JIMMY BOYD
A's / Blue Jays Under 9
I like the value here with the UNDER on Thursday's total between the A's and Blue Jays. Both of these offenses have been struggling. Oakland has scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 straight games and Toronto has scored 4 or less in 6 straight and 9 of their last 10.
Adding value here is the pitching matchup. The A's send out Sean Manaea, who owns a respectable 3.82 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 18 starts. His only career start against the Blue Jays came back in early June and he allowed just 2 runs on 4 hits in 6 innings. Toronto counters with the red-hot Marcus Stroman, who is now 9-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 20 starts. Stroman has been at his best at home (2.70 ERA) and owns a sensational 0.84 ERA in his last 3 starts.
JACK JONES
Reds / Marlins Over 9.5
Expect a slug fest tonight in Miami as the Reds take on the Marlins in Game 1 of a 4-game set. This is a Marlins team that comes in with a ton of confidence after scoring 22 runs against the Rangers yesterday. They should stay hot at the plate here tonight.
Robert Stephenson has not pitched well in limited action in the big leagues. He has gone 2-6 with a 6.99 ERA and 1.776 WHIP while allowing 52 earned runs in 67 innings pitched. He just faced the Marlins on July 22nd, giving up 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 5 1/3 innings.
Chris O'Grady will be making just his 4th career start tonight. He has gone 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in three starts this season. O'Grady has control problems as he has already walked 10 batters in 15 innings. He gave up 3 runs and 10 base runners in 4 2/3 innings against the Reds opposite Stephenson in that July 22nd start.
Cincinnati is 11-2 OVER in road games after having lost four of their last five games this season. Miami is 25-11 OVER off a win by 4 runs or more over the last two seasons.
Brad Wilton
Five days ago Robert Stephenson and Chris O'Grady toed the rubber in Cincy in a game that saw 5 runs on the scoreboard after just 2 innings played, BUT the game held Under the total. Not tonight!
Stephenson owns an 8.10 ERA for his 30 innings pitched this season, while O'Grady's ERA is 5.40 for his 15 innings worked. Bottom line, these teams WILL hit these pitchers, and this game WILL go Over the total.
The Reds just went Over on Wednesday afternoon to snap a 5-game Under streak. Look for their late uprising in New York to carry over tonight in Miami.
The Marlins are back home after back-to-back interleague Overs in Arlington against the Rangers. Last night seeing Miami score 22 big ones!
I believe last week's game between Stephenson and O'Grady should have gone Over, but didn't. Tonight no such disappointment. Take the Over in the Reds and Marlins.
4* CINCINNATI-MIAMI OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for today is on the Cleveland Indians over the Angels from Anaheim. Play this game on the Run Line.
The Indians are one of the hottest teams in the American League.
They've won six straight games.
This is an early game for a West coast team, and that has to play a streaking team on its own field.
Cleveland runs away with this.
3* INDIANS -1.5
Jack Brayman
Short and sweet: It's my favorite time of the year. You can find great value with these games. I've made you a fortune - as promised - it's time to focus on value numbers in Baseball and gear up for football, which starts next week.
Now about this complimentary winner
My free play is on the Toronto Blue Jays in an early battle with the Oakland Athletics. Play this game on the Run Line.
Oakland has dropped three in a row, and the Jays have now won three straight. This game will be over quickly, as Toronto's bats come to life.
4* BLUE JAYS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Thursday freebie is the Under in the A's-Jays matinee from the Rogers Centre.
This series has not seen much offense, as Monday the clubs combined for just 6 runs total. On Tuesday, it was just 7 runs combined, and yesterday only 5 runs crossed between the teams.
Oakland needs to fly back to California after today's affair, so look for the pace of this game to be a little quicker than normal. Also look for a few starters to be given the day off after playing a night game last night.
The pitching matchup features a pair of capable hurlers in Sean Manaea and Marcus Stroman. Both should be able to make quick work of the batters this afternoon, as we see an Under in the series finale between Oakland and Toronto.
Play it low today in Canada.
3* OAKLAND-TORONTO UNDER
Buster Sports
Cincinnati at Miami
Play: Miami -130
We are going with the Miami Marlins tonight is a faces Cincinnati Reds in the first game of a four-game series at Marlins Park. Starting pitchers for tonight’s game are for the Reds Rh Robert Stephenson (0-3, 8.10 ERA) and he will face the Marlins LH Chris O’Grady (1-1, 5.40 ERA). Stevenson has been terrible for the Reds this year as his 8.10 ERA suggests. This will be his only second start of the season and his first one did not go too well against these same Marlins.We see the Marlins getting to Stevenson early and often tonight. As for O’Grady he has pitched okay for the Marlins so far. In his only home start he gave up three runs in five innings. We see O’Grady pitching much better tonight as the nerves of the first home start will not be there. Backing our selection is the fact that the Reds are 6-19 against left-handed starters this year.
Sports Wagers picks are a day old and you didn't post them yesterday. Do you have today's picks
Thanks
Maurice
SPORTS WAGERS
WINNIPEG -3 over Montreal
The Blue Bombers have yet to put together four full quarters and it cost them again last week in Vancouver. The Bombers had a 15-point lead in the fourth but watched it vanished in a matter of minutes. The Lions went up by three after Ty Long kicked a 34-yard field goal with less than a minute left. It might be easy to forget but Bombers quarterback Matt Nichols did have the ball in his hands with time on the clock. A rare miss (even if it was from 50+ yards) from Blue kicker Justin Medlock sealed the deal for the Lions. There have been flashes of brilliance by the Bombers offense including going 5-for-5 in the red zone against the Lions last week. The Blue Bombers are second in the league averaging 32 points-per-game. Winnipeg is now 2-2 in the ultra-competitive West Division, which is good for 4th place. Out East that would be good enough for second place and a home playoff date. Obviously, there is a long way to go but the imbalance between East and West goes far beyond just the numbers of teams playing in each division. So far this season the West is 8-2-1 against the East.
The Alouettes threw the baby out with the bath water this off season when they cleaned out their front office. The new brass made some major changes including bringing in quarterback Darian Durant but it's been their commitment to the run game that has separated the Als from the rest of the pack. It may be because of necessity, as it doesn't look like Durant has what it takes week-in and week-out. Durant is coming off his biggest game of the year by throwing for 452 yards and two touchdowns but it's his commitment to throwing the big interception that plagues the Als. Durant added two more picks to his league leading total of six. The Al's offense has sputtered with Durant at the helm, averaging a league worst 20.2 points per game including just 278 passing yards (8th). In a league with a 70/30 pass/run ratio that's not a recipe for success.
We can understand that Montreal may carry some appeal into this game. Both teams have two wins but the Als have a victory over a Calgary team that blew out these Bombers just a few weeks ago. A win over a top team like Calgary carries some weight in the market. Thing is, the Bombers offense is looking very sharp. They went into B.C. and out up major yards and points but got caught taking their foot off the pedal late. In an offense-oriented league, at home and after what we’re calling a confidence building loss that taught this host a valuable lesson, we trust we’re getting the superior team at a real bargain here and will play it accordingly. If the line goes to -3½, don't be afraid to play it.
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. LOUIS -1½ +162 over Arizona
For whatever reason, some teams thrive at home and look like a completely different team on the road. The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of those teams. Arizona is 36-18 at home but they are three games under .500 at home with a 22-25 record. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are coming on strong after just sweeping the Rockies in impressive fashion. Now the D-Backs are favored because on paper Zach Godley looks like a much better option that Luke Weaver but we’re not so sure about that.
Zack Godley has gotten ahead of hitters at a much higher rate in 2017 (63% first-pitch strike rate) than he did in 2016 (52%). He also has increased his swinging strike rate a ton (11.0% to 14.5%). Those jumps in his command sub-indicators have driven the big improvements in skills from 2016 (6.39 ERA) to 2017 (3.32 ERA). Godley was on fire for a while but has cooled off by allowing 11 earned runs over his past 11.2 innings. Over his last four starts, his first-pitch strike rate is back down to 53%. He’s only made 13 starts this year because he was down in the minors for a while so running into trouble is not new for him. We said last year "when his command is off, he can be hit hard", and that's pretty much what’s happening here. His K’s per batter faced can sometime get very flat and now he’ll face a hot offense. Sure, Godley could thrive here but it is the Cardinals and Luke Weaver that are being sold short here.
Luke Weaver is major league ready. He’s made just two appearances this year both out of the pen but make no mistake that this is a career starter. Weaver goes after hitters with a solid 91-96 mph fastball that he keeps low in the zone with terrific late action. Weaver throws with very clean, athletic mechanics that he repeats consistently and allows him to own plus control and command. His best pitch is a change-up that he has the confidence to use in any count. Because of his quality three-pitch mix, command, and aggressiveness, he registers a lot of strikeouts. At Memphis in the hitter-friend Pacific Coast League, Weaver went 9-1 with 1.81 ERA with 69 K’s in 66 innings. The market won’t see that. Instead, they’ll see two innings in relief this year and a record last year with a 5.70 ERA in 36 innings for the Cards. Ignore that high MLB ERA that was bloated by a 40% hit rate and unlucky BABIP and focus on his underlying skills like 11.1 K’s/9 and 3.16 xERA. This is a quality prospect coming off a an incredible first half in the PCL league whose strong MLB debut was obscured by noise. A buying opportunity awaits.
N.Y. Mets +104 over SAN DIEGO
We have gotten behind Luis Perdomo many times this year and have written about his skills in the past but it is now time to switch gears and fade him because his skills are trending the wrong way. Remember, this is a Rule 5 pick that weathered an early storm last year after getting a rotation promotion in June. As a Rule 5 pick, the Padres had to keep him with the big club or risk losing him so they chose the former, which is common for non-contenders. Perdomo has had some brilliant outings and some blowups but it appears like he’s working with a fatigued arm now. Over his last four starts, Perdomo’s swing and miss rate has dropped from 11% to 7%. That’s significant. His ball % and concurrent walks are up. Over his last four starts, he’s walked seven and struck out just 12 over 19 innings but four of those 12 K’s were against the opposition’s pitcher. His WHIP over that span was an alarming 1.98. Perdomo has made it past the fifth inning only one time over his last four starts. Over those 19 frames, he’s been tagged for 30 hits and 17 earned runs. In his last start against the Giants, Perdomo only allowed one earned run in six innings but he was hit hard and luck played a big role in that outcome. Finally, Perdomo has been torched by lefties this year (.327 BA with an .887 OPS) and the Mets lineup is lefty dominated with Asdrubal Cabrera, Lucas Duda, Jose Reyes, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson all batting left-handed. Perdomo will then have to deal the right-handed hitting Yoenis Cespedes.
The Padres are favored here because the Mets have a first time starter going that makes the rare jump from Double-A to the majors. The market does not like but we do because you have to be pretty damn good to skip Triple-A. Enter Chris Flexen and his large, durable frame (6’3” 250 pounds). Flexen worked his way back from Tommy John surgery that wiped out half of 2014 and most of 2015. He began 2017 in mid-May because of minor knee surgery earlier in the year. Flexen has been outstanding this season with very promising trends. His strikeout rate has increased from 6.4 K’s/9 in 2016 to 9.3 this season. Furthermore, his above-average control has returned while he’s becoming more difficult to hit. His stuff is above-average, highlighted by his fastball that sits between 90-93 mph and touches 95. It features outstanding movement and is never straight. Flexen mixes in a hard cutter and a big-bending curveball. He also has a below average change-up in his arsenal. His pitches are tough to elevate and he mostly keeps the ball on the ground. If the increases in his strikeout rate are legitimate, so, too, is he and so now would be the time to buy. STATS: Binghamton (AA) – 7 games started, 6-1, 1.66 ERA, 48.2 IP 9.3 K’s/9 4 HR, .165 oppBA.
Sports Wagers picks are a day old and you didn't post them yesterday. Do you have today's picks
Thanks
Maurice
Fixed it, I could have sworn I posted them yesterday if not I apologize.
Bruce Marshall
Reds at Marlins
Pick: Over
Sometimes a bit reluctant to expect a team to score big the night after tallying 20+ runs as the Marlins did last night in Texas. But the dynamics of tonight's matchup vs. Cincy suggest another high-scoring affair, especially with these rookie starters (Stephenson for Cincy, O'Grady for Miami) facing one another for the second time in a week, and opposing hitters now knowing what they'll see. Stephenson, by the way, has an 8.10 ERA, and there is the matter of the flammable Reds bullpen that makes "over" more enticing.
Teddy Covers
Cincinnati vs. Miami
Pick: Miami -127
The Cincinnati Reds are a dead nuts ‘bet-against’ team right now, a hopeless squad that has thrown in the towel on the 2017 campaign. Cinci opened the second half with a 2-8 homestand. They’ve gone 0-3 since hitting the highway, losing all three games in non-competitive fashion, by multi-run margins.
Quotes like this one from manager Bryan Price don’t inspire much confidence from this bettor – his entire focus is on evaluating talent for next year, not winning games this year: “These last 10 weeks are very important because I think we have to have a vision of what our starting rotation is going to look like in 2018, but we have to have that vision in 2017. I think it's going to be very difficult to come in and say, talk about, being really competitive if the vision isn't — if we don't know what 2018 is going to look like, at least from the outset.”
The Reds pitching staff is in shambles, bad news against a Marlins team that just pounded out a season high 22 runs last night in Texas. The Reds starters have combined to rank dead last in MLB in innings pitched, ERA and FIP. As a result, their bullpen is completely gassed, throwing gas on fires instead of putting them out. And Price is trying to stretch out his starters, leaving them in games where a strong bullpen would have their collective backs.
Robert Stephenson’s first start of the season came last week, against the same Marlins lineup he’ll face today. It wasn’t pretty, as he allowed eight hits, two walks and five earned runs in 5.1 innings of work, taking the loss in the process. In nine big league starts over the past two years, Stephenson has recorded an out in the sixth inning only once. Like many young pitchers, he’s been awful on the highway, with a 10.97 ERA away from home; an easy ‘fade’ on the highway tonight.
The betting markets aren’t particularly enamored with Marlins starter Chris O’Grady – hence the cheap price to support Miami this evening. O’Grady is no ace in the making, but he’s allowed three runs in each of his first three big league starts, keeping his team in the game. Cinci’s lineup isn’t hitting right now, producing four runs or less ten times in 13 games since the Break. Price: “We don't have anybody who's on fire. We haven't gotten to our power in the second half, which had been our strength in terms of driving the ball for extra-base hits."
JOHN MARTIN
New York vs. San Diego
Play: San Diego -113
The San Diego Padres have been a profitable bet at home this season with their 25-25 record and +3.3 units at Petco Park. I like this price of -113 today against the New York Mets. Chris Flexen will be making his major league debut here for the Mets. The Padres have gone 6-3 in Luis Perdomo's nine home starts this season as he has been consistently overlooked.
DAVE PRICE
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -122
The Cardinals are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies in which they got their bats going in scoring a combined 21 runs in the series. "We're hitting the ball really well, passing the baton," St. Louis shortstop Paul DeJong said. "We're starting to gain momentum."The Cardinals will bring up Luke Weaver from Memphis to start Thursday night. Weaver is 9-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 13 starts at Triple-A. He has worked twice in relief during a brief callup to St. Louis this year, firing three scoreless innings. The Diamondbacks are just 22-25 on the road this season where they are hitting .238 as a team.