Ray Monohan
Los Angeles / New York Over 9
The Angels and Yankees conclude their weekday series and the total here has value on the Over. Both pitchers really haven't been on top of their game this season. Jhoulys Chacin goes for the Angels here. Chacin sits with a 4.50 ERA on the season. He didn't last long in his last start against Pittsburgh and will be making his first stat ever against the Yankees.
The Yankees send out Ivan Nova, who sports a 4.41 ERA. Nova has been a mess against the Angels in his career, owning an ERA of 5.19.
Some trends to consider. Over is 15-5-1 in Angels last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Both offenses have hit the ball hard this series and given the two struggling starters, there should be a lot of run scoring opportunities.
Mike Lundin
Nationals vs. White Sox
Play: Nationals -143
The Washington Nationals have won seven of their last nine games and they've scored 31 runs in their past three games alone. I like them to complete the sweep of this three-game set against the Chicago White Sox Thursday night as they come up against the struggling Miguel Gonzalez.
Gonzalez (0-1, 3.93) was bumped from the rotation following the acquisition of James Shields, but he'll make a spot start as Carlos Rodon is dealing with neck discomfort. He could ask for an easier opponent than the red hot Nats, and his 1 1/3 inning relief appearance on June 5 can't be good for the rhythm.
The Nats turn to left-hander Gio Gonzalez (3-4, 3.94 ERA) who has been hit hard in recent starts, but interleague play usually brings out the best of the left-hander. He's won his first two interleague starts of the season against Kansas City and Minnesota behind a 1.50 ERA, and we can note that the White Sox are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter.
We have a favorable umpire situation for this game as well as the Nats are 5-1 in their last six games with Eric Cooper behind home plate while the White Sox are 1-5 in their last six.
Martin Griffiths
Jamaica vs. Mexico
Play: Over 2½
Mexico should win this game, they are full of momentum, are in form and are simply the better team.
But, it would be a mistake to think that they will just roll over the Jamaicans, they are not that bad a team and with some luck would have beaten Venezuela in their first game, they were down to ten men and yet looked the better team throughout the game.
The problem for me is that the odds on a Mexican win are just too low, it is not exactly a hard pick to make, but that does not mean that there is not a good pick in this game.
The pick for me is in the totals, I do see at least three goals in this game, yes I do think Mexico will win, but I am of the opinion that Jamaica will score and in the event they did not I can still see Mexico grabbing three goals just as they did against Uruguay.
Mexico had to work hard against Uruguay for their win and showed that they have the character to do well in this competition, it should also be noted that the Mexicans are to some extent playing at home because of the huge fan base they have in the USA.
I expect both teams to score, I am confident that Mexico alone will score three goals and so whatever way I look at this game I see it going over 2.5 goals.
Brandon Lee
Indians +123
Cleveland is worth a look here in Thursday's series finale against the Mariners. Indians starter Josh Tomlin is simply not getting the respect he deserves. He's 8-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 10 starts. He's been at his best on the road, where he's 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in 4 starts. Seattle will counter with Nate Karns, who is coming off a miserable start last time out, giving up 7 runs on 8 hits and 5 walks in just 4 innings at Texas. Indians are 13-4 in their last 17 road games after 2 or more losses and Tomlin is 13-1 in his last 14 starts against the money after a team loss.
Chip Chirimbes
Pirates vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -101
This contest is a make-up game from a rain-out in April as the Pirates had to break-up a nine game home stand after losing in 10 innings to the Mets last night. This 'price' seems awful short considering Pittsburgh is 5-1 against the Rockies this season as Colorado has lost five of their last six at home. And their starter Chad Bettis (4-5, 5.58 ERA) has dropped his last three starts. The Pirates who's routine has been disturbed will most likely just go through the motions.
Bob Harvey
Cardinals vs. Reds
Play: Over 9
The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds conclude their three game series where offense is expected to reign supreme.
The Cardinals (30-28, 31-27 RL) lost the series opener 7-6 but bounced back on Wednesday night hitting four homeruns during a 12-7 victory. Brandon Moss belted a pair of roundtrippers, Jhonny Peralta added a three-run blast and Matt Adams clubbed a three-run shot for St. Louis, which is 17-4 in its last 21 series against Cincinnati.
The Reds (22-36, 31-27 RL) offense has scored 54 runs during a 5-2 stretch and has 27 hits in the first two games of the series. Jay Bruce has been especially hot, hitting safely in 10 of his last 11 games, collecting 12 RBIs in that stretch.
Wainwright (5-4, 5.40 ERA) saw his seven-start unbeaten streak come to an end with a 5-1 loss to San Francisco on Friday. He’s had mixed results against Cincinnati posting a career mark of 8-10 with a 4.51 ERA against Cincinnati.
Finnegan (2-4, 3.89) put the brakes to an eight-start winless drought last time out against Washington, permitting one run and five hits over 6 1/3 innings for his first victory since April 16 in St. Louis. He’s 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA in four appearances (two starts).
The Cardinals are 13-5 to the OVER in their last 18 overall while the Reds are 15-5-2 to the high side in their past 22. St. Louis has taken six of the last eight meetings.
Cincinnati's pitchers have surrendered 101 homers, by far the highest total in the majors.
Jimmy Boyd
Yankees -125
New York is showing some decent value here as a small home favorite against the Angels. The Yankees are playing well at the moment and come in having won 3 straight. They are really swinging the bats well, as they are averaging 6 runs/game and hitting .321 as a team over their last 7.
The offense figures to put up another big number here. Angels starter Jhoulys Chacin has a 4.85 ERA in 7 road starts and LA's bullpen has a 5.08 ERA and 1.494 WHIP on the road this season. New York will counter with Ivan Nova, who has pitched very well at home, where he has a 3.17 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 3 starts. Yankees are 12-4 in his last 16 starts against a team with a losing record and 45-18 in his last 63 as a favorite of -110 or more.
Dave Price
Los Angeles Angels +120
The Los Angeles Angels are hungry for a victory to avoid getting swept by the New York Yankees in four games tonight. They should take Game 4 behind Jhoulys Chacin, who is 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in 10 starts this year. He has found a nice home in Los Angeles, going 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in his last three starts. Ivan Nova has struggled of late for the Yankees, going 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has allowed 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 18 2/3 innings in those 3 outings. Nova is 4-3 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against the Angels.
Power Sports
Cleveland vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The Indians, who I took in Monday's opener (and they won), have now dropped B2B games here in Seattle following a five-game win streak. This is not all that surprising given the ebb and flow we often see teams display from series to series. Tonight, I look for the Mariners to make it three straight and win this four-game set.
Though they came into this series not in good form (swept in Texas over the weekend), the M's are absolutely at Cleveland's level. In fact, they are now one-half game better than them in terms of won-loss record and also their run differential for the year is superior (+58 to +37). In fact, only three teams (Cubs, Red Sox, Nats) have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this year than has Seattle. They shut Cleveland out yday, holding them to just three hits, and in the process became just the second American League team to score 300 runs this year (Boston).
This is also a good opportunity to buy low on Seattle starter Nick Karns, who is off his worst outing of the year. He allowed seven runs in just four innings his last time out (at Texas), but prior to that had allowed 3 ER or less in seven consecutive starts. Overall, the team is 8-3 w/ him in the mound this season and the Indians have scored just one run on nine hits the last two games. Cleveland's Josh Tomlin has a shiny 9-1 TSR, but he hasn't necessarily pitched as well as that record might seem to indicate w/ 16 hits allowed in his last 10 innings of work.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -1½ +201 over San Jose
OT Included. Whether it’s fatigue from all that travel during these playoffs or whether it’s simply that the Sharks are outclassed really does not matter, as this series is not going back to San Jose.
The Sharks are acting like a defeated team and they’re playing like one too. From the opening face-off of Game 1 to the last game in San Jose, the Penguins have done absolutely everything better than the Sharks. The most glaring advantage that the Penguins have had is the amount of chances that they’ve created compared to the few that San Jose has generated. The one game that the Sharks managed to win was a game they didn’t deserve to win. Other than the last few minutes of all these games, San Jose has been completely overwhelmed by the speed and determination of the Penguins.
Pittsburgh can absolutely small a wounded animal here. It’ll be bedlam at the Consol Energy Center tonight long before the puck is dropped. You can expect a highly energized Pittsburgh team to completely dominate this defeated Sharks' squad again. San Jose has managed to keep most of these games close because Martin Jones has been outstanding but Jones is not likely going to be able to withstand the onslaught of being under siege for at least the first 50 minutes. The Penguins have finished off every team this postseason when they have had the chance to. Up 3-1 on the Rangers in Round 1, the Penguins buried New York 6-3 in the elimination game. Up 3-2 on the Capitals, Pittsburgh finished them off in Game 6. After being down 3-2 against Tampa, the Penguins rallied to win that series too.
San Jose’s performance in this series was completely unforeseen from our viewpoint. Perhaps the toll of all that travel and of playing Los Angeles, Nashville and finally St. Louis caught up to them. Whatever the case, the Sharkies have nothing left in them and haven’t had much this entire series. San Jose has been trailing on the scoreborad too this entire series. They have been chasing every game of this series in every single period and that takes a toll too. No way are the Pens going to let them off the hook here. Game, set, match.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A Angels (5 innings) +105
The Yankees have scored 18 runs over the past two games but don’t get fooled into thinking that their offence is finally coming around. It’s not. New York faced starters David Huff, a pitcher that was cut five years ago by the Indians and Jered Weaver, a pitcher that would have been cut five years ago had he not signed a huge contract. The Yankees biggest strength remains their bullpen so from the sixth or seventh inning on, they are not going to give up many runs. It would therefore make no sense whatsoever to fade the Yankees in anything but in the first five innings. We’ll apply that here.
Jhoulys Chacin owns a 4.50 ERA after 10 starts, which provides us an opportunity to buy him at a low cost. As a starter who has never posted anything better than that during the course of a season, it's easy to be pessimistic with Chacin. However, he pitched at Coors for years prior to this season and his skills so far in 2016 have been impressive. He has a solid BB/K split of 18/48 in 58 frames to go along with an elite 53% groundball rate. Chain is completely dominating RH bats with 10.3 K’s/9 and a 51% groundball rate. A 37% hit rate and 66% strand rate against him has produced his 4+ ERA. One key for Chacin has been a tightened cutter. He's getting a 19% swing and miss rate with that pitch compared to a 10% rate with it in 2015.
Ivan Nova has allowed four runs or more in three straight starts against Toronto (twice) and Baltimore once. Nova thrived against the Athletics, South Side and Royals in three of his first six starts before that. The latter three are all struggling miserably so we’re not going tom put much weight in his success against them. Nova is a decent pitcher but he’s struggling and he’s allowed at least one jack in seven straight appearances. The Angels lineup has power and that power figures to be on full display here. Halos in five gets the call.
MINNESOTA -1½ +152 over Miami
The Twins are 18-40. Two games ago they were 16-40 and on a pace to lose about 115 games. That would put them among the five worst teams in the history of this great game but the oddsmakers could not care less, as they have Minnesota listed (at the time of this writing) as -140 favorite. The Toronto Blue Jays lost 107 games in 1977 and were never even close to being a -140 favorite the entire year. The point is that the Twinkies are probably going to play over .500 for the rest of the year and that means there should be great profits in playing them. There are too many good players, too much team speed and too many overall good parts for these Twins to be losing so frequently. A big correction has started and the line strongly suggests it will continue here with a sweep of the Fish.
After facing starters Adam Conley and Wei-Yin Chen in the first two games of this series, Minnesota takes a huge step down in class when facing Tom Koehler. Koehler brings a WHIP of 1.60 into this game after 11 starts. In 60 innings this season, Koehler has walked 36 batters and struck out 45. That’s a horrible ratio. For a pitcher lacking swing-and-miss stuff (4% in his last start), good control is vital to have a chance at any success but Koehler doesn’t have that and it’s getting worse. Koehler brings more value to his real-life team as a steady innings eater type than he does to anyone that wants to bet on him. He’s a weak pitcher that is getting weaker and the oddsmakers know it. The Fish look TOO appealing taking back a price like this and that’s a warning sign.
Also note: Games may be added or subtracted by 6:00 PM or thereabouts, as we monitor lines looking for value all day.
Bob Balfe
Angels/Yankees Over 9
Both teams are hitting the ball pretty well and I am concerned about these pitchers today with these wind gust. I expect a lot of long balls and sloppy play in the field. There should be a couple of errors that will also lead to runs. Nova has been weak as of late and the Angels bullpen has been shaky on the road. We should get a lot of runs tonight.
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON -130 over Chicago White Sox
We think the price is more than reasonable here on the road favorite. Washington is one of the better road teams in baseball this season at 21-12 (+6.6 units) and it has been particularly profitable away from home in this price range, going 7-1 as a road chalk of between -120 and -150. The Nationals are 9-2 in interleague play and have also beat up on bad teams, winning 14 out of 21 games this year against opponents with a losing record. The ChiSox certainly fall into that category as losers of five in a row and nine of their last 11.
Ian Cameron
Miami at Minnesota
Play: Over 9.5
Tom Koehler and Ervin Santana are firmly in the mediocre starter category and both could be vulnerable here in tonight's matchup. Koehler has a 4.59 road ERA and has not fared well in his career against American League teams on the road including last year when he gave up 11 runs on 13 hits in 12.2 innings in a pair of road outings at Toronto and Boston. Minnesota’s lineup isn’t on that level but it’s still worth noting pitching in AL parks with the DH in play has been a sore spot for Koehler. He struggled allowing three runs in just four innings against them back in 2013 and the Twins have perked up offensively quite a bit of late scoring 30 runs in their last six games. On the flip side, Santana has not been very efficient of late for the Twins with a 7.56 ERA in his last three starts and a 5.46 home ERA this season in five starts. In particular, Santana’s last two starts here at Target Field were not very good as he allowed 11 runs on 15 hits in 9.2 innings of work against Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Neither bullpen is very reliable nor overly fresh coming into this game as each starter for in the first two games of the series has failed to pitch seven innings or more. Miami is 17-11 O/U on the road and Minnesota is 19-10 O/U at home providing a 36-21 betting angle. Play it over.