SCOTT SPREITZER
Oakland at Houston
Play: Oakland +108
Rich Hill came off the disabled list and picked up where he left off as he allowed only two runs and four hits in six innings against Pittsburgh. Hill is 8-3 with a 2.31 ERA overall, including 6-0 and 1.40 on the road. The left-hander gave up two runs and two hits in six innings against Houston earlier this season and the Astros collectively are 4-for-28 against Hill. Doug Fister has struggled his last two starts allowing nine runs and 17 hits in 11 2/3 innings and he threw 103 pitches in just 4 2/3 innings versus the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. He'll face an Oakland squad on a 6-1 run on the road against right-handers. Also, Houston's bullpen may be a little worn out after using four relievers last night in a 9-8 win over Seattle. The Athletics have won seven of their last 11 road games and I'm betting this will be a good spot for the road underdog.
GoodFella
Pirates TT Over 3.5
We have a nice weather pattern for this DAY game here in St. Louis (when the ball carries the best, DAY games). Game time temp in the low 80's and wind blowing out to LCF (8-10 mph). These Pirates are swinging the bats right now & they face a SP in Wainwright who they have seen a lot of and have had some success when facing him. Some very key Pirates have really hit him well in their career. Wainwright has struggled this season & his velocity is definitely down. I do expect these Pirates to get to him eventually & then we get into a Cardinals bullpen that has not been consistent and got hit hard last night. I really like these Pirates to go OVER their Team Total over 3.5 runs in this spot on Thursday afternoon.
Kevin Rogers
A's at Astros
Play: A's
The Astros swept the A's the last time these teams hooked up at Minute Maid Park last month, as the two AL West rivals do battle again tonight in Texas. Rich Hill has been the ace of the Oakland pitching staff this season, compiling an 8-3 record and ERA of 2.31, while allowing 2 ER or less in eight of his past nine starts. Doug Fister has gone backwards of late for the Astros since a nice run from May through June, losing his last two starts and allowing 17 hits and 9 ER in defeats to the Royals and White Sox. I'll back Oakland in the series opener at Houston.
ASA
Seattle at Kansas City
Play: Seattle +125
The Mariners James Paxton may not have impressive stats this season but he’s only given up 3 homers in his 40+ innings of work on the season and he has been registering nearly 100 mph with his fastball. The Royals will face some high heat in this one and they have lost four consecutive games as well as 10 of their last 15. Kansas City has been a very streaky team this season and we expect that to continue tonight. The Royals are 4-9 this season when they on a streak of 3 or more consecutive losses. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium this evening so this game could come down to who does a better job of keeping the ball in the yard. The Royals will have Danny Duffy toeing the rubber this evening and he has allowed 7 homers in his 5 home starts this season. While Paxton is giving up only about 1 homer every FOURTEEN innings this season, Duffy is allowing about 1 homer every FOUR innings in his home starts. The Mariners will be looking to erase the bitter taste of a 3-game sweep at Houston and we feel strongly that they will do just that as they had won 7 of their 9 games prior to the series with the Astros. We’ll take the value with the road dog Mariners on the money line Thursday evening.
JEFF ALEXANDER
Tigers +106
I like the price we are catching the Tigers at on Thursday. Detroit will open a 4-game series at Toronto with their ace Justin Verlander on the mound. Verlander is coming off a very good start at Tampa Bay, where he allowed just 1 earned run on 4 hits with 8 strikeouts in 7 innings. On the flip side of this, Toronto will be starting Drew Hutchison, whose only start in 2016 at the big league level came way back in April. After that outing he was sent down to the minors. I look for Hutchison to struggle here against a Detroit offense that is scoring 6.3 runs/game over their last 7 and hitting .274 against right-handed starters this season. Tigers won their last game 12-2 over the Indians are 16-5 in their last 21 off a win of 6 or more against a division rival.
MIKE LUNDIN
Phillies vs. Rockies
Play: Over 12½
We've seen extremely high totals at Coors Field all season. The over is 23-14-1 in the Rockies' home games and this should be another high-scoring affair.
Chad Bettis (6-6, 5.85) takes the ball for Colorado Thursday night. He's posted a 1.69 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against the Phillies but he's 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA through his last two turns overall having allowed 18 hits and 11 runs in 11 innings. Bettis has a 6.69 ERA in seven home starts on the season.
The Phillies turn to left-hander Adam Morgan (1-6, 6.31 ERA) who will make a spot start instead of Aaron Nola. Morgan was winless in eight consecutive turns before being moved to the bullpen and the over is 5-0 in his last five starts.
The Phillies have won eight of their past nine games and they've scored 87 runs, an average of 5.8 per game, over their past 15 contests. Over is 10-4 in Phillies last 14 road games. Over is 6-1 in Rockies last seven home games.
JACK JONES
Kansas City Royals -134
The Kansas City Royals come into this series with the Seattle Mariners highly motivated for a victory. They have lost five of their last six coming in. They want to go into the All-Star Break on a positive note. The Royals are a sensational 27-11 at home this season.
Danny Duffy is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. He has gone 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA and 0.994 WHIP over 10 starts with 66 K's in 57 1/3 innings. Duffy has posted a 1.88 ERA in three career starts against Seattle, giving up just three earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.
James Paxton has taken the place of the injured Felix Hernandez in Seattle's rotation. It hasn't gone very well as Paxton is 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.710 WHIP in seven starts. He has been at his worst on the road, going 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.961 WHIP in three starts away from home.
Duffy is 17-4 (+11.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last three seasons. The Royals are 37-14 in their last 51 home games overall. The Mariners are 2-14 in their last 16 home games.
BRANDON LEE
Indians -144
I'll gladly back the Indians at home against the Yankees on Thursday. Cleveland did lose at home yesterday, but had won 13 straight at Progressive Field prior to that. I look for them to get right back to their winning ways with Trevor Bauer on the mound. Bauer has a 1.64 ERA and 0.864 WHIP over his last 3 starts and was also dominant in his last appearance out of the bullpen, giving up just 2 hits over 5 scoreless innings. Yankees will counter with Ivan Nova, who has a 6.28 ERA over his last 3 starts and a ugly 5.08 ERA in 5 road starts. New York is 5-16 in their last 21 as a road dog, while Indians are 25-8 in their last 33 at home with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.
DAVE PRICE
Houston Astros -114
The Houston Astros are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have gone 29-11 in their last 40 games overall to get back into the AL West race. They look to close out strong before the All-Star Break with another great series against the lowly Oakland A's, who have lost 6 of their last 7 coming in. Doug Fister is 8-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.281 WHIP in 16 starts this year. Fister is 7-6 with a 3.21 ERA in 17 lifetime starts vs. Oakland. He has gone 2-0 in his last two starts against the A's while giving up just 1 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, both of which have come in 2016. The Astros are 10-2 in Fister's last 12 starts overall. Houston is 15-3 in its last 18 vs. AL West opponents. The A's are 18-39 in their last 57 games following a loss. The Astros are 5-0 in the last 5 home meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
Derrick Lewis +120 over Roy Nelson
The #10 and #12 ranked heavyweights meet up in the co-main event on the July 7th Fight Night card. The 40-year Nelson comes into this fight fresh off of a win over Jared Rosholt in February, while the 31-year-old Lewis enters off an impressive three-fight win streak with the most recent being a win over Gabriel Gonzaga in April. Nelson comes in as a slight favourite over Lewis while the over/under total rounds is heavily favouring under 1½ rounds (-185). That heavy vigor on the under strongly suggests this isn't going the distance.
Derrick Lewis (#12) is turning into a knockout king in the heavyweight division by finishing two of his last three opponents off in the first round via KO and the other by 3rd round KO. Lewis has a career record of 15-4 with 14 KO's, and is 6-2 in the UFC with all eight of those fights ending in a knockout. Lewis is 6' 3" with a 79" reach, and weighs in at around 260 lbs. This stature makes him one of the most lethal heavyweights in the division, as he is able to stay at a distance and unload with power. Relatively young for the division, Lewis hasn't taken the damage that most other fighters have. He also has a strong chin that hasn't been rattled too often in his two UFC losses.
Nelson (#10) comes into this fight after winning a three-round decision over Rosholt in an extremely boring fight where both men danced in circles and threw jabs for 15 minutes with Nelson apparently getting the better of Rosholt. This style may have been Rosholt's doing, as he appeared to be the tentative one, not wanting to engage with Nelson in the pocket. However, maybe he should have been willing to take a few chances. Looking at Nelson's recent stretch shows an overall record of 2-7, with the two wins coming against Rosholt and Mintaro Nogueria. The win against Big Nog, was the last time Nelson was able to knock someone out and that happened over two years ago. That fight featured Nogueria on the fringe of retirement, due to injuries and a notorious glass jaw. Nogueria's last win came in 2012 vs. David Herman. This is the type of opponent that Nelson has been able to beat recently. Before this, Nelson's most recent knockout came vs. the now retired Chieck Kongo in 2013. Nelson is now a FORMER knockout artist. He is very slow, and undersized in this matchup. While equalling Lewis in weight, Nelson gives up three inches of height and a significant six inches in reach and it appears that the KO power that made Nelson so effective over three years ago has disappeared.
Lewis is the bigger, faster, more powerful, and more durable fighter here. Nelson is currently favoured because of the resume of opponents he has faced, taking on the UFC's best heavyweights for the past seven years. While accumulating victories over top talent in 2007-2013, his form as of late has been depressing, as it is clear that one of the most beloved characters in the UFC is nearing the end of his very entertaining career. In the past few years, Nelson has ran up a UFC record of 2-7, while Lewis has been climbing the ladder going 6-2 in the same time frame. While the group of opponents that Lewis has beaten does not compare to Nelson's, he can only beat who he is matched up against, and its clear that he is on the rise as a young heavyweight that may be on the verge of entering title contention as early as next year.
Following Derrick Lewis' viscous KO of Gonzaga in April, he demanded this matchup with Nelson. This is a very intelligent move for Lewis, as he sees the current state of Nelson, and can use a victory over a big named legend to vault himself into the top 10 and assert himself into title contention. He is showing the confidence, intelligence and current form to take Nelson out. He also has the physical advantage on most levels, making this price a great buy. When considering that the oddsmakers are expecting an early knockout, it is far more likely that Lewis accomplishes this than Nelson. This line will be moving towards even, and it wouldn't surprise us to see it flip completely before July 7. It is for that reason, we are posting it so early.
Bruce Marshall
Atlanta at Chicago
Pick: Atlanta
In this make-up game at Wrigley, compelled to buck the skidding Cubs, whose rotation has fallen apart along with its bullpen, while the everyday lineup has been thinned by the DL. Thursday starter Jason Hammel is really struggling, with the Cubs losing his last five starts, and his ERA at a season-high 3.45. Braves starter Lucas Harrell fired six solid innings in his Atlanta debut last Saturday, allowing just none run and three hits to the Marlins in a 9-1 win.
Harry Bondi
OAKLAND +110 over Houston
A’s starter Rich Hill has been one of the best first half stories in baseball. The tall lanky left-hander is 8-3 with a 2.31 ERA and will be one of the most sought after pitchers at the trade deadline. Hill has been fantastic through 12 starts and is facing an Astros team he held to just two runs on two hits on May 1.
Bob Balfe
Angels +130
Jered Weaver has struggled this year, but he still is a better starting pitcher than Smyly and the Rays are flat out a bad baseball team. I like the value in the dog tonight because the teams are never out of it against this struggling Tampa Bullpen. Look for Weaver to get it done on the road.
OSKEIM SPORTS
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians -145
New York right-hander Ivan Nova toes the rubber with a 5.04 ERA and 1.41 WHIP this season, including a 5.08 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road and a 6.28 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over his last three starts. Nova also owns a 4.81 FIP in 74.2 innings of work this season, including a 4.66 FIP on the road and a 6.29 FIP in the month of June. Last month was particularly difficult for the 29-year-old as he posted a 7.52 ERA in 26.1 innings, together with a 7.9% BB% and an 8.7% K-BB%.
Technically speaking, the Yankees are a money-burning 2-6 in Nova's last 8 road starts, 2-7 in his last 9 starts in game 1 of a series and 0-4 in his last four outings overall. New York's bullpen also continues to struggle as away from home where it owns an alarming 5.23 ERA in 115.3 innings this season. Meanwhile, Cleveland sends a surging Trevor Bauer to the mound, who is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts.
Overall, Bauer is 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 2016, which is supported by a 3.47 FIP and an elite ground ball rate (50.6%). The 25-year-old is also displaying the best command and control of his major league career (3.12 BB/9 vs. 4.04 BB/9 in 2015) and has limited the long ball (0.66 HR/9 vs. 1.18 HR/9 in 2015). Bauer posted a 2.01 ERA and 2.64 FIP in June (18.0% K-BB%) and boasts an 8.94 K/9 rate at home (15.4% K-BB%). Cleveland is also 5-1 in Bauer's last six starts and 5-1 in his last starts during game 1 of a series.
The Indians are a profitable 17-5 in their last 22 games versus teams with a losing record (7-0 L/7 at home), 11-2 in their last 13 games versus right-handed starters (7-1 L/8 at home), 9-0 in their last 9 against a starting pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 25-9 in their last 34 games overall. Cleveland's bullpen has also performed well in 2016, posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home and a 2.39 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at night.
With Cleveland standing at 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series, take the Indians and invest with confidence.