Free Picks for Thursday, June 8th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
MARLINS VS. PIRATES
PLAY: PIRATES -137
I have not yet played this, but will be taking some kind of stance on the Pirates in the morning. My only decision is whether to play just the first five inning option, a straight money line wager, or perhaps a -1 combo between the money line and the runs line. But I will be involved with the Pirates in some fashion.
This is more a play against the Marlins. Miami righty Edinson Volquez is in a potential bounce spot off his spectacular no-hitter. Additionally, Volquez has huge home/road splits with the far better numbers being accrued in games that took place in Miami.
As for Pittsburgh, let’s just Gerrit Cole is due for a good game. The Bucs top starter has been anything but recently. But, like Volquez, Cole has some pretty defined home/road splits this season with the bulk of the better performances taking place in Pittsburgh.
The downside here is that any wager on the Pirates right now means you also have to accept the likelihood of beleaguered manager Clint Hurdle screwing up the strategy in some way. But he can’t lose ’em all and I prefer the Pirates to come out on top today.
Cappers Club
Cardinals / Reds Under 9.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals face off on Thursday afternoon and the under has a ton of value in this one.
The reason this game is going to stay under is Mike Leake. He is on the mound for the Cardinals. He comes into this game with a 2.64. He has struggled a bit more as of late but Is still think he will have success in this game and keep the score low.
On the mound for the Reds is Scott Feldman and he too has struggled a bit but the Cardinals a lot of the time struggle at the plate and I think that will continue in this game.
Some trends to note.
There will be some runs scored in this game, but this one is going to stay low enough.
Back the Under. Under is 7-1 in Leakes last 8 road starts. Under is 4-1 in Reds last 5 Thursday games.
Marc Lawrence
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -146
Edges - Diamondbacks: Corbin 6-1 with 3.27 ERA and 1.36 WHIP home team starts as opposed to 0-5 with 9.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP away team starts this season… Padres: Richard off 8-5 win in which he last 5.2 innings while surrendering 10 hits and 4 runs… With the host 11-1 in Corbin’s starts this season, we recommend a 1* play on Arizona.
Jesse Schule
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -116
The Red Sox trail the Yankees by just one game in the AL East standings, and the two teams wrap up a three game set in the Bronx Thursday night. I'll give the edge to the Yankees, who have won five of the last six meetings between the two teams.
David Price will toe the slab for Boston, making just his third start of the season. Price (1-0, 3.00 ERA) allowed one run on three hits, striking out seven in seven innings in a 5-2 win at Baltimore his last time out. He's struggled against the Yankees, going 5-6 with a 5.93 ERA in his last 15 starts against them.
New York will hand the ball to Michael Pineda, who is having a fine season. Pineda (6-3, 3.76 ERA) allowed five runs on 10 hits in just five innings in a loss at Toronto his last time out. He's been great at home, going 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA in six starts in the Bronx.
The Red Sox have lost four of Price's last five starts, while the Yankees have won five of Pineda's last six home starts.
Dustin Hawkins
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -138
Arizona is 22-8 against the money line in home games this season. San Diego is 39-76 against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. Arizona is 4-1 at home against the Padres this season.
Jim Feist
White Sox at Rays
Pick: Over
The Over is 9-2 in White Sox's last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter. This is a small home run park and Chicago has 30-year old Derek Holland going, off 15-5 loss at Detroit allowing 8 runs, 8 hits in just 2 innings. They are 7-1-1 over the total when Holland starts, including 6-0 over on the road. Tamp Bay's offense is #14 in runs scored, #13 in on-base percentage, second in homers. Starter Jake Odorizzi has lost three in a row in 14 innings, allowing 16 hits, 12 runs and 10 walks! He gave up eight runs on four hits and three walks over 2.1 innings in Friday's 12-4 loss to the Mariners. The Over is 8-3 in the Rays last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
Scott Rickenbach
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers
Play: Los Angeles Angels +154
The Angels were shutout 4-0 yesterday but look for a bounce back here at a fantastic price. The Angels are a sizable underdog even though the Tigers Michael Fulmer allowed 5 earned runs in his most recent home start and the Angels JC Ramirez has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 3 road starts. The Angels southpaw threw 7 shutout innings in his most recent outing away from home (at Miami). Los Angeles is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 road starts Ramirez has made. As for Fulmer's home starts, he has allowed 9 runs (8 earned) on 17 hits in the 14 innings spanning his last 2 starts at Comerica Park. As you can see from these numbers, it would not be a surprise to see him get hit hard at home as the Angels bounce back from yesterday's shutout loss. That was the Tigers first shutout win of this entire season. Detroit and Fulmer got the win over Ramirez and the Angels in Anaheim 4 weeks ago. Time for revenge in the same pitching match-up today and the price is right to step in. Big dog value here.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -116
My money is on New York to take the rubber match in tonight's series finale against rival Boston. Yankees will send out Michael Pineda, who has pitched like a Cy Young winner at home this season, posting a 2.31 ERA to go with a sensational 0.897 WHIP in 6 starts at Yankee Stadium. New York also comes in with some momentum after dominating the Red Sox in Wednesday's 8-0 win. David Price has been solid in his return to the rotation, but has a history of struggling against the Yankees with a 4.63 ERA in 35 career starts (allowed 11 runs on 21 hits in his last 2 starts).
Jimmy Boyd
Angels vs. Tigers
Play: Under 8½
I really like the value here with the total in Thursday's afternoon clash between the Angels and Tigers. Neither of these teams have swung the bats well in day games this season. Los Angeles has hit just .210 in 15 day games and a lot of those were with Mike Trout in the lineup, who is sidelined. Note that LA is scoring just 3.3 runs/game over their last 7. Detroit is better, but are only hitting .240 as a team over 24 day games.
On top of the offenses not posing a big threat, I like the starting pitching matchup here. Angels will send out J.C. Ramirez, who had a bad outing last time out against the Twins, but still owns a respectable 4.01 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 10 starts (3.68 ERA in 5 road outings). Detroit counters with last year's Rookie of the Year in Michael Fulmer, who isn't dominating, but is 6-3 with a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in 11 starts. He faced the Angels back in early May (5/11) and allowed just 1 run on 3 hits over 7 innings, improving his ERA to 1.83 in 3 career starts against Los Angeles.
Rocketman
Houston vs. Kansas City
Play: Houston -1½ -120
The Houston Astros travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Thursday night. Houston is 42-18 SU overall this year while Kansas City comes in with a 26-32 SU overall record on the season. Lance McCullers is 6-1 with a 2.71 ERA overall this year, 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA on the road this season and 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA his last 3 starts. Jason Hammel 2-6 with a 5.93 ERA overall this year, 2-3 with a 5.64 ERA at home this season and 1-1 with a 5.29 ERA his last 3 starts. McCullers is 1-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his 3 starts vs Kansas City in his career. Kansas City is 22-8 SU on the road this year where they are scoring 6.7 runs per game. Kansas City is scoring 8 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Houston is 30-13 at night this year where they are allowing only 3.5 runs per game. Kansas City is scoring only 3.7 runs per game overall this year, 3.9 runs per game at home this season, 3.7 runs per game against right handed starters and 3.6 runs per game on grass this season. Houston is 33-11 this year against right handed starters. We'll recommend a small play on Houston on the Run line tonight!
Doc's Sports
Houston vs. Kansas City
Play: Kansas City +179
The Houston Astros visit Kauffman Stadium on Thursday, June 8, 2017 to play the Kansas City Royals. The probable starters are Lance McCullers for the Astros and Jason Hammel for the Royals.
The opening line for this matchup has Houston at -180 and Kansas City at +170. The Astros have a 29-24-6 over/under record and a 36-23-0 run line mark. The Royals are 26-31-0 against the run line and have a 22-32-3 over/under record.
Valuable Houston Astros Betting Trends
The Houston Astros are 29-24-6 against the over/under
The Houston Astros are 36-23-0 against the run line
Important Kansas City Royals Betting Trends
The Kansas City Royals are 22-32-3 against the over/under
The Kansas City Royals are 26-31-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Astros have a 42-17 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Lance McCullers has a 6-1 record with an earned run average of 2.71 and a WHIP of 1.11. He has 81 strikeouts over his 69.2 innings pitched and he's given up 56 hits. He allows 7.2 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.97. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.55 and they have given up 155 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .211 against the bullpen and they've struck out 253 hitters and walked 72 batters. As a team, Houston allows 7.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings. They are 2nd in the league in team earned run average at 3.52. The Astros pitchers collectively have given up 462 base hits and 209 earned runs. They have allowed 72 home runs this season, ranking them 12th in the league. Houston as a pitching staff has walked 178 batters and struck out 598. They have walked 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 10.1 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.20 and their FIP as a unit is 3.68.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Houston is hitting .278, good for 1st in the league. The Astros hold a .472 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .345, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 2nd in MLB with 9.6 hits per game. Carlos Correa is hitting .314 with an on-base percentage of .392. He has 65 hits this season in 207 at bats with 40 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .531 and an OPS+ of 156. Jose Altuve is hitting .326 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .393. He has totaled 73 hits and he has driven in 29 men in 224 at bats. His OPS+ is 153 while his slugging percentage is at .518. The Astros have 566 hits, including 107 doubles and 93 home runs. Houston has walked 192 times so far this season and they have struck out 410 times as a unit. They have left 398 men on base and have a team OPS of .818. They score 5.53 runs per contest and have scored a total of 326 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Kansas City has a 25-32 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 5.93, Jason Hammel has a 2-6 record and a 1.60 WHIP. He has 47 strikeouts over the 57.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 69 hits. He allows 10.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.81. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.55 and they have given up 192 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .254 against the Royals bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 179 batters and walked 88 opposing hitters. As a team, Kansas City allows 8.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.8 batters per nine innings. They are 20th in the league in team earned run average at 4.39. The Royals pitchers as a team have surrendered 501 base knocks and 249 earned runs this season. They have given up 63 home runs this year, which ranks 26th in Major League Baseball. Kansas City as a staff has walked 203 hitters and struck out 444 batters. They give up a walk 3.6 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.38 while their FIP as a staff is 4.19.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .237, good for 26th in the league. The Royals hold a .383 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .294, which is good for 29th in baseball. They rank 27th in MLB with 8.0 hits per contest. Salvador Perez comes into this matchup batting .264 with an OBP of .298. He has 53 hits this year along with 32 RBI in 201 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .473 with an OPS+ of 102. Lorenzo Cain is hitting .261 this season and he has an OBP of .342. He has collected 54 hits in 207 at bats while driving in 14 runs. He has an OPS+ of 91 and a slugging percentage of .367. The Royals as a unit have 454 base hits, including 82 doubles and 63 homers. Kansas City has walked 140 times this year and they have struck out on 426 occasions. They have had 357 men left on base and have an OPS of .677. They have scored 3.61 runs per game and totaled 206 runs this season.
Larry Ness
Baltimore vs. Washington
Pick: Baltimore +135
The Orioles and Nats meet in Washington tonight, making up a May 11th game which was rained out. The Orioles won both games in Baltimore back on May 8 and 9, before the Nats won May 10th in Washington. Then, the final game of this home-and-home series was rained out. The Nats are returning home off a very successful 7-2 nine-game road trip and at 37-21, own the NL's best record and an 11 1/2 game lead in the NL East. The Orioles are in a tight three-way battle in the AL East, trailing the Red Sox by a half-game and the Yankees by 2 1/2 games.
The pitching matchup tonight features Alec Asher (2-3, 3.62 ERA) for Baltimore and Joe Ross (2-2, 7.34 ERA) for Washington. Asher has made 13 appearances this season but just four starts. Asher pitched for the Phiilies in 2015 and 2016 with two starts against the Nats, going 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA. Ross returned to the rotation on May 23 and beat Seattle 10-1, allowing just one run in eight innings but he's been hammered in his last two outings. However, after allowing 12 runs (11 ERs) on 19 hits in seven innings in starts against the Padres and A's, Ross is in danger of losing his spot in Washington's rotation.
Washington had to fly back from LA last night after a day game with the Dodgers and were scheduled to have a day off. However, they must now make up that May 11 rain out. Tough spot for Washington which hasn't bested Baltimore in a Beltway Series since going 4-2 back in 2007. Take the visiting Orioles.
SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis -103 over CINCINNATI
The Cardinals have dropped six in a row including the first three games of this four-game series. The Cards bullpen is overworked, their offense is weak and their stock is low. While we’re generally not in favor of getting behind cold teams, we’ll make an exception here because Mike Leake is an extreme groundball pitcher at a hitter’s park while Scott Feldman is an extreme stiff at a hitter’s park. Thus, when Leake is evenly priced against Feldman, you can pencil us in.
Coming off a rough 2016 campaign, Leake has been terrific over the first 10 weeks of the season. His skills have remained extremely consistent throughout his career (he was pretty unlucky last year) and has been a little fortunate with both his home run per fly ball rate and strand rate so far in 2017. Leake doesn't offer a great deal of upside since his strikeout totals are pretty modest, but he does a great job of limiting both the walks and fly-balls. Leake’s 57% groundball rate is among the best in the game. Mike Leake is not going to dazzle but he’s well on his way to earning significant profits this year and on his worst day, he’s a better option in an evenly priced game than Feldman is. Leake’s 2.64/3.52 ERA/xERA is rock solid.
Scott Feldman spent the vast majority of the 2016 season working out of the bullpen, as he made just five starts on the year. He's back in a starting role in Cincinnati and with a couple other starters on the DL, his grasp on the role is pretty secure for now, which is great for us because we get to fade him for now. Feldman’s swing and miss rate in his last start was 3%. He throws 87 MPH, which works for guys that can locate well but Feldman is not among that group. He’s walked 25 batters and struck out 50 in 62 frames. A 2-1 strikeout to walk ratio is trouble waiting to happen. His swing and miss rate on the year is 6% and his 35% line-drive rate is more signs of trouble looming. We’ve never been terribly enamoured with the starting pitcher version of Scott Feldman and his xERA column (4.75 xERA) tells us not to expect much, ever. With pedestrian stuff, he’s always prone to get blown up, thus our interest level in him remains unchanged. Fade Feldman.
ATLANTA/Philadelphia Over 9½ -117
A couple of days ago we previewed Atlanta’s new stadium and in case you missed it, we’ll run that again here.
For the first 30 years that they were in Atlanta, the Braves played at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium. It was known as the “Launching Pad,” as balls regularly flew out of the round, ashtray-type stadium that was a hitter’s paradise. It had the highest elevation in baseball, at least until Coors Field opened in Colorado in 1993. That was the big thought of why the balls carried so well and made ordinary hitters power hitters. So far this year at SunTrust Park, there has been an average of 2½ home runs per game. That’s the highest in the major leagues. The players can even tell in batting practice when it’s a home run derby every day. Why is this new stadium different? Well, aside from that aforementioned elevation, home plate at SunTrust Park is pointed toward the southeast while Turner Field’s pointed north-northeast. Wind conditions are better. Right field in SunTrust Park is closer to home plate than it was in Turner Field — by five feet straight down the line and by 15 feet in the right-center field gap.
This park is playing like Coors Field so we’ll once again try to take advantage of a beatable number with two pitchers starting that virtually have no chance at success today.
It’ll be Ben Lively making his second major league start after throwing a gem (on paper) in his first. It’s always an emotional day for pitchers making their first major-league start and for Ben Lively it was no different. His parents flew in for the game along with friends and more family and he delivered with a seven-inning, four-hit, one-run beauty. Aside from this being a massive letdown spot, Lively did not strike out even one batter. His swing and miss rate was 4%. Lively walked three batters in his first start but was constantly behind in the count. His first-pitch strike rate was 54% and his second pitch strike rate was 46%. He has an average at best arsenal and the only reason he faired so well was due to extreme luck. A reality check is absolutely in order here.
If R.A. Dickey wasn’t so bad, we’d probably be betting the Braves in this one but Dickey is just as likely as Lively to not make it past three innings. In 65 frames, Dickey has walked 34 and struck out 32. His 1.62 WHIP is the worst mark in MLB among pitchers with 40 innings or more. His 82 MPH average fastball is the lowest velocity mark in the game. Your Uncle Wolfgang can throw 82. Dickey’s 6.70 xERA has not wavered once in his 11 starts and truly, the only reason he’s still pitching is because the Braves are paying him to eat up innings. Age is clearly taking a toll on the 42-year-old Dickey, who is suffering from a troubling xERA trend, issues with HR's, crumbling quality starts and well below-average skills. Even knuckleballers reach the end of the line and this one has reached his.
PITTSBURGH -1½ +156 over Miami
The Pirates are coming off a couple of sick losses in Baltimore that may be hard to rebound from. Up 6-2 going to the ninth last night, Trey Mancini hit a two-run shot with two out in the ninth to tie it after the O’s scored two runs earlier in the inning. Mancini then hit a three-run shot in the 11th. On Tuesday night, the Pirates had a 5-3 lead in the ninth and Tony Watson couldn’t hold that one either. That’s two blown saves in back-to-back nights for Watson so he’s the new mop-up man in Pittsburgh. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh still scored 11 runs in the two games there and should have won both games. In a three-game set against the Mets prior to playing Baltimore, the Pirates scored 12 and 11 runs respectively in two of the three games.
Now the Pirates will send their best starter to the mound in Gerrit Cole. There has been many debates on whether or not Cole is an ace and we’re here to tell you that he is. How many pitchers in the last 50 years have gone at least 200 innings with 200 strikeouts in their age-24 season? Just 27. Some others on that list include the likes of Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, and Tom Seaver. Of that list of 27, Cole’s ERA of 2.60 was matched by only six. Gerrit Cole’s 2016 did not quite meet expectations, as he pitched 116 innings with 7.60 K’s per 9 and an ERA of 3.88. However, the season was marred by elbow injuries and while there was never any structural damage; it was still very sore. The side injury was the reason for his rough season because for pitchers, the core is very important. Cole put more pressure on his arm because he was having trouble with his core, which in turn probably threw off his delivery a bit, which would explain the control issues. The velocity was always there, as he maintained 95.2 mph on the heater, but the control was not. The message of this 2016 injury section is that these injuries weren’t a chronic issue. It was a side injury that led to an arm injury that made up one frustrating season.
Now on to 2017 with Cole entering spring training healthy and on time. The Pirates understandably took it easy on him, bringing him along a bit slower than his peers and he made it through spring healthy and ready for opening day in Boston. He was hitting upper 90s with his fastball and cruised through the first four innings, holding the Boston lineup scoreless. Things went south from there, as Cole got hit hard with two outs in the 5th, and he gave up five runs, leaving him with a 9.00 ERA after start #1. It’s the next five starts that told us Cole is back.
In those, Cole pitched 31 innings, striking out 32 (9.3 K/9), and walking six (1.7 BB/9), with a 2.61 ERA. Do those numbers sound familiar? Those are right in line with those 2015 numbers and he’s becoming a more complete pitcher this year. Cole has been focusing on his change, throwing it 12.5% of the time, compared to his previous career-high of 5%, and hitters are only hitting .111 off the pitch, with no extra-base hits. We’ve all known about Cole’s elite fastball, and with a serviceable change, he can now keep hitters off that heater. Cole is just entering his prime and has already produced an ace-like season before. His BB/K split this year is 16/61 in 72 frames. His velocity remains high (96-mph fastball), he's missing bats at a decent level (10% swing and miss rate) and he's throwing strikes early (68% first-pitch strikes) and often (33% ball%). Cole will now face a Marlins’ team coming off a three-game set at Wrigley so this is a letdown spot for the Fish, which brings us to our next angle.
Pitchers’ coming off no-hitters must be faded and that applies here. Average pitchers coming off a no-no are in big trouble next time out and that also applies here. The angle here is to bet against a pitcher coming off a no-hitter and that’s the real reason for this choice. Edinson Volquez threw a no-hitter against the Diamondbacks in his last start so this is the follow up. This is a pitcher whose skills have been wobbly for awhile. Last year they locked arms and stepped off the ledge. His weak command led the plunge and so fewer strikes yielded the second most earned runs in MLB. Volquez continues to have control issues with 33 walks issued in 62 innings. He’s thrown more disasters over the past three seasons then most. The emotional and physical toll a no-hitter takes is very likely going to be on full display here.
Wunderdog
Boston vs. New York
Pick: New York -113
Boston and New York play the rubber match of their three-game series following an 8-0 win by CC Sabathia and the Yankees on Wednesday night. The Red Sox managed just five hits and the final 15 batters went down in order. Michael Pineda will try to bounce back from a rare poor outing at Toronto on Friday after the Yankees had won eight of his previous nine starts. Pineda is 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA at home this season and New York is 18-9 at Yankee Stadium and 29-14 at home dating to last season. The Red Sox are just 15-16 on the road and David Price will make his third start after coming off the disabled list. Price has given up four runs, including two homers, in 12 innings. Price is 5-6 with a 5.93 ERA versus the Yanks the last three years. The Yankees have won six of the last seven meetings, including five of the last six at New York.