Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, August 16th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
TWINS VS. BRAVES
PLAY: TWINS F5
One thing I’ve learned over the years is that Ervin Santana can be very streaky. That makes him prime fade material when he’s scuffling. But when Ervin is servin’, he’s a good follow, and right now Santana is on a roll. The Twins righty has been very strong recently, and was on his way to another win last week before the rains came at Target with Santana up 5-0. I expect him to pick up right where he left off as he takes on the Braves tonight.
Joel De La Cruz will be on the mound for Atlanta. De La Cruz looks like little more than rotation filler for the Braves. There’s nothing in DLC’s minor league resume to suggest he’s a keeper. Sinker, slider, change is the arsenal and De La Cruz is strictly pitch to contact with only acceptable command. He has not proven to be a particular mystery to big league hitters and I would be very surprisied if that changes anytime soon.
There’s a price to pay here as the Twins are clearly not in the road warrior class. But the Braves have been a horror show at home. Some of the models will show the “value” here to be on the Braves. But my own formula is much more based on current form, which I absolutely believe to be a key when sizing up the starting pitching. I’ll look to ride Santana for at least one more start, and my play on this game is the Twins. But as my key is Santana vs. De La Cruz and the Minny pen is not exactly shutdown material, Twins F5 would be my first choice here.
Sleepyj
Nationals / Rockies Over 11.5
Good pitching, but plenty of pop in these bats...I always like to look at the road team coming into Coors...75% of the time they enjoy hitting here and they look for the long ball..No reason to not believe the Nats do that here tonight....Nats will send out Gio and he has been pretty good as of late...His strikeouts have been down and walk have been hit an miss..Something just doesn't add up for a rock solid start here for Gio...He can be a fly ball pitcher at times as well...He had a ton of innings logged right now and he might just fade here for a bit of time...Rockies haven't seen him as of yet, but playing here doesn't usually hurt teams who haven't had a look in some time....Rockies will go with Bettis here tonight and he has been on the down side his last 3 games...He has allowed 11 ER in just 17 innings of work...plenty of walks and his strikeouts have been down as well...He can also be a fly ball pitcher and we all know how much power the Nats have in the lineup...Washington has been hitting rather wll and Bettis won't go untouched here...It will be rather warm at the ballpark as well with the wind forcasted to be going 10mph...perhaps we see a few of the long shots get out of the park for us...Seems like a high total, but I'm convinced on the power in these lineups get it over for us.
Art Aronson
Nationals vs. Rockies
Play: Nationals -126
Setting the scene: We had a paid selection on the Nats last night and they’d rally late for the victory. Max Scherzer struggled at hitters friendly Coors Field, but we think Gio Gonzalez will bounce back with a better effort in what is another favorable pitching matchup for Washington.
Gonzalez: He’s 8-9 with a 4.24 ERA. Most recently he went five frames and fave up four runs while striking out five in a hard-fought victory over the Indians on Wednesday. It was a tough matchup, but the veteran still found a way to win. Also note that it was the shortest outing over his last eight games and the four earned runs were the most he’s given up since June. Gonzalez is now in line to win three straight for the first time this year.
Chad Bettis: He’s 10-6 with a 5.27 ERA. Bettis hasn’t been great at home this year, posting a 5.37 ERA.
The bottom line: “Recent performance” points to Gonzalez as the correct call in this matchup. Consider a second look at the visitors in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Blue Jays -125
Edges - Blue Jays: Marco Estrada 6-3 team starts versus A.L. East this season. Yankees: Michael Pineda 3-6 team starts versus A.L. East this season; and 5.07 ERA with 1.36 WHIP this season. With the Jays 9-2 their last 11 games here, we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.
Mike Lundin
Cardinals vs. Astros
Play: Astros -143
The Houston Astros will host the St. Louis Cardinals for a brief interleague series at Minute Maid Park starting Tuesday night. With both teams coming off an off day, this looks like a good spot to back the Astros.
The Cardinals are 7-19 in their last 26 games following an off day and they'll send Jaime García (9-8, 3.93 ERA) to the mound. He's 2-6 with a 6.15 ERA in previous meetings with Houston and 3-3 with a bloated 5.04 ERA in 10 road starts on the season. Jose Altuve is 7-for-16 in previous meetings with Garcia and he's hitting .364 in 26 games versus the Cardinals.
Houston is 5-1 in its last six games following an off day and turns to its ace Dallas Keuchel (7-11, 4.56) for this contest. The left-handed ace is coming off his best performance of the season as he went the distance and blanked the Rangers on three hits his last time out. He's 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA in two prior appearances (one start) against St. Louis, but the Cardinals are batting just .245 with a .315 on-base-percentage against southpaws this season.
The Cardinals are 2-10 in their last 12 interleague games while the Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Bob Harvey
Kansas City vs. Detroit
Play: Kansas City +122
The defending MLB champion Kansas City Royals go for their second straight win over the Tigers when the two teams meet tonight in Detroit. FJustin Verlander and the Tigers are the moneyline favorites over KC and Danny Duffy.
The Royals (57-60, 21-39 road) have won seven of their last nine games while relying on dominating pitching. Kansas City’s staff allowed an average of two runs in those seven wins and four pitchers combined to hold the Tigers to six hits in Monday’s opener.
The Tigers (63-54, 33-21 home) missed out on a chance to gain ground on Cleveland in the AL Central and lost a game to Boston in the race for the second AL wild card with a 3-1 loss in Monday’s series opener. Detroit has now dropped six of its last eight games and trails the Indians by 5.5 games.
Duffy (9-1, 2.82 ERA) has not lost since June 6 and has been outstanding in his last three starts with three runs allowed and 28 strikeouts in 23.2 frames. On Thursday, he notched his first career complete game against the Chicago White Sox.
Verlander (12-6, 3.42 ERA) has been just as sharp as Duffy of late, allowing two or fewer earned runs in each of his last eight starts. He had a string of three straight wins come to an end in a no decision at Seattle on Wednesday.
Kansas City is 2-6 in its last eight visits to Detroit while the Tigers are 7-2 in their last nine home outings. Despite those trends, our suggested play is on KC and its phenomenal first year starter.
The Royals are 11-4 to the UNDER in their last 15 overall.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -171
The Indians are too heavy a favorite to init rate tonight. However for the free play they should get the job done. They fit a solid 84% Home loss bounce back system and are 9-3 as a home favorite in this range. They average 6 runs per game at home and 6.4 runs the last week. They have Kluber going vs Chicago who have Quintana on the mound, Play on Cleveland tonight.
Jim Feist
Mariners at Angels
Pick: Over
Anaheim stadium is a good offensive park. Seattle heads south with a strong offense, #12 in baseball in runs scored, #8 in slugging. Seattle is 18-6 over the total against a team with a losing record. Starter James Paxton is better at home, with batters hitting .295 off him on the road. The Mariners are 28-12 over the total against a pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and they face Jhoulys Chacin, off a 14-4 loss at Cleveland allowing 7 runs 1 1/3 inning. The over is 5-1-1 his last 7 starts.
Chase Diamond
Twins at Braves
Play: Twins
Two bad teams square off as the 47-71 Twins play the 44-74 Braves. Braves are by far the worst team in Baseball and Joel De La Cruz is pretty awful 0-5 with a 4.09 ERA. Ervin Santana goes for the Twins this guy has pitched very good but has gotten horrible run support he is 5-9 with a 3.62 ERA. I believe he is determined to show his worth so that a contending team makes a deal for him. Last time Santana pitched against the Braves he pitched a complete game but his team gave him zero runs. Also a big thing in our favor tonight the last start for Santana was rained out so he is virtually pitching on 11 days rest.
John Ryan
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Dodgers -152
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-6 mark good for 87% winners since 2010. Play on all favorites in August with a money line of -150 or more (LA DODGERS) and is batting under .255 and is now facing a decent NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA=3.70 to 4.20.
Fundamental Discussion Points: Weather in the form of a line of possibly severe thunderstorms will roll across the Philadelphia region late this afternoon, but are not expected to have any impact on the game tonight. There could be a delayed start to the game, but not a situation where the game starts and then is stopped due to weather. This is a very important factor as we do want Maeda to start and not have that start shortened by weather. Maeda is pitching well with a 7-2 mark, 3.28 ERA, and 0.978 WHIP in 11 road starts. Philadelphia starts Valasquez, who is now struggling with a 7.47 ERA and 1.787 WHIP over his last three starts. In his last start last week against the Dodgers, he was pounded for 9 ER in just 4 2/3 innings of work. Take the Dodgers.
Larry Ness
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Pick: Blue Jays
Conventional wisdom said the trades of Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Beltran and Andrew Miller had the Yankees “giving up” on the 2016 season and looking towards the future. However, New York has won nine of 14 since the non-waiver trade deadline and has tied a season high by going four games over .500 at 61-57, after last night’s 1-0 home win over the Blue Jays. The Yankees won despite going 2-for-18 with RISP and stranding 14 runners. The win left them 5 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East and New York is 4 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot in a very crowded field. The 67-52 Blue Jays are just percentage points back of the Orioles for the division’s top spot but along with the Red Sox, would qualify for a wild card berth if the season ended today.
Marco Estrada (7-5, 2.95 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto tonight in Yankees Stadium, up against New York’s Michael Pineda (6-10, 5.07 ERA). Pineda has not had a good season but has shown improvement lately, posting a 3.81 ERA over his last 13 starest (he’s 4-4 and the team is 9-4 ). He will face the Blue Jays for the 10th time in his career, entering with a 3.54 ERA in nine previous starts (he’s 2-3 and his teams are 4-5). Estrada is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA vs the Yankees in seven career starts (teams are 4-3) and comes in off plenty of rest (last pitched Tuesday, August 9).
Estrada allowed three runs on four hits in seven innings during an 8-4 win at New York on May 25 and on May 30, he allowed three hits in eight scoreless innings during a 4-2 home victory. Overall, in both starts, he held New York batters to a .140 average (7 of 40). Estrada last lost a road start back on April 16, going 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA in eight road outings, since. That’s good enough for me.
Jesse Schule
St. Louis vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
The Astros host St Louis tonight, and Houston's ace is starting to get back on track.
Dallas Keuchel (7-11, 4.56 ERA) toes the slab for Houston after pitching a complete game shutout in his last start. It was the sixth game in his last seven he allowed two runs or less. In his last two home starts, he pitched 16 2/3 innings and gave up two runs and nine hits.
The Cards hand the ball to Jaime Garcia (9-8, 3.93 ERA) who gave up two runs and six hits in eight innings in his last start. He's been rocked for nine runs on a dozen hits over 8 1/3 innings in his last two road starts. He's faced Houston once previously this season, and that ended in a loss after he surrendered four runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings.
The Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 12 versus American League teams, and they've lost eight of Garcia's last 10 starts versus Houston.
Jeff Alexander
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -102
I'm backing the Orioles on Tuesday at home against the Red Sox. This is simply too good of a price to back Baltimore at home, where they are a dominant 39-17 on the season. This is a tough spot for Boston, who had to go to Cleveland yesterday for a makeup game and then quickly turnaround and head to Baltimore for this short 2-game series. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez has a 5.81 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in 6 road starts, while Baltimore has won all 5 of Yovani Gallardo's home starts, where he has a strong 3.33 ERA.
Brandon Lee
Royals vs. Tigers
Play: Under 7
The books have set the bar too high on tonight's total between the Tigers and Royals. We have two starters in great form here and I don't see either offense doing much of anything in this one. Detroit will send out their veteran ace Justin Verlander, who has a 3.35 ERA in 13 home starts and a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 outings. Kansas City counters with Danny Duffy, who has really thrown the ball well since the beginning of June. During this stretch he's allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 13 of 14 starts. He's got a 1.14 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 2.23 ERA in 7 outings on the road.