Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Mets and Braves to pick up where they left off just last week, and play an Under to start the long weekend series at Turner Field.
Last week when the teams played in Queens, all 3 meetings held Under the total, that includes the game Matt Harvey started.
In the series, 6 of the last 7 meetings have held Under, and New York comes to Atlanta having scored just 10 runs in their last 5 games.
Atlanta followed up those 3 Unders against New York with a pair of Unders in Miami before returning home for this game tonight.
Matt Wisler is 3-1 in 4 career starts against the Mets, and I expect him to match pitches with Harvey in this one to open the series.
Mets-Braves to hold Under.
4* N.Y. METS-ATLANTA UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on the Detroit Tigers over the struggling Seattle Mariners. Though the Tigers' pitching staff has been reliable, I'm not going to bother listing pitchers, cause in the event Daniel Norris can't go, I still want action on Detroit.
The M's have lost five in a row, and their staff is in disarray. Nothing is going right for them right now, and that's not good when you're on the road against a fellow contender. Especially one that could be a thorn in your side come wild card time.
Detroit, sitting in third place in the tightly contested American League Central, is 20-13 at home this season. The Mariners have been much better on the road this year - they're 15-18 at home and 21-18 on the road - but they've also lost tough ones to Detroit the last three days.
Those losses will resonate and the Tigers will win again.
1* TIGERS
Chris Jordan
My free play for Thursday is quick and to the point, as I like the Angels of Anaheim in their return home, after a brutal stretch in Houston. Nobody likes to play in Houston, so the Halos will be glad to be out of there.
Back home, the Angels welcome American League West-rival Oakland to town, and I like Tim Lincecum on the slab tonight, as he continues his comeback.
The former Cy Young winner pitched remarkably well in his debut against the A’s on Saturday, giving up just one run on four hits and a couple of walks in six innings, striking out two. Now he faces the same lineup, only now he's making his debut at Angel Stadium.
I'm going to list him over Oakland's Kendall Graveman, who did indeed throw his best outing of the season Friday against these same Angels, but the sinkerballer also struggled prior to that, as he failed to finish five innings in his first two starts of June.
I'm going to play the Angels in this one, and will count on Lincecum to come through.
3* ANGELS
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 71-65 run with free picks: Philadelphia at MINNESOTA (-145)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies wrap up a series that has been all Minnesota, so much so we're seeing the oddsmakers put uncharacteristic prices on the Twins the past couple days. I'm laying the price with this number, as the Twins are on a run and the Phils are playing terribly right now.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - This is a Phillies team that straggled into the Twin Cities to start a nine-game road trip, and nothing has gone well. Two nights back the Twins dismantled Philly, winning 14-10. Then the Twins won a squeaker last night, 6-5, further deflating the Phils, who have lost nine in a row.
BOTTOM LINE is - Philadelphia's bullpen has been battered in this series, and doesn't stand a chance against Minnesota's hungry lineup, one of the worst in baseball, but one that is having a lot of fun right now.
1* TWINS
JIMMY BOYD
Red Sox -1.5
Boston is going to be all business when they take the field for today's series finale against the White Sox. The Red Sox will be out to avoid getting swept in a 4-game series after losing the first 3 and appear to be in good shape to do just that.
The Red Sox will have a huge advantage on the mound in this one and figure to put up a big number offensively against the struggling arm of Chicago starter James Shields. The White Sox traded for Shields hoping he would bolster their rotation, but it's been the exact opposite. In his first 3 starts with Chicago, he's given up a ridiculous 22 runs on 24 hits and 9 walks in just 8 2/3 innigns of work.
Boston will counter with Rick Porcello, who is quietly having a strong 2016 season. Porcello is 8-2 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 14 starts. He's yet to lose at home, where he is 6-0 with a 3.03 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in 6 starts.
Boston is 10-3 against the run line after losing 3 of their last 4, winning by an average score of 5.8 to 3.8. They are also 6-0 against the run line in Porcello's 6 home starts, winning by an average score of 7.3 to 2.2.
SEAN HIGGS
White Sox vs. Red Sox
Play: White Sox +216
Shields has been, I think statistically, the worse pitcher in the history of baseball his last 4 starts! So, it is either he is injured or he has just imploded and will be demoted at some point if it gets brutal again here against Boston. The Red Sox have lost 7 of 10 and 3 straight. No way they get swept in a 4 game set here right? Give me Big Game James and the White Sox as big dogs this afternoon.
JACK JONES
Arizona Diamondbacks -152
The Arizona Diamondbacks have turned it around here of late and go into this series with Colorado with a ton of momentum. They have won eight of their last 11 games overall, while the Rockies have lost four of their last six.
Ace Zack Greinke gets the ball tonight for the Diamondbacks. Greinke heads to Colorado on a seven-start winning streak and is 8-1 with a 2.39 ERA over his last nine starts. He has gone 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA in six road starts this season, and he's 3-0 with a 1.12 ERA in his last three outings.
Eddie Butler is clearly overmatched here. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 10.29 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three home starts. Butler is also 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three outings.
Greinke is 20-4 (+13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. Greinke is 8-0 (+8.5 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
RAY MONOHAN
San Diego Padres -106
The Padres head into Cincinnati here and hold value at a PK price.
The Reds march out John Lamb, who has been a mess this season. Lamb has gone just 1-4 with a 4.75 ERA as he just can't seem to figure it out. Any time he turns in a decent start, he'll follow it up with a poor one.
San Diego right now is on a roll too. The Padres have won 3 of their last 4, which included a 3 game winning streak prior to the loss. They rattled off 23 runs during a 3 game winning streak.
Some trends to consider. Reds are 1-6 in Lambs last 7 home starts. Reds are 0-4 in Lambs last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Given the Reds struggles during Lamb's starts, this is a nice price and spot to back the Padres.
CHASE DIAMOND
Mariners vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -118
Big game early as the 36-36 Mariners take on the 37-35 Tigers. Mariners are in a tailspin losing 5 straight games and we lost with them yesterday as well. I love the Tigers starter here today in Daniel Norris a 23 year old with a'lot of potential and I think he will be ready to go big time today. So we are getting a better pitcher and team with very low juice a must play for us.
SPORTS WAGERS
Hamilton +4½ over TORONTO
The Tiger-Cats have some issues to begin the year that are probably not going to be corrected right away. That puts them at a big disadvantage before the first snap takes place. The biggest question mark is the health of starting pivot Zach Collaros, who is recovering from knee surgery. Hamilton will turn to Jeremiah Masoli tonight after the Oregon Duck beat out Jeff Matthews for the starting gig. Masoli, who was on the practice roster for part of last season, almost got the Ticats to the Grey Cup last fall, but he was more game manager than gun slinger.
The next issue is personnel. Half of the starters from last season’s elite Ticats defence are no longer with the team for one reason or another, and it will be up to defensive co-ordinator Orlondo Steinauer to get the most out of the newcomers and integrate them into the system. Furthermore, offensive co-ordinator Tommy Condell retired, which leaves HC Kent Austin calling the shots early on while new OC Stef Ptaszek learns the ropes. The Ticats secondary is in big trouble also, where safety Craig Butler is out for the season and halfback Demond Washington is on the six game injured list. The fact the Ticats signed veteran castoffs Dominique Ellis and Geoff Tisdale at the end of training camp hints at uncertainty at the position.
The “rebirth” of the Toronto Argonauts starts tonight. The Argos have finally moved out of cavernous Rogers Centre and into BMO Field, an outdoor venue that will seat approximately 27,000 spectators. After years of having to play the odd home game on the road or at a neutral site – not to mention struggling to find practice locations – the Double Blue can set a schedule because they always know where they’re going to be. The Argos have a brand new, multimillion dollar locker-room too and they figure to truly enjoy a home-field advantage for the first time in decades. It’s been 27 years since the Argos played at old Exhibition Stadium. After averaging just over 12,000 fans in a morgue-like atmosphere at the Rogers Center, BMO Field will have a true football atmosphere and 27,000 strong to support the home squad. It makes a HUGE difference. Rogers Centre was a wasteland for football and a major reason this franchise has struggled to make inroads with casual sports fans in Toronto.
There hasn't been this much attention paid to the Double Blue in a long time and expectations are high. Quarterback Ricky Ray is finally healthy and says he feels no pain throwing the ball for the first time in two years. The Argos are loaded offensively and figure to put up points. There is plenty of hype surrounding this game but if football games are won and lost in the trenches, the prudent play may be to take the points. Toronto’s offensive and defensive lines appear to be their weakness and that’s a tough way to kick things off.
By contrast, Hamilton’s offensive and defensive lines appears to be its strengths. Furthermore, a healthy C.J. Gable, who has averaged 5½ yards per carry over his career should take plenty of pressure off of Masoli. Gable is a monster threat every single time the Ti-Cats have the ball. The Ticats also have arguably the league’s best Canadian in defensive tackle Ted Laurent, who draws double teams that should allow defensive end John Chick, a free agent acquisition, to get after the quarterback.
There is going to be a lot of emotion for the Argos and their fans tonight. This isn’t just another home-opener. Emotion can go a long way in determining the winner but all that hype means you are very likely paying extra to back the Argos here. The intangibles here make this game a difficult one to call. BMO Field will be rocking tonight but we refuse to pay a premium to back the Argos. That leaves the Tiger-Cats as our choice but not one we are willing to gamble with. We are going to watch the season opener and wait for a better opportunity.
GoodFella
Angels TT Over 4
The A's send out Kendall Graveman this evening. He's really struggled with his command this season. He had his best start of the season his last time out. I do not trust him to toss another gem this evening. These Angels have seen him a few times & I expect them to get to him eventually. The Oakland bullpen is floundering some of late & I look for the Angels to have some success vs them tonight. I really like these Angels to plate at least 4 runs before this game goes final & I'm on the ANGELS TEAM TOTAL going OVER 4 runs in this spot on Thursday evening.
BRANDON LEE
Angels -133
I was spot on in Lincecum's first start with the Angels, as he came out and dominated a soft A's lineup, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings of a 7-1 win at Oakland. Lincecum's second start will once again come against the A's, except this time it's at home. I look for another strong outing here from Lincecum and another easy win for the Angels. Oakland will counter with Kendall Graveman, who is 1-3 with an awful 7.03 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in 7 road starts. We are also going to get a highly motivated LA team tonight, as they were just swept in a 3-game set at Houston.
DAVE PRICE
San Diego Padres -104
The San Diego Padres have really gotten their bats going here of late. They have scored at least 5 runs in 6 of their last 7 games overall. Those hot bats should continue against Cincinnati's John Lamb, who is 1-4 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in 9 starts this season. Christian Friedrich has been a bright spot in San Diego's rotation this year. He has gone 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA in 7 starts. Friedrich has been untouchable on the road, sporting a 0.47 ERA in 3 starts while allowing just 1 earned run in 19 innings. The Reds are 1-6 in Lamb's last 7 home starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +122 over L.A. ANGELS
Kendall Graveman has one of the best groundball rates in MLB. Graveman’s velocity is also up across the board contributing to higher whiff and strikeout rates. His swing and miss % has jumped two points, buoyed by increased velocity across all pitches and more movement on his sinker, cutter, and change. That’s far more than we need to back the putrid A’s here.
We played against Tim Lincecum in this exact same matchup last week and ripped up our ticket. This is now Round 2 and nothing has changed other than Lincecum is actually worse than we gave him credit for. Lincecum threw six innings in Oakland in his season debut and walked two batters while striking out two batters. His fastball topped off at 88 MPH but it was mostly in the 86 to 88 MPH range. Several balls were put in play and many of those were hit hard, as evidenced by his 28% line-drive rate. This is a freak-show folks. Lincecum is pitching again because he wants to go out on his terms. Luckily for him, the Halos are pathetically desperate for starting pitching. This is a starter that hasn’t posted a sub-4 ERA in four seasons and his K-rate control, hr/f, and velocity were all trending in the wrong direction before he had three surgeries. He may get lucky again because the A’s are capable of making Bob Barker look good on the mound but there is no way we are refusing a tag against an “experiment”.
Power Sports
A's vs. Angels
Pick: A's +1.5
Is everyone REALLY willing to trust Tim Lincecum after he made just one good start for the Angels? I'm not. The Angels also just got swept in Houston to start the week. Take the run line.
These teams just met last weekend, in Oakland, and the Angels took two of three. But the one Athletics win came w/ Kendall Graveman on the bump. He starts the series opener here for the A's, now the road team. Graveman allowed just one run on three hits and lasted seven innings against the Angels last Friday in what probably qualifies as his best start of 2016. That said, he has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his past six starts.
The day after Graveman led his team to victory, Lincecum did the same for the Halos, allowing only one run and four hits in 6 IP. I expect the Oakland hitters to fare better this time around now that they've all faced Lincecum once. Though the Angels have taken five of six from the A's so far in 2016, two of the wins were by one run and in only one of the games have they topped five runs. Road team does no worse than a one-run loss here.