Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 76-67 run with free picks: Baltimore (-105) at SEATTLE
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free winner for tonight is on the Baltimore Orioles, laying a cheap price to the Seattle Mariners. And in this one, I want you to be sure to list both starters: Chris Tillman and Taijuan Walker, as this will be a mismatch worth investing in.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - While I'd like to say the key is Tillman in this one, I think I am putting the pressure on the Orioles' power offense, which has stroked 55 home runs this month. They're one shy of setting a new Major League record for the most in June. And trust me, Safeco Field won't be so safe for Walker, who is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA against the Orioles in his career. Baltimore is hitting .303 this month - tops in the bigs - and for the season, ranks seventh in baseball with 56 home runs on the highway.
BOTTOM LINE is - Now, as for Tillman (10-1, 3.52 ERA), the right-hander is enjoying an excellent season for the first-place Orioles, who come into this series holding on to a 5 1/2-game lead in the American League East. And if he gets into trouble, the bullpen is fourth-best in the bigs - second in the American League - with a 3.15 ERA.
2* BALTIMORE
Chris Jordan
Rare occurrence taking place in the Bay Area, and I'm buying into it with the Oakland Athletics, as I think they can pull off a sweep of their four-game, home-and-home series against one of the top clubs in the National League - the San Francisco Giants.
Oakland, currently sitting in fourth place in the American League West, took a pair of contests in San Francisco to culminate a 5-1 road trip, then rolled to a 7-1 home victory over the Giants last night.
And since Oakland has scored at least six runs in each of its last six games - a total of 48 in that span - and it is playing at home tonight, I'll bank on the offense to come alive once again and play the big home underdog.
Don't list pitchers in this one.
5* OAKLAND
CHASE DIAMOND
Brewers +124
Here we have the 43-37 Dodgers and the 35-42 Brewers. Brewers dominated the Dodgers 7-0 last time out and tonight they have the better pitcher taking the mound maybe even their team ace in 23 year old Zach Davies. He is 5-3 with a 3.74 ERA and has a nice whip of 1.118. The public is 50/50 on this game but we have seen a big money line movement telling us who the sharps are backing.
RAY MONOHAN
Detroit Tigers -106
The Tigers head into Tampa Bay here to begin a 4 game set and Detroit at PK price is a nice value play. Detroit has been extremely streaky this season and took back to back games against Miami as Miguel Cabrera is heating up. Miggy drove in 6 runs total in the 2 game span and hit a home run in back to back games as he is anchoring this lineup and providing a giant spark.
Jordan Zimmerman goes for Detroit as he looks to improve on his solid 9-4 record this season. Zimmerman held this Rays team to 2 runs back in May as he made it through 5.2 innings of work in a good start that just saw his pitch count inflate too early to make it deeper.
Some trends to consider. Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win. Tigers are 18-6 in their last 24 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
At a PK price here, this is a nice spot for Zimmerman and the Tigers. Look for them to continue their winning ways and start this 4 game set off with a W.
TONY GEORGE
Royals vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -161
VERY RARELY will I recommend laying over -150 in any moneyline wager in MLB, however in the case of the St Louis Cardinals I am doing so. While as a rule I will not lay over -150 for my premium play clients, it is warranted here tonight as the Cards are off an extra innings home loss last night to the hated Royals in the I-70 Series here in Missouri.
Chris Young is a funnel to the bases and home plate for anyone who desires it. This guy should be sent down to the Minors and for some reason Ned Yost continues to play him in the starting rotation. A 6.54 ERA on the season, and a 7.11 ERA in his last 3 starts, is not a recipe for winning. Yes he has gone 2-1 in those last 3 starts, but not against the Cards on the road. Mike Leake is not bargain for St Louis either, but I do not expect Young to make it past 5 innings tonight. He has pitched 12.2 innings in his last 3 starts total.
While KC's batting average their last 5 games has been impressive as a team, better than the Cards, I do not see the Cards losing back to back at home in this series, and Kansas City on the road is not a good bet, winning just 3 out of their last 14.
ASA
Rangers vs. Yankees
Play: Rangers +120
The Rangers lost a heart-breaker yesterday due to an implosion in the bottom of the 9th inning. We expect Texas to respond after the tough loss as the best thing after a bad beat like that is to get another chance to get right back on the field and erase the bitter taste of an ugly defeat. The Rangers get that chance with an early start in the Bronx Thursday and we look for Texas to make the most of it. The Rangers are an amazing 11-2 this season as a road dog of +100 to +125. Texas is also 27-12 this season in their games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Additionally, the Rangers are 15-7 in day games this season. The Yankees, even with the miraculous win as a big favorite yesterday - those with disregard for risk and whom laid the -200 certainly deserved to lose that one - are still only 10-16 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Rangers are the better team and A.J. Griffin has a 1.13 WHIP on the season while Michael Pineda has a 5.51 ERA on the year. We'll take the Texas Rangers with the added value of being a sizable road dog on the money line Thursday afternoon.
BRANDON LEE
Cubs / Mets Over 7.5
The OVER is worth a look in today's series opener between the Cubs and Mets. The wind will be blowing straight out to left field at over 10 mph and we have two starters that aren't exactly in prime form at the moment. Chicago's John Lackey gave up 7 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in just 4 1/3 innings of a 6-9 loss at Miami in his last outing and has a 4.59 ERA in 8 road starts this season. New York counters with the Steven Matz, who was rocked for 6 runs on 9 hits with 0 strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings at Atlanta in his last outing. Matz is far from healthy, as he's trying to pitch through a bone chip in his right elbow. I'm not buying just 1 extra day of rest is going to be enough to have him back to his dominant form. I look for both offenses to score in bunches tonight.
JOSEPH D'AMICO
Indians vs. Blue Jays
Play: Indians -119
Cleveland is the hottest team in the Majors, winning 12 in a row, with a combination of a potent lineup and a stingy pitching staff. The Indians send Carlos Carrasco to the mound. The RH owns an anemic, 2.73 ERA this season, including a 1.95 road record. Toronto gives RA Dickey the nod. The RH is 5-8 with a 4.23 mark on the campaign but is a far cry from the solid starter he once was. Cleveland is 6-0 their L6 games played on the road, 8-0 their L8 vs. RH starters, and 7-2 in Carrasco's L9 overall starts. Toronto is 1-6 their L7 during Game 1 of a series, 0-8 in Dickey's L8 starts at home, and 4-11 in Dickey's L15 overall starts.
JIMMY BOYD
Indians -110
With yesterday's 3-0 win at Atlanta, Cleveland has now won 12 straight to take a 6-game lead in the AL Central over the Royals. Clearly this team is playing with a ton of confidence and momentum right now and I like their chances of going into Toronto and extending the streak in the series opener on Thursday.
The Blue Jays will be returning home from a 6-game road trip and that's important to note. Toronto is 1-6 on the season in the first game back at home after playing the previous series on the road. The Blue Jays are also outclassed on the mound in this one, as Cleveland sends out Carlos Carrasco against R.A. Dickey.
Carrasco has a 1.61 ERA over his last 3 starts and is fresh off a complete game shutout at Detroit in his last outing. Carrasco also has been at his best on the road this season, as he's got a 1.95 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in 5 road starts. As for Dickey, he's 5-8 with a 4.23 ERA in 16 starts and Toronto has yet to win a single one of his home starts in 2016. He's 0-5 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.381 WHIP in 7 home starts.
Indians are 14-4 in Carrasco's last 18 road starts against an AL team that is hitting .255 or worse as a team, 6-1 in his last 7 starts during game 1 of a series, 8-2 in his last 10 on the road against a team with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
SPORTS WAGERS
Poland +162 over Portugal
The European Championship is down to the final eight and while many expert analysts believe the champion will come from the other side of the bracket, there are still four teams on the 'weak' side of the bracket that could still have their say in history.
The first quarter final features a team that has never been this far in an international tournament in Poland, against a Portugak team that always goes this far in an international tournament. While Portugal continues to have great market appeal because of its pedigree,+155 Poland continues to be overlooked in a match that should have much more equal odds.
Portugal has tied all four games thus far in the tournament, including their extra time miracle win over Croatia in the round of 16. This was a miracle because neither team showed any interest in winning the match playing soccer and wanted to just wait for penalties. In fact, Portugal's late marker deep into extra time was the first shot on target in 118 minutes. So why did two teams with so much talent offer up so little in terms of offense? Both Croatia and Portugal were looked at as contenders once the bracket was formed, and playing it safe against one another and playing not to concede was the evident game plan. Those two squads were viewed as equals and perhaps each team was tentative to open up and give the match away on a mistake. The result was viewed by many as being the most boring match in tournament history. It’s hard to argue it wasn’t.
Other than a 7-1 dominant win vs. Estonia, Portugal has looked weak. It were able to dominate Austria, but unable to score, and other than that, a solid case can be made for them losing every other contest they have played dating back to qualifying. They were lucky vs. Iceland in the group opener and salvaged a draw, and gor even luckier in the third leg of the round robin to draw Hungary 3-3. The match vs. Hungary showed what happens when Portugal tries to put their foot on the gas; they are irresponsible and concede a bunch of goals. Pre- tournament, Portugal was beaten by England 1-0, Bulgaria 1-0, and Russia 1-0. Their lone impressive result since qualifying was a 2-1 win over top European ranked Belgium in March. However, a look into the details of that match shows that not only did Belgium dictate the match start to finish, they did so without four of their top-tier first-squad players in Hazard, De Bruyne, Alderweireld, amd Vertonghen. Those are Belgium's top midfielders and top defenders at this tournament.
Poland comes into this match following a penalty shootout victory over Switzerland. Poland was up 1-0 in the late stages when Switzerland's Shaqiri scored the goal of the tournament and possibly of the year by way of bicycle kick from outside the box, placed off the upright perfectly. While the match finished in the 90 minute draw, Poland was more dangerous for much of the match including extra time. While the 1-1 draw may not be just, it is hard not to be in awe of the way Switzerland obtained their equalizer. The reason this goal is being highlighted here is because it is the only goal Poland has allowed in four matches in this tournament. Poland’s pre-tournament shows three more clean sheets in their previous four friendlies.
Portugal is favored in this match is because of its popularity, Ronaldo, and an unimpressive win over Croatia, who was looked at as one of the tournament favorites after defeating Spain. Seeing both Spain and Croatia eliminated before the quarters, it appears this market was wrong about Croatia. Meanwhile, Poland has been quietly putting forth quality match after quality match and come into this quarter final with no pressure and in much better form than its opponent. If Portugal wants to clamp down and play the way they did vs. Croatia, so be it, we will accept the push for the draw, but this type of tag on an equal team in better form with insurance against the tie is too much in Poland's favor to pass on. An upset is more likely than not.
Bruce Marshall
Reds at Nationals
Pick: Reds
Not a popular choice, but the pitchers involved suggest the Reds are worth a shot on Thursday. Nats starter Gio Gonzalez has been awful for the past month, as Washington has lost his last seven starts, including June 3 at Cincy when outpitched by Reds Thursday counterpart Brandon Finnegan. Gio has an 8.44 ERA over his last seven starts, while Cincy usually has a chance with Finnegan, with five quality starts his last seven.
Stephen Nover
Giants at Athletics
Play: Giants -140
The line has come down enough to where there is value backing Madison Bumgarner. He's among the best pitchers in baseball. Dillon Overton should be a much higher priced 'dog. The Giants are 17-5 the past 22 times Bumgarner has faced a sub .500 foe on the road. Early activity in the marketplace is overlooking that Overton won his big league debut despite giving up three homers to the Angels. The Giants have won 21 of their last 29 road games.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White SoxT
Play: Chicago White Sox -158
Chicago southpaw Carlos Rodon has compiled at least seven strikeouts in each of his last three outings and toes the rubber Thursday afternoon with a 9.07 K/9 rate and 22.8% K%. Rodon is gradually becoming one of the best young arms in baseball despite owning a 2-6 record with a 4.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season. The 23-year-old's peripherals are very strong, but he has been hampered by an extremely unlucky .346 BABIP. Once his hit rate regresses closer to what he posted last season (.315 BABIP), Rodon's surface statistics will begin to reflect his true talent level.
Rodon owns a 2.64 ERA in day games, a 2.75 ERA versus division opponents and a 3.00 ERA over his last three starts. He also owns 3.78 FIP at home (4.34 ERA) and a 3.70 FIP in June (3.75 ERA) where he boasts a 26.9% K% and 19.2% K-BB%. However, Rodon has been hampered by an unsustainable .397 BABIP this month so his value in the betting market is artificially depressed. Let's also note that the talented lefty is 1-0 with a career 1.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP versus the Twins, including a six-inning shutout performance on April 13.
Rodon's success should continue against an anemic Minnesota lineup that is averaging 3.9 runs per game on the road (.231 AVG.; .294 OBP; .674 OPS), 3.8 runs per game in afternoon contests (.234 AVG.; .298 OBP; .675 OPS) and 3.5 runs per game versus division foes (.237 AVG.; .300 OBP; .659 OPS). The Twins rank 27th in runs scored (306; MLB average is 345), 24th in OBP and 22nd in OPS. Rodon is also supported by a very good Chicago bullpen that owns a 2.31 ERA at home, a 3.36 ERA in day games and a 3.15 ERA over the last seven games.
In contrast, Minnesota's bullpen has really struggled away from Target Field where it owns a 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 122 innings this season. The Twins' relief staff also has a 5.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP versus division foes and a 4.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP overall in 2016. Meanwhile, Minnesota soft-tosser Tom Milone posted a 5.40 ERA and 4.96 FIP in April and an 8.10 ERA and 6.76 FIP in May before being sent to Triple-A Rochester. Like last year, Milone excelled in the Minors where he posted a 1.66 ERA with 41 strikeouts and four walks in 48 2/3 innings with Rochester.
In his first start since being recalled from Triple-A, Milone threw 41 of his 77 pitches for strikes and only lasted 3 2/3 innings. The 29-year-old is now 0-2 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 23 2/3 Major League innings this season. In his most recent trip to U.S. Cellular Field (9/12/15), Milone gave up 7 runs (4 earned) on eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings of work. From a technical standpoint, the Twins are a money-burning 10-27 in their last 37 road games (1-4 in Milone's L/5 road starts), 8-21 in their last 29 in game 3 of a series, 12-41 in their last 53 games following a loss and 6-23 in their last 29 division games.
Minnesota is also 9-26 as a road underdog this season, including 3-20 as a road underdog of +150 or less and 1-12 as a road underdog of +125 or less. Finally, the White Sox are 16-7 in their last 23 games versus .399 or worse opposition, 4-1 in their last five games versus southpaws and 7-1 in their last eight meetings with Minnesota. With home teams standing at 10-1 in umpire Chris Conroy's last 11 games behind the plate in Minnesota games, take the White Sox and invest with confidence.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Play: Texas Rangers +122
I'm backing the Rangers on Thursday (day game). The Texas bullpen blew last night's game at Yankee Stadium but look for the Rangers to bounce back behind A.J. Griffin, who is 3-0 with a 3.08 ERA. Griffin already has faced the Yankees this season when he allowed just one run and four hits in eight innings on April 26. The right-hander came off the disabled list and gave up two runs and four hits in 4 1/3 innings on Saturday as the Rangers won 10-3. Texas is on a 36-16 run and has won Griffin's last five starts plus the Rangers are 12-2 after a loss. Michael Pineda has pitched better of late but he still is 3-7 with a 5.51 ERA, including 2-3 and 5.59 at home. In six innings against Texas last year, Pineda was rocked for seven runs and eight hits in just six innings. It's a good spot for the road underdog.
Wunderdog
Dallas @ Seattle
Pick: Dallas +1
Dallas has good depth and likes to run, second in the league in points scored, and fourth in rebounds. They are playing well, winning four of six, beating Phoenix twice as a dog each time. They come off a loss to powerhouse Los Angeles, 89-84, covering as a double-digit dog, even leading by 19. Dallas has a dynamite backcourt with Skyler Diggins (14.1 points per game), who scored 29 points on 12-of-17 shooting against Los Angeles, and Odyssey Sims (15.7 points per game). The Wings are 17-8 ATS following a spread win. Rebuilding Seattle has a losing record overall and is .500 at home. The Storm ranks ninth in the league in scoring, #12 in rebounds, dropping eight of the last 13, and the visitors match up well.