Larry Wallace
Marlins vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -145
I like the Cardinals in this match-up against the Marlins. Wacha this year is 5-3 with a 4.16 ERA. Wacha is 1-0 in 2 career starts against the Marlins. Koehler is 1-3 with a 8.33 ERA. Miami is 3-14 in their last 17 games when Koehler takes the mound. St Louis is 4-1 in their last 5 games with Wacha pitching.
Doc's Sports
Orioles vs. Twins
Play: Twins -137
The Orioles have not been very good lately. They are just 15-27 in their last 42 games overall and this team has fallen off in a big way. They are now below .500 and 7.5 games back in the East. The Twins are above .500 and they are just two games back in the Central. The Orioles are just 7-21 in their last 28 road games and they have struggled in a big way. The Twins haven’t been very good at home lately. But they are 6-1 in their last seven games against a right-handed starter and they are 4-1 at home against a team that is below .500 on the road. The Twins have been undervalued all season long and I think they will get the job done here.
Dave Essler
Padres +1.5 -125
I wish the Indians had won last night, or this would be a bit bigger. But, give the Padres a DH and look what happens. If the beat Bauer (they did) then they can beat Tomlin, who's quite pedestrian this season. I do like Lamet quite a bit. He'l strike people out. He can give up some fly balls, as I remember well when I took the "over" and cashed when he pitched against the Tigers. He gave up several 400' outs, but TBH I think if that DOES happen the Padres should still score plenty here, and because of that lean over as well.
Other stuff
I like the Fish RL this afternoon, mostly as a fade of Wacha, who has become quite over valued in my opinion.
The market this morning likes the Pirates. I don't like Kuhl THAT much as a road favorite and think that line might come back towards the Phillies at some point.
It's hard not to look at Arizona/Ray at that price, at least the RL.
I know it's the Astros who are about .700 on the road, and I hate fading them - but the Jays RL at home seeing as how Houston played late and traveled might be an option. Toronto flew home, but only from New York and played early in the day.
Lean over in the Orioles/Twins game. Berrios seems in full regression mode and it's the Orioles pitching.
Eric Schroeder
Taking a shot here with the Arizona Diamondbacks, as the road underdog against the Los Angeles Dodgers. I lost with the Snakes last night as the comp play, but came damn close with that $2-plus pup losing 1-0.
And since I don't play my free plays, and they're nothing more than an opinion play, I say the value is with the underdog once again. After all, when everything looks like it points to one side, the suckers usually fall for it. Last night the suckers fell for the Dodgers Run Line, as the Diamondbacks kept it close with Zack Godley pitching well.
Tonight I'll side with the National League West's second-place team, as the Diamondbacks are 20-20 on the road, they've won six of 11 and they're chasing the division-leading Dodgers with a vengeance.
I'll list both, too, as I think Robbie Ray will hang with Rich Hill.
Take Arizona as my free play tonight.
1* DIAMONDBACKS
Jack Brayman
Tuesday my free winner was on the Angels of Anaheim, and I lost. Wednesday I took the other side, and lost with the Minnesota Twins on the Run Line against the Halos. Go figure. Good thing I don't care much about free picks.
Tonight I'll take a look at the Houston Astros, over the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Astros, with the best record in baseball, will go into Toronto and spray the ball across the field with their dangerous lineup. Houston ranks No. 1 in the majors with a .287 batting average, while their 490 runs scored also are atop the bigs.
Meanwhile, Houston starter McCullers makes his final start before heading to Miami for his first All-Star Game selection, and I think he will be motivated for this game. In his two starts since coming off the disabled list he has allowed four runs and 10 hits over 10.1 innings in that span. I suspect he'll have no problem neutralizing a Blue Jays lineup that has the league's seventh-worst batting average at .244.
Liriano, meanwhile, is coming off back-to-back starts of six innings for the first time this season, which is a positive. But the negative is he's allowed five earned runs in two of his past three outings and continues to struggle with command. The hard-hitting Astros will chase him early.
2* ASTROS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Thursday's free play winner is the Red Sox on the Run Line over the Rays.
To say that Chris Sale's arrival in Boston has been a success would be an understatement! Sale has been everything the BoSox could have hoped for, as he enters this game riding a 3-start win streak, and he is 7-1 the last 8 times he has gone to the mound.
All 7 of his wins have been by 3 runs or more, so backing him on the Run Line tonight against Tampa Bay is a no-brainer!
Jake Faria will counter for the host, and he has only pitched 32-plus innings total this season. True, he has been solid for the Rays, but he will need to be better than that tonight in his first effort against the division-leaders who have won 8 of the last 11 series meetings.
Remember, Sale is already 2-0 in as many starts this season against Tampa, with only 4 runs and 5 hits allowed in 24 innings worked against them. Sale has also K'd 24 along the way.
Stick with Sale and the Sox on the Run Line for Thursday.
4* BOSTON -1.5
Chris Jordan
Bad time for the Baltimore Orioles to be visiting the Twin Cities. The Minnesota Twins, who have been dominating on the road, will look to close the first half of the season with a home streak and can do so by taking advantage of a struggling Baltimore lineup.
Minnesota is hanging tough in the American League Central, sitting in third place just 1.5 games back of the Cleveland Indians, and just a game behind the second-place Kansas City Royals. The Twins are 43-41 on the year, but just 18-26 at home, so winning this series would be huge.
The Orioles have disappeared from revelance, having lost three in a row after a 4-0 setback yesterday in Milwaukee. They're 15-28 on the road and are now in fourth place in the American League East.
Take Minnesota in this series lid-lifter, and don't bother listing pitchers. It won't matter and it is not always imperative to list pitchers daily.
3* TWINS
Jeff Benton
Thursday freebie is the Giants over the Tigers in their early afternoon series finale.
Why not?
San Francisco held on last night for the win at Comerica Park, as the Giants continue to play solid baseball heading to the break.
Bruce Bochy's club has now won 7 of their last 8 games, while the Tigers are just 3-4 over their last 7 played, and just 5-12 overall for their last 17 games.
Johnny Cueto has found himself as well, as the righty has gone 1-1 over this last 3, but more importantly, he has given the team a chance at the win in all 3, as he has allowed 6 runs in 19 innings pitched.
Anibal Sanchez is making his 4th start this season, and thus far he has not factored in a decision, but sports an ERA that is a smidge over 6.
Going to ride the hot team to continue to hum. Giants leave town with the win.
2* SAN FRANCISCO
Allen Eastman
Orioles vs. Twins
Play: Twins
The Orioles have not been very good lately. They are just 15-27 in their last 42 games overall and this team has fallen off in a big way. They are now below .500 and 7.5 games back in the East. The Twins are above .500 and they are just two games back in the Central. The Orioles are just 7-21 in their last 28 road games and they have struggled in a big way. The Twins haven’t been very good at home lately. But they are 6-1 in their last seven games against a right-handed starter and they are 4-1 at home against a team that is below .500 on the road. The Twins have been undervalued all season long and I think they will get the job done here.
Scott Rickenbach
Padres vs. Indians
Play: Padres +180
The Padres have won 3 straight games including 2 straight over the Indians. That said, everyone is backing Cleveland here and figuring that there is no way that San Diego could possibly sweep the Tribe in Ohio. However, in typical contrarian fashion I will gladly fade the masses here but it is certainly not without good reason! The Padres are starting Dinelson Lamet and he has been solid in 5 of his 7 starts including 3 straight. In fact, his numbers over his last 3 starts are phenomenal with only 11 hits and 2 walks allowed in 19 innings while striking out 25 batters! Lamet is very likely to outduel the struggling Josh Tomlin here. The Indians right-hander has been awful over his last 5 starts. Tomlin has given up 21 runs (20 earned) on a ridiculous 41 hits in just 22 and 2/3 innings. Look for the "hit parade" versus Tomlin to continue here as Cleveland drops to 2-9 in his last 11 starts. The fact is that the Indians have been a money burner as a big favorite this season. Cleveland, as home fave of -175 to -250 has destroyed bankrolls this season with a 2-7 record costing their backers $12,800 at $1K per game. By the way, the Indians are an ugly 2-11 in interleague games this season! The Padres are 3-0 their last 3 with Lamet on the mound while Cleveland is 0-3 their last 3 with Tomlin on the mound. Combined 6-0 run tested here with tremendous line value on the underdog Padres.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati -1½ +250 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
15-19 + 28.65 units
Houston -1½ +108 over TORONTO
Francisco Liriano has three quality starts in 13 tries this year. He also has a 5.66 ERA to match his 5.75 xERA. What we’re seeing with Liriano is a resurfacing of his control issues (34 walks in 62 innings), along with a lofty hr/f. Now his groundball rate is following the decline of his other skills. Liriano’s groundball rate is now down to 34% and it was 30% in his last start.
The Blue Jays flirted with .500 for a few weeks but .500 stopped responding to their texts and unfriended them on Facebook too. A series win in New York is not going to prevent us from fading the Blue Jays in this series, especially in the opener where Lance McCullers figures to dominate. McCullers’ brings his filthy and near unhittable stuff into this game. He has 103 K’s in 87 innings but that’s not even the most impressive stat in his profile. Lance McCullers’ has a 64% groundball rate, which is the highest in the game among starters with 60 or more innings and that’s not the best statistic in his profile either. Since returning from injury three games ago and covering 17 innings, McCullers has a 2% line-drive rate. That may not even seem possible over three games but it’s a fact. Over that same three-game stretch, McCullers’ groundball rate is a ridiculous 75%. Lance McCullers was dominating before his injury so it’s difficult to determine how long he was pitching in discomfort. His ERA/xERA split of 2.69/2.64 is also tops in the game. Healthy now, McCullers is putting up numbers that this league has never seen before and we’re thrilled to get him at this venue spotting 1½ runs and taking back a small number.
Oakland +132 over SEATTLE
Judging by his history, Sam Gaviglio's current control and K-rates would seem to represent the best-case scenario for him and there's reason to question whether a 63% first-pitch strike rate, while good, is enough to support his elite control (16 walks in 53 frames) and whether or not he can maintain it. Dude has a weak strikeout rate with just 31 K’s in 52 frames. Four of his strikeouts came in his one relief appearance. Even if he does maintain his current skills, his xERA (4.54) says he's due for regression on his 3.48 ERA. Gaviglio’s high groundball rate is one skill working in his favor and could be a way for him to offset the limitations in the rest of his game. However, we've got a lot more minor league data that says Gaviglio isn't this good, and at 27 years old with a fastball that tops out at 88 mph, he's not exactly a top prospect. If you've been lucky enough to ride the wave of his early success, you may want to consider cashing in, as it sure looks like he's got more downside than upside for the remainder of 2017 and it’s not like the Mariners are killing it either. They were just swept by the Royals.
In need of a starter, the Athletics turned to Paul Blackburn last week to make his big league debut and he did not disappoint in a solid outing against the Braves. Blackburn was originally a supplemental first round pick of the Cubs in 2012 before being sent to the Mariners in July 2016. Seattle later traded him to Oakland in November 2016. He is all about command and control and works effectively down in the zone with three average offerings. Blackburn is a sinkerballer with a 90-93 mph fastball that he spots well. He’ll mix in a slightly above average curveball, hard slider, and below average change-up. He is able to repeat his simple delivery and slot which allows him to throw quality strikes. Blackburn runs into trouble when he can’t find consistency in either breaking pitch but that is happening less and less. Blackburn threw 6.0 innings of quality baseball in his first start. He walked just one batter, struck out four, did not allow a run and had a terrifically low 11% line-drive rate with a rock solid 50% groundball rate. That was just one start but these control artists with great location are proving to be more valuable than starters that wind up and let it rip at 96 MPH. This is a kid with good minor league numbers and a quiet confidence about him that is worth getting behind at this price against the struggling Mariners with an overvalued starter going.
Pittsburgh -1½ +136 over PHILADELPHIA
Chad Kuhl comes into this start with a 5.26 ERA. He also has a mere two victories in 16 starts so he’s not exactly endearing himself to the market here. The numbers are ugly but underneath the surface, Kuhl has been very good with the bases empty. That’s a good sign moving forward and strongly suggests that some modest improvement there would turn Kuhl and his strong 12% swing and miss rate into an attractive target. He’s also working with the best pitching coach in the business. That said, we don’t care who’s pitching for the Buccos because this is a straight fade against Jeremy Hellickson.
Coming off a successful 2016 campaign, Jeremy Hellickson started off the new season by allowing only six earned runs over his first five starts but it was all luck driven and things are getting even worse. Hellickson has never thrown especially hard, but his velocity has dropped off a bit and is now down to a career low mark, including an 89.3 MPH heater in May and June. That’s his normal now and he's generating very few swings and misses. This is hard to believe but Hellickson has struck out more than two batters just seven times in 17 starts and he faces pitchers every game. He's also giving up more fly balls than usual, leading to an awful 1.6 hr/9 so far. If he doesn't keep the ball down more, his issues with the long ball will likely continue, as he pitches half his games in a park that increases home runs from both sides of the plate (+7% LHB, +23% RHB). Hellickson has been extremely fortunate that so many of the balls in play against him are being turned into outs. His current hit rate will eventually prove to be unsustainable. Hellickson looked like a solid mid-rotation arm heading into the season, but the complete lack of whiffs to this point is very alarming and so is the jump in his fly-ball rate. A hit rate correction is forthcoming, we promise you that and when it happens, things are going to get out of hand real quickly. Jeremy Hellickson has an abhorrent 49 K’s in 96 innings and is riding a wave of extreme good fortune but he could seriously be the least skilled starting pitcher in the game. It’s time to attack that.
Arizona +135 over LOS ANGELES
The Dodgers continue to be overpriced almost every game and while we’re surely not going to fade them every game, we are going to pick our spots to try and take advantage. We just missed last night, taking back nearly 2-1 odds in a 1-0 loss. Now the Dodgers will send out Rich Hill and he’s been completely untrustworthy for most of the year.
Hill's skills have clearly taken a step back. He's had control issues for much of his career but cut down on the walks significantly in 2016. He's back to walking way too many batters this season, though. His velocity is down more than 1 MPH, he's generating fewer whiffs, and he's struck out only 24 percent of the batters he's faced, compared to 29 percent in 2016. Don’t get us wrong, as Hill’s K-rate is still outstanding. We’re merely pointing out that it’s trending in the wrong direction. He's allowing more fly-balls so far this season, and hasn't been as lucky on them staying in the park, thus resulting in an increase in home runs allowed. Hill has predictably missed time with blisters, but even when healthy, has failed to perform up to expectations. He's relied more on his fastball over the past month, with mediocre results, though his last two starts have been encouraging, with just four runs allowed and a 15/5 K/BB ratio across 12 innings. Hill offers upside, but he's topped five innings just once all season, and the combination of his poor control, a 4.43 xERA and questionable durability make him the second best pitcher on the mound here.
It’s time to sound the new pitch siren because Robbie Ray is throwing a curveball and so far, it looks like it matters. After a year spent wondering why his balls in play kept finding grass and suffering while his run-prevention marks failed to match his fielding-independent ones, Ray finally has the numbers you might expect for a guy who’s been among the top 15 in strikeout rate among starters since he entered the league. Ray has long had great velocity and a devastating slider but needed a third pitch because his changeup was fringe at best. That changeup never has had above-average movement or velocity gap, and Ray never trusted it enough to throw it even 10% of the time so color it ineffective or useless. The good news for Ray is that not everyone needs a changeup. Randy Johnson, now a special advisor to the club said “I learned a split-finger changeup.” What works for the goose doesn’t always work for the gander and now Ray is using his changeup less and has replaced those pitches (and more) with a new curveball.
Robbie Ray has a 128 K’s in 100 innings. He has been electric on the road this season with a 4-1 record and a 1.32 ERA/2.49 ERA/xERA split. He has an overall BAA of .202 but on the road it drops to an incredible .165. The Diamondbacks have won seven of his last eight starts and now the league’s best road pitcher on the surface and beneath it is being offered a price as if he’s Tom Koehler? Win or lose, this wager has nothing but value attached to it.
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL +3½ over B.C. Lions
Did you enjoy the Canada Day long weekend? If you're south of the border, perhaps you took Monday off and stretched the 4th of July into a nice four-day break. The long weekend was enjoyed by just about everyone, except the B.C. Lions who were forced to stay in Southern Ontario between road games even though there were six full nights between contests. Sure, it looked like the Lions' players were having fun sightseeing and learning more about the country they play in while taking in Canada Day festivities in Kingston but who wouldn't rather go home to recharge for a couple of days? Perhaps the Lions early season performance is what sparked the Leos brass to stay out east. B.C. has been very slow out of the gate in both of their games this season. The Lions needed another huge 4th quarter in Toronto last week after letting the Argos hang around for way too long. B.C. has a couple of glaring weaknesses early in the year and the biggest is on special teams. Lions' punter Ty Long might be averaging 44 yards per punt but he has been woefully inconsistent, struggling to make the big kick when the Lions need it. If you constantly give the other team a short field, it's bound to bite you where the sun does not shine. The other gaping hole was left on the Lions offensive line with Jovan Olafioye now suiting up for the Alouettes. In Olafioye's absence, the Lions have given up nine sacks in their first two games. We often talk about market perception and in that regard this market likes the Lions but does not like the Als. We’ll now try to take advantage of an inflated price.
Montreal cleaned house in the offseason but it's going to take more than a couple of games to get everyone on the same page. New quarterback Darian Durant's numbers might not look that spectacular on paper but this offense is getting better every week. A big plus has been the addition of the aforementioned Olafioye, who now anchors the Als O-Line. His impact cannot be ignored. The Als have not allowed a sack in the first two games of this season, a feat that has not been accomplished since the 2001 campaign, 16 long years ago! The quality of Montreal's O-Line play has allowed the Als to commit to the run and despite not scoring a rushing TD yet, Tyrell Sutton looks really, really good running behind this unit. Sutton is averaging over six yards-per-carry this season and his breakout game is coming. The Als rank second in the CFL in rushing yards. Despite the lack of points on the scoreboard, the Als could be 2-0. They went toe to toe with the Eskimos as a +8 point pooch and if not for a few careless penalties, it could have been a much different story. Montreal had a legit shot to win the game. A subjective blocking call went against the Als in the second half and they were forced to trade a sure touchdown for a field goal. That has been the story of their season so far but the more this team plays together, the better they are going to get. It's a work in progress but the Als are improving every week.
In this “what have you done for me lately” league, we've seen some major point-spread swings in this early season. The highly touted Lions went from a -4½ point home favorite in a loss to the Eskies in Week 1 to a small +1½ point dog on the road in Toronto in Week 2. Now, after a big win, the Lions are giving up -3½ on the road in Montreal. For the Als, they were a -6½ home fav over the Roughriders just two weeks ago, a +8 point dog in Edmonton and now the market has pushed this line to the point where the Als are taking back more than a field goal at home. While we’re calling the upset, the points are too good to pass up on and so we’ll play it accordingly.
Bruce Marshall
Milwaukee at Chicago
Pick: Milwaukee
Reputation, reputation, reputation. It's the only reason the Cubs continue to be asked to carry some of these ridiculous prices that are not warranted. Way more value on the side of Milwaukee, which is looking a bit real as it has pulled 3 1/2 games in front in the NL Central, and the Cubs are getting only so-so work the past couple of outings by reliever-turned-starter Mike Montgomery.
Larry Ness
Oakland vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle -143
Oakland has been a model of inconsistency,.enduring slides of six, four and six contests since June 7, with a pair of four-game winning streaks in between. They head to Seattle to play four games with the Mariners prior to the All Star break but have won back-to-back games over the White Sox Tuesday and Wednesday, giving them a 38-45 record.That leaves them in last-place in the AL West, a whopping 21 games back of Houston. Seattle gets set to host the A's for four games but has found winning elusive as of late at Safeco, as after losing 9-6 (in 10 innings) to the Royals last night, the Mariners have now dropped seven consecutive home games. Like Oakland, the 41-45 Mariners have almost no chance to catch the Astros (are currently 17 1/2 games out of first) but like almost all AL teams, still have an outside chance at a wild card berth in a muddled field. Seattle currently is just four games out of the second wild card spot but as noted, the field includes almost the entire AL.
A pair of rookies take the mound tonight, Paul Blackburn (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his second career start for Oakland and Sam Gaviglio (3-3, 3.48 ERA) will make his 11th appearance of 2017 (10th start) for Seattle. Blackburn made an impressive major-league debut this past Saturday against the Braves, although the A's fell 4-3. He allowed just a single unearned run on three hits over six innings, settling for a no-decision. Gaviglio will be making his 10th start of 2017 in this one but comes in win-less in his last three, going 0-2 (team is 1-2), despite allowing three runs or less each time. Gaviglio will be facing Oakland for the first time.
Not sure just what to make of Blackburn (just one previous start) but Gaviglio has proved himself, working at least five innings in each of his nine starts of his rookie season (Mariners are 6-3). Throw in the fact that the A's are 13-27 on the road (averaging just 3.92 RPG) and Seattle is the play.
BRAD DIAMOND
Milwaukee vs. Chicago
Pick: Milwaukee +154
The Brewers come into Chicago winners of three straight leading the Central by 3-1/2 games over their rival today? Who'd thought Milwaukee would be in first place at the break? Both starting hurlers (Davies and LHP Montgomery) have had problems in the series trying to achieve the late innings. However, the Brewers have done well on the road with Davies. They have hit well against LHP lately too. Historically the Cubs have the series edge at home but, Milwaukee is a tenacious unit and will look to overcome losing in game #1 to generate a positive visit while controlling the division.