Jesse Schule
St. Louis vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
Miami are hoping to win their second straight series as they host the St Louis Cardinals in the first of four games in Miami.
Jose Fernandez (12-4, 2.54 ERA) will toe the slab for the Marlins pitching exactly where he wants to be. He is 9-1 at home with a 1.63 ERA while opposing batters are hitting just .192. He has allowed one run or less in three of his last four home starts and has struck out 15 batters while walking just two in his last 14 innings in Miami.
The Cardinals will hand the ball to Michael Wacha (5-7, 4.37 ERA) who has given up four HR's over his last three starts covering 16.2 innings. In those games he gave up eight runs and 22 hits while St Louis lost two of the three games. He is 2-5 at night with a 4.88 ERA.
Miami have won 11 of their last 16 games.
Buster Sports
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -111
The Orioles are hoping Ubaldo Jimenez (5-9, 7.03 ERA) can get back to his April form when he gets the start for the Orioles tonight after a 20 day hiatus. In his last 3 starts he has a 10.13 ERA with a WHIP of 2.158. On the road he is just as horrid with a 1-6 record and a 9.00 ERA with a WHIP of 2.146. Look for the Twins to beat him up tonight. The Twins send Kyle Gibson (3-6, 4.67 ERA) to the hill tonight and he has pitched decently against the Orioles with a 3.74 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.661. Since the All-Star break Gibson has pitched much better as his 3.21 ERA and WHIP of 1 suggests. We like the matchup here and we believe Jimenez's best days are behind him.
Carmine Bianco
WEST HAM at Domzale
Play: Under 2.5
This will be the third set of qualifiers for Domzale and they'll meet the toughest of three opponents with the winner of this two leg affair heading to the group stages of EL. Unlike their previous couple, they'll be the underdogs in both legs and expect them to play a more defensive minded game as it's likely their only hope here. This wil be West Hams first ELQ and they should get the win today in what I expect to be a low scoring defense first match.
Cork City at Genk
Play: Genk -1.5
Genk the better side here and with Leg 1 at home they'll look to put up a good number in a home win. A look at their 2016 home form shows 11 wins 1 draw 1 loss while outscoring opponents 41 to 14.
Gary Bart
White Sox at Cubs
Play: White Sox
This is the second half of a home and home series. All games have been won by the home team with the Cubs taking the game last night at home. The White Sox have been better lately and are one game below 500. I like the White Sox over the Cubs in this one.
Wunderdog
Arizona @ Milwaukee
Pick: Arizona +122
The Arizona Diamondbacks can hit at ninth in baseball in slugging, and are coming off an 8-1 win yesterday as a dog. They've scored 23 runs the last four games and wrap up this series in Milwaukee - a great park for home run hitters. The Diamondbacks are 40-19 on the road against a team with a losing record. Arizona lefty Robbie Ray has 132 strikeouts in 109+ innings and has rung up at least seven in seven straight starts. Milwaukee has problems all over at #25 in baseball in runs scored, #16 in pitching ERA and dead last in fielding with the most errors allowed. The Brewers are 19-39 against the National League West, so jump on the undervalued underdog and play Arizona.
Vegas Butcher
Colorado Rockies +147
No Cespedes and no Familia (unavailable) for the Mets tonight. Addison Reed has pitched in 2 straight games so if he’s called upon, his effectiveness might not be at the optimal level. So a weakened offense and a weakened BP for the home team here. Throw in the fact that Anderso is my #15 rated pitcher with an e-ERA of 3.4 that matches deGrom’s (#12 overall in my database), and you could see that this matchup should be much closer than the odds indicate.
Arizona Diamondbacks +125
Ray let me down last time, but I’m a sucker for underdog pitchers that rank in the top-10 the last 30-days or so. Davies has never seed the DBacks before so that’s part of the reason why he’s a favorite here, but to me Ray is a stronger starter and holds odds-value in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins -104
Minnesota’s offense is on fire, ranking as #2 overall in the last 30-days. If you look at season-long stats, offense is pretty much the only advantage that the O’s would seem to have in this matchup. But of course if we believe that the Twins closer resemble the offense that is on display right now, versus the struggling unit early in the year, then there’s value on the home team. Besides, over the last 30-days Ubaldo’s e-ERA is 6.3, 4th worst out of 155 starters. Gibson’s e-ERA is at 3.6 over this time-span, almost 3 runs less. Yeah, this one is a fairly easy play to make.
San Francisco Giants -140
Cueto at home at decent odds is hard to pass up. Roark is a good pitcher (top-30) in my database and Washington is an excellent team, but Cueto at home is almost unhittable (2.4 FIP). I like Giants’ chances.
Stephen Nover
Baltimore +102
Baltimore is 58-42. Minnesota is 37-63, the worst record in the American League. That's a sampling of 100 games. The verdict is in and the Orioles are much superior to the Twins.
So why did the Twins open a favorite here? Home field isn't that strong of a factor.
The big reason is Baltimore is throwing Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 5-9 with a 7.38 ERA. Jimenez, though, loves to pitch at Target Field where he's 4-1 lifetime with a 1.82 ERA.
Jimenez's wife just gave birth to his first daughter. He's relaxed now and should be strong having not pitched in nearly three weeks. I'm expecting a big game from Jimenez and the Orioles, who have a vastly superior offense to the Twins.
Twins starter Kyle Gibson is coming off his best game, but has always lacked consistency.
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox +120
The Chicago White Sox have had a nice revival here of late amidst the Chris Sale suspension, winning four of their last five games coming in. Now Sale will be highly motivated to make up for his childish incident and to beat the Cubs to give his team the 3-1 series victory.
Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back Sale as an underdog. He's arguably the best starter in the AL, going 14-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 19 starts, including 7-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.910 WHIP in 10 road starts. Sale relishes facing the Cubs, going 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two career starts against them.
John Lackey is 7-7 with a 3.79 ERA in 20 starts this season. He has really faltered of late, going 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 5 homers and 12 earned runs in 20 innings. Lackey hasn't fared well against the White Sox, going 3-8 with a 3.96 ERA in 17 career starts against them.
The White Sox are 15-5 in Sale's last 20 starts. The White Sox are 8-1 in Sale's last nine interleague starts. Sale is 11-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals +155
I like the price we are getting with the Kansas City Royals today as big road underdogs to the Texas Rangers. I don't believe the Rangers have as big of an advantage on the mound as this line would indicate. Yordano Ventura has pitched well of late with a 3.79 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Cole Hamels hasn't been very good at home this season, posting a 4.53 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in 9 starts. Hamels also hasn't enjoyed success against the Royals, going 1-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against them. Ventura is 31-13 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 6-15 in their last 21 games overall. Texas is 0-9 in its last 9 when its opponent scores 5 runs or more in the previous game.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 91-75 run with free picks: Philadelphia at ATLANTA (+110)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Let's head to the A-T-L for my complimentary winner tonight, as I love the Atlanta Braves for a second straight night, this time against the Philadelphia Phillies. And I'm taking the Braves, this time, because of the pitcher the Phils are handing the ball to.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - So yes, my key is on Aaron Nola, who has had a strange season, to say the least. He most certainly looked like an All-Star early in the season, but now he is 0-5 with a 10.61 ERA over his last seven starts. If you've seen him, you know his command has been an issue, particularly keeping the ball down in the strike zone, and tonight that will spell trouble.
BOTTOM LINE is - We're talking about the bottom of the National League East, and the Braves would love to save some face by knocking off the bottom feeders whenever they can. The Braves have won two straight - in Minnesota - while the Phils have lost two in a row and seven of 10.
4* BRAVES
Brad Wilton
Thursday comp play is the Red Sox behind David Price on the Run Line to dump the Angels.
I will be honest, there simply is not a lot out there on this Thursday card that appeals to me, and this freebie is more of a hunch play than anything, as I feel that Price is ready to turn in a dominant performance in Anaheim tonight.
When these teams met to start July in Boston, the Sox took 2 of 3, but all 3 saw plenty of runs on the scoreboard.
Price's ERA is over 4, so assume he will give up a few, but I am also going to assume that the Boston bats will hit Jered Weaver and his over 5 season ERA.
Back and forth we go tonight in Orange County, but it is Boston that ends up winning it by 2 runs or more.
1* BOSTON -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Red Sox and Angels to go Over the posted total.
These teams played 3 games in Boston to start the month of July, and the scores were, 5-4, 21-2, and 10-5. Obviously, the bats were connecting in that series, as 2 of the 3 did go well Over the posted price.
More offense tonight when David Price and Jered Weaver take the mound.
Price owns a season ERA of 4.51, while Weaver's season ERA is even higher at 5.32.
5 of Boston's last 8 games have played Over the total, while Los Angeles is on a 6-2-2 Over run their last 10 games played.
Look for plenty of crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight, as Boston and L.A. play Over the total.
3* BOSTON-L.A. ANGELS OVER
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +129 over SAN FRAN
Johnny Cueto is Johnny Cueto and deserves to be favoured. Cueto was his usual self for most of 2015 but was a major disappointment after he was traded to Kansas City. He posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts there, which had some people questioning whether he just lost it for some reason. Cueto has rebounded from his rough finish to last year, with all of his skills looking back to normal through 20 starts this season. His velocity is down some, but he's getting more whiffs than ever on his change-up, and should continue to rack up his fair share of strikeouts. He comes in with a near perfect 13-2 record, a 2.53 ERA and a BB/K split of 28/128 in 142 frames. There is no question that he’s capable of dominating. Cuteo is not the problem here.
The problem is the Giants, a team that has dropped nine of 11 with only two victories over that span occurring against the Reds one time and the Yanks once. The Giants have lost to stating pitchers, Dan Straily, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Cashner, Luis Perdomo and even Edwin Jackson recently among others so of course they can also lose to Tanner Roark and the Nationals too.
Aside from the Nationals being in better form than the Giants are, Tanner Roark is completely legit. Roar has a BB/K split of 38/110 in 130 innings. He was a -240 favorite in his last start against San Diego and now he goes from that big a price to being an underdog against a struggling club. Roark has an elite 52% groundball rate but what is even more impressive is his overall profile that shows very few balls are hit hard off him. You take a 52% groundball rate with an above average K-Rate and throw in one of the lowest line-drive marks (18%) in the game and you have a starter that has a chance to dominate and win just about every time he takes the mound. That's good enough for us.
SPORTS WAGERS
EDMONTON -9½ over Winnipeg
The Eskimos don't have many friends left in the marketplace after blowing a 25-point second-half lead last week and falling to the Tiger-Cats, 37-31. Lost in the result was all the good the Eskies did. Mike Reilly tossed his fourth straight 350-yard passing game and receiver Adarius Bowman had his fourth 100-yard receiving game of the season. The Eskimos dominated the first 35-minutes and looked to be on their way to an easy cover but then they quit. When the dust settled the Eskies were locked in another one score battle, their fourth one in all four games this season. The Eskimos have put up big points all year and lead the league in total team passing yards (1580), are second in total points (127) and second in passing touchdowns (10). The Eskies have been hammered by the local media this week for quitting against Hamilton with one paper saying “embarrassing” doesn't even capture the magnitude of this failure.” The problem has been Edmonton’s defense, which is taking all the heat so expect a much stronger performance this week. If the Bombers go down early, don't expect the Eskimo D to let them off the hook. The Eskies are too talented to be hanging around with the likes of Winnipeg and Saskatchewan and now they’re in a very foul mood. Thursday can’t get here soon enough for the Eskimos and they couldn’t have handpicked a riper opponent to take their frustrations out on.
We knew the clock was ticking on Drew Willy after head coach Mike O'Shea gave him a vote of confidence last week. The hook came during Winnipeg's 33-18 loss to the Stampeders in a game that wasn't even that close. Enter the often injured Matt Nichols, the former Eskimo backup who played just ok in garbage time relief last week. There's going to be a lot of pressure on Nichols to turn it around but these Bombers have much bigger problems than the starting quarterback. They did not address their weak offensive line. That line has given up a league worst 16 sacks in five games this season. Winnipeg's problems on offense has overshadowed a toothless defense that has given up more than 300 yards passing in all five games they've played this season. They've been unable to create pressure on the quarterback with a league worst 10 sacks in those five games. Finally, the Bombers lead the league in turnovers and they are catching the Eskimos at a bad time. This is the second time this season that Winnipeg has been a big dog on the road (the first was a 36-22 loss in Calgary where they failed to cover) and given the Eskimos recent inability to cover a game, we can understand how these +9½ points may look tempting. Beware, because when it goes bad for the Bombers it gets ugly. Winnipeg has been blown out in their last three trips to Edmonton with the Eskies easily covering double digits. Now Winnipeg Coach Mike O’Shea is pushing the panic button in order to save his job by benching the superior Drew Willy in favor of the inferior Matt Nichols. That isn’t likely to end well.
Bob Balfe
White Sox +115
Chris Sale is coming back from his little fit last week and after suspension will want to get right back on track. This guy is a great pitcher and he does very well when he faces the Cubs. Lackey has struggled against the White Sox and I expect Sale to get back in the good graces of his club tonight.