Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, July 27th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

METS AT PADRES
PLAY: METS -101

Chris Flexen opened the season as the #22 rated Mets prospect, according to Baseball America. I think it’s fair to speculate Flexen has risen in those rankings thanks to a spectacular run at AA Binghamton. Flexen has recorded some eye-popping stats down on the farm. He’s 6-1 with a microscopic 1.66 ERA. Flexen has surrendered only 28 hits in his 48.2 innings and one has to be impressed with his 7/50 BB/K ratio. I might as well throw in that the burly right-hander hasn’t allowed a single homer. Regardless of the level, that’s some pretty impressive material.

The Padres will counter with Luis Perdomo, who was doing quite well until recently. Perdomo has seemingly hit a bit of a wall of late. He’s been very hittable in his last four starts, getting touched up for 30 hits in 18.2 innings. Granted, the Friars have been playing some very shaky defense behind him and that has contributed to having to face extra batters. But Perdomo is not sharp right now and I can easily make a case that he’s more fade than follow material at this juncture.

I’m a fan of backing first time starters as there’s no book on these sight unseen guys. That often contributes to success the first time around the loop. As hot as Flexen has been to earn this promotion, I believe he’s worth an investment in this game and I will be backing the Mets.

Mike Lundin

Tampa Bay at New York
Play: New York -114

The Tampa Bay Rays had lost five on the bounce prior to back-to-back wins against the Orioles. Unfortunately for them I think their winning streak will end at that as they travel to the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees Thursday night.

The Yankees have won five of their last six and are 6-2 in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record. Thursday's starter, CC Sabathia (9-3, 3.44 ERA), has allowed just one run on six hits in 11 frames in his last two starts combined. The veteran southpaw is 2-0 against the Rays this season and the Yankees are 7-0 in Sabathia's last seven starts vs. their division rival.

Chris Archer (7-6, 3.77 ERA) will take the ball for the Rays. He is 1-6 with a 3.86 ERA in his last eight starts against the Bronx Bombers and note that the Rays are just 3-13 in Archer's last 16 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Yankees are 18-6 in the last 24 meetings at Yankee Stadium.

Marc Lawrence

New York at San Diego
Play: San Diego +101

Edges - Padres: Perdomo host 13-4 in Perdomo starts this season (4-0 last four overall home starts this season)… Mets: 0-2 away Game Four of a series this season. With that we recommend a 1* play on San Diego.

Ben Burns

Cubs vs. White Sox
Play: Over 10

The defending champs turn to Jon Lester (7-6, 3.95 ERA) on Thursday night. Lester most recently allowed two runs over eight innings in a victory over St. Louis on Saturday. While he’s looked better since the All Star break, note that Lester is still an uninspiring 3-3 with a 4.37 ERA on the road this season. The White Sox counter with Mike Pelfrey (3-7, 4.46) who also comes in off a decent outing, giving up one run over five innings in what turned out to be a 7-2 loss to KC on Saturday (Pelfrey is just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.03 ERA at home though.) Both starters have struggled with game-to-game consistency this season, making the over a very legitimate invest option in this particular matchup.

Mike Anthony

New York vs. San Diego
Play: New York -103

Chris Flexen vs Luis Perdomo The Mets have a decent offense - they can actually beat some teams with well timed extra base hits. When New York has a heavy bat swinging offense pumping and they have some semblance of average pitching they can beat many teams. Over the last several games - the Mets have been putting up around 6 or more and have been hitting pretty solidly. They haven't given up just quite yet. The last time San Diego faced the Mets was in May in a tough series. The Padres scored 4.3 runs/game in that series, and they allowed 5.7 runs/game and San Diego still went home with the series win. The difference between San Diego and New York, is, who has been figuring out how to get on base another couple times on the season. San Diego haven't figured out how to do that with any sort of success.

Brandon Shively

Rays at Yankees
Pick: Under 8.5

Chris Archer is having the best season of his career. He has always been at his best in games against teams like the Yankees on the big stage to this point in his career, and I see this as another big start for him where he thrives. C.C. Sabathia is up against a Rays team that isn't any good against left-handed pitching. Both bullpens have been throwing the ball well lately. I see a low scoring contest here.

Don Best Consensus

Cubs at White Sox
Pick: Cubs

The Cubs are 10-2 in their last 12 overall and 8-0 in their last eight road games.
The White Sox have sold off all their major league talent in a complete rebuild, they are 8-23 in their last 31 overall.
Lester has a solid 3.95 ERA over 123 innings this season.

Jim Feist

Cubs at White Sox
Pick: Under

This is a big park, great for pitchers, and and the Cubs have Jon Lester (7-6, 3.95 ERA) on the mound, off a pair of 3-hitters in 7 and 8 innings, beating Cardinals (3-2) and Braves (4-3). The Under is 12-5 in the Cubs last 17 road games. He faces a Chicago offense that is weak, #24 in runs, #21 in on base percentage, #25 in homers. The White Sox are 6-2-1 under the total against a team with a winning record. And the Under is 4-1-3 in the last 8 meetings.

Robert Ferringo

Chicago Cubs (-1.5, -120) over White Sox

This Cubs game should be a blowout. This is the continuation of this mid-week rivalry series. I can't see a scenario where the Cubs don't take at least two of the final three games after losing the opener in Wrigley. Jon Lester gets the call for this one, and he has been excellent in his last two outings, giving up just six hits and three runs in 15 innings while striking out 16 and walking just one. The White Sox will counter with Piñata Pelfrey. He has lost six of his last eight starts, has a 4.50 ERA on the season, and he's given up 15 runs in his last 18 innings of work. The Cubs are 9-4 in their last 13 interleague road games, and the White Sox are 6-16 in their last 22 against a team above .500. The favorite has won seven of nine in this series, and I see the Cubs taking this one big.

SPORTS WAGERS

LOS ANGELES -1½ +132 over Minnesota

With 2,200+ career innings of a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, you'd have been pretty safe to expect little from Ervin Santana this season. So naturally, the 34-year-old boasts a 3.26 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 20 starts in 2017. However, after 13 starts, he had a 2.20 ERA and a 0.89 ERA so things have been heading south and they are not about to stop. You see, Santana's actually posting some of the worst skills of his career. Pay attention the near two-run gap between xERA (5.06) and ERA. Santana's benefited from a unsustainable low hit rate of 23% and high strand rate of 80%. Santana's posting fewer Ks than ever before and it corresponds with a drop in his swing and miss rate. He's been unable to sustain 2016's control improvement and his underlying first-pitch strike rate and Ball% remain mediocre. Santana's current pace simply isn't sustainable. The last starter to post a sub-3.50 ERA with this poor command was was Clay Buchholz in 2010 and he subsequently fell off the map. With fewer strikeouts, more walks, and an insane amount of luck, it's time to cash out and sell Santana, as things will get much worse from here.

We get the Dodgers are a discount rate here because they are sending out Clayton Kershaw’s replacement here. Brock Stewart will make his season debut but not his major-league debut and he’s a kid to watch because he’s wickedly talented. Last year, Brock went 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA in 28 innings for the Dodgers. He rocketed from High-A to majors by June but was sent back to the minors after a lackluster debut. A month later, he returned to a thankless assignment in Coors and hit his groove with a 1.89 ERA in 19 innings. Last year, Stewart was dominating the minors on three levels. He was a college infielder, but was moved to the bullpen upon being selected in the sixth round of the 2014 draft. After one season as a reliever, he was moved to the starting rotation in 2015 before his breakout campaign in 2016. Stewart features a plus 91-96 mph fastball with a hard slider that exhibits cutter action. His best secondary offering is a change-up that flashes plus with late fade and sink. It is an effective neutralizer against left-handed hitters. With good size (6’3” 210 pounds) and a relatively fresh arm, there is some upside here. Stewart has made great progress with pitch sequencing and he already throws consistent strikes and rarely beats himself with walks. While there are a few rough edges to smooth out, there is little left to prove in AAA and now he may just need a chance. This is it.

SAN DIEGO +109 over N.Y. Mets

Steven Matz has a mere 30 K’s in 44 innings, which means he’s at the mercy of BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). In his last start, Matz pitched five full at Oakland and allowed three earned runs but was very lucky to escape with that pitching line after allowing nine hits. The start prior, Matz didn’t make it out of the second inning after allowing nine hits and seven runs back in New York to the Rockies. The game before that, Matz struck out one batter and it was the pitcher. Matz has upside but he’s spent more time on the DL over the past two seasons than he has in the rotation and when you’re always a step or two behind the rest of the league, you’re always at a disadvantage. We’ve been fading Matz lately and we’re not about to let up now. Dude is struggling badly and batters are squaring up on him with ease.

Jhoulys Chacin did not have the best start to the 2017 season. In his first start of the year, he gave up nine earned runs against the Dodgers. Chacin gave up another seven runs four starts later at the hands of the Diamondbacks. By the time the baseball season reached the end of April, Chacin was 3-3 with a 5.82 ERA. The threat of him imploding on any given night made him a fade target for many. However, since the beginning of June, the 29-year-old Chacin has produced very different results. If we simply look at Chacin’s season stats, there isn’t a lot that will jump out. However, his monthly splits begin to paint a positive picture. After the first month of the season, Chacin’s ERA was 5.82. That number dropped to 3.00 in June, and it sits at 2.08 in July. Also, his K-rate % has slowly increased each month of the season. Chacin has never been known as a strikeout pitcher, but the production has gradually gotten better over the course of the season.

There are other encouraging trends as well. His soft contact rate is trending upward, and his groundball rate is as high as it’s been since 2011. Add to these factors increased velocity and you have the makings of a more successful pitcher. These are all positive signs but there’s more. It appears that much of Chacin’s success stems from the fact that he’s throwing his slider more than at any point in his career. In April, he was throwing the pitch only 21% of the time. In June and July, that rate has been north of 35%. Chacin’s slider has the highest whiff/swing rate in his arsenal (33.89%), and it’s been his most successful pitch against opposing batters. His curve has produced slightly better results, but he’s thrown it far less often. Jhoulys Chacin has a 1.94/3.01 ERA/xERA at home. The Padres have won his last four starts and they’ve also won six of his last eight starts. Chacin has defeated the Dodgers over that span and did not allow a single run to them and now he’s a dog priced against Steven Matz and the Mets? We buy bargains and this is one of them.

Kansas City +111 over DETROIT

Earlier this year, we likened Ian Kennedy to a scoop of vanilla ice cream: dependable (30+ starts each of the last seven years), but underwhelming (just one sub-3.50 ERA in that span). This year it’s much of the same with 18 games started and a 4.61 ERA over 98 innings. Any chance we'll see a new flavour in the second half? Time will tell but at least there's hope. Kennedy’s skills over the last 12 months profile him as a legit sub-4 ERA guy: 9.4 K’s/9, 2.9 BB’s/9 and a 3.88 xERA. His good command has come with solid underlying support (11% swing and miss rate and 63% first-pitch strike rate), so he's worth using in doses, especially in spacious parks. Current Tigers are batting just .248 off Kennedy in 129 combined AB’s.

Coming off a 2016 where his ERA approached 6.00, Anibal Sanchez needed a strong start to 2017 to make a positive impression. But with a 9.00 ERA in his first 11 relief appearances, it wasn’t a good impression. Sanchez spent some time in the minors before coming back in mid-June and he’s looked better (4.11 ERA in 35 IP) in six starts since he rejoined the rotation but don’t look for any miraculous turnaround. Sanchez has improved his control but a big first-pitch strike rate decline could spell trouble. Despite dwindling velocity, Sanchez keeps swinging strikes and K-rate around league average but he’s been getting teed up by right-handed hitters. With the Tigers in rebuild mode, there’s an opportunity for Sanchez to eat some innings over the rest of the year. His 5.95 ERA should improve but that doesn’t mean you want him doing it on your bankroll. At 33 with his $16 million option in 2018 likely to be declined, Sanchez will struggle to find a job in 2018 because he’s just not very good anymore, thus making him a prime fade target the rest of the way when favored.

Oakland +150 over TORONTO

Despite winning the past two days, Toronto’s offense looks as stale as it was before this series began. The Hays scored four unearned runs in the second inning last night and did not score again the entire night. In the opener of this series, the Blue Jays scored four times also. The Blue Jays will go for the sweep here and of course, they may get it but Marco Estrada cannot be favored in this range over anyone right now so our fade on Estrada will continue.

Estrada’s struggles this year are well-documented but it’s even worse than you may think. His xERA of 7.83 over his last 10 starts is the worst mark over a 10-game stretch that we have ever seen. If the Jays had some healthy bodies, Estrada would have likely been sent down or demoted to the pen to work things out. The other possibility is that the Jays are praying that he throws one of his lucky gems with a bunch of scouts in the stands watching. The trade deadline is five days away and scouts are everywhere. Over his past 17 frames covering four starts, Estrada has walked 18 batters. The Jays have won just two of his last nine starts and both victories were by scores of 7-6 over the Yanks and Rangers, respectively. His batted ball profile of 30% grounders, 22% line-drives and 48% fly-balls is one of the weakest profiles in the game. Perhaps most importantly, Estrada must be battling the demons in his own mind now by trying to figures out what the hell is going on. Physically and mentally, this is a beaten up starter that is likely to get whacked again. By the way, there is nothing to figure out. We insisted for two years that he was getting by on luck and it’s caught up to him.

Paul Blackburn has just nine K’s in 25 frames but that’s not his game. His game is to work fast, put the ball in play and let his defense do the rest. Blackburn was originally a supplemental first round pick of the Cubs in 2012 before being sent to the Mariners in July 2016. Seattle later traded him to Oakland in November 2016. He is all about command and control and works effectively down in the zone with three average offerings. Blackburn is a sinkerballer with a 90-93 mph fastball that he spots well. He’ll mix in a slightly above average curveball, hard slider, and below average change-up. He is able to repeat his simple delivery and slot which allows him to throw quality strikes. He has a tremendous batted ball profile of 54% grounders, 13% line-drives and 33% fly-balls. Obviously, Blackburn’s 2.88 ERA will not hold up but that’s a discussion for another time. This one is all about fading Estrada.

Power Sports

Cubs at White Sox
Pick: Over 10

The Cubs have had little problem w/ the cross-town rival White Sox this week, winning the last two games by a combined margin of 15-5. As the series has moved to the Southside of town (first two games were at Wrigley), it's important to note that the Cubs are a team averaging over 5.0 rpg the last week and playing in an AL park, which means they get to benefit from the DH. Last night, not surprisingly, was their highest scoring output of the three games vs. the White Sox so far w/ eight runs.

The Cubs lost at home Monday as they were in a terrible spot, playing in the afternoon after the Sunday night game. That is one of only two losses for them since the All-Star Break, both games being daytime affairs. As you can tell from the money line here, calling for another Cubs win here is a virtual "no-brainer," but the better value is on playing the Over. I see the Cubs having little to no difficulty knocking around White Sox starter Mike Pelfrey, who has a 1.615 WHIP his L3 starts, all losses. Pelfrey walked six batters his last time out as his KW ratio for the year (52-39) remains wholly unimpressive.

Cubs starter Jon Lester has actually struggled somewhat in his career against the White Sox as his ERA is 4.43 in 14 starts. Yes, he looked good his last time out, but note that both runs allowed came on home runs. He's now allowed five home runs in his L4 starts. Tonight also marks the 1st time all year that Lester has had to pitch in an AL park. Expect him to struggle more than usual as he has to face a lineup that includes a DH and not the pitcher's spot.

Will Rogers

Rays vs. Yankees
Pick: Yankees

The set-up: The Rays and Yankees open a four-game series tonight in the Bronx. A week ago, the Tampa Bay Rays began play with a 1 1/2-game lead over the New York Yankees for the top wild-card spot in the AL but as this series begins tonight at Yankee Stadium, it is the Yankees who are holding the lead and the Rays are no longer even occupying the second wild-card spot. Tampa Bay (now 53-49) held its lead by owning a 51-45 record after winning four of its first five games after the break and seven of 10. A five-game skid that featured three one-run losses combined with Kansas City's hot streak (Royals enter tonight on an eight-game winning streak pushed the Rays out of the second spot. The Rays do head into their visit to Yankee Stadium with some momentum, as they ended their five-game slide by besting the Orioles Tuesday and Wednesday, scoring five runs in each victory. As for the Yankees, after stumbling into the All Star break by losing 18 of 25 games, they are 8-5 since the break after Luis Severino pitched seven outstanding innings (allowed jst two unearned runs) in a 9-5 victory over the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday. New York is now 53-46, one game back of the Red Sox in the AL East and a half-game better than the Royals for the top wild card spot.

The pitching matchup: Chris Archer (7-6 & 3.77 ERA) will start the series opener for the Rays up against New York's C.C. Sabathia (9-3 & 3.44 ERA). Archer pitched at least six innings for the 12th straight time (the longest streak of his career) in his last outing, a 4-3 loss to Texas. Archer allowed four runs (just on earned) and struck out 11 in seven innings. He's got excellent stuff but he still has just seven wins in 21 starts (Rays are just 12-9 in all games). Archer is 6-6 with a 2.73 ERA in 16 starts against the Yankees. The veteran Sabathia is in the midst of an outstanding bounce-back season, as he looks to nail down his 10th win of the season (would be his 14th double-digit win season of his career. CC's nine wins hardly tell the whole story of his 2017 season, as the Yankees are 12-4 in his 16 starts, giving him one of MLB's best moneyline marks. Sabathia is 16-14 with a 3.73 ERA in 43 career starts against Tampa Bay (teams are 23-20), which is the team he has faced the most. Since joining the Yankees in 2009, Sabathia is 9-13 with a 4.23 ERA in 32 starts against the Rays and 4-6 with a 4.69 ERA in 16 starts at Yankee Stadium.

The pick: I really like Archer but he so often pitches well with nothing to show for it. He began his career by going 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his first eight starts against the Yankees. but since Sept 6, 2015, he is 1-6 with a 3.86 ERA in his last eight starts. I'm on CC!

DOC'S SPORTS

Arizona vs. St Louis
Play: Under 9

I like Adam Wainwright in this game. He has looked very good over his last few starts. Wainwright has given up two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts and the total is 1-5 in his last six starts. He shut down the Diamondbacks in a 4-3 Cardinals win on June 28. He only allowed two runs in six innings in th

BRANDON LEE

Rays vs. Yankees
Pick: Yankees

It use to be an automatic play on the Rays with Archer on the mound against the Yankees, as he started out his career going 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his first 8 starts against them. It's been a different story since, as Archer is a mere 1-6 with a 3.86 ERA in his last 8 starts. He's got a 4.12 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 10 road starts and will facing a surging New York team that has won 3 straight and 5 of their their last 6 overall. Yankees will send out veteran C.C. Sabathia, who has been sharp in his first two outings out of the break, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits over 11 innings in wins on the road over the Mariners and Red Sox.