likely sit. The flu has also ripped through the Stamps dressing room this week. This game could easily be an afterthought for the Stamps, as they have a huge West Division showdown looming with the first place Lions next week. The bookmakers might agree, as they've priced the seemingly superior Stamps as just a -5-point road favorite to open against a team they pounded just three weeks ago. Calgary had a 36-7 lead going to the fourth quarter of that game. It was the late game so not many saw the fourth quarter in which Winnipeg scored 15 points in what could be called “garbage” time. Calgary also covered that game as a double-digit favorite, which does nothing to deter the market from jumping all over them again here. However, with wounds to lick and a huge game on the horizon, this trip to Winnipeg is nothing more than an inconvenience for the Stamps and we'll play it as such.
Note: We’re fairly confident that the Stamps are going to take quite a bit of late money and therefore we’ll wait until after dinner to pull the trigger here. We expect a better late line than early one so we’ll update this to an official play then and tweet it out when it is official.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -1½ +116 over Milwaukee
Francisco Liriano has struggled this season with a 5.11 ERA, but he has been far better at home, where he has a 3.67 ERA compared to 6.52 on the road. Milwaukee has hit poorly on the road with a .682 OPS that is tied for 13th in the NL. When Liriano is throwing strikes, he’s elite. He had an 82% groundball rate in his last start. He had a 16% swing and miss rate two starts ago. Overall, he has a 52% groundball rate and a puny 18% line-drive rate. Again, if he throws strikes, the Crew will be cooked here but this wager is all about fading Matt Garza.
Most GM’s never learn. With pressure to win, they end up signing stiffs to huge contracts to try and save their job but it usually ends up costing them their job. Case in point is Matt Garza. Long before the Brewers signed this stiff to a 13M per year contract, we were telling you that his skills were in serious decline. The ONLY reason that Garza will take the hill today is because the Brewers would rather lose than pay this also-ran 13 million to count heads on the bus. Garza has 19 K’s and 11 walks in 30 frames. His ERA/xERA over his last four starts is 8.02/6.76. He has a 5% swing and miss rate. Last year's book cited 3-year drops in Garza's key metrics as a harbinger of rough waters ahead. Make that four years and a tsunami, as he endured career worsts nearly across the board. This year is even worse and it doesn't look to get much better as age creeps and injuries pile up. Way too much downward thrust here. Sometimes, it's actually fun being right.
Tampa Bay +111 over OAKLAND
Everything the Rays do, they do better on the road. Tampa’s winning percentage on the road is slightly better than its winning % at home. They hit better on the road too by a country mile.Tampa’s .763 road OPS is tied for 3rd in the AL. Now they have won two straight but they are still 20 games under .500 and playing .394 ball. That’s a ridiculous number that is sure to correct itself to the good in the final 2½-months of the season. The worst teams in history have played right around that mark and we can assure you that Tampa is not one of the worst teams ever. They have pitching and they have offense.
Matt Moore comes in with a 4.33 ERA after 19 starts. However, his ERA/xERA of 2.49/3.22 over his last six starts indicate that Moore is headed in the right direction. Moore is throwing 93 MPH. His swing and miss rate is up to 11%. His biggest flaw is his high fly-ball rate but this park is one that should benefit his style. Aside from that, the A’s are beatable on their best day.
A strong 2015 combined with a pitcher’s haven for home field led to Sonny Gray having more high expectations in 2016. He’s been a disappointment with a DL stint and poor results when he’s been on the mound. Gray has a BB/K split of 38/74 in 96 innings. That’s a poor ratio. His swing and miss rate is down from 10% last year to 8% this year. MLB hitters make adjustments and that can be seen in Gray’s results too, as hitters aren’t swinging at pitches outside the strike zone as much as they did in the past (24% in 2016, 31% in 2015). Sonny Gray has struggled all season long. He’s had a few good starts but most of those were earlier in the year. Furthermore, he has especially struggled at home with a 5.37 ERA in 9 starts with a BB/K split of 20/42 over 53 frames. Don’t be surprised to see Moneyball trade him at the deadline. For now, we’ll just take back a tag
Atlanta +160 over COLORADO
Chad Bettis seemingly draws a juicy matchup against Atlanta, as the Braves have the worst road OPS in the NL at .655. The price here reflects that and it also reflects the Braves weak market value. Unfortunately for Bettis, this game is in Coors Field, where he has a 6.09/6.33 ERA/xERA split in eight starts. It’s not that Bettis is terrible but pitching at Coors all year wears one out slowly but surely. Bettis has a home WHIP of 1.58, which indicates the stress his arm has been under all year with all that traffic game in and game out. Bettis has excellent control but his pitches are often flat. He’s simply not a starter that warrants being this price.
Mike Foltynewicz entered each of the past two seasons as a top 100 prospect, but it hadn't translated to any success in the majors, where he posted a 5.64 ERA in 105.1 innings. He began this year down in Triple-A and later missed a month with an elbow issue, but his numbers are much-improved since his return.Foltynewicz surrendered too many walks in previous years, and it was a trend that continued in the minors this season. He's been very stingy with the free passes in the majors, though, with a high first-pitch strike rate that supports his improvement. Even when he's struggled in the past, he's generated his fair share of swings and misses and continues to excel in that area. A high fly-ball rate got him into trouble last year, but he's doing a much better job of keeping the ball on the ground this season. Unfortunately, he's been victimized by a very high home run per fly ball rate, but that number should drop.
Foltynewicz looked like a risky short-term investment heading into the season, and despite the shiny ERA in Triple-A, he did little to ease those doubts, given his shaky control. He's shown some encouraging signs in his nine big league starts this year, though, as he has significantly cut down on the walks (just 13 over 56 innings) and bumped up his groundball rate while maintaining his ability to generate whiffs. Foltynewicz has pedigree working in his favor. He has 96 MPH heat with life and 22 K’s over his last 23 innings. It often takes time for a young pitcher's command to click. The sample is small but he's showing signs of emerging as an upper echelon starter, which seemed like a long shot a couple months ago. We love longshots but this isn’t one of them anymore. We get the better pitcher at a great price here.
Power Sports
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies
Earlier this week (Monday), in this very space, I wrote how a Colorado opponent was so inept offensively that even a trip to hitter-friendly Coors Field was unlikely to aid them. And for that game, my assesment held true as the Rockies took the opener from the Rays, 7-4. But the next two games saw Tampa Bay outscore their hosts 21-4. I wasn't on either of those contests. Now as an even weaker offensive opponent rolls into Denver, I will suggest getting back on the Rockies, as I don't see the problems of the last two games persisting here.
Atlanta has scored only 323 runs this year, by far the fewest in all of baseball. They are also dead last in team batting average and slugging, while ranking 29th in OBP. So, this is indeed a very bad offense. Since the All Star Break, they've managed to score more than three runs in a game just once. That includes a series with the Rockies where they scored just six times in three games and their lone victory came by a score of 1-0. Simply put, the Braves are not built to win slugfests and that's the kind of games that unfold more often than not here at Coors.
Neither starting pitcher brings in a ton of credentials to tonight's game, but both Mike Foltynewicz and Chad Bettis are coming off B2B quality starts. They just faced each other in the last series and both allowed just three runs. Obviously, you have to give Bettis a little bit of an edge as he's more used to pitching at Coors. His numbers at home aren't great, but then again neither are Foltynewicz's on the road and he doesn't pitch here. The Rockies are 6-1 in Bettis' last seven starts.
John Fisher
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -106
If you take the one game away in Colorado SP Eickhoff has only given up 3+ runs on one occurrence 10 games. His Home stats are very good at .230BAA and 2.45 ERA . His counter SP Koehler has been less then spectacular. His ERA is 5.1 and BAA.294 away from home makes this line -137 so we get some value here with a -106 play.
Tony Finn
Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics -120
Rays
Moore is 3-3 with a 2.51 ERA over his last seven starts and has allowed two or fewer earned runs six times during the stretch. He dropped his last two outings despite giving up just four total earned runs as the Rays tallied just once in each game. Moore’s recent surface numbers are attractive but his swing and miss percentage is down and in his last start he struck out just one batter in the game. His FIP (5.00-plus) is larger than his high ERA and he is simply not missing enough bats. Moore is 0-1 with a 8.44 ERA in three career starts against Oakland.
Athletics
Gray is on the block with Oakland being sellers and he would like nothing more than to impress and find himself with a contender for the second half of 2016. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in overall offense against right-handed pitching while Oakland Coliseum rates as pitcher-friendly, 25th in overall league Park Factors. Gray has been the victim of an inflated HR/FB rate. The young righty went 0-7 during a recent skid and gave up seven runs three times. Look for the A’s strong arm to be at the top of his game today against a tired and pedestrian offense of the Rays.