DAVE COKIN
TORONTO AT BC
PLAY: BC -6
I played this game on Tuesday, and got a better number than this, but I still feel pretty good about the prospects of the Lions getting the win and cover at home.
There’s no value to be had here. BC was a dog in each of its first two games, and now they’re suddenly spotting nearly a touchdown. But the Lions have looked good out of the gate, and they should have loads of momentum heading into this battle.
I’m not impressed with what I’ve seen from the visiting Argonauts. Toronto managed to split its first two outings, but there has been plenty to find fault with. They definitely benefited from an early case of the jitters by Saskatchewan last week. The Roughriders were the team with the opening week bye, and let’s just say they were pretty bad at the start of their season debut against a team that already had a game under their belts.
I like the scheduling dynamics here. You’d think there would be a way to avoid this in a nine-ten league, but this is the second straight long trip west for Toronto, and that could definitely be aa disadvantage for the Argonauts.
Toronto made a deal this week to bolster their pass rush, and I expect them to put some pressure on BC QB Jonathan Jennings. I’ll admit I’ve got some concerns about the home team’s ability to get TD’s in this game, but Jennings has avoided mistakes in the early going. If he avoids turnovers tonight, he should be okay.
On the flip side, the Lions are looking good on defense. They’ll need to be sharp here as old pro Ricky Ray is off to a pretty efficient start and has already launched four touchdown passes.
I see this as a fairly even matchup on paper. But there’s no question the Lions are off to the better start and back to back long trips west for Toronto are a key factor for me. The number on this game is getting a bit on the high side, but I decided to go ahead and fire on BC minus the points.
Sleepyj
St Louis -1.5 +140
Cards will look to close this series out with a win here today..Losing this series does them no favors and salvaging a win here is crucial...They get Wainwright on the mound here today and that's a good thing..he is coming of a solid outing of 7 full with 0ER in his last home start...Pitt hasn't seen Wainwright in a good while so we might have a big advantage here..Cards are in the hunt for a WC birth, but the Pirates are closing the gap..Plenty of power in this cards lineup today facing rookie RHP Tyler Glasnow..A tough assignment here for Glascow..He has some decent numbers as he comes up, but it's never easy making a road start against a tough lineup. I like the Cards to close out the series with a convincing win with a RL cover for us.
Rob Vinciletti
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Indians -157
Cleveland was blasted by 10 runs last night but are 9-1 at home as a favoerite off a home loss scoring 2 or less runs, they have won 15 of 19 here if the totla is 8 to 8.5 and 6 of 7 on Thursdays. The Tribe score nearly 6 runs per game at home. The Yankees are 1-6 as a road dog off a road loss scoring 2 or less runs. Nova for New York has a 5.05 road era and is 0-3 with a 6.28 era in his last 3 starts. Bauer for Cleveland has won his last 3 with a solid 1.64 era and has a solid 2.96 era. Look for Cleveland to take the opener.
Stephen Nover
Atlanta vs. Chicago
Play: Atlanta +248
It's not often you can get better than 2-to-1 odds fading a team that is 5-12 in their last 17 games and has lost the last five times with their scheduled starting pitcher while backing a pitcher who has a career 0.57 ERA versus that team.
But that's the case with the Braves against the Cubs and 33-year-old Jason Hammel, who surrendered 10 runs and five homers in four plus innings during his last start this past Friday.
Hammel is 2-5 career-wise versus the Braves in 10 starts with a 5.77 ERA. Hammel is the weakest of the Cubs' five main starting pitchers.
Of course the reason for such a high price is Atlanta, the worst team in the majors. The Braves aren't playing well either having lost four in a row, including just having gotten swept three games on the road by the Phillies.
The Braves have scored the fewest runs, own the lowest batting average and also rank last in homers. They are pitching unheralded Lucas Harrell.
Hence, the big lay price on the Cubs. Harrell will be making his second start for the Braves. His first outing was highly successful - a 9-1 win over the Marlins and Jose Fernandez this past Saturday at home. Harrell allowed just one run on three hits in six innings with one walk and five strikeouts. That was his first big-league start in two years.
Harrell has experience pitching at Wrigley Field when he pitched for the Astros. He's made two starts there and holds an 0.57 ERA and a 2-0 record in four appearances versus the Cubs.
The Cubs sure can't be too excited about this game. It was supposed to be a day off for the Cubs today, but this is a makeup game. The Cubs have a bigger series looming Friday-Sunday when they play the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
This also marks the Cubs' 21st straight day of playing. Chicago is 1-6 in its last seven games so fatigue may be taking a toll so close to next week's All-Star break.
I know the Braves are a tough sell even at a nice value price like this. But I sure wouldn't be laying this kind of price on the Cubs right now, especially in this game.
Marc Lawrence
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -155
Edges - Cardinals: Adam Wainwright 3.16 ERA home as opposed to 6.23 ERA away this season, and 10-1 last 11 home team starts in this series, including 8-0 the last eight. Pirates: 8-12 last 20 games in this series, and 12-16 in day games this season. With Wainwright 60-27 as a favorite in his starts since 2012, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Red Dog Sports
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Pirates +147
We won with the Pirates as a premium play on Wednesday. Pittsburgh is a hot team led by Marte, Harrison and McCutcheon. Their relievers are keeping them in the game. St. Louis has been struggling and are 9 games under .500 at home. Adam Wainwright starts for the Cards but I liketaking the hot underdog at +147.
Bob Harvey
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Indians -155
The Indians look to get back on the winning track when they host the Yankees in the opener of a four-game series. The Tribe and Trevor Bauer (-155) are moneyline favorites over Ivan Nova. The total is 8.5.
The Yankees (41-43, 37-47 RL) fell to 18-25 away from home and 2-4 on its current 10-game road trip after dropping a 5-0 decision to the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday. The Indians (51-33, 46-38 RL) saw their 13-game home winning skein come to an end with a 12-2 loss to the Tigers.
The pitching matchup features a pair of righthanders who were once the top prospects in their respective organizations. Nova (5-5, 5.06 ERA) is coming off a solid performance against San Diego, allowing one run on four hits in 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision on Saturday. He’s split a pair of career decisions versus Cleveland, with his most recent effort resulting in a loss after permitting three runs on six hits in five innings.
Bauer (7-2, 3.02 ERA) is enjoying the best season of his big league career. In his last outing he scattering two hits over five shutout innings of relief in Cleveland's 2-1 victory in 19 innings over Toronto on Friday. Bauer is 4-0 in his last eight outings but has struggled against the Yanks posting a 1-3 record with an ERA of 4.78.
Matt Josephs
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Pirates +143
Tyler Glasnow makes his major league debut on Thursday afternoon for the Pirates. Glasnow is 7-2 with a 1.78 ERA in 17 starts for triple-A giving up just 57 hits in 96 innings. The righty has 113 strikeouts to 52 walks. The Cardinals have a losing record at home right now and are not in the best offensive form so they may struggle with the youngster. Adam Wainwright is 7-5 with a 4.70 ERA in 17 starts for the Cards. He's slowly improving from his awful start to 2016. Wainwright allowed three runs in each of his two starts against the Pirates this season. Josh Harrison (7-18), Andrew McCutchen (14-48) and Gregory Polanco (3-6) all hit the righty hard. Pittsburgh is hitting .265 against right-handed starters this season and are playing good baseball right now. They are hitting .279 in day games with the Cardinals bullpen struggling as of late. This price is way too high for a hot shot rookie.
MMA OddsBreaker
Alberto Mina v Mike Pyle
Pick: Alberto Mina
Alberto Mina is not a finished product, but he's improved dramatically since he began training at King's MMA. His striking technique looked terrific against Yoshihiro Akiyama in his last fight, nearly finishing it in the second round. Mina's conditioning is not great, but hopefully that won't matter against Mike Pyle, a 40-year old veteran who's durability is a massive question mark. If Mina can connect with something solid in the first two rounds, he should be able to pick up a knockout victory at some point, and that's what I think will happen here.
Jim Feist
Yankees at Indians
Pick: Over
The Over is 7-1 in the Yankees last 8 road games. Ivan Nova is on the mound with a 5.06 ERA and a lot of problems. Nova has not had a June to remember. This month he has recorded just one quality start and has failed to complete six innings in any of his last three starts. The 29-year-old has allowed at least one home run in each of his last 10 starts, bringing his ERA to an inflated 5.32. He faces a Cleveland offense that is ninth in baseball in runs scored and the Over is 38-12-1 in the Indians last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Starter Trevor Bauer has an ERA a run higher at home than on the road and the Over is 44-21-2 in Indians last 67 home games. And the Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland.
BRANDON SHIVELY
Padres vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -132
I am going to take the L.A. Dodgers tonight as this line opened at Dodgers -160 and has been bet down to -132 to -140 at varying sportsbooks. The majority of the bets are coming in on the Padres which is rare in baseball as the majority is usually being bet on the favorite. So this game caught my eye and I did some research and feel this is a play that I will be putting a 1 unit wager on.
Drew Pomeranz gets the start for the Padres. Pomeranz has been a pleasant surprise this season with a 2.65 ERA, but his advanced numbers have him with a 3.59 xFIP and I expect him to regress somewhat as the season progresses. He does not have a good track record against the Dodgers, going 0-3 his last three starts and is still looking for his first career win against them with a 0-4 record. Left handed hitters can get an edge on Pomeranz and the Dodgers should have four or possibly five left handed bats in the lineup tonight. He is walking 6.59 left handed batters per nine innings on the road. He has left stranded 90.9% of all left handed batters that reach base on the road. Those are numbers that are going to go down, it’s just a matter of time.
The three left handed bats that can do damage to Pomeranz are Corey Seager, Chase Utley, and Adrian Gonzalez. All three of these guys are swinging hot bats over the last week. The trio are all hitting above .333 the last seven days. Gonzalez and Seager are drawing walks. Utley is hitting for extra bases. Gonzalez leads the team with 8 RBI and is hitting .423 the last seven days. My point here is I think that the Dodgers best hitters are left handed batters and that is where Pomeranz weakness is and it can be exploited. Yasmani Grandal hits from the left side of the plate also and if he is the catcher tonight, then that’s a bonus as he is 3-for-8 with a homerun off Pomeranz. IF A.J. Ellis is behind home plate, then that’s okay also as he is 3-for-5 vs Pomeranz.
The wildcard for this game and the only reason this is not going to be a higher rated play for me is the Dodgers pitcher, Hyun-Jin Ryu. This will be his first MLB start since 2014, but he should pitch with confidence tonight as he has owned the Padres throughout his career ONLY giving up 1 run in 32.1 innings pitched with 32 strikeouts to only 5 walks. He is 2-0 in two career starts vs the Padres at Dodgers Stadium. Looking at Ryu’s minor league starts, he looked decent recording 23 strikeouts to only 1 walk. His last start he went 6 innings giving up 5 hits and 2 runs. Ryu is expected to throw about 80 pitches tonight which leads to the Dodgers bullpen which has been solid lately and is much better than the Padres pen. The Dodgers bullpen has a 1.38 ERA over the last seven days. Chris Hatcher blew the game yesterday for the Dodgers and I can almost guarantee Hatcher won’t pitch tonight as that he has appeared in two consecutive games. On a sidenote, Hatcher has given up 8 home runs in 37 IP and appears to be the only weak link in the Dodgers bullpen. Closer Kelly Jansen has been lights out this year with 47 strikeouts in only 35.2 IP with only 5 walks.
Some trends also caught my eye: The Padres are 5-17 this season (0-7 on the road) when the total is 7 or less. They are also 14-21 off a win, which means they lose 60% of the time after they win a game. The Padres are simply just not that good of a team that knows how to win. The Dodgers are 21-7 (75%) their last 28 home games. Having lost two straight to the Orioles, averages are on their side tonight pointing to a win. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15 which is impressive to me seeing they beat good pitchers and gives me more confidence for this game. Long term, the Dodgers are 23-5 in Ryu’s L28 starts vs a team with a losing record and the Dodgers have won 71% of the last 28 home meetings in this series.
JIMMY BOYD
Nationals +109
Washington is showing some great value here as an underdog against the Mets on Thursday. The Nationals have been a strong road team (24-20) and very good against division opponents (27-13). New York is just 18-19 against fellow NL East opponents, including a 3-6 mark against the Nationals this season.
The Mets will send out veteran Bartolo Colon, who is 7-4 with a 2.91 ERA in 16 starts, but I give the edge here on the mound to Washington. The Nationals will send out talented youngster Lucas Giolito, who will be making his second big league start. His first came against the Mets and he gave up just 1 hit in 4 shutout innings. Don't let the 4 innings scare you, as the start was cut short due to a rain delay. The other big key here is Washington has the much better offense and come in swinging it well with 10+ hits in 5 of their last 7 games.
Nationals are 14-3 in their last 17 against the NL East, 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring 5 or more runs and 15-6 in their last 21 off a win. Mets are 3-7 in Colon's last 10 starts against the NL East.
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +9 over HAMILTON
The Blue Bombers were down 36-7 in Calgary last week before most people watching turned it off and went to bed. What happened next is that the Bombers came within one pass of covering at the Stamps 20-yard line in the final seconds. The final score was 36-22 but those last two TD’s by Winnipeg could be considered “garbage time” points. The Blue Bombers are now 0-2 after looking awful against Montreal in Week 1 and worse for three quarters against Calgary in Week 2. Yes indeed, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers look disturbingly familiar to the Bombers teams' of the past that perfected losing. Any shine the Blue Bombers had in the market before the season started is long gone now. Winnipeg’s stock is the lowest of all nine CFL clubs, which once again makes us buyers at an inflated price.
The Blue Bombers defense was torched last week to the tune of giving up 200 yards on the ground and 307 yards through the air. It was ugly and the players are taking a lot of heat from the local media because of it. They are taking even more heat from their coaches. We see it all the time, that being a big response to a humiliating effort and that’s what is likely from the Bombers defense here. Furthermore, Winnipeg can put up points. They have completed 73% of its passes thus far. They put up 361 yards through the air in Calgary. They had 28 first downs to the Stamps 29. Defensively, the Bombers do not have to deal with Bo Levi Mitchell here; instead they’ll deal with the much lesser Jeremiah Masoli.
Hamilton whacked the flat Argonauts in Week 1. They got whacked at home in Week 2 by the Lions. Somewhere in between that is the real Tiger-Cats but at the end of the day, they cannot be recommended spotting near double digits with Masoli running the offense. Masoli has thrown just five TD’s in nine games in his CFL career. He also has five picks over that same span. Playing in a league that gives you points for missing a FG, Masoli and the Tabbies scored three points last week. A lot of folks that watched Hamilton crap the bed last week will attribute that poor showing to extreme wind conditions at Tim Horton’s Field. While that does have some validity, the Lions played in the same conditions and scored 28 points while passing for 250 yards. Even in its 42-20 win over the Argos in Week 1, Hamilton passed for just 20 more yards than Toronto did. With Masoli running the offense, the most the Tiger-Cats have outgained any opponent was by 35 yards with the exception of the Argos in Week 1 this season and even that wasn’t by a wide margin.
The Bombers have an edge at QB with Drew Willy here. They are absolutely poised to respond after a very lackluster effort last week. They are a desperate team with nothing to lose that will leave nothing on the table. The Hamilton Tigercats have shown over and over again that with Jeremiah Masoli at the helm, they cannot be trusted to win, let alone cover a margin like this one. An upset is absolutely possible while a cover is very likely. Take the points.
Toronto +6½ over B.C. LIONS
Ricky Ray knocked the rust off with a two-touchdown performance in Regina last week. The vet was a little slow out of the gate in Week 1 but we'll chalk that up to a lack of preseason action, as he took just three snaps in one exhibition outing. So far this season, Ray has thrown for 468 yards with a 67.2% completion percentage and a 4-1 touchdown to interception ratio. Those four touchdowns are good for second in the CFL. Ray is surrounded by offensive weapons including Vidal Hazelton who has caught TD passes in consecutive weeks and is tied for the league lead with three majors. The Boatmen have won their last two trips to B.C. Place as a money line dog, which is the same spot they find themselves in this week against an undefeated and overvalued Lions’ squad.
The Leos won big last week in Hamilton but we're not putting much stock into that game because the Tigercats pulled a complete no-show. Despite that, the game was still in doubt heading to the fourth. Jonathan Jennings might be a great athlete but he's not a reliable quarterback. He's completing just 58% of his passes and has just one TD toss this season and it came in garbage time last week. The Lions offensive strategy has been to lob bombs to their receivers and if it’s not there then Jennings will run. The more film teams’ get on this guy the tougher it's going to be for him. What this market has quickly forgotten was B.C’s unimpressive showing in their Week 1 win versus Calgary. The Lions could not move five yards for the first 52 minutes of that game. The Lions would be 1-1 had the Horsemen not missed a late chip-shot field goal. B.C. dominated the Ti-cats last week in a game many saw on the Canada Day holiday. A whooping like that stands out in the box scores but we're not buying it. The Lions were a dog in both of their games this season and now they are being asked to spot nearly a converted touchdown. We get the better quarterback in Ricky Ray and we also get a generous amount points because of the overreaction to B.C.’s win in Hamilton last week and its 2-0 record.
Note: We are going to wait on this one before pulling the trigger. There has been some unusual line movement here, as this number started out at -4 and is now up to -6½. We suspect it may even go to -7 and if that is the case, we will certainly jump in. However, if the line moves back in Toronto’s direction, we are very likely going to sit this one out. Switching gears and playing B.C. is also an option depending on the line movement. Game goes late tonight so we will update this in plenty of time.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +128 over ST. LOUIS
The Pirates rallied again last night for their sixth consecutive come from behind victory. The last time they rallied in six straight was 33 years ago. Pittsburgh has now won seven in a row and nine of 11. The Pirates are scoring runs in bunches and they have a great chance to keep it going here against Adam Wainwright.
Wainwright brings a 4.70 ERA into this start but he has been much better since the beginning of June with an ERA of 3.13. Still, his velocity is down a tick to 90.1 MPH and he’s pitching under duress often with a little too much traffic. A few too many hard-hit balls (30%) doesn’t bode well either. The Pirates are very familiar with Wainwright while the Cardinals have never faced young Tyler Glasgow. That, too, works in the Pirates favor.
Enter Pittsburgh's preseason #1 prospect, the preseason fourth-best starting prospect, and the preseason overall #8 prospect, 22-year-old Tyler Glasnow to make his major league debut here. The tall (6'8", 225-pound) right-hander has dominated the minor leagues for years, and whether this is a spot start or the beginning of the Glasnow era in Pittsburgh, there is little left for him to learn in the minors. Yes, his control continues to be an issue, though you could hardly tell in his WHIP because minor league batters simply cannot square up the bat against him (career .172 oppBA, and in Triple-A this year it's been the same: .176). He gets strikeouts in bushels and wipes out batters, so unless they get a free pass from him, they have little chance. That 4.9 BB’s/9 is worrisome, of course, but he can learn that in the majors as another tall strikeout pitcher once did in Hall of Famer Randy Johnson. Johnson, in his first four full seasons in the majors, put up BB’s/9 marks of 5.4, 4.9, 6.8 and 6.2 before it finally clicked in the 1993 season and he brought it down to 3.5. We may see a similar growth pattern with Glasnow where he gets strikeouts, and oppBA is not great, but the walks lead to occasional ugly innings, and then one day the control falls into place and he becomes the #1 starter he has the talent to achieve. Glasnow leads with a plus-plus fastball that can reach near triple digits. It has a good downhill tilt and late life with nice arm-side run. His curve is also above average, and his change-up is improving. Simply put, once the control falls into place, batters will have a handful trying to keep up. Until then, there will be growing pains. Minor league batters hope they don't see him again. In five minor league seasons, his ERA is 2.01 with a 1.07 WHIP and in 479.1 IP.
STATS: Indianapolis (AAA) – 17g, 17gs, 7-2, 1.78 ERA, 96.0 IP, 4.9 BB’s/9, 2.2, 10.6 K’s/9, 4 HR, .176 oppBA
Glasnow is a starter worth a look, especially when you consider that the Pirates can't wait to get back to the park.
Washington +107 over N.Y. METS
Lucas Giolito only went four innings in his MLB debut last week against these same Mets and allowed just one hit. That start was cut short by rain but he only threw 45 pitches against 14 hitters. He also walked two and struck out just one batter. This elite prospect fanned 10 against three walks per 9 innings pitched last year between Single and Double-A, and almost never surrendered a gopherball (just three total in 117 IP). He’s a potential ace, but lacks the high-minors experience/results that we look for to predict early success in MLB, as he makes the jump from Double-A to the Big Show. You can read lots more about Giolito in our June 28 scouting report in our MLB Call-up section here. Whether he thrives or not in this lone start is of no concern to us whatsoever, as this is a wager against Bartolo Colon.
Colon makes a lottery winner look unlucky. Colon’s shiny ERA is a complete mirage. At the age of 43, he is approaching the All-Star break with a 2.87 ERA in 94 innings. Only once in his 19-year career has he finished a season with a better ERA but aside from pinpoint control, this is an unremarkable collection of skills. Despite a dip in his first-pitch strike rate, Colon has again displayed superb control. His ball% suggests that he will maintain the 1.6 BB’s/9 pace that he is on right now. Things aren’t as rosy in the strikeout department, as he is again not missing many bats. Colon’s K-rate and swing and miss rate rank 85th and 93rd, respectively, among 94 qualified MLB starting pitchers. An auspicious strand % has served a major role in covering his flaws. Colon continues to utilize a pitch-to-contact approach and elite control to get the most out of what he has left in the tank. However, with an 87.8 mph fastball and a puny swing and miss rate, he has very little margin for error. His stinginess with free passes means he’ll likely maintain a solid WHIP, but look for his ERA to move much closer to his 4.49 xERA over the remainder of 2016. It’s absolutely incredible that a pitcher can throw a 87.8 MPH fastball 88% of the time and keep his ERA under three for half a season. That's extreme luck on batted ball variance. A must fade.
San Diego +123 over LOS ANGELES
Lots of moving parts here. First there is Drew Pomeranz and his 2.65 ERA to go along with 109 strikeouts in 95 innings. Pomeranz has struggled with his control for most of the season (39 walks), which has caused him to have bouts of ineffectiveness. A closer look tells us that all of his control problems are happening when he pitches from a full windup (5.8 BB’s/9). His control rebounds and his skills become dominant with guys on base: 10.2 K’s/9, 2.9 BB’s/9, 50% groundballs. There are worse things. He's someone whose overall control could improve with a mechanical adjustment or why not just remove the full windup from his arsenal? It’s probably because unless the Padres are reading this, they have no idea. In any event, Pomeranz has been elite this season.
Then there’s Hyun-Jin Ryu. There are plenty of questions that remain about Ryu’s ability to hold up after missing almost two seasons of MLB action, particularly given reports that his velocity is hovering in the mid/high 80’s. But he tossed six innings of two-run ball – his longest rehab outing yet – at High-A Rancho Cucamonga over the weekend, and has apparently emerged healthy. We’ll give him a marginal chance for success. If Ryu can come anywhere close to the effort from Brandon McCarthy over this past weekend, the Dodgers may not have to revert back to inexperienced names such as Ross Stripling and Brock Stewart but that’s a big if. To be continued......for now, Ryu cannot be favored over Pomeranz because the former is way more likely to get crushed.
Power Sports
Philadelphia vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
The Rockies are likely thrilled to be back at home following a pretty terrible road trip where they were held to one run or less a total of five times by the Dodgers and Giants. They lost all five of those games, obviously, and are just 1-7 their last eight overall. But I think that a visit from the Phillies is "just what the doctor ordered" in terms of getting back on track, even though Philly has won four straight.
Philadelphia comes in off a sweep, but that was at home and against Atlanta. It was a one-run win yday (4-3) and that precise margin of victory is what's kept this team afloat this year. They are 20-9 in one-run games so far this season, the most such victories in all of baseball. But that accounts for half of their total number of wins and they are just 20-37 otherwise. A 5-0 record in extra inning games similarly demonstrates this this is a poor team that's actually experienced a decent amount of "good luck." To me, a -82 run differential tells the "real" story here.
Adam Morgan vs. Chad Bettis is hardly the marquee pitching matchup on today's card. Honestly, it's difficult to like either. But Bettis will be facing a team that's 29th (out of 30) in runs scored and he's more accustomed to pitching at Coors Field. Morgan has allowed 21 hits in just 9 1/3 IP his last two starts! I like the Rockies to win this series opener.