DAVE COKIN
SAN DIEGO AT CINCINNATI
PLAY: SAN DIEGO +102
I’ll call this game pretty close on the pitching. Both Christian Friedrich and John Lamb are what amounts to finesse lefties. Each throws in the 90 range, neither blows away anyone with his stuff. Friedrich has the slightly better numbers overall among those I put the most focus on, although current form is basically a wash.
I make the offense and the bullpen the keys here. The Cincy relievers have shown some improvement lately after being historically awful for two months, so it’s not a slam dunk to fade them late anymore. But I’d still rather trust the San Diego pen guys if it’s close toward the finish.
The bigger deal is the massive differential on splits for the Padres. They’re pretty feeble against righties, but this team has put up some very good numbers against lefties, and they’re facing a very average southpaw tonight. I therefore have some faith the Friars can get at least a few runs on the scoreboard tonight.
So with what I’ll call a pitching lean on Friedrich and the Friars getting to hit against a low-end southpaw, I think San Diego is worth a bet as long as they’re plus anything on the money line. They are currently plus a few pennies, so I’ll make the Padres the Thursday comp.
Sleepyj
Giants +102
I don't like what I'm seeing from the Pirates right now..A team that is struggling and a Giants team that is surging...Giants have been playing great baseball and the hit are coming in bunches...The Giants pitching has been good enough to get them wins over the last two weeks...Pirates on the other hand haven;t been so fortunate...Pitching for the Pirates has become rather bad and the bullpen has been down as well...We expected the Pirates rotation and bullpen to be rather strong this year, but it's been a regression big time..Pirate bats can always come alive, but facing Suarez can be tough here today..Pirates blew a 6-1 lead last night and i'm worried this team will be down and out today..This is a good spot for a young pitcher filling in to make his mark..This now becomes his biggest start of his young career..Suarez has a 3.69 ERA and a WHIP of 1.11...he has yet to surrender the long ball and his games are rather good...He only allows about 5 or 6 hits a game..1 walk and strikes out about 3 or 4 on avg...Those numbers are good enough to hang around, but he will need to increase them today to the positive...One of the benefits for Suarez is the fact that the Pirates lineup hasn't seen him yet...I think he duels here today....On the other side we get Neise for the Pirates..he has been one of the better guys on the staff, but he isn't anything to write home about...Up and down for most of the season, but he does have his good days...I'm worried though facing this deep Giants lineup just how good he can be...Both teams hit rather well for the pitchers they face tonight..I'm not sold that the Pirates will go cold facing a RHP....They hit them rather well and the same goes for SF Vs. LHP....I'm looking at the bullpens here and I think the Giants get the nod here...I'm concerned how the Pirates lost yesterday and that alone can dampen the overall mood....This one might be close, but I like what I'm seeing overall from the Giants.
Rob Vinciletti
Mets vs. Braves
Play: Mets -155
The Mets are ok after learning Syndergaard and Cespedes will avoid the DL. Now they will look to turn the tables on Atlanta who embarrassed them with a 3 game sweep at Citifield last weekend. The Mets are 7-0 here and 13-1 as a favorites off a 1 run win scoring 4 or less runs. The Braves are 1-11 as a home dog from +125 to +175 and just had their 6 game win streak snapped. The Mets have Harvey and he has better current form with a 2.84 era in last 3 starts compared to 9.20 for Braves starter Wisler. The Mets are also in a solid 19-3 system that plays on certain road favorites off a home win vs a team off a road dog loss. Mets take the opener tonight.
Mike Lundin
White Sox vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -1½
The Boston Red Sox have lost five of their past seven and three straight against the Chicago White Sox. I doubt they'll let the White Sox complete the sweep though facing the struggling James Shields on the mound today.
Shields (2-9, 6.28 ERA) has been a huge disappointment for Chicago since coming over from the Padres. Shields has allowed 32 hits, 31 earned runs and seven home runs, all while logging just a total of 11 1/3 innings through his last four starts, the last three with Chicago. He figures to be lit up today as well as he's 2-9 with a 5.42 ERA in 13 starts at Fenway Park.
Boston turns to Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.76) who is coming off a solid outing when he held the Mariners to a pair of runs through six innings of a 6-2 win. Porcello is 10-8 with a 4.09 ERA in 21 career starts against the White Sox, and while several White Sox hitters have decent numbers against him I expect the run support he'll receive to be enough for a Boston win.
Red Sox are 6-0 in Porcello's six home starts this year, and the 27 year old has been credited with the decision each time behind a 3.03 ERA.
Marc Lawrence
San Diego at Cincinnati
Play: San Diego -102
Edges - Padres: Christian Friederich 0.47 ERA away as opposed to 5.57 ERA at home this season; and 4-2 team starts at night this season. Reds: John Lamb 1-4 home team starts. With Lamb sporting a 5.55 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in his last seven starts, we recommend a 1* play on San Diego.
Jim Feist
Cubs vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7½
Miami is a big stadium and a pair of teams that know how to pitch square off: Miami ranks No. 13 in baseball in team ERA, while the Cubbies are No. 1. Chicago has 32-year old ace lefty John Lester (9-3, 2.06 ERA) on the mound, with batters hitting .213 off him. He has a 92-20 strikeout to walk ratio, off a 4-3 win at Wrigley over the Pirates. He is 5-1 on the road with a 1.69 ERA. Chicago is 10-2 under the total against a winning team and faces a Miami team on a strong run under the total this week. The Under is 10-2-1 in the Marlins last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Frank Jordan
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox +207
This battle of the laundry has been a good series for the Chisox as they have won three straight two runs games 3-1, 3-1, and 8-6. Today's series finale is an interesting one as James Shields is on the mound who is not having such a great year at 2-9 with a 6.28 ERA. Shields is used to pitching in Fenway and in his last three starts there he is 2-0 with 20 innings pitched, just four runs allowed on 16 hits and has struck out 16. Look for this to be the boost Shields needs to throw a good game and turn things around for the better. Boston is countering with 8-2 Rick Porcello who is throwing to a 3.76 ERA. Porcello has enjoyed the home cooking with a perfect 6-0 mark at Fenway and 3.03 ERA. Porcello is also doing well in day games with a 3-0 mark in five starts this season. Look for a great pitchers duel between these two solid pitchers, but the series trend will continue as the White Sox win 4-2.
Jesse Schule
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -134
I have to say I found it a little shocking when the Giants let go of two time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. The Freak suffered through control problems the last few years, but he's still just 32 years old. He only pitched 15 games in 2015, but his numbers weren't bad at all (7-4 with a 4.13 ERA). I thought is was shrewd move for the Angels to give the veteran another shot, and it looked even better when he allowed just one run on four hits over six innings in his season debut at Oakland. He'll face the A's again just five days later, and this looks like a great spot to back the Halos at home. Kendall Graveman will toe the slab for Oakland, and he has struggled this season. Graveman (2-6, 4.87 ERA) allowed one run on three hits over seven innings in a no-decision versus the Angels his last time out. That was at home in Oakland, and he's just 1-3 with a 7.03 ERA in seven starts on the road this season. He better keep an eye on Albert Pujols, who is 5-for-10 with a home run in previous meetings. Oakland ranks dead last in the American League in runs scored.
Big Al
Seattle vs. Detroit
Pick: Over
The Tigers are in need of some starting pitching help and they're hoping to receive it via the return of youngster Daniel Norris who will be making his first start of the season this afternoon. Norris was out of action early on this season with a strained back but came back at the end of April. Since then, Norris has been preparing for a possible return to the Majors (he had 13 starts combined last season between the Blue Jays and Tigers) in the Minor Leagues and the Tigers are finally ready to put Norris back out there. The only problem is that Norris did very little over the past two months between Lakeland (FL) and Toledo to indicate that he is ready for a return to the Bigs. In 13 Minor League starts this season, Norris is 4-6 with an ugly 4.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. About the only thing in Norris' favor this afternoon is the fact that the Mariners will be turning to a starter who is less experienced at the Big League level than he is. 24-year-old RH Adrian Sampson will be getting just his second MLB start today and the M's certainly hope this one goes better than his debut in which he allowed four runs on eight hits in just 4 2/3 innings. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and 12-5-1 in the last 18 in Detroit.
Will Rogers
A's vs. Angels
Pick: Under
The Los Angeles Angels have started the week by dropping three games at Houston, and the play Game 1 of a home series versus the Oakland Athletics tonight. The Halos took two of three at Oakland last weekend and two of the three games in that series went under the total.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Halos hand the ball to Tim Lincecum (1-0, 1.50 ERA). The veteran is back in the majors following a year of rebab from hip surgery, and he impressed in his comeback last week when he held the A's to one run on four hits in six innings of a 7-1 victory. The performance improved his lifetime numbers against Oakland to 6-3 with a 2.60 ERA in 11 career starts. The A's counter with Kendall Graveman (2-6, 4.87 ERA) who pitched well against LA in his last start.
2. Oakland's Offensive Woes - The A's have scored a total of just 11 runs in their last six games and they rank dead last in the AL in runs, RBI, on-base percentage and OPS this season.
3. X-Factor - Oakland has played six straight unders on the road, and the Angels have failed to reach the number in five of their last six overall.
Scott Rickenbach
Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have slumped no doubt but Minnesota is still a team that only has 23 wins on the season and I see value in going against them here. Jerad Eickhoff has been the Phillies most consistent starter even though he doesn't have a good record on the season. Eickhoff does have a solid 1.93 ERA in his last three starts and he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season. The Twins will have Ricky Nolasco on the mound and he's enjoyed some surprising recent success. However, he has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts against the Phillies and the Twins lineup has never seen Eickhoff. That said, I do see an edge for Philly in the pitching department today as Nolaco is also winless in his 7 home starts this season and has a 5.86 ERA in those outings. Look for the Phillies to snap their skid as the Twins get caught looking ahead to their match-up with the Yankees in a series that starts tomorrow.
Larry Ness
San Diego at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Two last-place clubs typically would not draw much interest but large crowds are expected at Great American Ball Park for this weekend's four-game set between the 28-44 Cincinnati Reds and 30-43 San Diego Padres. MLB may be able to keep Pete Rose out of Cooperstown, despite a record 4,256 hits during his 24-year career, as he is ineligible for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame due to his banishment from the game for betting on baseball. However, baseball's all-time hits leader will be inducted into the Reds Hall of Fame on Saturday as part of weekend-long festivities honoring Rose with 20 members of the Big Red Machine clubs of the 1970s.
The Padres have struggled on the road, going 12-21 including a split in the two-game series in Baltimore which concluded Wednesday night with a 6-2 loss. Cincinnati lost 11 straight games from May 11-27 but since snapping that streak back on May 28, the Reds have gone 13-11. The pitching matchup on Thursday will be Christian Friedrich (3-2, 3.15 ERA) vs John Lamb (1-4, 4.75 ERA). Friedrich's four-start unbeaten streak came to a crashing halt against Washington in his last outing, when he was ripped for six runs on nine hits, including two HRs. The good news for San Diego is, he’s posted a 1-1 record with a minuscule 0.47 ERA in his three road starts this season.
Cincinnati acquired John Lamb, Cody Reed and Brandon Finnegan (all left-handers) last July in the deal that sent Johnny Cueto to the Kansas City Royals Each will get a start against the Padres this weekend. Lamb has lowered his ERA from a season-high 6.85 on May 27 to 4.75. In fact, his ERA in June was 2.66 including two straight seven-plus inning efforts. Lamb will be facing the Padres for the first time and the good news for the Reds is, that while Friedrich has that 0.47 road ERA, he has faced Cincinnati five times including two starts, going 1-1 with a 7.50 ERA with 10 ERs allowed along with three HRs in 12 innings.
I’ll back the home team tonight.
John Ryan
Phillies vs. Twins
Play: Twins -140
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 199-157 since 1997 good for 56% winners and made A HUGE 76 units/unit wagered. Play on home teams (MINNESOTA) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games, terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Nolasco's team's record is 27-13 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse in his career; 9-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are a terrible 18-44 (-25.7 Units) against the money line revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 3 seasons; 8-23 (-13.8 Units) against the money line after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base this season. Phillies are 0-4 in Eickhoffs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Phillies are 1-9 in their last 10 road games. Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League East. Twins are 9-1 in Nolascos last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Fundamental Discussion Points Trevor Plouffe is 5-for-9 with a double, a triple, three RBIs and four runs scored in the series for the Twins, who have scored 27 times during their three-game winning streak. Andres Blanco went 3-for-4 with a homer and two RBIs Wednesday for the Phillies, who have dropped 26 of their last 32 contests. Eickhoff has labored away from home, posting a 1-5 record and 5.23 ERA in six road starts. Nolasco is a solid 8-6 with a 3.75 ERA against the Phillies. Twins SS Eduardo Escobar is riding five-game hitting, RBI and run-scoring streaks. Take Minnesota Twins.
Dave Essler
Angels -135
A bad Lincecum is better than a good Graveman - and clearly the Angels have the better players. Gravemans' ERA on the road this season is 7.03 with a WHIP of 1.88 which actually sucks - and he just beat the Angels in his LAST start, so I fully expect Los Angeles to make the adjustments. He went 7 innings which is by far his longest outing of the season - which should mean we get the A's bullpen sooner rather than later - the bullpen that's got a 5.47 ERA over the last week. The A's are 7 games under .500 on the road, and 14 games under .500 against right handed pitching. In the last week the A's are hitting .201 with 17 runs in 6 games - good for last in the Majors - on the road, only three teams have scored less runs than Oakland. It shouldn't matter if Pujols plays or not - and if he does I suspect this number will go higher.
Brad Wilton
Thursday's comp play goes early as the Giants and Pirates end their series with another high-scoring affair.
After a 1-0 pitcher's duel on Monday, these teams have combined for 19 runs on Tuesday, and 13 runs last night.
More scoring today with Albert Suarez and his 4.50 ERA for his last 3 trips to the hill. Each of his last 3 starts have all played Over the total.
Jon Niese counters with a season ERA of 4.74, and an even worse 6.11 ERA for his last 3 starts.
Giants have played 5 of their last 9 Over the total, while the Pirates have seen the Over cash in 5 of their last 8 contests.
It's getaway day, but not before the runs add up.
San Fran-Pittsburgh Over the total.
1* SAN FRANCISCO-PITTSBURGH OVER