DAVE COKIN
BALTIMORE AT MINNESOTA
PLAY: BALTIMORE +100
Gulp. Yeah, I’m actually advocating a play on one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball.
Ubaldo Jimenez will be on the mound tonight at Target Field as the Orioles and Twins make up a game that was postponed earlier this season.
There is no way I will try to even remotely defend backing Ubaldo. He’s a horror show. Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson has been reasonably good lately for the Twins. So, if you’re just looking at the hurlers, making the case that Gibson should be the choice is completely understandable.
This play is all about the teams involved, and not the two starting pitchers. The Twins are terrible, and I don’t believe there’s any circumstance in which they should be favored over the Orioles. Granted, Baltimore has been a mediocre road team. But they’re still a first place team that has been having around the .600 plateau for most of the season. Meanwhile, the Twins have been one of the two worst teams in the game for the entire campaign.
And that’s about the story as far as this game goes. If I’m going to have an opportunity to get even money or thereabouts with a very solid Orioles entry against the pathetic Twins, it’s likely a buy sign for me. Add in the fact that Minnesota has lost three straight, including back to back home games to the even more lowly Braves, and I’ll take my chances. Even with the dreadful Ubaldo on the mound, I’m siding with the Orioles tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Royals vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -160
This game is a right back rematch from 4 days ago as Hamels and Texas beat Ventura and KC 7-4. Now they switch venues. However the results will likely stay the same as Texas fits a 75% league wide system that pertains to their loss last night. The Royals are 1-14 in the first game of a series vs a lefty when they lost the last three times they faced a lefty . Hamels has a stellar 2.87 Era this year and has won 7 of 9 home team starts. Ventura has dropped 7 of 10 on the road and has a 5.26 road era, while losing his last 3 to Texas. Look for the Rangers to take the opener.
Stephen Nover
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -125
Unlike other sports, motivation rarely counts in handicapping baseball. But once in a while it can factor. Couple that with a strong pitching/bullpen edge, a key under-the-radar injury and fair price and the Brewers become an investment today.
Did you say lay a price with the rebuilding Brewers, owners of a 43-56 record?
Yes. Much sets up well for Milwaukee here. The Brewers are home to Arizona, who are even worse at 42-59. The pitching matchup is lefty Robbie Ray against Zach Davies. Ray is the bigger strikeout pitcher and has more name recognition. Davies is the better pitcher. More on that shortly.
Milwaukee owns a winning home mark and is 18-14 versus southpaws. Arizona is 2-9 in its last 11 road games. One of those victories, though, came Wednesday night when the Diamondbacks embarrassed the Brewers, 8-1.
Actually the Brewers embarrassed themselves by playing their worst game of the season. I know that's saying a lot when talking Brewers baseball. Certainly it was their sloppiest game of the season with base running mistakes and five errors, the most they've made in a game since 2007.
I have to think the Brewers come out with more incentive than normally attached to a regular-season game especially in front of their loyal and patient fan base.
None of this would matter, though, if the pitching matchup wasn't in Milwaukee's favor, too.
Davies started the season in awful fashion giving up 13 runs in 13 1/3 innings during his first three starts. Since then, the right-hander has gone 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA holding opponents to a .217 batting average. He's 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts.
Ray is flashier and more highly-touted. Like the rest of the Arizona pitching staff, Ray has disappointed. He hasn't been at the absolute brutal level of Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin, but his 5-9 record and 4.53 ERA isn't winning any awards. Ray is 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA in his last six starts.
The Diamondbacks may now own the worst bullpen in the National League after dealing closer Brad Ziegler. By contrast, the Brewers could have the most underrated late-inning relief in the majors with Will Smith, Tyler Thornburg and closer Jeremy Jeffress.
Arizona has lost 17 of the past 21 times it has gone against a righty starter. The Diamondbacks are likely to be missing left-handed slugging third baseman Jake Lamb, who leads the team in homers with 21 and is tied for first in RBIs with Paul Goldschmidt. He's been sidelined with a hand injury and isn't expected to return until Friday.
Mike Lundin
Royals vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -154
The Rangers took two of three from the Royals in Kansas City last week. I like Texas as the teams open a four-game set at Arlington Thursday night.
Cole Hamels (11-2, 2.87) takes the ball for Texas. He hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts, and that includes 5 1/3 innings against the Royals his last time out. Rangers are 13-3 in Hamels' last 16 home starts and 8-1 in Hamels' last nine home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Royals turn to Yordano Ventura (6-8, 4.99 ERA) who is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts against the Rangers after surrendering three runs and three hits with four walks through five innings when tossing opposite Hamels last week. The Royals have lost each of his last five starts and he's 2-5 with a 5.26 ERA in 10 road starts this season.
Kansas City ended a four-game skid with a 7-5 victory against the Halos on Wednesday, but it's 0-7 in its last seven games following a win.
Marc Lawrence
Royals vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -165
Edges - Rangers: Cole Hamels 10-3 team starts at night, and 11-4 team starts versus right handers this season. Royals: Yordano Ventura 1-3 team starts versus A.L. West this season. With Hamels 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA in his last seven team starts, and Ventura 0-5 with 6.33 ERA in his last five starts, we recommend a 1* play on Texas.
Scott Spreitzer
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -125
Jimmy Nelson and the Brewers had a meltdown last night as Arizona scored five runs in the top of the first and Milwaukee committed five errors. However, the Brewers have a great chance to bounce back from Wednesday's debacle with Zach Davies, who has allowed only three earned runs his last three starts in 20 innings. Davies is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA in June and July and the Diamondbacks have never faced him. Robbie Ray is 5-9 with a 4.53 ERA and the Diamondbacks have lost 13 of Ray's last 16 road starts dating to last season. Milwaukee has won eight of its last 10 home games against southpaw starters and we'll back them here.
Bob Harvey
Nationals vs. Giants
Play: Giants -134
In a potential playoff preview, the Washington Nationals visit the San Francisco Giants in the opener of a four-game series. Johnny Cueto faces Tanner Roark.
The Nationals (59-42, 28-22 road) who are in the midst of a nine-game road trip, own a four-game advantage over Miami following Wednesday's 4-1 victory over Cleveland. Washington is 5-6 since the break and the face of the franchise is struggling. Bryce Harper is 0-for-17 over his last five games and batting .177 in July. His BA for the season is just .237.
The Giants (59-42, 30-19 home) have lost nine of 11 since the All-Star break after losing a 2-1 decision to Cincinnati on Wednesday. San Francisco’s once healthy lead in the National League has been shaved to just 2.5 games over the Dodgers.
Roark (9-6, 3.05 ERA) is coming off his first loss in more than a month. He allowed five runs and four hits in five innings in a 5-3 loss to San Diego on Friday. Prior to that outing he was 3-0 with a 1.72 ERA in his previous five games. Roark is 3-0 with a 4.30 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 14.1 career innings against the Giants.
Cueto (13-2, 2.53) who stared the All-Star game, has proven to be one of the best free agent signings of the off-season. He’ll be out to join Washington's Stephen Strasburg as the only 14-game winners in the NL, Cueto has been money at home, going 5-1 with a 2.43 ERA in nine home starts this season.
Washington is 8-2 in Roark’s last 10 starts whiles San Francisco is 2-9 in its last 11 overall.
The UNDER is 8-3 in the past 11 series meetings.
Scott Rickenbach
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Play: Under 9
The Brewers Zach Davies has pitched extremely well and has a 7-1 record and 2.84 ERA over his last 14 starts to show for it! He's been particularly sharp since the break with just 1 earned run allowed on only 7 hits in 13 and 1/3 innings spanning his two starts since the All Star Break. He has another edge here in that the Diamondbacks have never faced him. Arizona starter Robbie Ray also has that same edge today in that the Brewers have never faced him. Ray certainly does not have the same impressive stats that Davies does this season but Ray truly has pitched very well of late. The Dbacks southpaw has been piling up the strikeout with 32 in his 23 innings of work in the month of July. Also, the left-hander was simply done in by 3 unearned runs and a mistake pitch (a 3-run homer allowed) in his most recent start against the Reds. Overall since the break he has allowed just 3 earned runs on only 10 hits in his 12 innings of work while also striking out 17. The Brewers .392 slugging percentage against left-handers this season ranks them 26th out of the 30 teams. The under is 6-1 this season in Arizona's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The under is 12-6 in Brewers games this month.
Jim Feist
Red Sox at Angels
Pick: Over
Boston has the top offense in baseball in runs, on base percentage and slugging. The Over is 23-9-1 against a losing record, as well as 20-6 over versus the AL West. They are not a great road team because of suspect pitching and "ace" David Price has been hit hard much of the season. He has a losing road record with a 4.77 ERA. Price comes off Saturday's 11-9 loss to the Twins, giving up five earned runs on 11 hits and two walks over 5.2 innings. Although he didn't give up any homers, Price pitched to a considerable amount of contact. He also fell behind early in the count frequently, notching first-pitch strikes on only 13 of 27 hitters and inducing a mere seven swinging strikes. Price was responsible for over half of the Twins' 19 hits on the night, and has now given up 11 hits in back-to-back starts. The Over is 7-3 in Price's last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. LA is home with an offense that is picking up, on a 5-2-2 run over the total. Jered Weaver has allowed 12 runs in his last eight innings over two starts to raise his ERA to 5.32.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are 46-57 and the Braves are a MLB-worst 35-66 as the two teams get set to open a four-game series in Atlanta. The Phillies will send Aaron Nola (5-9, 4.75 ERA) to the mound against Atlanta's Matt Wisler (4-10, 4.92 ERA) Thursday night. Both pitchers were highly regarded entering the 2016 season (the second for each) but both need to get things turned around. Many thought Nola would be Philly’s ace, after he went 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 13 starts at a rookie last year. He opened with a 2.65 ERA in his first 12 starts (he was 5-4 and the team was 7-5) but he’s winless over his last seven starts, while posting a 10.61 ERA (he’s 0-5 and the Phillies are 0-7!).
Wisler was 8-8 with a 4.71 ERA in 20 appearances in 2015 and was expected to find a place near the top of Atlanta’s starting rotation. Like Nola, he opened well, with a 2.98 ERA over his first eight starts but was just 2-3 and the struggling Braves lost SIX of those eight starts. However, Wisler has fallen off since that solid start and recently he owns a 5.98 ERA over his last seven starts. That includes him allowing 17 ERs over 15.1 innings of his last three starts, for a 9.98 ERA.
The Phillies are going nowhere but note that despite a sub-500 record (see above), they’ve gone plus-$122 vs the moneyline (9th-best of 30 teams). In stark contrast, the Braves not only own MLB’s worst W-L record but they own a moneyline mark of minus-$1,195 (27th of 30 teams). The Phillies are 6-3 against the Braves this season, including a three-game sweep at home earlier this month, and they are my play tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Twins -105
Minnesota is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Orioles. Baltimore will send out the struggling Ubaldo Jimenez, who is lucky to still be in the rotation. Jimenez is 5-9 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.954 WHIP in 17 starts. He's been even worse than that of late, giving up 11 runs on 11 hits and 5 walks in just 5 2/3 innings over his last 2 starts.
The Twins will counter here with Kyle Gibson, who is coming off one of his best starts of the season. Gibson allowed just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innings at Boston. The Oriole have a solid offense, but are struggling at the plate right now. They have scored 3 runs or less in each of their last 3 games and have had 7 or less hits in 4 straight.
Jimenez is a mere 2-13 in his last 15 road starts after a loss and 0-11 in his last 11 road starts after 2 or more defeats. Take Minnesota!
Chase Diamond
Colorado at New York
Play: Colorado
Were going after some major dog cash today as the 49-52 Rockies face off with the 53-47 Mets. Rockies are playing red hot baseball 7-3 in they're last 10 and believe this line is a tad inflated. Jacob DeGrom is a great young arm 6-5 with a 2.73 ERA but is off a horrible start where he went 3.2 innings and gave up 5 runs and 10 hits. Tyler Anderson is a pitcher that can keep the Rockies in the game he is 3-3 with a 3.56 ERA. Only 27% of the public are backing this road dog but the number seems to be holding tight or dropping paying out less plus money.
Brandon Lee
Rangers -1½ +126
I don't hate the Rangers on the money line, but I really like the value we are getting with Texas on the run line Thursday against the Royals. The Rangers will have their ace Cole Hamels on the mound and he's in good form right now with a 2.55 ERA over his last 3 starts. Not to mention he's 11-2 with a 2.87 ERA overall in 20 starts this season. Kansas City is in a free fall at the moment and are a mere 17-32 on the road this season. The Royals will send out Yordano Ventura, who has really struggled on the road. Ventura has a 5.26 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in 10 road starts. Royals are 2-13 as a road dog of +125 to +175 and have lost these games by an average of 2.4 runs/game.
Oskeim Sports
Arizona at Milwaukee
Pick: Under
Milwaukee right-hander Zachary Davies is having a solid 2016 campaign, posting a 3.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 17 starts. The 23-year-old has been particularly effective at home as evidenced by his 3.56 ERA, 3.78 xFIP and 22.8% strikeout rate (8.22 K/9). Davies also toes the rubber in excellent form with a 1.35 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 2.39 FIP in July (20.0 IP), together with an elite 4.1% walk rate (1.35 BB/9).
Davies possesses excellent command of his sinker and plus changeup, both of which have allowed him to post above-average exit velocity on balls in play. He is also throwing his cutter, four-seam and changeup more, which has also contributed to his vastly improved exit velocity suppression. Let's also note that Davies owns a 2.84 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP since the outset of May.
Arizona southpaw Robbie Ray is also enjoying a solid season with a 3.55 FIP, 3.73 xFIP and a 3.65 SIERA, together with an elite 26.8% strikeout rate (10.87 K/9). Ray has really excelled away from the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field, posting a 3.86 ERA (5.17 ERA at home) with a 29.3% strikeout rate (11.91 K/9) in 53.2 innings pitched.
The month of July has been even better for Ray wherein he has garnered a 31.1% K% (12.52 K/9) with a 2.92 FIP and a 3.31 xFIP. Ray's surface numbers are being held back by an unsustainable .362 BABIP, including a .379 BABIP in July. The talented lefty has been incredibly unlucky with balls in play, and I expect a breakout second half for Ray once the inevitable BABIP regression takes place.
From a technical standpoint, the UNDER is 13-5-1 in Ray's last 19 road starts and 8-2 in the Diamondbacks' last 11 road games versus teams with a winning home record. The UNDER is also 5-0 in Milwaukee's last five home games versus left-handed starters and 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in this series.
Power Sports
Baltimore vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
It's telling here that the last place team in the AL Central is a slight favorite to beat the first place team in the AL East. After dropping a pair of games here at home to lowly Atlanta, the Twins also have the worst record in the entire American League. After being favored just 35 times on the money line all of last season, it's happened just 22 times here in 2016.
So, clearly this is a signal to take an undervalued Orioles team in this spot, correct? Wrong. The O's are off B2B losses at home to Colorado and out on the road, they've been questionable all season. We're talking a 21-26 record, a far cry from the 37-16 mark they own at Camden Yards. This is a big-time revenge series for Minnesota too; they are 0-5 head to head to vs. Baltimore this year. Eventually, they've got to break through, right?
Facing the struggling Ubaldo Jimenez might be the key to Minnesota breaking through. His L3 starts, Jimenez has a 10.13 ERA and 2.158 WHIP. It would be one thing if there was just one bad start there, but the last two have both been bad as he's allowed 11 ER in just 5 2/3 IP. Furthemore, on the road this season, Jimenez is 1-6 w/ a 9.00 ERA and 2.143 WHIP. You have to like what you saw from the Twins' Kyle Gibson his last time out (1 ER, 2 hits in 8 IP at Boston). He'll lead his team to a win that will be labeled a "surprise," but actually isn't.