DAVE COKIN
INDIANS AT MARINERS
PLAY: MARINERS -118
When Josh Tomlin takes the mound for the Indians, they win. That’s the way it has rolled going back to last season, with the Tribe a ridiculous 17-2 in Tomlin’s last 19 starts.
But the past does not necessarily predict the future. I’m one who looks upon each game as its own random event, and that’s why, in spite of that gaudy Cleveland record when Tomlin throws, I’ll be trying to beat the righty tonight.
It’s really tough to knock Tomlin, but his peripherals indicate this run has featured quite a bit of good luck. I’m going to take a chance that some of that sweet fortune doesn’t show up tonight.
The Indians have not hit at all the last three days. They did with the opener of the series by a 3-1 count. But two of those runs were gifts, as Mariners catcher Chris Iannetta dropped a perfect throw that allowed one run to score and also in effect created another Cleveland run on a subsequent fly out. The Indians offense has actually produced next to nothing in this series at Safeco.
As for the Mariners, they continue to mash. Trevor Bauer did shut them down in the Monday game. But the M’s have bounced back with good production the last two games, and they have been crushing opposing righties at home this season.
That offensive edge, particularly in terms of current form, is a big plus for the Mariners tonight. I have the bullpen matchup a virtual wash. That leaves Tomlin vs. Nate Karns, and while the base numbers lend support to Tomlin, the analytics actually indicate that Karns is throwing it better overall. So it really comes down to what sets of numbers one puts faith in, and in my case, I have a tendency to give the metric sets more weight.
The number on the game is playable, with the Mariners checking in at a little less than 6:5 favorites. I wouldn’t spot any more than that, as that Tomlin roll is cause for at least a little apprehension. But as long as the number holds, I’m looking at the Mariners to get it done as the Thursday free play.
Sleepyj
Pirates / Rockies Under 11.5
If you get this tonight and you are a scalp player..Grab the Rockies now....They will go off as the favorite IMO by a decent amount....I'm on the under here for this one..Last time Locke pitched here, he was very strong..0ER and only 5 hits allowed...He should feel strong here playing today...This is now a day game and both teams played the late ones last night..Bats will be a tad slower, but some of the players got rested yesterday..Still the pitchers should rule the day...Bettis gets the nod and he got bopped at home Vs. Pitt..He gives up a bunch of hits and runs...Usually the first game for teams coming to Colorado is a Rockies fade, but I feel good here with the situation against the Buccos..Pitt bats should struggle coming across the country playing early..Pitt and the mets last night went late and was a barn burner..How much energy will they have here playing and early game..I feel the pitchers do enough to keep this one under 12 runs.
Ben Burns
MLB | Jun 09, 2016
Nationals vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox +1½
Congrats to the many that joined Ben Burns for his big plays on the Cavs AND CLE/GS "over" the total. Ben is now 8-1 the L2 days, a SICK 18-5 the L5. Over the past few weeks, he's a SCORCHING 68-35, good better than $18K. Want more? Yesterday's winner on SF brought Burns to an AMAZING 12-1 (+$10,381) his L13 @ the ballpark. WINNER #13 GOES EARLY!
The Sox are reeling right now and they got blown out again yesterday. That was with a struggling James Shields on the mound against a hot Max Scherzer. Today's matchup is considerably more favorable. Looking to avoid the sweep, Chicago should be far more competitive. In my opinion, getting an extra +1.5 runs, at close to a pick'em price, is providing us with some value.
While he got off to a great start, Gio Gonzalez isn't pitching well right now. His ERA has risen two full runs over his last three starts, as he's gone 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA in those games.
Miguel Gonzalez won't ever win any Cy Young awards. He's done a respectable job so far though and has been much better than Gio of late. In his last three starts, he's got a 3.12 ERA. Note that two of those were decided by a single run. Five of his six starts have come on the road but he pitched well in his lone home start, a 2-1 loss. He had 8 K's without walking a batter in that game, allowing two runs through six innings.
Gio has made just two starts against the ChiSox, the team which drafted him, since 2011. Both were decided by a single run. Going back further finds him at 0-4 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.684 WHIP in six career starts vs. the Sox. Take a look at Chicago on the run-line.
Rob Vinciletti
Sharks vs. Penguins
Play: Penguins -159
Pittsburgh has been a step quicker in every game even the one they lost in this cup final. They may have broken the Sharks after their big game 4 road win. Teams up 3-1 with the loss coming in game 3 are 38-16 in Playoff history in game 5. The Penguins are 24-4 as a home favorite off a road dog win. Look for Pittsburgh to clinch a cup at home for the first time tonight.
Mike Lundin
Nationals vs. White Sox
Play: Nationals -143
The Washington Nationals have won seven of their last nine games and they've scored 31 runs in their past three games alone. I like them to complete the sweep of this three-game set against the Chicago White Sox Thursday night as they come up against the struggling Miguel Gonzalez.
Gonzalez (0-1, 3.93) was bumped from the rotation following the acquisition of James Shields, but he'll make a spot start as Carlos Rodon is dealing with neck discomfort. He could ask for an easier opponent than the red hot Nats, and his 1 1/3 inning relief appearance on June 5 can't be good for the rhythm.
The Nats turn to left-hander Gio Gonzalez (3-4, 3.94 ERA) who has been hit hard in recent starts, but interleague play usually brings out the best of the left-hander. He's won his first two interleague starts of the season against Kansas City and Minnesota behind a 1.50 ERA, and we can note that the White Sox are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter.
We have a favorable umpire situation for this game as well as the Nats are 5-1 in their last six games with Eric Cooper behind home plate while the White Sox are 1-5 in their last six.
Marc Lawrence
Nationals vs. White Sox
Play: Nationals -135
Edges - Nationals: Gio Gonzalez 2-0 versus A. L. Central foes this season, and 3.48 ERA with 1.13 WHIP away starts this season. White Sox: Miguel Gonzalez 1-6 last seven overall home team starts at night this season, and 0-1 with 10.80 ERA career team starts versus Washington. With Gonzalez in sharp KW form with 21 K’s and 4 BB’s his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Washington.
Art Aronson
Pirates vs. Rockies
Play: Over 11½
The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Locke (5-3, 4.28 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off seven hits over seven innings in an 8-7 win over the Angels on Saturday. Locke struck out two, but also gave up two more home runs. It was the third time in his last five outings that he’s given up multiple homers in a start. If Locke has had one big glaring weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s 2-2 with a pedestrian 4.58 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Chad Bettis (4-5, 5.58) who gave up four runs off ten hits and one walk over five innings in a loss to the Padres on Saturday. Bettis had been blasted for 13 runs over just 8.1 innings over his previous two starts, so this effort was a slight improvement. Bettis though owns an unremarkable 1-2, 5.70 ERA record in front of the home town crowd this year. With these two inconsistent starters going head-to-head at hitter friendly Coors Field, the OVER is definitely worth a second look.
Kyle Hunter
Cardinals vs. Reds
Play: Over 9
The Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday night, and I am recommending a small play on the over in this game.
St. Louis has what has been the most consistent offense in the National League this year. The Cardinals have scored 18 runs in the first two games of this series. They should score plenty again there. Brandon Finnegan has a 3.89 ERA, but a FIP of 5.23, so he is a candidate for regression and facing this Cardinals lineup is a tough test.
Adam Wainwright hasn't been himself this year. He is coming back from an injury and he just isn't very young anymore. The Cincinnati Reds offense actually ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the past two weeks, so they are swinging the bats very well right now.
St. Louis' bullpen is league average, and Cincinnati has the worst bullpen in baseball by a big margin.
The over is 13-5 in the Cardinals last 18 games. The over is 4-0-1 in Finnegan's last 5 home starts. Take the over.
Will Rogers
Cleveland vs. Seattle
Pick: Over
The Cleveland Indians won the opener of this four-game set against the Seattle Mariners 3-1 on Monday, and all three games in this series have failed to reach the total. I expect that to change here tonight, given that the Mariners had gone over in seven straight home games prior to this series.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Mariners hand the ball to Nathan Karns (5-2, 4.23) who is coming off his worst start of the season when he was knocked around for seven runs on eight hits and five walks in four innings at Texas. Rebounding tonight might be a tough ask as he conceded five runs in just 5 1/3 innings at Cleveland earlier this season.
2. Trends - The Indians have gone over in six of Tomlin's last seven starts, while the Mariners have seen the total go over in each of Karns last five starts.
3. X-Factor - Jason Kipnis is 4-for-9 with a pair of doubles in previous meetings with Karns.
Jim Feist
Indians at Mariners
Pick: Under
Josh Tomlin (8-1, 3.54 ERA) has been sharp most of the season for Cleveland, walking just 7 with 41 strikeouts in 61 innings. The Under is 18-6-3 in the Indians last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle is a big park, great for pitchers, and the Mariners have hit better on the road. The under is 39-19-3 in the Mariners last 61 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Nathan Karns is fine at home with a 3.60 ERA and the Under is 9-4-1 when the Mariners face a team with a winning record.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles at New York
Pick: Under 9
Despite an offensive show yesterday in the Bronx, don't forget these are two poor offensive teams. They both rank in the bottom 10 in slugging, while the Angels are #17 in runs scored, the Yankees #23. New York is also #25 in on base percentage. The Angels go with Jhoulys Chacin, who has a 3.73 ERA in five starts since being traded to the Angels last month. He has never faced the Yankees but has plenty of experience against third baseman Chase Headley (2-for-15) and second baseman Starlin Castro (3-for-14). New York is 18-7-1 UNDER the total against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Yankees go with Ivan Nova (4-3, 4.41 ERA), who has a 33-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and throws best at home with a 2.22 ERA in 24+ home innings. The UNDER is 7-2-1 when the Yankees face an opponent that has scored five runs or more in their previous game and this total is too high.
Goodfella
Cardinals TT Over 5.5
We cashed a nice Team Total on these Cards a couple days ago & I am going right back to them tonight. The Cardinal bats are red hot and I just do not see the Reds SP nor that piss poor bullpen shutting them down this evening. I fully expect these Cards to get to Finnegan eventually and then we get into that terrible Reds bullpen for the rest of the game. Of course, we also have the luxury of being the visiting club here, so we are assured 9 innings of at-bats. Add on the fact that we have a VERY hitter friendly ballpark here with a solid weather pattern. I'm on the CARDINALS Team Total going OVER on Thursday night.
Brandon Shively
Indians at Mariners
Play: Indians +110
I feel the Indians should be favored here on Thursday night and am going to take advantage while they are listed as an underdog. Josh Tomlin takes the mound for Cleveland the all the guy has done is win games this year and last year to the tune of the Indians winning 16 of his last 19 starts. Tomlin has been listed as a road dog twice in his career vs the Mariners. The Indians won both of those games. The Indians are 4-0 all time in Tomlins four career starts vs the Mariners at Safeco Field. The Indians started off the month of June on fire and winners of six straight before losing 7-1 on Tuesday night then getting shut out last night. They are 2-0 this season after getting shut out and I look for them to respond again tonight. After scoring 1 run or less this season, they have won six of their follwoing nine games. Nathan Karns is a bottom end of the rotation starter for the Mariners. Karns has a 1.43 WHIP on the season, which is below the average. He is coming off his worst start of the season giving up 7 runs off 5 walks and 8 hits vs the Rangers. I don’t envision him bouncing back here. I see more struggles coming. Karns saw the Indians earlier this season and gave up 4 runs in 5.1 IP. Control has been an issue as he has walked 3 or more batters in 45% of his starts this season. I am also factoring that the Mariners have a below .500 record at home this season, but have the best winning % on the road in the American League, so fading them at home is the time to do it. The Mariners have only won 3 consecutive home games one time this season.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The 29-30 New York Yankees can get back to .500 by completing a four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday. The Yankees cruised to a 12-6 win Wednesday night and have now won EIGHT straight meetings with the Angels at Yankee Stadium. A win tonight gets New York back to .500 for the first time since the team was 22-22 on May 24. However, the Yanks sure hope to avoid the aftermath of getting to .500, as well. After getting to the break-even point back on May 24, the Yankees dropped EIGHT of their next 12 games as they scored 38 runs, batted .234 and had a 4.59 ERA in those games. But for now, let’s talk “the present.”
Jhoulys Chacin (2-3, 4.50 ERA) gets the start for the 26-33 Angels, going up against New York’s Ivan Nova (4-3, 4.41 ERA). Chacin has a 3.73 ERA in five starts since being traded to the Angels last month but struggled in a no-decision at Pittsburgh in his most recent outing. He allowed three runs on six hits and four walks in five innings this past Saturday, striking out just ONE. That came on the heels of a 10-strikeout effort in a complete game win five days earlier. The 28-year-old has never faced the Yankees. Nova was sharp through six innings at Baltimore on Saturday before he hit a wall in the seventh and was charged with FIVE runs without getting an out in the inning. He has lasted at least six innings in each of his last four starts but has given up 13 ERs in 18.2 innings over his last three outings (6.27 ERA).
Nova owns a 5.19 ERA in seven career starts against Los Angeles but has posted a 4-3 record. Sweeping a four-game series is NO easy task but the Yankees have won 23 of their last 31 home games against the Angels, including 14 of the last 17 (EIGHT in a row!). The fact that the Angels have opened the 2016 season just 1-8 against the American League East, makes taking the Yankees an even easier choice.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -124
The Washington Nationals are surging right now having won seven of their last nine games overall. Now they take on reeling Chicago White Sox team that has lost five straight. The Sox have a battered bullpen right now after giving up a combined 21 runs the past two days to the Nationals.
That's bad news for them because Miguel Gonzalez only averages 5.5 innings per start. Gonzalez is 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in six starts this season. He has faced the Nationals once in his career, giving up six earned runs and two homers in 5 innings of a 4-7 loss. That equates to a 10.80 ERA.
Gio Gonzalez is having a fine season for the Nationals, going 3-4 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.281 WHIP in 11 starts, including 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in five road starts. He has posted a 1.65 ERA in his last three starts against the White Sox, giving up just 3 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.
The Nationals are 7-2 in their last nine road games. Washington is 6-1 in its last seven interleague road games. The Nationals are 20-8 in their last 28 vs. AL Central opponents. The White Sox are 6-20 in their last 26 overall. Chicago is 1-8 in its last nine interleague home games.