JIMMY BOYD
Yankees vs. A's
Play: A's +103
This line is begging for you to take the Yankees and most are taking the bait. I believe the value here with the A's, who will be excited to return home after an awful 5-game trip out east to play the Rays and Marlins. As good as New York has been playing, they are just .500 (16-16) on the road and just droppe 2 of 3 in their last series against the Angels in LA. The big key here for me is that Oakland has the kind of starter going that can keep the Yankees' big bats in check. Sonny Gray takes the mound for the A's and this is a guy that when he's healthy
The big key here for me is that Oakland has the kind of starter going that can keep the Yankees' big bats in check. Sonny Gray takes the mound for the A's and this is a guy that when he's healthy an in form, is a legit Cy Young contender. He's been up and down this season, but is 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 4 home starts and has shown some good signs of late with 16 strikeouts in his last 13 innings of work.
New York will send out lefty Jordy Montgomery, who has been throwing the ball well of late, but I don't think he's someone you can trust on the road. A's have won 7 of 9 at home against a left-handed starter, while Montgomery is a mere 1-4 in this last 5 after a Quality Start in his previous outing.
JACK JONES
Mariners vs. Twins
Play: Twins -109
The Minnesota Twins have lost two of three games in this series to the Seattle Mariners despite scoring a combined 27 runs in the three games. Now they should finally get some good starting pitching tonight, which will help them split this series.
Jose Berrios is 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in six starts this season. He has struck out 39 batters in 38 innings and is the most talented starter on this Twins' roster. He will be facing the Mariners for the first time, so he'll have the element of surprise here.
Ariel Miranda has put up solid overall numbers, but he hasn't been very good away from home. Miranda has posted a 5.69 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in seven road starts this season, giving up 8 homers in 31 2/3 innings. He is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in one career start against Minnesota.
Plays against any team (SEATTLE) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 15 games, starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing are 30-9 (76.9%, +21 units) over the last five seasons. Minnesota is 6-1 in Berrios' last seven starts.
CHASE DIAMOND
Rays +132
Another plus money free winner yesterday today's game features the Tampa Bay Rays and the Detroit Tigers. Justin Verlander is a fade pitcher for me I just don't think he has the stuff anymore add to that Verlander had his start moved up and Cobb has had one extra day of rest all this leads me to really love the Rays here on the road. Only 25% of the public bets have gone on the road Rays and this line seems to be holding strong.
ASA
Orioles vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox +107
Chris Tillman is 1-4 with an 8.01 ERA on the season. Of course the Orioles are still favored here because the White Sox have a losing record on the season and southpaw David Holmberg is nearly the "name" that Tillman is in terms of how starting pitchers are evaluated. However, although Holmberg has not pitched deep into games, the fact that he has allowed just 6 hits in nearly 12 innings of work over his 3 starts this season shows that the left-hander has been missing plenty of bats. The White Sox have 20 hits in the 15 and 2 / 3 innings spanning Tillman's last 3 starts against them. As for the Orioles lineup, this is the first time they've seen Holmberg as a starter. Also, the Pale Hose will be hungry to bounce back after yesterday's ugly 10-6 loss. Though the White Sox have not fared well yet this season when off of a game where they gave up double digits in runs, this has been a profitable situation for them in recent seasons. Also, the Orioles are 0-4 this season in road games where the total is set at 10 or 10.5 runs. Baltimore is only 6-11 in day games this season and 11-22 in road games. The O's have lost each of Tillman's last 4 starts while the White Sox are 2-1 in Holmberg's 3 starts.
JOHN MARTIN
Red Sox vs. Phillies
Play: Red Sox -1.5
Expect the Boston Red Sox to sweep the Philadelphia Phillies today and win this contest by two runs or more in the process. The Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. Now ace Chris Sale gets the ball and he's 8-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 13 starts this year with 126 K's in 91 innings. He is legitimately one of the best starters in baseball, and he's up against a 21-43 Phillies team that is hitting just .243 on the season. Nick Pivetta is 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in six starts for Philadelphia. He's in line to get rocked by a Boston team that is hitting .269 on the year. The Red Sox are 30-11 in the last 41 meetings, including 8-1 in all meetings over the past three seasons.
DAVE PRICE
Orioles vs. White Sox
Play: Orioles -114
The Key: The Baltimore Orioles had lost 6 straight before going off for 10 runs yesterday in a win over the White Sox. I think those bats stay hot against Chicago's David Holmberg, who is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in 3 starts this year. Chris Tillman has struggled in his return from injury, but now he's up against a team that he has dominated throughout his career. Tillman is 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. Chicago. Tillman is 10-2 against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles are 36-17 in Tillman's last 53 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 4-10 in their last 14 games overall.
DOC'S SPORTS
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -138
The Milwaukee Brewers visit Busch Stadium on Thursday, June 15, 2017 to play the St. Louis Cardinals. The probable starters are Zach Davies for the Brewers and Michael Wacha for the Cardinals.
The opening line for this matchup has Milwaukee at +147 and St. Louis at -157. The Brewers have a 37-26-3 over/under record and a 42-24-0 run line mark. The Cardinals are 29-34-0 against the run line and have a 33-28-2 over/under record.
Valuable Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers are 37-26-3 against the over/under
The Milwaukee Brewers are 42-24-0 against the run line
Important St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends
The St. Louis Cardinals are 33-28-2 against the over/under
The St. Louis Cardinals are 29-34-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Brewers have a 34-32 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Zach Davies has a 7-3 record with an earned run average of 4.74 and a WHIP of 1.52. He has 50 strikeouts over his 68.1 innings pitched and he's given up 78 hits. He allows 10.3 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.06. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.54 and they have given up 235 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .258 against the bullpen and they've struck out 228 hitters and walked 119 batters. As a team, Milwaukee allows 9.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings. They are 15th in the league in team earned run average at 4.22. The Brewers pitchers collectively have given up 601 base hits and 279 earned runs. They have allowed 76 home runs this season, ranking them 19th in the league. Milwaukee as a pitching staff has walked 235 batters and struck out 525. They have walked 3.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.40 and their FIP as a unit is 4.31.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Milwaukee is hitting .250, good for 18th in the league. The Brewers hold a .438 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .324, which is good for 18th in baseball. They rank 16th in MLB with 8.6 hits per game. Eric Thames is hitting .253 with an on-base percentage of .396. He has 50 hits this season in 198 at bats with 30 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .561 and an OPS+ of 146. Domingo Santana is hitting .278 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .374. He has totaled 58 hits and he has driven in 34 men in 209 at bats. His OPS+ is 122 while his slugging percentage is at .483. The Brewers have 565 hits, including 123 doubles and 91 home runs. Milwaukee has walked 227 times so far this season and they have struck out 636 times as a unit. They have left 438 men on base and have a team OPS of .762. They score 4.86 runs per contest and have scored a total of 321 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
St. Louis has a 30-33 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.50, Michael Wacha has a 3-3 record and a 1.38 WHIP. He has 55 strikeouts over the 60 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 60 hits. He allows 9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.71 and they have given up 200 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .258 against the Cardinals bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 194 batters and walked 81 opposing hitters. As a team, St. Louis allows 8.3 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings. They are 5th in the league in team earned run average at 3.93. The Cardinals pitchers as a team have surrendered 529 base knocks and 250 earned runs this season. They have given up 69 home runs this year, which ranks 26th in Major League Baseball. St. Louis as a staff has walked 206 hitters and struck out 539 batters. They give up a walk 3.2 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.5 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.28 while their FIP as a staff is 4.00.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .252, good for 16th in the league. The Cardinals hold a .405 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .324, which is good for 17th in baseball. They rank 19th in MLB with 8.5 hits per contest. Aledmys Diaz comes into this matchup batting .258 with an OBP of .290. He has 60 hits this year along with 16 RBI in 233 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .403 with an OPS+ of 83. Jedd Gyorko is hitting .301 this season and he has an OBP of .348. He has collected 58 hits in 193 at bats while driving in 27 runs. He has an OPS+ of 123 and a slugging percentage of .503. The Cardinals as a unit have 536 base hits, including 115 doubles and 63 homers. St. Louis has walked 213 times this year and they have struck out on 504 occasions. They have had 427 men left on base and have an OPS of .729. They have scored 4.11 runs per game and totaled 259 runs this season.
MIKE ANTHONY
Mariners vs. Twins
Play: Under 9.5
These are a pair of nice young pitchers with Ariel Miranda vs Jose Berrios going at it. The Mariners have really been one with their defensive footwork across the bags. Seattle has only 33 errors on the season through 6.12.2017 - placing them 6th in MLB. The Mariners will continue to scrap and claw all season long. Look for Seattle to be playing some fun ball as we push forward. It really feels like Minnesota is hitting a little better than they normally should. And pitching a little worse than they normally would. Over the season - Minnesota has only been hitting the ball .250 - it is not getting any easier here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +119 over L.A. ANGELS
What a great spot for the Royals to be taking back an inflated price against an Angels’ squad that just beat the then red-hot Yanks the past two nights. A lot of folks lost money on New York at the Big A and now a lot of those same folks will switch gears and back the Angels against the perceived weak Royals. The Angels won in extra innings on Tuesday and then fell behind 4-0 in the first inning last night before rallying to win it, 7-5. So, aside from the emotional letdown after back-to-back dramatic wins against the Yanks, Ricky Nolasco is not worthy of being priced in this range on his best day.
When Ricky Nolasco throws a good game, it’s a complete fluke. Nolasco's 18 walks issued in 62 innings is also a fluke, as his 58% first pitch strike rate and 39% ball% will catch up with him soon. As his walks increase, his command will erode, returning him or keeping him at his end-rotation profile. Nolasco has two wins in 13 starts so his chances of losing are far greater than his chances of winning. His 1.37 WHIP, 4.96 xERA, 1.46 WHIP and 5.11 xERA over his last five starts confirm all of the above. Nolasco is well below average.
Part of our procedure in getting ready for the season is to make a few notes on every potential starter in the league. We can then refer back to those notes once the season starts and perhaps find some hidden value in there somewhere when a rather unknown pitcher shows up. Such is the case with Matt Strahm. Our notes on Strahm were as follows: Went 2-2, 1.23 ERA in 22 IP for KC. Seemed to have fixed control issues prior to 7/31 callup, though first-pitch strike rate calls that into question. Things did get a bit loose late (7 BB in last 7.1 IP), but MLB 12.3 K’s/9, strong swing and miss rate, futility of RHB hint at significant upside, especially given reports he'll compete for starting role in spring. Keep an eye on him.
We’re going to do exactly that. Strahm has not started this year but has appeared in 20 games and has 26 K’s in 22 innings. His control issues have not disappeared so that risk is still there but he’s a pitcher that has a live arm and his stuff can get filthy. Strahm has more upside as a starter than reliever and it’s a role he’s more accustomed to anyway. Lastly, after a horrible start to the year, the Royals have won 13 of their past 20 games to get right back into the race. They are one of the hotter teams in the league right now but they’re not priced like it. Invest.
CHICAGO +108 over Baltimore
David Holmberg has a good sinking fastball that reaches the low 90s, along with an average slider and a low-80s changeup that is plus. The 6'3", 245-pounder can use his height to pound low in the zone and force ground balls, but when he loses command, he can be roughed up as he was last year (with Cinci). Holmberg has made 11 appearances this season with the first eight being in relief and the last three coming as a starter. He’s very likely to be on a 80-85 pitch count but we can live with whatever happens. He’s already faced Cleveland, Detroit and Boston in his first three starts and didn’t look out of place so he’s not going to be uneasy when facing any team. He is a risk to be sure but Baltimore favored in Chicago here is incorrect.
Where do we start? How about Baltimore’s home/road splits? The O’s are 21-10 at home but on the road, they have a lousy 11 wins in 33 games and now their worst pitcher is favored on the road? Tillman is being paid 10M this year so the Orioles will stomach whatever happens on the mound at least for the next three months and we’ll be there to fade him almost every time. Over the past six months of baseball (the last three months of last year and the first three months this year) there is not a pitcher in baseball (including the minors) that has fallen off a bigger cliff than Tillman. You would be hard pressed to find a pitcher with worse skills too. In 30 innings, Tillman has walked 18 and struck out 20. Over his last 21 innings, he has walked 13 and struck out 12. His WHIP of 2.08 is the worst in baseball but he doesn’t qualify with just 30 innings pitched. Over the last six months of baseball, Tillman has posted career-worst command, skills, and xERA (7.78) while his league worst 44% first-pitch strike rate continues to speak to his strained relationship with the strike zone. The pitcher you remember from years past no longer exists and in terms of pitchers worthy of being road chalk, Chris Tillman should be dead last on that list.
San Francisco -1½ +215 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
13-14 + 25.40 units
Milwaukee +134 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals continue to struggle but they continue to be priced like they’re in first place. Aside from a shaky defense, St. Louis is 30-34 and just a game over .500 at home.
Coming off an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, Michael Wacha looked like he was back to full strength early on, as his ERA stood at 2.74 through seven starts. He's been blown up in his last three though, bringing his mark for the season up to 4.50 and the overall picture is mediocre once again. There's nothing wrong with Wacha’s velocity or his ability to miss bats, even during his recent rough stretch. That being said, his swing and miss rate doesn't support a strikeout per inning, so his K-rate will probably drop back towards his career norms. He had decent control through his first seven outings, but with nine walks in 11.1 innings over his last three, his control is now the worst it's ever been. On a positive note, he did have a 66 percent first-pitch strike rate over those three starts, and in his last two, he's thrown a higher percentage of pitches in the zone than any of his other starts. The balls in play against him are in line with his past numbers, but he's been hurt a little bit by both poor defense behind him and a slightly inflated home run per fly-ball rate. Wacha has been getting knocked around lately after a hot start, but nothing in his game log stands out as anything out of the ordinary.
Michael Wacha could be the poster boy for what we’re preaching and that is nobody can predict outcomes. His skills have been the same pretty much all year but he’ll throw a gem one game, get whacked the next and then go six innings and allow three or four runs the next time out. He’s a risk when favored and he has value when being offered a price. He plays for a team around .500 and he’ll be facing a team around .500. Wacha will do well if balls are hit at people but he won’t if they’re not and some hits are strung together. Many pitchers are at the mercy of batted balls in play, team defense and other variables and Michael Wacha is no exception. He’s a viable mid-rotation starter without the type of ceiling some were expecting when he first made a splash back in 2013. Zach Davies is very much in the same boat as Wacha so the choice here is not a difficult one. Milwaukee’s chances of winning are at least equal to the Cards’ chances and therefore the price prompts us to step in.
Will Rogers
Washington at New York
Play: New York
The set-up: The Wshinton Nationals own the NL's worst bullpen (5.20 ERA) but the team's offense has been good enough to give them a 39-26 record. Washington ranks third in runs scored (5.46 per), BA (.274) and OPS (.809) plus the team's 98 HRs rank 4th-best in all of MLB. The Mets sit 8 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East at 30-34, but get set to open a four-game home series against Washington with a chance to close the gap. The timing couldn't be better. New York has won five of its last six games, while Washington has lost five of its last six.
The pitching matchup: Gio Gonzalez (5-1 & 2.91 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and Robert Gsellman (5-3 & 4.95 ERA) for New York. Gonzalez seems well on his way to his eighth straight season with double-digit wins and has posted three straight quality starts. However, the Nats are just 7-6 in his 13 starts this season, despite his 2.91 ERA. However, Gonzalez has enjoyed pitching against the Mets, going 12-5 with a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts (teams are 14-7). Gsellman has won three straight starts and has posted a 2.16 ERA in four outings since rejoining the rotation on May 24. He threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings to beat Atlanta 6-1 his last time out, allowing only three hits and two walks. Gsellman was terrific in two starts against the Nationals last season, giving up one run and 11 hits over 11 2/3 innings in a win and a no-decision.
The pick: Gonzalez does own excellent success against the Mets in his career but while his home ERA is 1.66 this season, it's 4.38 on the road, where he also owns a 1.49 WHIP. As noted, Washington's bullpen is a nightmare. The Mets come in having gone 5-1 their last six, while averaging 5.67 RPG. Throw in Gsellman's strong recent outings and the Mets are the play.
The Gold Sheet
Brewers at Cardinals
Play: Brewers +130
Milwaukee looking to take three out of four in this series. They appear to be a much better team than St. Louis in both hitting and pitching. Zach Davies (4.74, 1.52) has won his last two starts and is 5-1 in his last seven. He has been better on the road with a 3.98 ERA and three wins in six starts. The Cards have lost four out of Michael Wacha's (4.50, 1.38) last five starts, and he has only gone as many as six innings twice in that time.
Robert Ferringo
Giants at Rockies
Play: Over
San Francisco has a pathetic offense. But they have actually busted out for seven or more runs in five of their last 10 games. That is something. And I think that they will be able to get to Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman has been dealing. He has just a 2.33 ERA and a sick 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But things have been coming a little too easy for him and I think he is due for a dud. He hasn't pitched in Coors Field in several weeks and he won't get away with some of the stuff there that he has been on the road. The Giants are going with Matt Moore here and Colorado has been beating up lefties all season long. They have the most runs in the Majors against left-handed pitching and I can see this one turning into a 7-5 shootout.
Buster Sports
Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +220
The Phillies and Red Sox play the last game of their home and home series tonight in Philadelphia and the Phillies have lost all 3 so far. We are going to take a flyer on the HUGE underdog Phillies tonight as we are getting plus 220 at the time of this writing. The starting pitchers tonight are for the Red Sox LH Chris Sale (8-2, 2.97 ERA) and he will face the Phillies Nick Pivetta (1-3, 5.52 ERA) Sale has been great for the Red Sox this year but he has been a little off in his last 3 starts sporting a 5.50 ERA with a WHIP of 1.556. Last year when Sale visited Citizens Bank Park he was hit around for 6 runs in 4 innings. As for Pivetta he has been basically terrible so far but he is young and most of those starts were on the road. He is getting his second home start today and we look for better things from the 24 yr old rookie. The public is all over the Red Sox but with Sale not looking himself of late and on the road we will be the contrarian here and take the HUGE DOG.
The Prez
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Play: Over 9.5
The Tampa Bay Rays continue to grind out wins as the mid-season classic approaches and take Comerica Park field tonight in a contest against the Detroit Tigers. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET with Rays Alex Cobb (5-5, 4.29 ERA) opposing Tigers Justin Verlander (4-4, 4.68).
Cobb comes off a one run and six inning outing against Oakland that followed arguably his most ineffective turn of the season in which he allowed nine runs in five frames in Seattle against the Mariners. Cobb strong start versus the A's should be taken with a grain of salt. The A's strike out nearly three times for every walk they draw and through 13 starts this season Cobb has a 4.29 ERA (4.40 xFIP). He, like many other pitchers in the league, are offered some refuge from regression when facing the Athletics lineup.
Cobb has a strong walk percentage of just seven but is giving up too much contact, hard contact, with a reduced K rate this season (just 16 percent). The lack of missed bats and his 38% hard contact rate has resulted in a rise in his fly ball to ground ball ratio and his 1-plus home runs per nine innings despite receiving half of his starts in pitcher-friendly Tropicana. Cobb's out pitch during his career, his changeup, has been discarded this year in favor of his curveball and the now two pitch-pitcher that has ditched the most effective pitch in his arsenal is a fifth starter for the Rays and any other club in the league.
Verlander left a Sunday start two turns back with groin tightness throwing just two innings vs. the Chicago White Sox. He returned for his next start working on six days of rest only to average nearly 22 pitches per inning in a no decision against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Verlander has been ineffective for the better part of the last month. He has allowed 12 runs on 26 hits over his last 19 2/3 innings in his past four starts and scuffled with his command issuing 37 walks in 75 innings. The former Cy Young winner has not only struggled with his command he has lost the late movement that has served him well during his career giving him a strong SwStrike percentage and an out pitch. Most recently JV has not been efficient and the result has been a high pitch count and early departures from his starts. In his last turn versus the Boston Red Sox he threw 108 pitches in which 22 where fouled off by the Red Sox lineup. Two turns ago, in Comerica versus the White Sox the Tigers big right-hander threw 72 pitches in which the Pale Sox fouled off 21.
LA ANGELS (-130) over Kansas City
LA has thrived when facing left-handed starters this season, going 11-6 while averaging 4.6 runs per game. And when listed as a home favorite between -125 and -175, the Halos are a profitable 52-21 (+22.6 units) the last three seasons, including a 10-4 mark (+4.6 units) in 2017. This is the night KC goes cold. Lay the home favorite.