Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, June 22nd, 2017

DAVE COKIN

TIGERS AT MARINERS
PLAY: MARINERS

No early line because Seattle changed starting pitchers. They have wisely decided to move Gallardo to the bullpen, where I think he could actually be okay. But as a starter, he was getting killed.

So they’ve called up Andrew Moore, who has rocketed through the Seattle system since getting drafted out of Oregon State. Moore doesn’t throw hard but his fastball appears quicker than it really is, and this guy has excellent command and control. I think Moore has a real chance to stick with the Mariners even when they get their DL starters back.

Daniel Norris has been reasonably effective for the Tigers in spite of a high WHIP. But he’s not a guy who goes deep into games, with 6.1 his high water innings mark for the season. That means a strong likelihood of at least three innings for the shabby Detroit relief corps.

Beyond that, I see no reason to climb off the fade Detroit train. I am absolutely looking to play against them virtually every game unless the price is nuts. This is likely to continue until they either turn things around to my surprise, or finally pull the plug on Brad Ausmus. I suspect the latter is the far more likely occurrence. So it’s another play on the Mariners for me on Thursday night.

Brad Diamond

Cubs vs. Marlins
Play: Cubs -122

Cubs lost 3-2 to San Diego, but they are 4-0 off a loss. And, although RHP Arrieta has been minimized in road starts, the Cubs are an incredible 7-0 on Thursday with the hurler. In addition, Chicago visits Miami with a nice 10-6 record against LHP with a massive 5.7 runs per game vs. portsiders. No doubt the Marlins are feisty and will be ready for a major test trying to reach the .500 mark (32-38) on the season. Still can’t back lefty Locke, though, who carries a 1-5 (5.98) mark vs. Chicago, while Miami has lost his last four road starts. With the Marlins 1-4 on Thursday and play after a rough series, we’ll back the Cubs to rebound.

Ben Burns

Giants vs. Braves
Play: Over 9

Matt Cain (3-6, 4.99 ERA) is struggling in his 13th year as a pro for the Giants, most recently giving up nine hits and two runs over five innings in what turned out to be a loss against Colorado on Saturday. To go along with his uninspiring 4.99 ERA, Cain also owns a poor 1.69 WHIP and has just 46 K’s over 74.0 innings of work (note that he’s failed to go deeper than 5.00 innings in any of his last four starts and is 0-4 with a 7.45 ERA on the road). Jaime Garcia (2-5, 3.59) has looked decent at times this year and really horrible in others. Most recently he gave up six runs off seven hits over five innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Marlins on Saturday (Garcia is 0-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home this season). Recent form between these starters suggests we’ll have a bit of a “slug-fest” on our hands in this one.

Marc Lawrence

Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Cardinals -135

Edges - Cardinals: Martinez 3-0 career team starts vs Philadelphia, and 2-0 vs NL East foes this season… Phillies: Nola 0-3 vs NL Central foes this season, and 6.50 home ERA as opposed to 3.82 away ERA this season… With Martinez in strong KW form with 27 Ks and 6 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.

Vic Duke

Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Under 8½

Both of these pitchers are solid in daytime action. And Martinez is especially on his game controlling a 2.86 ERA with a low WHIP. And despite Nola's struggles at home, he has pitched very well against St. Louis with only 3 runs given up in 12 innings covering a start last year and this year. Series has gone 3-6 O/U and we'll look for limited runs today.

Mike Anthony

Houston vs. Oakland
Play: Houston -132

Houston is best team in the AL hands down - maybe even the majors, as their league domination indicates. Jose Altuve's .338 last season and George Springer's 29 HRs in 2016 are not flukes. A. J. Hinch is much more confident in the Houston group this year - after last years very disappointing season. Oakland still has some serious lingering concerns over their bullpen. Which considering what transpired last month - shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Along with no benefits of good gloves and quick feet on the defensive side - Oakland should be ready to get smoked here. Houston wins on the road here Thursday afternoon.

Rob Vinciletti

Houston vs. Oakland
Play: Houston -130

Houston is 30-7 as a road favorite and has won 39 of 54 vs right handers. They average 6 runs per game in day action and 6.6 runs on the road. They had won 8 straight here in Oakland prior to last nights game. They have Paulino pitching and he pitched much better last out allowing 1 run in 6 innings against a solid Boston lineup. Oakland hits just .224 in division games and they have Hahn on the mound. In his last 2 starts vs Houston Hahn has been hammered allowing 11 runs in 6 innings. Look for Houston to take the finale.

Will Rogers

Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore

The set-up: The Indians surged into first place in the AL Central with a four-game sweep of the Twins in Minnesota Thursday through Sunday, where they outscored them 28-8. The Indians opened a four-game road series at Baltimore with a 12-0 Monday pasting of the Orioles but Baltimore rebounded by edging Cleveland 6-5 on Tuesday. The Indians won again last night though, beating the Orioles 5-1 for their seventh win in their last eight outings. Baltimore's pitching continues to be a major cause for concern, as the Orioles have now allowed at least five runs in 18 consecutive games, just two shy of the major league mark set by Philadelphia back in 1924! The Orioles have dropped 10 of their last 14 to drop under .500 (35-36).

The pitching matchup: Mike Clevinger (2-3 & 3.89 ERA) takes the mound for Cleveland and Wade Miley (3-4 & 4.29 ERA) for Baltimore. Clevinger is coming off a four-inning stint in a doubleheader at Minnesota on Saturday (allowed two hits and one run in the Indians' 6-2 win / he didn't figure in the decision) but was then sent down to Triple-A Columbus. However, his stay was a short one, as he's been recalled to get the start in this one. He's made eight appearances, including seven starts (Cleveland is 3-4), so far in 2017. Clevinger didn't fare well in his only career outing versus Baltimore, permitting four runs on fours hits with three walks in four innings of a no-decision on May 29, 2016 (9.00 ERA / team lost). Miley has surrendered six runs on six hits in consecutive outings but was able to walk away with the victory on Saturday after lasting 5 2/3 innings of a 15-7 victory versus St. Louis. "It's been a grind, no doubt. Baseball's going to throw that at you at some point every year," Miley said of his struggles. Baltimore is 8-6 in his 14 starts so far in 2017. Miley's made three career starts against Cleveland, going 1-1 with a 4.29 ERA (teams are 2-1).

The pick: Baltimore's been in a steep decline for some time now, as after reaching 22-10 on May 9, the team has lost 25 of 38 games to fall into last place in the AL East. The defending AL champs are back on top in the AL Central at 38-32 but let's note that Clevinger is a flawed pitcher and that the Orioles are still 24-13 at home on the season.

Jim Feist

Indians at Orioles
Pick: Over

Cleveland is clicking on offense, scoring 5 runs or more in 7 straight games, a total of 57 runs. Starter Mike Clevinger has walked 18 in 37 innings, a poor ratio. The Over is 5-1-1 when the Indians face the AL East. Baltimore is on a 15-5-1 run over the total, 13-2-1 over against a right-handed starter. Lefty Wade Miley also walks too many, 40 in just 71 innings with 75 hits allowed.

SPORTS WAGERS

Saskatchewan +7 over MONTREAL

To call the 2016 Saskatchewan Roughriders a disappointment would be an understatement. The franchise seemingly wasted one last great healthy year from former quarterback Darian Durant, who threw for nearly 4000 yards on a five-win team. You can't turn the dial to a sports radio station in Winnipeg, Edmonton or Calgary (you know, where they actually talk about the CFL) and not hear the guffaws every time the Roughriders are brought up. It’s hard not to laugh when on paper this team went from a mainstay at the QB position in Durant, to signing former NCAA Champion and NFL bust Vince Young, to finally settling on veteran Kevin Glenn. Glenn is a decent enough guy but he's now on his third stint with the Riders in 13-years. Glenn has never won a Grey Cup and is 38, nearly four years older than Durant. We’ll say this about Glenn; at least he’s been employable for the last decade and a half and until his arm falls off or he turns to dust, he’s at least capable. Behind Glenn are unproven backups Brandon Bridge and Marquise Williams who did nothing but distance themselves from the veteran QB during the preseason with their poor play. We’ll never get to see what Vince Young could have brought to the Riders, as he was released after tearing a hamstring in training camp. Saskatchewan’s biggest problem last season was the poor play of its offensive line and they made a big splash in signing 2016's Most Outstanding Offensive Lineman, Derek Dennis. Dennis is an imposing 345 lbs and should make an impact immediately. Saskatchewan’s other notable offensive acquisition, receiver, Duron Carter, is a talented pass catcher who joins an already solid core of receivers. He and Glenn had some chemistry in Montreal last season.

Head coach and known buffoon Chris Jones bamboozled the Riders brass into giving him the reigns of this storied franchise before the 2016 season after he took the Eskimos to a Grey Cup in 2015. Jones is so sleazy that he couldn’t even wait for the parade before he masterminded his exit from Edmonton. Jones is a self-proclaimed defensive genius but that didn’t translate onto the field in 2016, as the Riders allowed the second most points, while finishing dead last in sacks. Despite the poor results a year ago, the Riders D-Line is built around a solid core of talented veterans who can all rush the passer. Saskatchewan was able to make trouble for all three B.C. quarterbacks in Game 2 of the preseason by racking up five sacks.

The books do not appear to have high hopes for the 2017 Roughriders. They are a league-worst +950 to win the Grey Cup and are projected by most pundits to finish last in the West Division. However, a closer look at their season win projection has the Riders at 9½ games, which is a notable improvement over their 5-13 record a year ago. Between the jokes and poor market perception, the Roughriders can actually provide us with some early season value and that starts here in Week 1.

After nearly 20 years as the class of the East Division, the Alouettes have fallen on hard times. Montreal finished 7-11 in a division that failed to produce a .500 team and missed the playoffs for the second year in a row. Als' owner Bob Wetenhall fired organizational czar Jim Popp, who wore every hat for the club since it returned in 1996. That move was long overdue, as Popp had been a raving lunatic for years, especially when he patrolled the sidelines but maybe Wetenhall just drove his former coach, GM, VP, etc crazy over the years with his unreasonable requests. If the handcuffs put on Popp's replacement, former special teams coordinator Kavis Reed are any indication, bless Popp for not losing all his marbles sooner. While Reed was handed the reins of general manager, it came with a caveat, as he had to keep interim head coach Jacques Chapdelaine, who took over for Popp last fall. It's never a good look when a general manager doesn't have a hand in building his coaching staff. Looking to make a name for himself, Reed made the biggest splash of the offseason after acquiring a Grey Cup winning quarterback in Darian Durant from the Roughriders. In addition to Durant, Reed also traded for All-Star offensive tackle Jovan Olafioye from the Lions and signed free agent receiver Ernest Jackson from the Grey Cup Champion Redblacks. The Als' offseason moves made waves around the league but how confident can they be in Durant if they are reportedly kicking tires on former Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman?

While the Als' offense appears to be improved, it has come at a cost. Montreal was one of the stronger defensive teams in the league last season, giving up the second fewest points, putting up 47 sacks and forcing a league-high 26 fumbles. Linebackers Winston Venable and Bear Woods, defensive linemen Aaron Lavarious and Alan-Michael Cash and safety Marc-Olivier Brouillette were all cut loose. Mainstay Chip Cox was spared but he’s a year older and asking him to pick up the slack with a new unproven core might be too much. In Week 1, the Alouettes are the biggest favourite on the board.

When taking a look at Grey Cup futures the Als are +850 which is good for second worst only to the Riders at +950. It does not appear oddsmakers are convinced this team is much improved and being in the much easier East, Montreal’s +850 price might be worse than the Riders +950 price. With the Als projected to be a middle of the road team or worse this season, they are going to be an unappealing choice when laying points more often than not. There’s a lot of hype around this team after an eventful offseason. Those moves appear to have a lot of sizzle but we don’t smell any steak. Last season, the Als were not favored in this range even one time. The biggest price they were all of last season season was -3 against Toronto and now they’re four points higher than that in their first game of the year? Uh-uh my friends. Take the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +108 over MILWAUKEE

The Pirates lost 4-3 last night in one of the more bizarre losses you will ever see. Pittsburgh had great at bats all night long. They made every Brewers pitcher throw what seemed like 8-10 pitches every at-bat. They hit the ball hard all night long but all those hard hit balls were right at people and there was some outstanding defensive work by the Brewers too. Milwaukee had weak at bats all night long and seemed to go quickly and quietly all night with the exception of a very fortunate 2-run shot in the bottom of the 7th. It wasn’t just last night either though. Pittsburgh scored 15 runs combined in the first two games of this series and probably should have scored another eight last night. Milwaukee scored four times in the first two games. Pittsburgh is undervalued greatly here and we’re all over this one.

Chase Anderson comes in with a 2.92 ERA after 14 starts to go along with a very respectable BB/K split of 25/77 in 83 innings. However, there are plenty of warning signs still. Anderson is living proof that not all surface stats are to be trusted. His xERA is 4.35. Once Anderson’s high 78.5% strand rate normalizes, his ERA will rise. Aside from that, let’s call a spade a spade. Chase Anderson lucked into innings pitched by being on bad teams the last two seasons. As his first pitch strike rate keeps declining, his 10% swing and miss rate won't help him push his strikeout needle, so his command will erode further. He's already getting hit hard enough as it is but it’s not showing up on his surface stats. This now becomes a great sell-high opportunity.

Ivan Nova certainly had some highlights in pinstripes—he burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2011 (16-4, 3.70 ERA) and put up a 3.10 ERA two years later—but his tenure with New York was marred by injuries, rollercoaster production and inconsistent roles that included rotation/bullpen shuffles and a couple demotions to Triple-A. Nova didn’t get a chance to take that next step up, as Tommy John came calling in May 2014. Upon his return, Nova posted a 4.99 ERA over his next 191 IP until the Yankees traded him to Pittsburgh on August 1, 2016 for a pair of High-A prospects. In his short time with Pittsburgh, Nova's put up some of the best numbers in baseball—his 2.71 ERA since the trade is fifth-best in MLB over that span. Nova runs a four-pitch mix that features a pair of fastballs (two-seam, four-seam), a curveball, and a change-up. Nova’s groundball rate is extreme and elite and it’s worth noting that he’s producing a 50%+ groundball rate with three different offerings. Ivan Nova is pitching like an ace and it’s all legit.

MINNESOTA +102 over Chicago

There are many things that come into play here. First, with 16 wins in 43 road games, the South Side cannot be favored on the road. Secondly, Chicago has never faced Nik Turley before so combined, they have zero AB’s against him while the Twinkies have seen Jose Quintana for years and have a combined 247 AB’s against him. That’s 247 AB’s against Quintana to 0 AB’s against Turley. That along makes the Twinkies worthy of a bet here. Incidentally, the Twinkies have combined to hit .263 off him Quintana with an OPS of .746 and that’s mostly when he was better than he is right now.

Turley was a 50th-round pick of the Yankees in 2008 and had moderate success in the organization prior to signing with the Giants as a minor league free agent in December 2014. Since that time, he was briefly in the White Sox and Red Sox organizations before earning his releases and signing with an independent league team in 2016. The Twins inked him to a minor league contract in October 2016. He has seen a drastic increase in his strikeout rate thanks to his knuckle-curveball that is a legitimate weapon against hitters from both sides of the plate. It freezes lefties and righties rarely make hard contact against it. Turley’s fastball generally sits between 88-93 mph and he occasionally mixes in a slider and changeup. The curveball is definitely his go-to pitch. Not only has his curve evolved into a plus pitch, but he’s starting to throw consistent strikes. Control and command have been significant obstacles in his past but if didn’t walk a batter in his debut. Turley has made just two starts this year and comes in with a 12.46 ERA. That’s ugly but the sample size is extremely small and one of those starts came against the red-hot Indians. Now the market has put far too much emphasis on his surface ERA while we’ll focus on the positives that include an elite groundball rate in the minors that has carried over to this level and the seven K’s he has produced in nine innings. At the end of the day, the South Side can certainly win here but in no way do they deserve this billing. As value bettors, Minnesota is the prudent choice here.

ATLANTA -1½ +140 over San Fran

Many expected Jaime Garcia would have a tough time duplicating the 2.43 ERA he sported in 2015, but it was tough to foresee what transpired in 2016. Though his health finally cooperated, allowing him to complete more than 130 innings for the first time since 2011, his ERA soared to an unsightly 4.67 in 172 innings. Garcia’s worsened control and some bad hr/f luck were the culprits behind his disappointing 2016 campaign. This year, Garcia’s groundball rate of 57% ranks 2nd in MLB among qualified starting pitchers. His sinker/changeup combination has been deadly (sinker: 64% GB%, 33% usage; changeup: 63% GB%, 19% usage). His swing and miss rate was 10% in April, 12% in May and it’s 13% in June. It was 20% in his last start. Garcia will now face a team that can’t get out of its own way and he’ll also oppose one of the worst starters in the league, not to mention the worst bullpen.

We’ve been fading Matt Cain all season long and will continue to do so as long as he’s being handed the ball every five days. At home, Matt Cain is 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA but on the road he’s 0-4 in seven starts with an 7.46 ERA. Cain’s swinging strike rate in his last two starts was 4%. Overall on the year, it’s 5%. He’s throwing 87 MPH and now has a vile BB/K split of 32/46 in 74 innings. Over his last five starts covering 26 innings, Cain is 0-4 with a 5.14 ERA, a 5.91 xERA and a BB/K split of 9/13. His overall WHIP is 1.69 and 1.94 over his last five starts. The only reason that Matt Cain is pitching today is because the Giants are paying him 22.5M this season and they’ll pitch him until his arm falls off rather than pay him to sit in the dugout. Cain’s only chance at success is luck. This is a dead arm pitching at the highest level only because everything is about money. Matt Cain must be faded and should be the poster boy for why not all starting pitchers are worth your time. Fading Cain is a must.

Arizona -1½ +185 over COLORADO

We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

Year to date:

14-17 + 27.45 units

Scott Rickenbach

Pirates vs. Brewers
pLAY: Pirates +108

The Pirates lost yesterday's game 4-3 but had ton the first two games of the series and had won 8 of their 11 prior games overall. Though the Brewers got the win yesterday they had previously lost 17 of their last 30 games. This line may look a little 'off' considering that the Pirates are such a small road dog here even though they are only 14-21 in road games this season. However, don't be fooled by the small offering on the Brewers money line at home here. Milwaukee has averaged just 2.5 runs per game in their last 4 games and Ivan Nova gets the start for the Pirates here and he has a stellar 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his two career starts against the Brewers. Milwaukee has Chase Anderson on the mound and he has been on a strong run of late. However, he did allow 2 homers to the light-hitting Padres in his most recent start and the Pirates had averaged 5 runs per game in their last 11 games before being held to just 3 runs yesterday. Also, the Bucs faced Anderson 3 times very late last season so they have some familiarity with Anderson and I like the fact that Pittsburgh is 15-9 in day games this season. The Brewers have a losing record in day games this season and the Pirates have a .342 on base percentage in day games. They'll manufacture some runs in this one and that should be plenty of run support the way that Nova has been pitching. The Brewers were outhit again yesterday but rallied for 3 runs in the later innings for a win. The Pirates get payback today!

Rocky Atkinson

San Francisco at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -140

The San Francisco Giants travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves on Thursday night. San Francisco is 27-47 SU overall this year while Atlanta comes in with a 33-38 SU overall record on the season. Matt Cain is 3-6 with a 4.87 ERA overall this year, 0-4 with a 7.46 ERA on the road this season and 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA his last 3 starts. He has more walks (20) thank strike outs (18) when pitching away from home this year. Jaime Garcia is 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA in his 8 career starts vs San Francisco. San Francisco is scoring only 3.7 runs per game overall this year, 3.2 runs per game against left handed starters, 3.7 runs per game on grass and 3.7 runs per game at night this season. San Francisco is allowing 5.8 runs per game on the road this year and 7.3 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Atlanta is scoring 6.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall where they have a team batting average of .313. San Francisco is 6-16 this year on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!

Mike Lundin

San Francisco at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -144

The San Francisco Giants are 1-8 through their last nine games and they've lost five of Matt Cain's (3-6, 4.99 ERA) last six starts. Cain himself has posted a 6.25 ERA during that stretch.

The Atlanta Braves hand the ball to left-hander Jaime Garcia (2-5, 3.59 ERA) who held the Giants scoreless through 6 2/3 frames on May 26 to improve to 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA in his career against San Francisco. Garcia had compiled a 1.49 ERA in his last five starts before getting lit up by Miami his last turn, and this looks like a good spot to bounce back with a solid outing.

The Giants are 1-7 in their last eight games vs. a left-handed starter.