Scott Rickenbach
Colorado vs. Chicago
Play: Colorado +170
The Rockies are a big dog here despite being 21-10 on the road this season. I understand the Cubs have Jon Lester on the mound and the veteran southpaw is known for pitching well at home. However, Tyler Chatwood gets the start for the Rockies and the right-hander went a fantastic 8-1 with a stellar 1.69 ERA away from home last season and is 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA on the road this season. Incredibly, opponents are batting just .168 against Chatwood when he faces them away from Coors Field. As you can see, Chatwood's overall numbers this season and last season have certainly been impacted by the fact he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The fact is that Chatwood has been dominant in road outings and I expect that to continue here. The Cubs are only 5-7 in their last 12 games. In those dozen games, the Cubbies had just 2 big games at the plate. In the other 10 games, the Cubs averaged just 5.1 HITS per game. As you can see, Chicago really hasn't been hitting the ball well at all and Chatwood is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his two career starts against the Cubs. The Rockies have won 5 of their last 6 games and have averaged 7 runs and 11 hits per game in those 6 games. Look for them to stay hot here as Lester has allowed 9 earned runs on 13 hits (including 3 homers) in last 2 starts and those outings have spanned just 9 and 1/3 innings!
Jeff Benton
After a pair of blown extra-inning losses in Baltimore the past 2 days, look for Pittsburgh to settle back down in their home park with Gerrit Cole on the hill, and for the Pirates and the Marlins to play a low-scoring contest here on Thursday night.
Cole sports an impossibly-high ERA of close to 10 for his last 3 starts, but you and I both know his stuff is too good for this trend to continue, so look for him to lock horns with the smoking Edinson Volquez and hang goose eggs on the PNC Park scoreboard tonight.
Volquez makes his first start since his no-hitter over Arizona, and over his last 3 starts, Volquez sports an ERA of 1.71 with all 3 of those starts holding Under the total.
For the year, Volquez has seen the Under go 8-2-1 in his season starts, while the Under happens to be 9-3 in Cole's dozen starts this year.
Pitchers duel tonight. Marlins-Pirates Under the total.
2* MIAMI-PITTSBURGH UNDER
Brad Wilton
Thursday comp play is Over the total in the Phillies-Braves series finale.
Atlanta took last night's game Over the total all by themselves, as the Braves scored a pair of touchdowns and a pair of extra-points, as they hung 14 runs on the scoreboard to make it 2 of the 3 meetings this week Over the total.
Philly has now played Overs in 6 of their last 8 games, while Atlanta has seen the Over cash in 6 of their last 9 games overall.
Ben Lively has only worked 7 innings in the Philadelphia rotation thus far, and pitching at Sun Trust Park for the first time should see Lively allow a few runs for sure.
RA Dickey has seen the Over go 2-0-1 his last 3, and 7-3-1 overall for the year.
Play the percentages tonight, and take the Phillies and Braves to go Over the total.
3* PHILADELPHIA-ATLANTA OVER
RAY MONOHAN
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Red Sox +100
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Yankees and the Red Sox continue their rivalry on Thursday and with David Price on the mound the Red Sox have all kinds of value. David Price is just coming off an injury but has looked since he came back. In his last start he went seven innings and three hits and one run. He looked to be back of the David Price of old and his stuff was filthy. The Yankees have a lot of power in their line up but if Price is throwing like he was last game, it won't matter they won't be able to hit it.
On the mound for the Yankees is Michael Pineda who is struggling coming into this game. In his last start he went five innings and gave up ten hits and five earned runs. Some trends to note. Red Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
JOHN MARTIN
Rockies vs. Cubs
Play: Under 9
This is a very high total today between the Rockies and Cubs when you consider the home/road splits for both starting pitchers. Jon Lester is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in seven home starts this season. Tyler Chatwood is 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in six road starts. Lester is 2-2 with a 1.33 ERA in four starts against the Rockies, while Chatwood is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in two starts against the Cubs. The UNDER is 30-13 in Lester's last 43 home starts.
DAVE PRICE
Pittsburgh Pirates -140
Edinson Volquez just threw the first no-hitter of 2017 in his last start in a 3-0 win over the Diamondbacks. It's only human nature for him to have a tonight. And it came out of nowhere because Volquez was terrible up to that point, especially on the road. Volquez is 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 6 road starts this season, and the Marlins are 0-6 in those games. Gerrit Cole is 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 5 home starts this year. Cole is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in his last 4 starts against the Marlins as well. The Marlins are 3-13 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series. The Pirates are 11-4 in their last 15 home meetings with Miami.
DENNIS MACKLIN
Rockies vs. Cubs
Play: Under 9
Tyler Chatwood has done his best work on the road where he rocks a sweet 2.68 ERA in six away starts. He's also 2-0 LT vs. the Cubs with a 0.69 ERA including a 7-inning two hitter in a win over Lester in a 2-0 win at Wrigley last year. Lester also with excellent numbers against the Rockies 2-2 with a 1.33 ERA in fours starts that all went under. Nine looks to be a bit much here.
MARK FRANCO
Houston at Kansas City
Play: Houston -1½
The Houston Astros recently concluded a season-best 11-game winning streak and now are looking to avoid matching their worst skid when they conclude a four-game series against the host Kansas City Royals on Thursday. Houston dropped a 7-5 decision on Wednesday for its second straight loss after capturing the series opener.
McCullers won four consecutive starts before not factoring in the decision against Texas in his last turn, as he struck out eight in 4 1/3 innings but yielded four runs - three earned - and six hits. The 23-year-old is just 5-9 with a 4.49 ERA in 22 career road starts but has made improvement this season, going 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA in six outings. McCullers struck out 10 in seven frames against Kansas City in a no-decision on April 9, when he gave up three runs and six hits.
Hammel halted a four-start winless streak by holding Cleveland to three runs and five hits over 6 2/3 innings on Saturday. The 34-year-old has struggled at home, going 2-3 with a 5.65 ERA in seven starts.
Bruce Marshall
Boston at New York
Pick:Boston
If David Price is really back to his old self as his most-recent start suggested, then the Bosox might be a bargain tonight at this price., Price was sharp last Saturday at Baltimore, allowing just one run and three hits thru 7 IP of an eventual 3-1 win, his best effort since being activated in late May, Meanwhile, Yanks starter Michael Pineda has allowed 8 homers in his last six starts, and was raked in his last outing June 2 at Toronto, allowing 5 runs and 10 hits in just 5 IP of a 7-5 loss.
Andrew Lange
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Play: Over 9.5
When FanGraphs published Philadelphia's "Top 33" prospects prior to the season, Ben Lively was listed under "other prospects of note." Lively has had some success at the Minor League level but the consensus is that he'll have trouble against MLB hitters. In his debut, he allowed only 1 run over 7 innings against San Francisco. He didn't fan a single batter however and had only five swinging strikes. All signs point towards Lively's ceiling being that of a lower-tier NL starter. RA Dickey's long career lookings to be coming to an end. Despite the switch back to the National League, Dickey's K rate is down over 2 per 9 innings (4.41) while his walk rate is a career-worst 4.68. And those numbers get even worse when you look at recent outings (L4 starts, 22.2 IP, 31 hits, 16 BBs, 10 Ks, 6.75 ERA). The Braves won six of his 11 starts but needed to score 4, 7, 9, 7, 6, and 6 runs to do so. And both bullpens grade out as below average, especially Philadelphia's that chose to use a position player in last night's 14-1 loss. The MLB betting markets have undergone a very noticeable transformation when it comes to totals. Games are lined a half and even as much as a full run higher than where they were the first month of the season. And if they haven't been adjusted to the over, bettors are quick to pound it that way. Atlanta a great example of this with 9/9.5 now the baseline total at SunTrust Park. But while adjustments have been made and the value less than it was, there is still reason to look at some of these games over, including tonight's game with two suspect starters. Note that Atlanta has played six games lined 9.5 or higher. Five of those contests went over the total. And Philadelphia, under the same parameters, is 5-0 O/U.
Harry Bondi
NY YANKEES (-115) over Boston
Yankees send Michael Pineda to the hill in the Bronx tonight and he has been lights out at home. He is undefeated in the house that Ruth built this season and sports an outstanding 2.31 ERA and sensational 0.897 WHIP in 6 starts at home. David Price has pitched well since returning to the rotation but has a history of choking in big games and has struggled against the Yankees with a 4.63 ERA in 35 career starts. New York takes the series.
The Prez
Houston at Kansas City
Play: Houston -1.5
The Houston Astros aim to end a two-game skid at the "K" on Thursday night when they square off against the Kansas City Royals. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium with Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. (6-1, 2.71 ERA) opposing KC's Jason Hammel (2-6, 5.93).
The Houston Astros not only own the best record in baseball they also are the best offensive team in the American League. When the Stroh's are facing off against right-handed pitching they are even more productive.
The offensively challenged Royals have made adjustments to their lineup that has resulted in them being more effective at the plate. Kansas City has recorded 16 runs in the two straight victories over the Astros but much of that should be contributed to the pitching staff that Houston has thrown to the mound over the last two nights.
Tonight the Astros aim to split the four-game set by sending out strike-thrower McCullers. The Houston righty is 4-0 in his last five trips to the mound and while his surface numbers suggest he is as good outside of Minute Maid Park (5-9 with a 4.49 ERA in 22 career road starts) this year McCullers has evened out his home and road splits and is 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA in six tries as a visitor.
KC righty, Hammel, has been the major disappointment on a decent Kansas City starting staff. Hammel did stop a four-game stretch of losses or no-decisions in his last turn, a win over the Cleveland Indians. Hammel's history against the Strohs appears satisfactory with a 2-2 mark and 3.09 ERA over seven starts but those numbers come with sub-par underlying peripherals including a near 80 percent hard contact rate when comparing his work against tonight's projected batting order.