DAVE PRICE
New York at Miami
Play: Miami -127
Jose Urena has earned his way into the Marlins' rotation by pitching as well or better than any of their starters. Urena has gone 6-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 10 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Urena is also 2-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. New York. Seth Lugo has not been sharp in his last 2 starts against the Giants and Nationals. He has allowed 8 runs and 19 base runners in 12 1/3 innings in those 2 starts. The Marlins are 14-5 in their last 19 home games. Miami is 6-1 in Urena's last 7 starts, including 4-0 in his last 4 home starts.
Chris Jordan
Though the Arizona Diamondbacks lost last night to the St. Louis Cardinals, the Snakes are still on a nice roll, having won seven of 10 and sitting within striking distance of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West.
The D-backs are 1 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the West, and realistically have a good chance of being in first with a strong push this weekend.
The key is this matinee, and ending this series with a W. Arizona has the best chance in handing the ball to Patrick Corbin, who appears to have returned to his productive form, after a disastrous May.
After allowing 26 runs in as many innings last month, the crafty southpaw limited the Phillies to one run over 6.2 innings his last time out, on Friday. Today he will dominate, while his offense provides him with plenty of run support.
St. Louis' Lance Lynn hasn't survived six innings in six straight starts, has allowed seven runs in consecutive games after a 7-3 loss to the Pirates his last time out. The right-hander has allowed a career-high 18 home runs this year, and I see a few leaving the park today.
Take Arizona in this one.
1* DIAMONDBACKS
Eric Schroeder
My free winner is an afternoon showdown from H-town, as I like the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. I also like Houston starter Brad Peacock to outpitch Oakland's Daniel Gossett.
Peacock was supposed to start Sunday in Seattle, but was placed on the paternity list. He'll be plenty rested for this one, not to mention walking on cloud nine after he and his wife welcomed a new son to this world.
After 12 bullpen appearances, the Houston right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA in six starts. He’s also averaging 13.98 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter, and will be at his best today.
The Astros will chase Gossett early. I know he picked up his first Major League win Saturday, allowing two unearned runs in six innings against the White Sox, but this is not an easy place to play. He will struggle in this humidity, and won't be able to grip the ball or command any of his best pitches.
4* ASTROS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Thursday comp play is the Dodgers on the Run Line to split their 4 games with the Angels.
Always a good idea to back Clayton Kershaw on the Run Line, as the southpaw stands at 11-2 this year, while the Dodgers are 14-2 when he starts!
Kershaw is also 5-2 in 9 career starts against the Halos, sporting an ERA of just 2.68!
JC Ramirez will go for the Angels, and he is just 1-3 with an over 5 at home this season.
The Dodgers have still won 11 of their last 13 games, so play the percentages that say they will take this one by at least 2 runs.
4* L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Jack Brayman
Now on a 14-6 run with my complimentary plays. Let's head to Anaheim, where the Angels are hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers. And in this one I like the Under.
Kershaw shook off a tough outing against the New York Mets, who tagged him for a career-high four home runs, by shuttin down the Colorado Rockies to earn his 11th win of the season. The ace-southpaw lasted six innings, fired 103 pitches and struck out eight. He'll be at his best against a crosstown rival, especially in its stadium.
With the Angels handing the ball to Ramirez, they're getting a strong right-hander who is in after firing six innings of one-run ball along with five strikeouts en route to a 7-5 win at Boston. He hasn't faced the Dodgers since he was with the Seattle Mariners, in 2015, but he'll feel the momentum from this fiery series, not to mention the challenge of facing one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Take this one low tonight.
5* Dodgers-Angels Under
BEN BURNS
Minnesota at Boston
Play: Boston
Kyle Gibson (4-5, 6.23 ERA) gave up one run off four hits and four walks while striking out one over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against the Indians on Saturday. Gibson was a bit “lucky,” as he’d walk four batters and give up a solo shot to Jose Ramirez. Gibson is 3-1 on the road despite a poor 5.28 ERA. David Price (2-2, 4.76) is dealing with a finger issue for the Red Sox, but he’s been cleared to play tonight. Price is still trying to find his footing after major surgery and has posted a pedestrian 4.66 ERA over five starts in June. While Price has struggled with consistency of late, I’ll point out that the Red Sox have dominated in this spot for bettors all year by going 9-2 (+5.4 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range, while conversely, this is a position in which the Twins have done poorly in by going a sub-par 1-3 (-1.5 units) as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range. I think Boston bounces back big after yesterday’s humbling 4-1 defeat.
Marc Lawrence
Braves vs. Padres
Play: Padres -110
Edges - Padres: Lamet 3-1 at night in his MLB career team starts… Braves: 2-7 away Game Three of a series this season; and Garcia 7.05 ERA last three starts… With Lamet in strong KW form with 23 Ks and 2 BBs his last three starts.
Wunderdog
New York @ Chicago
Pick: New York -140
The Yankees still are in first place by percentage points even after a rough stretch and they have won two of the first three of this series. Aaron Judge hit his 27th home run in their 12-3 win on Wednesday and Miguel Andujar has three hits and four RBI in his Major League debut. James Shields had a rough outing on Saturday when he allowed six runs on seven hits in three innings in a 10-2 loss to Oakland. Chicago has lost both his starts since he came off the disabled list, including 7-3 to Toronto on June 18 when Shields gave up three runs and seven hits in 5 2/3 innings. Luis Cessa had his best outing of the year when he struck out eight batters in five innings against the Rangers his last start. New York has won 17 of the last 24 meetings and the White Sox have lost five of their last six home games.
SPORTS WAGERS
CALGARY -7½ over Ottawa
The budding rivalry between the Stampeders and Redblacks ended in another sister kisser in the CFL’s opening week with a 31-31 tie in the Nation's Capital. Three of the last four games between these two teams going back to last season have gone into overtime with two of those games ending in a draw. The other of course was a Grey Cup win for Ottawa as a nine-point pooch. We wouldn’t blame anyone that watched last week’s game for thinking the Redblacks should’ve have won in regulation, as they had a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. However, veteran CFL viewers know a double-digit lead late in this league is not safe. The reality is a rare FG miss in overtime by Stamps kicker Rene Parades cost Calgary the win and at best a push for their early backers. The market loaded up on the Stamps last week and got burned no matter how many points they laid. If they bet Calgary to beat Ottawa in the Grey Cup, they got burned in that game too. If they bet Calgary to beat Ottawa in the first regular season game last year, that would be three times that they got burned. You get burned three times and you tend to jump ship, which is now our prompt to step in. We’ve said it before and it’s worth repeating that the best time to jump on is when everyone else is jumping off.
When you look at the box score from Week 1, it looks like Trevor Harris had a typically strong game but the Redblacks offense was not up to their usual tricks. The Stamps refused to give up anything deep so Harris was forced to dink and doink down the field all day. While neither team had a sack, Harris was beaten up on a number of plays including smashing his throwing hand between a helmet “and a couple other things”. For the entire first half, it seemed like the Stamps were more interested in getting a few licks in than they were in winning the game. Harris admitted his team was licking their wounds and appreciated the extended halftime in the home opener provided. In the second half, the Stamps turned on the jets and began to beat the Redblacks at their own game with the long ball. The Redblacks we're also incredibly undisciplined in Week 1 in racking up 126 yards in penalties.
While the players may have got their shots in, Stamps head coach Dave Dickinson didn't get what he really wanted in Week 1 and that was a W. That will be the focus for the Stampeders this week. Week 1 was emotional for Calgary and it's easy to understand why. The Stamps feel the Redblacks took a Grey Cup Championship that was rightfully theirs. Bo Levi Mitchell has been criticized for his slow start but it wasn't all the reigning Most Outstanding Players' fault, as his receivers were dropping balls left and right. It's easy to forget how little time these guys have to get ready for the season and because of the unbalanced schedule, the Stamps we're forced to play two preseason games in five days and were finished June 11th, 12 days before their first game while the rest of the league (with the exception of the Eskies and Bombers) had at least seven days between preseason games. Last week’s tie in the Grey Cup rematch was not even close to being satisfying for this home juggernaut. Calgary rallied from 14 down last week to tie it late and that gives them a ton of confidence and momentum heading into this one. The Stamps high-powered offense led by the CFL’s best QB in Bo Levi Mitchell will not be satisfied with a 7, 10, 14 or 17-point win here. They are sick of the Redblacks already and now the superior team, at home, will show no mercy whatsoever in running it up and putting this visitor away. It’s only Week 2, but for the Stampeders, there is no Grey Cup hangover so this is their night. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH +107 over Tampa Bay
Without looking, take a guess at which team has struck out the most times in the majors? Since we posed this question in the Pitt v TB write-up, one would have to assume that the answer is either Pittsburgh or Tampa and that would be correct. The Rays 783 K’s leads the majors. By contrast, the Pirates have struck out the fourth fewest times in the majors (569) and more than 200 times less than the Rays! We mention that significant fact because it comes into play here. With Chris Archer going up against Jameson Taillon, we have two strikeout pitchers facing off against one another and we get the more favorable matchup at home plus a price.
Chris Archer has struggled a bit on the road too with a 4.17 ERA in seven starts and he has posted only a 4.50 ERA (4.02 xERA) over his last five outings. The thing about Archer is that he’s a two-pitch pitcher and if he’s missing with his outstanding slider, he gets hit hard. Mostly, his slider is on but he has a few blowups every year because he’s only a two-pitch pitcher and a disciplined team at the plate can give him trouble. We’re not counting on a Chris Archer blowup however, we’re merely pointing out that he’s a two-pitch pitcher with some risk.
Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon has a rich arsenal. He’ll throw one of five pitches at any time and all of his pitches have movement. Taillon has 46 K’s in 51 frames. He also has a 13% swing and miss rate to go along with an elite 52% groundball rate. His ERA and xERA are right in line with one another (3.33/3.57) and he appears to be getting better with each passing start. We have alerted you to Taillon’s upside in the past. This kid is the straight goods and after missing two years due to TJS, he’s getting stronger and better. There is not a single flaw in his profile, as he has outstanding peripherals across the board (first-pitch strike rate, velocity, movement, pitch-mix, sequencing, K-rate, groundball rate, command and control). A starter like Taillon does not come around often and as long as we keep getting offered prices on this kid, we’re going to continue to back him and absolutely make no exception here.
N.Y. Mets +119 over MIAMI
We’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that Seth Lugo is a quality starter because that’s not true at all. Lugo’s 3.72 ERA over just three starts this year is too small a sample size to give it credence so we won’t. However, the Mets have won two of his three starts with his only loss thus far occurring against the Nationals. In his two other starts, Lugo did not give up a jack and he even went into Atlanta and pitched seven innings in a 2-1 victory. Over 83 career innings, Lugo has allowed just 69 hits but there are no breakout signs here. For the most part, Lugo has been riding a lucky hit%/strand% combo (24%/81%). The reality is that Lugo is a late bloomer who didn't arrive 'til age 26 and may disappear as fast as he came but we’re not going to worry about that because Jose Urena has no business being the chalk over anyone. Furthermore, the Mets’ bats are heating up while the Marlins are cooling down. Playing in L.A and S.F over its previous two series, New York scored 35 runs over seven games and also scored eight more runs last night while the Marlins have scored a mere 21 times over their last eight games.
Jose Urena’s 3.33 ERA after 16 appearances (10 starts) covering 70 frames is a complete mirage. Let us remind you that Urena went 4-9 last year with a 6.13 ERA in 84 innings and nothing in his skill set or pitch mix has changed. Last season, Urena rode the AAA shuttle in the first half and that odometer is likely to keep rolling again real soon. In those aforementioned 70 frames this season, Urena has walked 27 and struck out 44. His xERA of 5.43, which is two full runs higher than his actual ERA. Jose Urena has ridden a 79% strand rate to success but it’s going to cave in on him quickly and we’re betting that it starts here against the hot bats he’ll be facing. Urena started 21 times between 2015 and 2016 without success. The book on Urena has been well-thumbed but just in case you haven’t been to the library: 24-year-old Dominican, torrid fastball in both its two-seam and its four-seam variants, indifferent secondary arsenal, good control but misses too few bats for a guy who throws that hard and doesn’t do so great when he throws softer. In other words, throwing 95 MPH straight fastballs is a recipe for disaster and that’s what awaits this stiff.
N.Y. Yankees -1½ +113 over CHICAGO
Win, lose or rainout, our three-year fade on James Shields will continue until his team can’t stomach it anymore. We hope he continues to pitch until the very last day of his contract because he’s the goose that laid the golden egg right now. Shields’ has made just five starts and they are not unlike previous ones from the past two seasons. Aside from a hot July (1.78 ERA) last season, which itself featured mediocre command and weak skills, it’s been a three-plus year mess for Big Game. Neither a rise in walks (his first-pitch strike rate is 54%) nor a drop in K’s are a fluke. James Shields is utterly lost out there. His xERA is 6.41. His WHIP is 1.46 but it’s 2.08 in his two starts since returning from an injury. Shields’ appears to lose his concentration halfway through his delivery at times. It’s as if he forgets why he should still be holding the ball and then he lets it go. The man is nothing more than an unseemly tangle of processes that is still pitching because everything is about money. He's nothing more than a mouth breathing, caveman look alike. He should be doing Geico commercials but tonight he’ll be on the South Side of Chicago while his teammates plug their noses.
The reason the Yanks aren’t a bigger price here is because little known Luis Cessa is pitching with his 6.57 ERA after two starts. Cessa’s ERA is another reason why we preach to not put emphasis on ERA’s, especially in small sample sizes. Put Luis Cessa high on our list of breakout targets because it’s coming. This former outfielder went 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA in 70 innings for the Yanks last season. It was a very decent debut for Cessa, who shows good command with his 95-mph heater and swing-and-miss breaking stuff. He’s still learning the art of pitching but he has a sweet BB/K split of 4/13 in 12 frames. He has a 13% swing and miss rate with a 50% groundball rate. Cessa’s ERA is high because of his unsightly 54% strand rate, which is nothing more than bad luck. Whether he needs more seasoning or not remains to be seen but Joe Girardi says he’s polished and more than capable of being a factor. If it’s good enough for Girardi (a former catcher and a damn good one), it’s good enough for us. Incidentally, Cessa’s xERA after his two starts is 3.12 but his actual ERA of 6.57 will have this market a little concerned in backing him. Again, pay no attention to Cessa’s ERA then focus in on his great skills and bet this one with confidence.
DOC'S SPORTS
Yankees vs. White Sox
Play: Under 10.5
I will go against the public in this one and bet on the ‘under’. I have this total set around 10.5. James Shields got crushed in his last start while giving up six runs in just three innings against the A’s over the weekend. Shields was making just his second start after injury and didn’t have his best stuff by any stretch. He has been facing a lot of very inflated totals in his last several starts, with the total set below 9.0 just one time. I think it will be in the double-digits here as the public continues to bet him ‘over’. The Yankees starter Luis Cessa has seen a total of 11.0 in both of his starts this season. But both of them have gone ‘under’ and Cessa looked very good in his last outing, shutting down the Rangers while striking out eight and walking just two. The Yankees have been playing ‘over’ lately and have been on the ‘over’ when they play in Chicago. But I think both starters will be a little better than expected and I see this one going ‘under’.
Teddy Covers
Chicago at Washington
Play: Washington -110
We’re seeing a near pick em price range in this matchup where the home team has some significant edges. Let’s start with the fact that the Chicago Cubs just aren’t very good in 2017; a bottom five team in profitability and a .500 team on the field through the first half of the campaign. To make matters worse, the injury bug has been biting, with Kris Bryant sidelined today, joining big bats Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward on the bench. For a squad that has averaged less than three runs per game over the past week, the loss of Bryant certainly isn’t a good thing!
Jon Lester won 19 games last year with a 2.44 ERA. This year, he’s only notched five wins and his ERA is nearly a run and a half higher. What gives? Simple – the Cubs defense behind him is a shell of what it was last year; and that defense is notably worse without Heyward or Zobrist on the field. Last year, his BABIP was .254. This year, when opponents make contact, they’re hitting .304, and much of that difference can be attributed to a defense that isn’t making plays behind him the way they did last year. Expect the Nats to continue their aggressive baserunning against a pitcher who has struggled keeping runners from stealing bases. And Chicago’s bullpen behind Lester is spent after short stints from their starters in each of the first three games of this series.
Joe Ross has been extremely unlucky with a career high 5.40 ERA in 2017, because he’s got career best numbers in strikeouts per nine innings and walks per nine innings. His xFIP is nearly a run and a half LOWER than his ERA – we can expect that ERA to drop moving forward – and the Nats have been wining for him all year, 7-3 in his ten previous starts. Washington’s lineup continues to pound opposing pitchers, hitting another three home runs last night, averaging a full run per game more than their counterparts in the other dugout. Look for the Nats to make it three in a row over the defending World Series champs in afternoon action on Thursday.
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Cubs vs. Nationals
Play: Cubs +103
Joe Ross is starting to pitch better for the Nationals, but he still has a 4.50 ERA here at home and he is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in his career against the Cubs, plus he is 1-3 with a 7.12 ERA in day starts this year. Jon Lester gets the edge here, even though he has struggled on the road. Lester has been pitching much better of late as he is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts and he has allowed more than three ERs just twice in his last 10 starts, plus he is 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA in four career starts against the Nats. The Cubs have struggled this year, but they are still a solid team that has a good offense and a big edge on the mound in this one.
Bob Balfe
Yankees -140
The White Sox do not have a good record when facing right handed pitching at just 20-35 overall. Chicago also has not been hitting the ball well the last few games. The Yankees have the best on base percentage in the entire league so I expect them to get their share of runs tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
St. Louis at Arizona
Play: Arizona -116
The Cardinal righty has certainly taken his share of lumps lately. Lynn has failed to make it through six innings in his last half-dozen starts and he's allowed nearly 2 HR's per 9 IP this season (worst of his career), including allowing 6 HR's in his last 10 1/3 IP. That's scary news facing the team with MLB's 6th most home field HR's. Arizona will counter with Patrick Corbin who has pitched better at Chase Field than he does away from home. He'll face a Cardinal lineup with the league's 26th best OPS against southpaws. Meanwhile, the D-backs rank 4th in both OBP & OPS against righties and they're 2nd and 3rd in MLB respectively, with runners on base in the same two categories. The Cardinals are bottom-third in most key offensive categories with runners on base, one of the main reasons they have struggled to a 36-41 record. The Cards have lost five straight Lance Lynn road starts, while Arizona is on a 38-13 run at home and have won 7 of Corbin's last 8 home starts.