Nelly
Milwaukee Brewers + over Los Angeles Dodgers
Zach Davies allowed 23 hits and 14 runs in his first three starts of the season but he has delivered strong results since with a 2.64 ERA over his last 10 starts, and only once in that span has Davies surrendered more than three earned runs. His strikeout rate is also climbing with 41 Ks in his last eight starts and his walk rate has declined substantially as well in that recent run. Miller Park is one of the better offensive parks in the league but the Brewers are 6-3 in Davies home starts where his WHIP is just 1.02 with a 3.11 ERA. The Dodgers are a losing team with a similar winning percentage to the Brewers on the days when Clayton Kershaw does not pitch despite a strong overall record. Los Angeles is 14-2 in Kershaw starts but just 8-7 behind Kenta Maeda. After a dominant April Maeda has looked much more ordinary in May and June and he has allowed four or more runs in four of his last nine starts. The Brewers saw him two weeks ago in a 2-1 win for the Dodgers at home but Milwaukee is 13-23 in road games but a winning team at home. The Dodgers have a losing road record on the season and the bullpen has been worked hard of late with short recent starting efforts on the current road trip. The Brewers have scored 4.5 runs per game at home on the season while Los Angeles is one of baseball's weakest offensive performers, averaging just 4.2 runs per game on the season with a .234 team average. Milwaukee is a capable team and this will be one of the toughest pitching venues Maeda has pitched in his rookie season as he has benefitted from pitching his home games in the lowest scoring park in baseball.
Goodfella
Cubs TT Over 4
These Cubs love them some LH pitching. They rank 4th in all of MLB in .OPS vs south paws (.802). They face a lefty who is not 100% healthy evening tonight as well. I fully expect this very deep and talented Cubs lineup to get to Matz eventually. Then we get into that over-used of late Mets bullpen. We also have the visiting club here, so we're assured of getting our full 9 innings of at-bats. I fully expect these Cubs to plate at least 4 runs before this game goes final tonight.
Drew Martin
San Francisco at Oakland
Play: San Francisco -145
The Oakland Athletics host the San Francisco Giants for the finale of their four-game set. The A’s won the first two games of this interleague series in San Francisco and then won again last night in Oakland 7-1. The Giants are sending their ace Madison Bumgarner to the hill to avoid the dreaded four-game sweep. He will face Dillon Overton for the A’s who is 1-0 on the year. Bumgarner is 8-4 with a sub 2.00 ERA but has lost back-to-back starts at Pittsburgh and against Philadelphia despite allowing a total of four runs in over 14 innings. The 26-year-old southpaw has has yielded more than two earned runs only three times in 16 outings this year and once in his last 13 starts. The line has shifted all the way from -185 to -145 which provides us with a discounted price on one of the best pitchers in the game and one of the best teams in the National League. Overton posted an 8-4 record with one complete game and a 3.01 ERA in 14 games with Triple-A Nashville. He was a former second round pick but Tommy John surgery caused his velocity to drop from the low 90’s to high 80’s. He survived his first outing vs. the Angels (5.2 IP, 3 ERs) but allowed three home runs. Most scouting reports grade Overton’s ceiling as a No. 4/5 starter. Starting pitching mismatch here as we support the road favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL +100 over Ottawa
In Week 1 the Alouettes went into Winnipeg and handled the new look Bombers, 22-14. It's a score that flattered the hosts, as Montreal gave up a late touchdown pass. The Als put up 400 yards in total offense with Kevin Glenn hooking up with eight different receivers. Duron Cater led the way with seven catches for 69-yards. The ageless S.J. Green had a great game as well with five catches for 72-yards while hauling in Glenn's only passing TD. The Als offensive line was stout, as the Bombers didn't get a sniff of their former quarterback. Montreal's O-line opened holes for Tyrell Sutton, as he rushed for 66-yards on 15 carries. The Montreal defense was great in coverage and forced the Bombers to throw the ball underneath. It's an attack they'll have to stick with this week against the high flying Redblacks.
A freak injury to the reigning Most Outstanding Player could have soured Ottawa's start to the season but the loss of Henry Burris mattered not. The Redblacks gained some measure of revenge against the Eskies after last year's Grey Cup with a 45-37 overtime win. Backup Quarterback Trevor Harris led his team to victory off the bench. The win was sweet, as Harris was near perfect, going 17-19 for 292 yards. Hell, his first play in an Ottawa uniform was a 71-yard TD bomb to Chris Williams. While the highlights were impressive and the result of the game positive, many of Harris's passes we're chucked downfield with a prayer that a Redblack receiver would come down with. That may have worked in Week 1 but it's a game plan that relies on a lot of luck.
Backup QB Trevor Harris is no stranger to CFL followers. He gained the respect of everyone last year as Ricky Ray’s replacement in Toronto. Harris had some great moments last year too but he’s not Henry Burris. We're not as confident as the market is that Ottawa can just replace Burris. There's a big difference between coming into a game you were not supposed to play in and subsequently starting Week 2 as a small road favorite. Then there’s the over-reaction angle, which in Week 2 in every football league is the biggest over/under reaction week all year. As a 6½-point underdog in Edmonton, Ottawa won outright and put up a ton of points. As a 2½-point pooch in Winnipeg last week, Montreal scored just 22. There was also a 45-minute weather delay in the Als win so many people didn’t even resume watching it. The market loves high scoring teams much more than they like a 22-14 winner. Now Ottawa travels in back-to-back weeks to open the year after a massive emotional win, in OT no less, against the team that took the Championship away from them last year. The Alouettes were rock solid last week and there’s a great chance they’ll be the more focused and rock solid squad here. Wrong side favored.
Toronto +160 over SASKATCHEWAN
If you ask Riders fans and maybe even a few TSN executives, the 'real' CFL season starts tonight in Regina. The Roughriders are coming off a horrible year that prompted them to clean house afterwards. New Head Coach and general manager Chris Jones won the Grey Cup last season in Edmonton but the Eskimos refused to give him total control so he split. Jones was happily handed the reigns by the Riders and quickly made his mark on the team by releasing some popular high profile players. The biggest addition on offense will be the return of Darian Durant who missed most of last season with an injury. Jones has brought some of his boys with him from Edmonton and now the Green and White will have 12 new starters on defense. There is certainly the possibility of some adjustment time needed. Expectations are always high in Regina so Jones will be under immense pressure to turn it around quickly.
The Argos were the big fat disappointment of Week 1. The market was excited about their “rebirth” in their new home and backed the Boatmen in droves but Ricky Ray and company laid a huge egg at BMO Field. The Argos looked completely out of sorts, as Ray was sacked five times in a game that never felt in doubt. This is the Argos response game after an embarrassing showing in Week 1.
The Argos were five point favorites last week and now find themselves as a four-point dog to a team that won just three games last season. That’s a difference of nine points in one week. It's a classic overreaction, as this market all witnessed how flat the Argos were last week and aren’t anxious to back them this week. The Riders are the most popular team in the league in terms of fan base and interest and it isn't close. Their preseason games draw more eyeballs in that region than most regular season contests of the other teams in their respective regions.
This game has an eerily similar feel to Toronto’s home game last week. All eyes were on Toronto expecting to come up big playing in their new home last week and now that shifts to all eyes being on the Riders resurrection after opening the year 0-9 last season. Saskatchewan is also expected to come up big and we don’t have to remind you how that turned out for Toronto. Furthermore, Toronto has a game under their belt while the Riders do not. For all of you that jumped on the Argonauts hype last week, you were very likely a week early. Don’t make the same mistake with the Riders. Argos outright is the call.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland -1½ +140 over TORONTO
Carlos Carrasco’s ERA doesn't show it, but he had a strong encore last year to his 2014 breakout. Carrasco handled his innings pitched jump just fine too. His high groundball rate and high swing-and-miss percentage are both well-established now and his first-pitch strike rate says his pinpoint control is legit. Carrasco hit the DL late last year with a sore shoulder but he returned with 15.1 K’s/9 in September. This year it’s much of the same with a 2.73 ERA, a 52% groundball rate, a 12% swing and miss rate and 95 MPH heat. Carrasco has a BB/K split of 13/49 in 56 frames. It’s hard to find a flaw in these metrics so we are not going to hesitate to back him in an evenly priced game when he’s pitching for the hottest team in the majors and he’s up against R.A. Dickey.
The old knuckleball. We have discussed that crazy pitch before and nothing has changed in that there is not a lot to be said about it. The knuckleball is either dancing or it’s not. It’s not a pitch you can sit on either because even if a hitter knows it’s coming, it still flutters and could end up anywhere in or out of the strike-zone. Derek Jeter once said about the knuckleball after another frustrating day against it, “I don’t think HE (referring to the pitcher) even knows where it’s going”. That about sums it up for the knuckler. It’s a freak pitch thrown by guys that were or are desperate to make it to the big leagues. There isn’t a person on Earth that can predict how the knuckler will hold up from game to game but when it doesn’t hold up, the pitching lines are ugly. With a knuckleball pitcher, there is no such thing as “working through your bad stuff”. Knucklers either get whacked or they do not.
We would much rather roll the dice with an ace in an evenly priced game. We would much rather roll the dice with said ace that is pitching for a team as hot as the Indians are right now. Let is also remind you that Toronto is coming off a trio of long days playing in the high altitude of Colorado. Tuesday’s game ended at 3:30 AM EST and it was followed by a matinee game yesterday. The Blue Jays are not used to playing in Colorado and while they won the final two games, the effects of playing in Denver may be present tonight.
ASA
OTTAWA -1
We are going to follow the smart money today and side with the Ottawa Redblacks as our ‘play on’ team Thursday in the CFL. There are a couple negatives that go against Ottawa but overall there aren’t enough to negate a bet on them here. Scheduling is a concern as they have the shorter turnaround than Montreal for this game and they are coming off a big win over Edmonton who they lost to in the Championship game a year ago. BUT they are a far superior team than the Alouettes and they still warrant a wager tonight. Ottawa put up a whopping 590 yards of offense last week and 45-points against an Edmonton team that allowed the least amount of points last year (18.1PPG) and were one of the best in the CFL overall defensively. The Redblacks were 4th in total points scored a year ago and 1st overall in total passing yards. Montreal was average or below in most defensive categories but benefitted from turnovers which improved their overall numbers. If they don’t force turnovers here, they don’t have an offense (last in passing yards in 2015 and 2nd to last in points scored) capable of trading points with Ottawa. Montreal (6-12 SU last year) beat Winnipeg (5-13 SU LY) last week 22-14 and barely outgained them which isn’t saying much. Ottawa was 12-6 SU last year and lost in the Championship game and are favored by just a point in this matchup. In comparison, Calgary (14-4 SU LY) who is similar to Ottawa is a 10-point favorite at home over Winnipeg (same caliber team as Montreal) this week. We are getting a ton of value with a Redblacks team that finished last season 4-1 SU and ATS on the road. Not to mention this Montreal team was just 3-6 SU at home last year. Take the visitor and much better team in this game. OTTAWA!
JACK JONES
Baltimore Orioles +107
The Baltimore Orioles should not be underdogs against anyone with the way they are playing right now. They have won seven straight and scored at least 5 runs in eight straight. They have put up 35 combined runs in their past three games alone.
Chris Tillman is having a tremendous year as well. He has gone 10-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 16 starts this season. Tillman has never lost to the Mariners, going 7-0 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in nine career starts against them.
Taijuan Walker is also having a solid season for the Mariners at 3-6 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.163 WHIP over 14 starts. However, he has never beaten the Orioles, going 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in three career starts against them.
The Orioles are 15-1 (+13.3 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games over the last two seasons. Tillman is 14-2 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season. The Mariners are 1-6 in Walker's last seven starts.
BRANDON SHIVELY
Orioles vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -109
I am going to recommend a small play on the Mariners tonight. Chris Tillman is a fan favorite and a guy that has won 14 of his 16 team starts this season. There are still flaws in Tillman’s game though, but he has been fortunate to receive huge run support in games where he hasn’t pitched his best. I feel that ‘regression’ is in the foreseeable future for Tillman, and that could very well start tonight.
For the month of June, Tillman has a 4.80 ERA and has given up seven home runs. The 7 homeruns are more than the 6 home runs he gave up in April and May. The Mariners have a team that is full of left handed bats and they should be able to take advantage and manufacture runs.
Current members of the Mariners have a .297 batting average and a .353 wOBA vs Tillman. Cano and Cruz have each took him deep twice. Cano is swinging a hot bat currently and is hitting .417 vs the Orioles this season. Cruz is 5-for-10 vs the Orioles this season. Tillman has a 4.66 FIP on the road, only a 11.1 K-BB%, and is giving up hard hit balls at 33.3%.
Taijuan Walker takes the mound for the Mariners and he has been much better this season pitching in Safeco Field. Walker has held Machado, Davis, Jones, and Schoop to a combined 4-for-26 from the plate. His advanced numbers at Safeco field show a 3.30 FIP, a 25.7 K%, and is only giving up ‘hard hit’ balls 20.9% of the time at home, which is very good.
The Mariners only scored 1 run last night and have typically hit the ball better at home after scoring 1 or 0 runs their previous home game. They have scored 5, 7, 7, and 6 runs the following home game after scoring 1 or 0 in their previous home game.
The Orioles have now scored double digit runs in three consecutive games. While their bats can be said to be hot, they also faced some terrible pitchers. It is expected for a team to somewhat regress and have an ‘off’ night at the plate. I think they do this tonight against Walker who I already mentioned as strong home ‘splits’ on the season.
DAVE PRICE
Detroit Tigers +104
The Tampa Bay Rays have gone 2-12 in their last 14 games overall. They should not be favored tonight against the Detroit Tigers. Jordan Zimmerman is 9-4 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 14 starts for Detroit. He has been at his best on the road, going 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 6 starts. Jake Odorizzi has struggled here of late with a 5.94 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Zimmerman is 1-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay. The Tigers have scored a combined 17 runs the past two days. The Tigers are 12-3 (+10.1 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season.
Bob Balfe
Orioles/Mariners Over 8
Baltimore has been on a tear as of late and really belting the ball as well as any club. Seattle has been a decent offensive team this year and great against right handed pitching. I just don’t see Baltimore slowing down. This Orioles team is capable of putting 9 on the board all by themselves. Look for both teams to get at least 4 runs each.
Harry Bondi
DETROIT +105 over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay took two out of three from the struggling Red Sox but the Rays have hardly turned the corner. They still haven't beat a right-handed starter in weeks! In fact, they are an amazing 0-11 vs a right handed starter and Detroit starter Jordan Zimmerman is not only right handed, he's been pitching very well going 9-4 with a 3.81 ERA. Rays' starer Jake Odorizzi has struggled at home recently going a dismal 1-4 in his past five home outings. Tigers have also owned the Rays lately taking five of the past seven meetings and get another w tonight.