Matt Josephs
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Pirates +108
Ivan Nova has won two straight starts and is now facing off against Milwaukee. He's 7-4 with a 2.91 ERA in 14 starts for the Buccos. Nova doesn't walk hitters and has been good at limiting big innings. He saw the Brewers twice last season holding them to three runs and eight hits in 12 innings. Milwaukee is hitting .236 in day games and just don't have that fierce of a lineup right now. Chase Anderson is putting up some good numbers right now. He's striking out batters, but I'm just not convinced in his success. Pittsburgh's had some success this series and should continue to do so on Thursday. Pittsburgh is putting up nearly five runs per game on the road. They are 15-9 in day games where they are hitting .268. Milwaukee's bullpen has 19 losses and 11 blown saves. I think that Pittsburgh is a good bet on Thursday.
Jimmy Boyd
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Play: Blue Jays -133
Toronto has taken 2 of 3 in this 4-game set against the Rangers and I like their chances of adding another win in the series finale behind their ace Marcus Stroman, who is sitting at 7-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 14 starts. Stroman has been especially good on the road, where's he's 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA in 6 starts. He also comes into this start pitching extremely well with a 2.70 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last 3 starts. To top it off, Stroman owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Rangers.
Texas will counter here with Martin Perez, who has really been struggling of late. Perez has a 7.07 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also not had great luck when taking the mound in day games, as he's got a 5.30 ERA and 1.710 WHIP in 7 day starts. With the Blue Jays having scored 7 runs in 3 of their last 4 games, I look for the Rangers to struggle to keep this one competitive given the two starters going.
Dave Essler
White Sox/Twins Over 10
Turley hasn't shown the ability to get anyone out yet, Minnesota knows Quintana as well as anyone - both pens are marginal on a good day. Jerry Meals has been an under ump lately, but those recent "unders" were with elite pitchers, bad teams, or big parks. The weather (possible t-storms) could play a factor, but often times if there's a long enough delay it gets the starters out - I suppose we want Turley in, however.
Brandon Lee
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Indians -116
The Indians are worth a look here as a short road favorite agaisnt the Orioles on Thursday. Cleveland bounced right back from Tuesday's defeat with a 5-1 win and are now 7-1 over their last 8 games. A stretch in which they have been absolutely hitting the cover off the baseball. The Indians have scored at least 5 runs with 10+ hits in all 8 games during this stretch. Have to like their chances of keeping it going against Baltimore's Wade Miley, who has alllowed 16 runs on 20 hits and 8 walks over his last 3 starts. Indians will send out Mike Clevinger, who pitched well on the road at Minnesota in his last outing and owns a 2.61 ERA and 0.919 WHIP over 4 road starts this season.
STEVE JANUS
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -117
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ARIZONA) - NL team with a low on-base percentage (.350 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games. This system is 179-73 (71%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
DOC'S SPORTS
Tigers vs. Mariners
Play: Tigers +110
The Detroit Tigers visit Safeco Field on Thursday, June 22, 2017 to play the Seattle Mariners. The probable starters are Daniel Norris for the Tigers and Yovani Gallardo for the Mariners.
The opening line for this matchup has Detroit at +108 and Seattle at -118. The Tigers have a 36-30-4 over/under record and a 35-35-0 run line mark. The Mariners are 34-39-0 against the run line and have a 34-36-3 over/under record.
Valuable Detroit Tigers Betting Trends
The Detroit Tigers are 36-30-4 against the over/under
The Detroit Tigers are 35-35-0 against the run line
Important Seattle Mariners Betting Trends
The Seattle Mariners are 34-36-3 against the over/under
The Seattle Mariners are 34-39-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Tigers have a 32-38 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Daniel Norris has a 4-4 record with an earned run average of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.60. He has 69 strikeouts over his 71.1 innings pitched and he's given up 83 hits. He allows 10.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.89. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.12 and they have given up 219 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .259 against the bullpen and they've struck out 198 hitters and walked 91 batters. As a team, Detroit allows 9.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.7 batters per nine innings. They are 23rd in the league in team earned run average at 4.77. The Tigers pitchers collectively have given up 657 base hits and 326 earned runs. They have allowed 91 home runs this season, ranking them 12th in the league. Detroit as a pitching staff has walked 240 batters and struck out 524. They have walked 3.5 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.46 and their FIP as a unit is 4.62.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Detroit is hitting .253, good for 17th in the league. The Tigers hold a .427 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .329, which is good for 12th in baseball. They rank 17th in MLB with 8.6 hits per game. Justin Upton is hitting .266 with an on-base percentage of .349. He has 64 hits this season in 241 at bats with 45 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .502 and an OPS+ of 125. Miguel Cabrera is hitting .267 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .367. He has totaled 56 hits and he has driven in 32 men in 210 at bats. His OPS+ is 116 while his slugging percentage is at .438. The Tigers have 603 hits, including 129 doubles and 86 home runs. Detroit has walked 254 times so far this season and they have struck out 591 times as a unit. They have left 485 men on base and have a team OPS of .756. They score 4.8 runs per contest and have scored a total of 336 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Seattle has a 36-37 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 6.30, Yovani Gallardo has a 3-7 record and a 1.57 WHIP. He has 57 strikeouts over the 75.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 87 hits. He allows 10.3 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.81. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.42 and they have given up 237 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .239 against the Mariners bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 235 batters and walked 91 opposing hitters. As a team, Seattle allows 8.9 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.3 batters per nine innings. They are 22nd in the league in team earned run average at 4.7. The Mariners pitchers as a team have surrendered 643 base knocks and 338 earned runs this season. They have given up 111 home runs this year, which ranks 2nd in Major League Baseball. Seattle as a staff has walked 230 hitters and struck out 522 batters. They give up a walk 3.2 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.3 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.35 while their FIP as a staff is 4.91.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .265, good for 8th in the league. The Mariners hold a .414 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .335, which is good for 6th in baseball. They rank 9th in MLB with 9.1 hits per contest. Robinson Cano comes into this matchup batting .281 with an OBP of .342. He has 70 hits this year along with 40 RBI in 249 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .458 with an OPS+ of 115. Nelson Cruz is hitting .292 this season and he has an OBP of .377. He has collected 71 hits in 243 at bats while driving in 55 runs. He has an OPS+ of 142 and a slugging percentage of .523. The Mariners as a unit have 661 base hits, including 124 doubles and 78 homers. Seattle has walked 241 times this year and they have struck out on 574 occasions. They have had 511 men left on base and have an OPS of .749. They have scored 4.78 runs per game and totaled 349 runs this season.
Chris Jordan
Taking a shot with the freebie tonight, as I like the Miami Marlins as the home underdog, against the Chicago Cubs. And in this one I want you to specifically list the scheduled starting pitchers: Jeff Locke and Jake Arrieta.
This is a pitching rematch from June 6, when Locke went into Chi-town and lasted just 4.2 innings, and gave up three earned runs on four hits and four walks. He just didn't seem to have his control.
Now he'll be out for revenge, against the Cubs and Arrieta. This is Locke's first home start since June 1, when he stifled the Arizona Diamondbacks over 5.2 innings, scattering three hits and allowing one earned run. He's thrown three straight on the road since, and will thrive at home.
The Marlins have a good shot at jumping on Arrieta, who couldn't finish the fifth for the second straight start, in his last time out. And the biggest problem his last time was his pitch count and Pittsburgh's humidity, which made him sweat so much, he couldn't grip the ball.
If the Marlins are smart, they'll leave the roof open in America's most humid city, Miami.
Take the Fish, and list both.
3* MARLINS
Jack Brayman
Now on a 10-5 run with my complimentary plays. Let's head to Los Angeles for tonight's freebie, as I like the Dodgers on the Run Line, as they'll get things done against the New York Mets.
On the heels of concluding their six-game road trip by sweeping the Cincinnati Reds, the Los Dodgers opened a nine-game homestand with a blowout win over the Mets on Monday, backed it up with Tuesday night's 12-0 win, and then took Wednesday night's contest, 8-2.
Tonight I'll back the Dodgers, who are one-half in front in the National League West, having supplanted the Colorado Rockies atop the division. Los Angeles has won six straight and 12 of 13.
New York traveled cross country and didn't get a night off. You see how that worked for them in the first three games of this series. Tonight the Mets are back on the field for another 10:10 p.m. eastern start.
The Mets have lost nine of their last 10 against National League West foes, and will get trounced in this one.
Play Los Angeles on the run line.
4* DODGERS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Thursday's comp play is the Dodgers to once again handle the Mets in easy fashion.
It has been like shooting fish in a barrel for L.A. this week, as they have beaten the Mets in all 3 games contested thus far; 10-6, 12-0 and 8-2 last night.
Los Angeles has now posted wins in 6 straight and 12 of their last 13. 9 of those 12 victories have come by 2 runs or better, and that of course includes the first 3 in this concluding series.
New York has lost 7 of their last 9 games, and all 7 of the losses have come by at least 2 runs.
It really doesn't matter to me who is pitching in this game, the landslide has commenced, and the Mets are on the wrong end of the slide.
Go ahead and lay the -1 1/2 runs with the Dodgers to complete the 4 game sweep.
3* L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Thursday's free play winner is the Angels and Yankees to finish their 3 game set with their 3rd Over in as many meetings.
Los Angeles is on a 3 game Over tear, and the Over stands at 5-1-1 their last 7 games overall. Throw in the fact starter Jesse Chavez has an ERA of 5.51 over his last 3 starts tells me we will see the runs cross on Thursday.
New York is now 5-2 Over in their last 7 games played, and the Over sits at 9-4 their last 13 games overall.
Yankees starter Luis Severino was hit hard his last trip to the hill, as 2 of his last 3 starts have played Over the total. For the season 8 of Severino's 13 starts have also landed Over the posted price.
Crooked digits have been plentiful in the Bronx this week, and still will be on Thursday night.
Angels-Yankees Over the total.
2* L.A. ANGELS-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Thursday night is on the Seattle Mariners over the Detroit Tigers, as the two continue their series in the Pacific Northwest. I scored with the M's the last three nights, and tonight I'm rolling with them again.
Do not worry about listing pitchers for this one.
Did you see how the Mariners won last night? I enjoyed it thoroughly, as everyone marveled over the possibility of Justin Verlander twirling a perfect game, he unraveled in the sixth inning, and the Mariners came from behind to eventually win.
It's the final game of a four-game set, and the Mariners will take full advantage of the struggling Tigers, who have lost five in a row. Detroit has also dropped nine of 12, and is a mere 14-23 on the highway.
Seattle, now in second place in the American League West, is 23-13 at home. And while the M's rank ninth in the league with a .265 batting average, Detroit has a 4.81 ERA in the bigs, which is the seventh-worst in the league.
The bonus for us here, is Andrew Moore making his MLB debut. That's an advantage for the Mariners, as Moore is being called up to replace veteran Yovani Gallardo in the rotation. He is Seattle's No. 4 prospect, per MLBPipeline.com, and was 4-3, 2.72 ERA in 14 games between Triple-A Tacoma and Double-A Arkansas. I like the fact we get him on the hill.
Let's stick with Seattle tonight for my free selection.
2* MARINERS
JACK JONES
Mets vs. Dodgers
Play: Mets +145
The New York Mets will be motivated to avoid the sweep after dropping each of the first three games in this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers. For the first time in the series Thursday, they'll actually have the edge on the mound tonight.
Steven Matz has been very sharp in his return from injury. He has gone 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two starts while covering 14 innings and going deep into both games. Matz is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in three career starts against the Dodgers.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has been the weak link in the Dodgers' rotation this season. The left-hander is 3-6 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.448 WHIP in 11 starts, including 1-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last three. The Mets are hitting .261 and scoring 5.5 runs per game on the road this season.
The Mets are 26-14 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. The Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. New York is 10-4 in Matz's last 14 road starts. The Dodgers are 4-10 in Ryu's last 14 starts overall.
Stephen Nover
Cubs vs. Marlins
Play: Cubs -122
Granted, Jake Arrieta isn't the same pitcher he was in 2015 when he won the NL Cy Young Award. Arrieta is 6-5 with a 4.64 ERA. His fastball velocity is down to 91.8 mph from 93.8 last year.
But Arrieta still rates a strong edge against Marlins starter Jeff Locke and the defending world champions still are much superior to the Marlins.
Arrieta has a good track record versus Miami with a 1.42 ERA in three career starts. He'll be helped pitching at Marlins Park, a pitcher's park.
Locke may be the worst player ever to appear in an All-Star game. He's 0-2 with a 4.58 in four starts this season after coming off the DL. The southpaw is 1-5 lifetime against the Cubs with a 5.98 ERA in 13 appearances, including 11 starts.
Wildness is an issue with Locke and the Cubs draw the most walks versus lefties of any team. It's one of the reasons why the Cubs have won 63 percent of their games against lefty starters this season.
Bruce Marshall
Angels / Yankees
Pick: Over
The Yankees finally broke their 7-game losing streak last night at the expense of the Halos and can be expected to pick up where they left off last night behind starter Luis Severino, who has allowed only one run and six hits over 15 IP in his last two starts at Yankee Stadium and boasts of a solid 2.99 ERA. Meanwhile Jesse Chavez has been unremarkable on the mound for the Halos with an ERA hovering near 5 all season. Expect some runs scored tonight in The Bronx.
JOHN MARTIN
Cubs vs. Marlins
Play: Cubs -128
Jake Arrieta hasn't been his same dominant self this season with a 4.63 ERA in 14 starts, but that's why we are getting him at a reasonable price today against the Marlins. And he does have 86 K's in 77 2/3 innings, so he still has some great stuff. And Arrieta has gone 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in three starts against the Marlins in his career. Jeff Locke is 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA in four starts for the Marlins. Locke has been awful against the Cubs, going 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 11 starts against them. The Cubs are scoring 5.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.