Free Picks for Thursday, July 6th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
San Francisco at Detroit
Play: Detroit -110
I must admit there might not be anyone more surprised at the mini-resurgence of Anibal Sanchez for the Tigers since his recall from the minors. Sanchez has had a fine career, but he really looked like he was completely shot early in the season. This isn’t to suggest the veteran righty has been an ace since his return. But Sanchez has been decent in three straight starts to be sure, and I think he’s got a good chance to maintain that effectiveness here against the Giants.
I’m not sure what to make of San Francisco’s Johnny Cueto. It’s definitely not like Cueto is getting lit up. But the more I see him, the more I’m becoming convinced that he’s getting by more on his savvy than his stuff right now. Walks are creeping up, K’s are trending down. Hard hit rate is really high by Cueto standards, home run rate is much higher than his career ratio. Long story short, I’m not afraid to bet against Cueto anymore, and believe me when I tell you this is a cat I’ve avoided fading for several years.
The Giants have played what is probably the best baseball of the season recently. But I made the Tigers a little more of a favorite than they’re currently priced, and I favor the Motowners as far as situational material is concerned. I’ll side with Detroit as the Thursday free selection.
Marc Lawrence
San Francisco at Detroit
Play: Detroit -111
Edges - Tigers: Sanchez 3.12 ERA and 0.87 WHIP this season… Giants: Cueto 0-2 career team starts in this park, and 3-5 team starts in day games this season. With the Giants playing a 10 AM body clock start game and just 1-7 on Thursdays this season, we recommend a 1* play on Detroit in this get-away game for San Francisco.
Ben Burns
Padres vs. Indians
Play: Over 9½
Dinelson Lamet (3-2, 5.35 ERA) looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after coming off his best start of his career, going seven scoreless against the Braves on Thursday. I’m not reading too much into one decent outing though as it was in fact the first time that Lamet exceeded six innings of work this year. Previous to this game Dinelson had been rocked for 14 earned runs spanning two starts. Dinelson’s strikeout numbers are decent so far, but he’s just 1-1 with a 7.07 ERA on the road. Josh Tomlin (4-8, 6.07) gave up four earned runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to Detroit on Saturday (two of those hits were home runs.) Tomlin has been plagued by the long-ball this year, having already served up 17 of them to this point (note that he’s a poor 3-6 with a 6.55 ERA at home as well.) Everything points to a slug-fest in this one, consider the over.
Teddy Davis
Baltimore at Minnesota
Play: Baltimore +137
We saw what happened last night when the Twins become big favorites, they lost with their ace on the mound. We are simply seeing a huge over reaction because the Orioles just got swept by the Brewers. Berrios is certainly an exciting young pitcher to watch but is he really that much better than Bundy is better at all? I'm not buying it. I totally expect Bundy to return back to form here as the Twins are't the greatest offensive team
Mike Anthony
Oakland vs. Seattle
Play: Seattle -144
The Mariners this year are average, to say the least. How many other teams can give up so many easy runs in a series? Top to bottom Seattle have a decently skilled lineup in the league, and with their big righty pitcher in their pen - and his sinker is more than enough here. Seattle has not been unstoppable by any means - but their team is good enough to put down Oakland at home. As far as a better lineup, you can argue the A's are better at the power game - but that's it. Oakland have put up a poor lineup in the AL West all year long, with just a .240 avg Oakland and will continue to struggle with their batting skills. And their pitching rotation isn't even close to good enough. Oakland is only 27th in the majors with their dismal avg - this is not the team to play here, to bounce those numbers upwards.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston vs. Toronto
Play: Toronto +145
We will take a shot with a nice dog in Toronto tonight. The Jays are off an upset win in NY on Wednesday. Looking art the database we see that road favorites of -140 or more that were road favorites last night like Houston have lost 75% of the time since 2004 vs an opponent off a road dog win at +140 or higher scoring 5+ runs like Toronto. Mcculers for the Astros is 0-3 in Road July starts and Liriano through all his recent struggles is 9-2 in home July starts. Toronto has won 5 of the last 6 here at home vs Houston. The Astros are a pedestrian 13-10 vs leftys this year.
Will Rogers
Cincinnati vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
The set-up: The Rockies began the week coming off a 1-8 road trip, as well as 10 losses in their previous 11 games. The good news was that up first this week were the struggling Reds and the Rockies have won two of the first three of this four-game series. If Colorado is to begin putting its current slump behind them, winning this afternoon at Coors Field is a must. Wednesday's 5-3 triumph was only their third victory in the team's last 14 games but the Rockies still won a 6 1/2 game lead for the final wild card spot in the NL. As for the Reds, last night's loss was the team's 16th in its last 19 road contests, leaving the Reds 13-28 away from home on the season.
The pitching matchup: Sal Romano (0-1 & 6.00 ERA) gets the nod for the Reds and Tyler Chatwood (6-9 & 4.41 ERA) for the Rockies. Romano made his first major league start way back on April 16, lasting just three innings while giving up three runs (two earned) on three hits in losing 4-2 at home to Milwaukee. He has gone 1-3 with a 3.06 ERA in nine outings at Triple-A Louisville this season and said he is much more comfortable ahead of Thursday's outing, the second start of his MLB career. "I think I'm a lot more relaxed and not as nervous. I want to feel like I belong," Romano told reporters. "I'm not going to try to overthrow. I will work my 93-95 (miles per hour); that's when my sinker is at its best. I still have 96, 97 and 98 in the tank, and there are certain times I can use that." Chatwood made 27 starts for Colorado last year (12-9 & 3.87 ERA) and will make his 18th start of 2017, here. However, he has dropped consecutive starts (7.45 ERA) and is win-less in his last four outings (he's 0-2 and the team 1-3). Chatwood is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts against the Reds (team is 1-2).
The pick: There is no avoiding the fact that Chatwood has struggled at Coors Field in 2017 (2-4 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in seven starts) but the Reds are a very poor road team (see above), Even after going 3-11 their last 14, the Rockies remain MLB's third-best moneyline team at plus-$1547. That's an indication this team is still pretty good, something one can't say about the Reds. Throw in that Romano ,makes just his second career start (after a poor first one back in April) and I'll side with the Rockies to take this one and earn a much-needed series win.
Big Al
Atlanta vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
With both Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg making the NL All-Star roster, there was little chance that a third Nationals starter would be on there as well. But the fact of the matter is that LH Gio Gonzalez's statistics in the first half would make him a shoe-in for his third Mid-summer Classic selection were he a member of almost any other team. So we'll consider this a snub as there are few starters in the game right now - much less the NL - that can claim better numbers than Gonzo's 7-3 record and 2.77 ERA in a full 17 starts. He'll look to show everyone who cares that he belongs in Miami next week with this home start against division-rivals Atlanta. Even a no-hitter wouldn't have gotten Braves' RHP Mike Foltynewicz to the All-Star game and that's exactly what he almost did in his last start. The 25-year-old didn't give up a hit to the Oakland A's until Matt Olson smacked a lead-off homer in the ninth inning. So Folty had to settle for an eight-inning, one-hitter which is not too shabby. But there is quite a difference between the A's roster and that of the Nationals and Foltynewicz will be hard-pressed to duplicate anything close to that tonight in DC. The Braves are 15-38 in the last 53 meetings.
Jim Feist
Orioles at Twins
Pick: Under
Minnesota is a big park and a struggling Baltimore offense is in town. Baltimore is on a 7-1 run under the total and they have a good arm going in Dylan Bundy, with a winning road record and a 2.57 ERA against Minnesota this season. Minnesota is on an 8-3 run under the total at home and has Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.44 ERA) on the hill, with a 2.51 ERA at home. Minnesota is on a 1507 run under the total and the Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
Power Sports
Houston vs. Toronto
Pick: Houston -158
The Astros figure to be a pretty popular pick Thursday as Lance McCullers Jr is off a rare loss in his last start. The team hasn't lost since McCullers last start, opening 4-0 here in July as they continue to be "#1 w/ a bullet" in terms of record (58-27) and run differential (+142) in the American League. In fact, McCullers last start marks the team's only loss over a seven game stretch where they've outscored the opposition 62-37. Thirteen of those runs allowed came in the game McCullers started, but note he was charged for only three of them.
McCullers comes in still sporting a fantastic 2.69 ERA and 1.069 WHIP for the year. He's allowed 1 ER or less in six of his past nine starts, giving up just one home run in that timespan. Given that the Astros offense just got done scoring 26 runs in a two-game sweep of Atlanta (remember, that's w/o the DH too!), McCullers may not even need to be at his best tonight. Houston has won 20 of its past 23 road games by the way and has the best road record in all of baseball.
For the first time in nearly a month, Toronto has won B2B games. They did so by beating the slumping Yankees both Tuesday and Wednesday, yesterday's win coming by a single run after blowing a 5-0 lead. Prior to the two victories, they'd lost five in a row, all here at home. Having Francisco Liriano on the bump is likely to bring their win streak to an end however, as he comes in w/ a 6.48 ERA and 1.56 WHIP his L3 starts. In two of those three starts, he allowed five runs, which would be far too many facing a team like the Astros.
Scott Rickenbach
Orioles vs. Twins
Play: Twins -138
The Twins Jose Berrios had a rare, tough outing his last time out but that was on the road. He is 3-1 at home this season with a 2.51 ERA and a minuscule 0.80 WHIP. The Twins are off of a tight 2-1 home loss yesterday and will bounce back here against the Orioles and a struggling Dylan Bundy. As regular followers know, I rarely play favorites in MLB as most of my selections are dogs and totals. However, this line has gone from as high as a -160 down to as low as the -135 range and this is exceptional line value to take Berrios at home. Note that Bundy has struggled overall in his last 4 starts as he has allowed 19 runs (18 earned) in 20 and 2/3 innings spanning those 4 outings. Also, Bundy has walked 7 batters in his last 12 innings on the road. Though the Twins lost yesterday, that followed a 4-1 run in Minnesota's last 5 home games. As for the Orioles, they've been anything but hot as their loss yesterday brought them to 1-5 in their last 6 games. Overall, Baltimore is 14-28 on the road this season! The Twins are 27-19 and +$9,600 in night games this season. Look for another win under the lights in this one!
Rocketman
Cincinnati vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado -1½
The Cincinnati Reds travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies on Thursday afternoon. Cincinnati is 36-48 SU overall this year while Colorado comes in with a 50-37 SU overall record on the season. Sal Romano is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA overall this year. Cincinnati is allowing 5.4 runs per game overall this year, 5.8 runs per game on the road this season and 6.2 runs per game in day games this year. Colorado is scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this year. Colorado is allowing only 4.1 runs per game in day games this season. Colorado is 80-62 last 3 years and 22-12 this year in day games. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado on the Run line today!
Brandon Lee
Red Sox vs. Rays
Play: Under 7½
I'm still recommending a play on the UNDER at 7, but would strongly consider laying a little extra juice to get that 1/2 run for some extra insurance, as it gets us over the key number of 7. Good chance these two teams don't even come close to the total. Boston will send out ace Chris Sale, who has been straight dealing of late, posting a 1.66 ERA over his last 3 starts. Sale hasn't allowed more than 4 hits in each of his last 4 starts and has a 1.94 ERA in 7 starts against division opponents. Tampa Bay sends out talented rookie Jacob Faria, who has had about as good as debut to his big league career as you could ask for, posting a 2.23 ERA in 5 starts. Should help Faria the Red Sox are coming in off a bad day at the plate, as they managed just 3 hits in yesterday's 2-8 loss to the Rangers.
Jimmy Boyd
Marlins vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -139
Miami has won the last two in the series and it's created some good value here on St Louis in the series finale Thursday. The Cardinals will have a massive edge on the mound here with Michael Wacha facing off against Tom Koehler. You have to look past Wacha's 4.16 ERA and 1.425 WHIP overall. He's 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 10 home starts. He also has a sizzling 1.69 ERA in his last 3 outings and owns a 1.82 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in 4 day starts.
Koehler doesn't even come close to those numbers. He's 1-3 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.775 WHIP in 9 starts. His last 3 outings have been especially poor, as he's posted a atrocious 13.50 ERA and 2.600 WHIP. The deepest Kohler has pitched in his last 5 starts is 5 1/3 innings. That's bad news for a struggling Marlins bullpen that had to put in a lot of work yesterday, as Volquez lasted just 4 innings.
Miami is just 21-46 in their last 67 road games after winning 2 of their last 3 and 9-29 in their last 38 road games after scoring 8 or more runs. Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 8-2 in Wacha's last 10 home starts against a team with a losing record.