DAVE COKIN
INDIANS AT BLUE JAYS
PLAY: INDIANS -125
Cleveland will eventually lose a game, but with 12 in a row they’re sure go with material right now. So is Carlos Carrasco, off a brilliant complete game shutout. There’s always the chance Carrasco could bounce, and he’s facing a very potent attack here.
But that’s conjecture. What isn’t is the fact RA Dickey is not pitching well, and has been ultra-prone to the long ball lately. Dickey has given up eight long balls in his last four starts, including four last time out against the White Sox.
No particular scheduling edge as the Jays are rolling back from Colorado, while the Tribe is on their last leg of their trip. The keys here are Carrasco is vastly superior form compared to Dickey, and it’s much the same with the current team form. I’m not even mildly surprised to see Cleveland money showing here, and I’ll play along and will take the Indians to get lucky #13 in succession.
Rob Vinciletti
Twins vs. White Sox
Play: Under 9½
The Whitesox are 14-1 under in the last game of a home series vs a left off 3+ right handers and 20 of 30 under in day games. The Twins are 11-1 under in the last game of a road series if their starters went less than 4 innings last out. The Twins have Milone on the mound and he has a 2.02 era over 8 career starts vs Chicago. Rodon for Chicago has pitched under in 6 of his 7 home starts. Play this one under the total.
Mike Lundin
Dodgers vs. Brewers
Play: Dodgers -134
The Los Angeles Dodgers were shut out in a 7-0 defeat to the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. They're still 8-4 in their past 12 games and I like them to take the finale of this three-game set Thursday afternoon.
Kenta Maeda (6-5, 2.91 ERA takes the ball for the Dodgers. He's coming off a rough outing at Pittsburgh but had posted a 3-1 record with a 1.52 ERA during a five-start stretch prior, including 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Brew Crew. Maeda has been excellent in most of his road starts this year and boasts a 4-1 record behind a 2.79 ERA while holding opponents to a .188 batting average through seven starts.
Milwaukee turns to Zach Davies (5-3, 3.74 ERA) who was tagged with three runs on seven hits in five innings against Washington his last time out. Davies has been solid lately, but he's averaging fewer then six innings per game and the Dodgers have a huge bullpen advantage over their opponent.
The Dodgers are 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game. The Brewers are 2-5 in their last seven after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.
Art Aronson
Royals vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 9
Chris Young (2-7, 6.54 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently allowed seven runs on seven hits with four walks while striking out just two over 2.1 innings in a pathetic performance vs. the Astros on Saturday. Note that Young has been particularly horrible in this spot all year, 0-5 with a deplorable 9.70 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Mike Leake (5-5, 4.25) who was shelled for five runs off nine hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to Seattle on Saturday, striking out one and walking two. Leake’s 1.24 WHIP to go along with just 59 K’s in 91 frames of work leaves everything to be desired. With these two inconsistent starters going head-to-head in this interleague contest, the OVER does indeed become worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
Marc Lawrence
Reds vs. Nationals
Play: Reds +176
Edges - Nationals: Gio Gonzalez 0-7 with 8.44 ERA and 1.71 WHIP last 7 team starts, and 0-5 team starts versus N.L. Central foes this season. Reds: Brandon Finnegan 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP last seven starts. With the Reds 3-0 in their last three meeting against Gonzalez, we’ll back the ‘Big Ugly Dog’ here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati.
Jim Feist
Giants vs. Athletics
Play: Under 7
Oakland has a weak offense but a decent young arm going in Dillon Overton, off a win over the Angels, 7-3. Oakland is 7-2 under the total in interleague action, plus the Under is 17-8-1 in the Athletics last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. They face an ace in Madison Bumgarner (8-4, 1.99 ERA). He has two straight quality starts and combined to strike out 15 in those outings, but he has lost two decisions in a row due to a sleeping Giants offense. The Under is 14-6-1 in the Giants last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Brad Diamond
Orioles vs. Mariners
Play: Orioles -102
RHP Tillman of Baltimore has been on fire this season with a 10-1 record carrying a 3.52 ERA. He is 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA on the road. He had a rough outing last session giving up 6 earned runs on 10 hits in 5 innings of work versus Tampa Bay in Camden Yards. Walker for Seattle hits the bump bringing a 3-6 mark and a 3.45 ERA. He is 2-3 with a 2.92 ERA at home. Last time out he went 5 innings allowing 6 hits with no earned runs at Boston, one of his best outings this season. Last three appearances the hurler is 1-0 with an average ERA of 1.65. The Birds, however, bring some strong dice carving out 7 straight wins, 4-0 against RHP. Baltimore is 11-3 in Thursday editions. Remember too, the Mariners come in 1-6 the last 7 starts with Walker and 1-4 in game #1 of a series. By the way, Walker missed his last start because of tendinitis in the right foot.
Jesse Schule
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -163
The Sox evened this series with Minnesota, winning Game 2 in a slugfest by a score of 9-6. The rubber match goes this afternoon, and this looks like a good spot to back the home team. Carlos Rodon will toe the slab for the Sox, and he's been very sharp in recent weeks. Rodon (2-6, 4.09 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits, striking out eight over 5 2/3 innings in a home win over Toronto his last time out. He tossed six scoreless innings in a win at Minnesota earlier this season, and he boasts an impressive 2.64 ERA in day games this season. The Twins hand the ball to Tommy Milone, who is still looking for his first win of the season. Milone (0-2, 5.33 ERA) allowed four runs on six hits and two walks over just 3 2/3 innings in a 5-3 loss in the Bronx his last time out. The southpaw has had success against the White Sox in the past, going 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his last seven starts against them. Run support could be a problem for Milone, as the Twins rank dead last in the American League in runs scored. The Twins also have one of baseball's least reliable bullpens, ranking 27th in ERA by relief pitcher.
Will Rogers
Dodgers vs. Brewers
Pick: Under
The Milwaukee Brewers have won four of their past six games and tied this series at 1-1 with a 7-0 win against the Los Angeles Dodgers last night. I think the rubber match will be a pitcher's duel.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Brewers hand the ball to the white hot Zach Davies (5-3, 3.74) who is 5-0 with a 2.64 ERA in his last 10 outings after losing each of his first three of the season. Davies held Los Angeles to a run on five hits and a walk with six strikeouts in seven innings at Dodger Stadium earlier this month. The Dodgers counter with Kenta Maeda (6-5, 2.91 ERA) who allowed four runs on four hits, a pair of walks and a pair of home runs in five innings of work his last start.
2. Home Cookin' - Maeda has better numbers on the road than he does at home, going 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA in seven starts. Davies is 4-2 with a respectable 3.11 ERA in nine home starts for the year.
3. X-Factor - The under is 5-1 in Brewers last six games versus a right-handed starter.
Larry Ness
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Cleveland Indians
The Toronto Blue Jays salvaged a 3-3 road trip with back-to-back wins at Colorado but tonight they open a four-game home series against MLB’s hottest team. The Cleveland Indians will be looking for their 13th consecutive victory as Toronto opens an 11-game homestand against the top three teams in the AL Central (Indians, Royals and Tigers) leading into the All-Star break. The Blue Jays look good when the pitching can keep pace with the offense, as witnessed by Aaron Sanchez’s (8 IP / 6 H / 1 ER) solid start in a 5-3 win on Wednesday. It was the kind effort Toronto needed, after the staff had surrendered a total of 31 runs in the previous four contests. The Indians improved to 6-0 on their 10-game road trip with a 3-0 win at Atlanta on Wednesday and are outscoring opponents 76-25 during a winning streak that marks the franchise’s longest since a 13-game run in 1951.
Thursday’s pitching matchup features Carlos Carrasco (3-2, 2.73 ERA) vs R.A. Dickey (5-8, 4.23 ERA). Carrasco tossed a four-hit shutout at Detroit last Saturday. That effort marked his third straight quality start in which he owns a 1.61 ERA and a 21-6 KW ratio. Dickey suffered a pair of losses despite quality starts on June 13 and 18 but his offense made up for the lack of support in those efforts by bailing him out in his most recent outing, a 10-8 win at the Chicago White Sox last Saturday when he allowed four solo HRs in 5.1 innings. In 13 career games against Cleveland, including seven starts, Dickey is 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA (teams are 5-2 in his seven starts with Dickey posting a 2.70 ERA).
The Indians' starting staff is 9-0 with a 1.91 ERA during the team’s 12-game winning streak. Yes, Carrasco owns an 8.62 ERA in four games (three starts) against Toronto in his career but here in 2016, his road ERA is 1.95, his road WHIP is 0.87 and he owns a 31-4 KW ratio over five road starts. The Indians will lose sometime but my bet says NOT here!
Power Sports
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets
Pick: Chicago Cubs
The Mets are a desperate team right now. They were just swept in Washington and now return home to face the juggernaut Cubs. The decision to go w/ Steven Matz here reflects the desperation. Matz is pitching tonight despite a bone chip in his right elbow. Of course, the Cubs will have little sympathy for him as they plan on exacting some revenge for a sweep suffered in LY's NLCS. They were, however, 7-0 in the regular season vs. the Mets. Tonight's series opener should go to the road team.
I obviously feel for Matz having to pitch through an injury, but I can't help but also feel bad for Cubs' starter John Lackey as well. The Cubs have lost only 26 times all season, but six of those defeats have come w/ Lackey on the bump. While he didn't pitch well the last time we saw him (allowed 7 ER at Miami), the bottom line is he has a 3.29 ERA and 1.037 WHIP, so you'd expect his team start record to be a little better than 9-6, especially on a team this good. By the way, the Cubs' YTD run differential has now reached a stunning +170 after the sweep of the Reds to start the week.
A big problem for the Mets is that they simply don't score many runs. As I stated in yday's analysis for the game vs. the Nats, division rivals Philadelphia and Atlanta are the only teams in baseball besides NY to have scored fewer than 300 runs this season. The Phillies have actually passed them in the runs scored side of the ledger, leaving the Mets at 29th in that department. They'd actually gone 23 straight innings w/o a runner crossing the plate until James Loney's 2-run HR in the top of the ninth yday. That's bad news facing a Cubs team that is now an incredible 46-4 when scoring at least four runs.
Sleepyj
Yankees -141
I got the Yanks here at home taking care of business Vs Rangers...Pineda should be just fine here today. X's and O's don't match up here for me....As much as the numbers might look wrong with how good Texas has been
Brad Wilton
Thursday comp play is the look for the Rangers and Yankees to both come out a little flat this afternoon after last night's thrilling (for New York that is!) win by the Yankees 9-7, as the teams hold Under the total with A.J. Griffin and Michael Pineda on the mound.
Pineda is finnaly starting to pitch the baseball he is capable of, and brings a 3.12 ERA for his last 3 starts into this series finale. 2 of Pineda's last 3 starts have ended up playing Under the total.
Griffin stands at 3-0 with a 3.08 season ERA. He is also 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA in 4 career starts against New York, incluidng a late April win over the Yankees in Arlington.
Quick turnaround for these teams, and you can expect some starters to get the day off for rest too.
I like it to hold Under.
3* TEXAS-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free play for Thursday is also a matinee game, as I like the Chicago White Sox to take care of the Minnesota Twins in American League Central action, the same way they did last night. The teams are meeting on the South Side, so naturally the line is a little inflated, but I don't mind laying the run line, as this one won't be close.
I love Carlos Rodon to best Tommy Milone in this clash. Rodon is in after matching his season high with eight strikeouts against Toronto. The southpaw has struck out 16 over his last 12 innings, while he's sporting a 3.24 ERA, 42 strikeouts and a .291 opponents' average over his last seven starts.
Rodon will get the best of Milone, who was wild and inefficient Friday in his first start since being recalled from Triple-A. The erratic lefty threw 41 of his 77 pitches for strikes while lasting a mere 3 2/3 innings. Milone was tagged for four runs, albeit just one was earned. Today he'll get abused.
3* WHITE SOX -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the M's over the O's.
Baltimore is rolling strong, winners of their last 7 games, and their starter Chris Tillman stands at an eye-popping 10-1 for the season!
Yes, things are going quite well for Buck Showalter's club, but the line for tonight's game tells me the oddsmakers feel this stop in the Emerald City is not going to be an easy one this Thursday night for the A.L. East leaders.
Seattle is off a loss to Pittsburgh last night, but they do welcome back starter Taijuan Walker who missed his last start due to a foot injury. Walker sports a 1.65 ERA for the last 3 starts he has made, while his counterpart Tillman may be piling up the wins, but he is also piling up the ERA.
Tillman's ERA is at 5.82 for his last 3 trips to the mound.
Look for Baltimore to get cooled off this Thursday night to open the 4 game set from Safeco Field.
2* SEATTLE