Jimmy Boyd
Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Mariners -113
Seattle is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Angels. The Mariners come into this contest having won 3 straight and 11 of their last 13 overall. LA on the other hand has lost 11 straight. Hard to not like Seattle given the edge they will have on the mound.
The Mariners will send out Ariel Miranda for a spot start in place of the injured James Paxton. Miranda started at home against the Red Sox on 8/4 and allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings. Even if he's not great, Seattle has a great shot of winning here, as they should put up a big number here against Angels' starter Jhoulys Chacin. He's 3-8 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in 16 starts and comes in with an awful 13.50 ERA and 3.093 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Mariners have are 4-1 in their last 5 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 21-7 in their last 28 against a right-handed starter and 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a losing record. Angels are just 9-23 in their last 32 against a team with a winning record, 8-20 in their last 28 against a division opponent and 8-22 in their last 30 following a loss.
Buster Sports
Chicago at Cleveland
Play: Under 7.5
The runs will be at a premium tonight in Cleveland when the Chicago White Sox take on the Indians. The pitchers tonight are for the White Sox LH Jose Quintana (9-8, 2.85 ERA) and he goes up against the Indians RH Corey Kluber (12-8, 3.21 ERA) Quintana has one of the best ERA's in the American League and he has been great in his last 7 starts with a 4-0 record. In those 7 starts he has a 2.11 ERA with a WHIP of 0.96. When starting against Cleveland, Quintana has a 2.87 ERA with a WHIP of 1.16 As for Kluber he has been just as good for the Indians. In his last 7 starts he is sporting a 2.53 ERA with a WHIP of 1.08. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 13-3 in Quintana's last 16 road starts and the fact that the UNDER is 6-0 in Kluber's last 6 starts vs. White Sox.
David Banks
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates+105
The Pirates continue their West Coast swing with a trip to San Francisco to face the Giants, who just dropped two of three games to Baltimore. San Francisco blew a six-run lead in the seventh inning on Sunday and lost 8-7 to the Orioles. The Giants are now one game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
Pittsburgh took two of three games from San Diego and then helped the Giants by beating the Dodgers in two of three games. Jung Ho Kang hit the longest home run of the season (450 feet) at Dodger Stadium as the Pirates defeated Los Angeles on Sunday, 11-3. Pittsburgh is now 13.5 games behind the NL Central-leading Cubs, but the Pirates are just a game and a half behind second-place St. Louis.
The Pirates will start righthander Jameson Taillon on Tuesday night. Taillon is 3-2 on the season and was on top of his game in his last start against San Diego. He threw eight scoreless innings and gave up just three hits in a 4-0 Pittsburgh victory. Taillon’s 2.85 ERA is the best it has been since June and he will be going up against a San Francisco lineup that is struggling.
Since the All-Star break, the Giants have not been able to give enough run support to their pitching ace Madison Bumgarner. Prior to his start on Saturday, the Giants were giving Bumgarner just 2.4 runs per game and that is with a lineup featuring Buster Posey (.288), Brandon Crawford (.272, 71 RBI), and Brandon Belt (.278, 14 HR, 61 RBI).
Jeff Samardzija (10-8 ) gets the start for San Francisco. He won his last start against Miami giving up just three hits and no runs in 5.2 innings. The Giants won the game 1-0. He will face a Pirates lineup that scored 20 runs in three games against the Dodgers. Leftfielder Starling Marte bats .316 and Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco lead the Pirates with 16 home runs apiece.
Wunderdog
Kansas City @ Detroit
Pick: Detroit -138
Danny Duffy is 9-1, but the one team that he has struggled with this season is Detroit, which has roughed him up to the tune of 10 runs and 12 hits in 13 1/3 innings. Kansas City has lost 38 of its last 56 road games and is last in the major leagues in both OPS and runs scored in away games. Meanwhile, Justin Verlander has not allowed more than two runs his last eight starts and is coming off a Tigers loss at Seattle when he didn't factor in the decision after giving up just one run in seven innings. Detroit has won nine of its last 12 home games against left-handed starters and the Tigers are 33-22 overall at Comerica Park. Also, Detroit has won seven of Verlander's last nine home starts. Detroit is 10th in the majors with a .764 OPS against lefties and ninth with a .790 OPS at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. YANKEES -103 over Toronto
The media suggested that the Bombers waved the white flag at the deadline but we’ve been arguing the opposite ever since. What we see is a bunch of hungry and talented kids ready to step up and make a playoff push. The Yanks are only 4½ games back of a Wild Card spot and they have a massive 25 games left against Toronto, Boston and Baltimore combined. If you watched Chad Green pitch last night, you have to like their chances. That 1-0 score was a flattering one to the Jays, as New York went 2 for18 with RISP while the Jays were swinging at everything and hitting nothing. Toronto’s offense continues to sputter. They are an all or nothing offense meaning that if they’re not going yard, they are not scoring runs. They strike out often (5th most K’s in MLB) and they’ll face another strikeout pitcher here in Michael Pineda
Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 5.07 ERA after 23 starts. Just like some pitchers are very lucky, others can get unlucky too for an extended period of time and that applies to Pineda. That his ERA is one of the highest among AL starters with 100 innings or more is ludicrous. Michael Pineda continues to be saddled with a trifecta of bad luck with a high 36% hit rate, low 65% strand rate and high 18% hr/f rate. Pineda has filthy stuff. He has 152 K’s in 131 frames with just 38 walks issued. He also has a 16% swing and miss rate, which is in Clayton Kershaw territory. Pineda also owns better skills with runners on base than any starter in MLB not named Kershaw with 10 K’s/9, 0.8 BB’s/9 and 45% groundballs. Again, he has been victimized by a crazy trifecta of terrible luck in that situation with a 38% hit rate and 11% (!) strand rate. With a 3.11 xERA, Pineda is the premier buy-low starting pitcher in baseball. He has Cy Young winner stuff, period but he’s priced like he’s C.C. Sabathia.
Then there’s Marco Estrada, who is the opposite of Pineda in that he has very average stuff with great results. Estrada is extremely unlikely to pitch anywhere close to his current 2.95 ERA over an extended period of time ever again and here’s why: 1) He’s constantly behind in the count with a 55% first-pitch strike rate. That first-pitch strike rate is at 46% over Estrada’s last six starts. 2) His 87 MPH fastball is one of the lowest in velocity in MLB. 3) Estrada also has an ugly groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 34%/25%/41%. 4) Estrada’s low 23% hit rate and high strand percentage of 78% (90% over his last five starts) has been doing the heavy lifting for this stiff for the past two years. Having balls hit to the warning track is not a skill. Having balls scorched off the bat and hit right at people is not a skill either. Estrada’s skill is that he puts good spin on the ball and batters pop it up. That does happen but not enough to make him elite. At the end of the day, what we have in Marco Estrada is a pitcher that is constantly behind in the count, that is constantly getting hit hard (but those balls are being hit right at folks), and that has a very hittable fastball. His xERA of 5.91 tells the real story of a pitcher that is riding a wave of extreme good fortune and has been doing so for almost two full years, which is not unheard of (see Jered Weaver, Kyle Lohse, James Shields, Doyle Alexander, Bartolo Colon, Barry Zito, Dan Haren, Jordan Zimmermann, Colby Lewis, Mark Buehrle and others). Eventually the weak skills that all these pitchers share will catch up to them and Marco Estrada is next up. We get the better starter by a wide margin, the better bullpen by a wide margin, the better offense and the team in better form AND they’re a dog at home. Pencil us in for that.
Oakland +128 over TEXAS
Last week Oakland announced that Andrew Triggs will get starts over Daniel Mengden. Mengden was widely expected to rejoin the major league club but Oakland apparently felt Mengden needed some consolidation of his previous start's control gains. With his three-quarter arm slot, soft-tossing ways, and groundball tendency, Triggs perhaps projects more like a Darren O'Day than a rotation anchor. That’s fine with us. Triggs has a nice BB/K split of 12/38 in 38 innings. He has a strong 53% groundball rate and a strong 12% swing and miss rate. He does bring some risk for sure because he’s raw in terms of major-league experience but Triggs is a 27-year-old rookie that has paid his dues. Triggs was acquired from Baltimore during spring training, and he was sent to Nashville in the Pacific Coast League where he struck out 21 batters in 18 frames. Triggs throws from a low three-quarters arm delivery and gets groundballs almost three times as much as fly-balls. Triggs might not be a very hard thrower (a four-seam fastball that reaches the low-90s mph), but batters do not get much off him, with a minors career batting average against of only .218 and a cumulative WHIP of only 1.03. In addition to his two-seam and four-seam fastballs, he throws a cut fastball, a slider and a changeup. With good control and solid strikeout rates, Triggs could offer up some pretty sweet value down the stretch and we’ll gladly put that to the test here.
Lucas Harrell started the season in…in…..in…..well he didn’t start it in anywhere actually. He ended last season playing in Korea, where he went 10-11 in 30 starts with a 4.93 ERA and ugly 1.65 WHIP. The Tigers invited him to spring training but sent him to Toledo when the season started where he made one start before being sent down to Double-A, Eerie, where he made two starts. The Tigers eventually released him at which point he was picked up by the Braves and signed to a minor-league deal on May 21, 2016. On July 2, the Braves called him up to make a spot start and he would go on to start five games in July before he and RP Dario Alvarez were traded to Texas on July 27 for 2B Travis Demeritte. Prior to pitching in Korea (because no MLB team wanted him), Harrell was riding buses in the minors for the past dozen years or so, where he has close to 1000 minor league innings. Prior to this year,Harrell had pitched a grand total of three MLB innings since 2013. He lost 17 games for the Astros that season (2013) while leading the NL in walks with 88 in 154 innings. He’s walked 15 over his last 28 innings so his control remains awful. Lucas Harrell started the year in the minors again. He’s been rejected by every MLB team not once or twice but a half dozen times or more. He has a career MLB xERA of 5.22 and now he’s priced like he’s Justin Verlander. If the Rangers win here, so be it, but Harrell’s chances of losing are greater than winning, which instantly prompts us to step in. This is a minor-league pitcher spotting a significant tag.
Boston -111 over BALTIMORE
This line is just plain stupid. Eduardo Rodriguez evenly priced against Yovani Gallardo is a wager that must be made because Gallardo should not even be in the majors. The only reason that Gallardo is not counting heads on the bus from the hotel to the park is because the Orioles are paying him 8M per. Gallardo’s continuing decreasing velocity is down to 88 MPH. His swing and miss rate is down to 7%. His walk rate continues to climb and he now has 41 walks issued in 78 frames while whiffing just 57. His fly-ball rate is increasing too. With Camden Yards enhancing LH HR by 37%, that's only asking for trouble. Gallardo comes in with a 1.60 WHIP and a 5.38 xERA. All of his skills and underlying numbers are in free-fall mode. A profile like this is prone to fall off the cliff and when you're an “old” 30 years old with past injuries and seven straight years of 180 + innings, there's no guarantee that even a parachute will provide a soft landing.
Pitching mismatches often have the favorite at -160 or even higher but this pitching mismatch is evenly priced. Forget Eduardo Rodriguez’s 5.38 ERA because he was late to the show this year and has started just 12 games this season. Last year, Rodriguez went 10-6 with a 3.85/3.65 ERA/xERA split in 122 innings for the Red Sox. It was a nice taste at the time for this talented rookie. Rodriguez maintained decent command all year and mid-90s velocity throughout. He finished with four dominant starts in a row to end the year and he’s now rounding into that same form. Over his last 35 frames, Rodriguez has whiffed 32 batters with the support of an elite 14% swing and miss rate. In his last start, Rodriguez went seven full against the Yanks and allowed just three hits and one run. We’re buying his futures now at a low price and you should too.
COLORADO +110 over Washington
Gio Gonzalez has consistently been an excellent strikeout source but he's been getting fewer swings and misses over the past month (9%) and his velocity has fallen off, which could certainly be a sign of fatigue. Another sign of fatigue is falling behind in the count and in that regard Gonzalez has been awful lately with a 50% first-pitch strike rate over his past six starts and a 43% rate in his last start. That’s asking for big trouble at this park. Furthermore, and this is key here, Gonzalez is easily rattled. When there’s traffic, he’ll slow the game down to a crawl. He’ll try and nibble instead of being aggressive, which leads to even more trouble. Gio Gonzalez and Coors Field is an awful fit and it sure doesn’t help that Gonzalez is not in good form right now despite what the surface stats say. Gonzalez’s xERA of 4.77 over his last five starts is more than two full runs higher than his actual 2.67 ERA over that same span, making this a great spot to fade him in.
Chad Bettis’s progress has been obscured by misfortune. Bettis’s 5.27 ERA will have most looking elsewhere today but surface stats are not something we put emphasis on. Bettis’s ability to induce groundballs is a key aspect of his game, especially considering his home park. Keeping the ball on the ground has helped him sustain a respectable hr/9 (2015: 0.9; 2016: 1.1). He has been able to get a healthy percentage of swings and misses (11%) but it hasn’t yet translated into the number of strikeouts we might expect. There would appear to be room for a little more K-rate growth, perhaps closer to 8 K’s/9 based on his swing and miss stuff. Bettis has also done a much better job of getting ahead in the count and he has thrown more strikes this year, leading to fewer free passes. An unfortunate hit rate, strand rate and hr/f rate have contributed to an inflated ERA. Note the wide gap between ERA and xERA (3.97). Bettis isn’t going to wow with dynamic stuff. However, his reduced control, healthy groundball rate of 51% and solid swing and miss rate form a fairly interesting collection of skills. Additionally, Bettis is used to the park factor here and won’t get rattled like his mound opponent will. The Rocks are always dangerous at home and now they have a great chance to make life miserable for Gonzalez.
Pittsburgh +102 over SAN FRAN
The Giants have not won two straight since the end of July. They have lost two in a row, three of four and four of their last six. Despite an ugly 2015 campaign, Jeff Samardzija was able to score a five-year, $90-million contract with SF in hopes he'd return to 2014 form. He hasn’t. Samardzija stopped the bleeding earlier in the year but there are still obstacles and he’s back to the poor form he’s showed often in the past late in the season.Samardzija’s swing and miss rate is down to a mere 7% over his last five starts and was at 5% in his last start. Over his last 29 frames, Samardzija has an ugly BB/K split of 12/17. Samardzija’s pitches lack life. His durability or lack thereof remains an ongoing issue and therefore he becomes too big a risk when asked to spot a tag of any sort.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are finally heating up with four wins in five games and James Taillonhas more than held his own. Taillon battled control issues at times in the minors but one wouldn’t know it from his performance thus far in 2016. His ball% and first-pitch strike % hint that his control is likely to rise, but stay well above-average. Taillon does a fine job of using his height (6’5”) to his advantage, getting a strong downward tilt which leads to piles of groundballs. He did a great job of limiting HR in the minors (0.6 hr/9 in 444 IP), but an ill-fated hr/f has inflated his hr/9 (1.4) so far in the majors. That does not figure to be an issue at this park at night.
Taillon lost two years due to April 2014 Tommy John surgery and July 2015 hernia surgery, but he has bounced back nicely in 2016. Armed with a 94 mph fastball that can touch 97 mph (four-seam and two-seam), a good curve and a developing change-up, it’s easy to see why Taillon has created so much excitement. He has a BB/K split of 3/27 over his last 32 innings with a 1.97 ERA. He has shown flashes of his immense upside and so we are going to buy low on him before the prices go up. There is a lot to like here.
Steve Janus
New York at Arizona
Play: Arizona +151
Play On - Home teams (ARIZONA) - average hitting team (AVG =.255 to .269) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or less) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL). This system is 152-81 (65%) against the money line since 1997 (Perfect 4-0 this season).
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox +164
The Chicago White Sox are worth a shot tonight as massive road underdogs to the Cleveland Indians. This is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate. Plus, the White Sox had Monday off, while the Indians played the Red Sox yesterday and lost.
Jose Quintana is perhaps the most underrated starter in baseball. He is 9-8 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 23 starts this season. Quintana has owned the Indians, going 5-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.
Corey Kluber has posted solid numbers as well this season, but not as good as Quintana. Kluber is 12-8 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 23 starts. He is also 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 13 career starts against the White Sox.
Kluber is an awful 22-28 (-19.2 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons. Kluber is 7-15 (-14.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last two seasons. Chicago is a very profitable 26-24 (+18.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last three seasons.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals +133
The Kansas City Royals continue to fight to try and get in position to make the postseason. They have gone 7-2 in their last 9 games overall and carry that momentum into a Game 2 showdown with the Detroit Tigers, who have gone 2-6 in their last 8 contests. Danny Duffy has been one of the best starters in the American League this season. He's 9-1 with a 2.79 ERA in 17 starts, 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA in 7 road starts, and 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA in his last 3 starts. Duffy also sports a 3.35 ERA in 13 lifetime starts vs. Detroit. He's certainly worth a look here at this tremendous price. The Royals are 14-3 in Duffy's 17 starts this year.
Rocketman
Oakland @ Texas
Play: Texas -132
The Oakland A's travel to Texas to take on the Rangers on Tuesday night. Oakland is 52-67 SU overall this year while Texas is 70-50 SU overall on the season. Andrew Triggs is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA overall this year. Oakland is scoring only 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters this year and 3.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Texas is allowing only 4.3 runs per game against division opponents this season where they are 30-19 SU vs division opponents on the season. Texas is 50-34 this year at night and 52-34 against right handed starters this season. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 103-82 run with free picks: Milwaukee at CHICAGO (-1', -110).
The STORYLINE in this game today - It's just not fair, matchups like this. The Chicago Cubs are clearly better than the Milwaukee Brewers, and will prove that with a blowout win. There is a pitching mismatch, with Jason Hammel over Chase Anderson, and that will be evident from the start. The Cubs are clearly the best team in baseball, and they will continue to streak and win big.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - This is the second game of a doubleheader, so Hammel may be seeing some tired bodies. Wouldn't matter, though, as the right-hander is on a roll, posting a 5-0 record and 1.16 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break. He won his career-high 12th game in his last outing against the Angels.
BOTTOM LINE is - Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Hammel over Anderson. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
2* CUBS
Brad Wilton
The Mets and Diamondbacks have played 4 times now this season, and 3 of the 4 have landed Over the total. Included is last night's 10-6 affair.
Look for enough runs again tonight to take this game Over the total.
I know Noah Syndergaard owns a 2.75 ERA for the year, but let's remember that he was on the wrong side of the 9-0 score last week at home when he faced Arizona, and Syndergaard's ERA of 4.76 for his last 3 starts doesn't indicate that this will be a 1-0 affair.
Braden Shipley has seen limited duty this season, and is making just his 5th start of the season. Yes, he did work 7 scoreless against Syndergaard his last time out in that 9-0 final, but that game did go Over the total.
The D-Backs have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the total, and they are now 15-5-1 Over the price in their last 21 games contested.
Mets-Diamondbacks Over the total.
4* N.Y. METS-ARIZONA OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Yankees at home over the Blue Jays.
New York won last night's series opener, 1-0, as the new-look Yanks continue to scrap. The Yankees have now won 9 of their last 14 games, as they have stayed in the postseason mix for a lot longer than expected this season.
Michael Pineda is just 6-10 on the season, but he has been pitching much better of late, going 4-4 with a 3.81 ERA over his last 13 starts. The Yankees have won 9 of those 13 starts as well.
Marco Estrada starts for the Jays, who have lost 3 straight on the road entering Tuesday's action. Estrada is solid at 3-2 against the Yankees in 7 starts, but his ERA is at 3.92, so he has not dominated New York.
I will side with the Yankees to hand the Jays their 4th straight road loss.
1* N.Y. YANKEES
Chris Jordan
My free play for Tuesday night is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the San Diego Padres in Interleague play. This is going to be a struggle for the Friars, as I see another pitching mismatch in this one.
Snell steps to the hill after his shortest MLB outing, as he tossed just 1 2/3 innings in a loss to the Blue Jays last Wednesday. Thing is, that's not like him. The young southpaw has electric stuff, and it's simply his maturity that tends to lapse, and he'll lose focus and struggle with command. For instance, over his past six starts, he has issued 16 walks in 31 frames. But in his last three starts, he is 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA. He can deal, and today he will.
Meanwhile, San Diego's journeyman has certainly been a bright spot for the Padres, but I still don't trust the right hander. I know he’s looked sharp in four of his five starts, twice carrying a no-no into the sixth, and I've watched his breaking pitches - a slider and a curve - become effective of late. But tonight in this humidity, his grip will struggle, his off-speed junk won't break and he will get hit hard.
Take the Rays on the run line.
1* RAYS
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is the Texas Rangers in a blowout, over the Oakland Athletics. With the price being so high, play the Rangers on the Run Line in this game.
Let's start with Harrell, who is in after allowing six runs against the Rockies on Thursday - the most he's given up since being acquired from the Braves. Tonight will be about redemption. He did manage to strike out eight over six innings. And since he has a disappointing 9.55 ERA in eight career outings against the A’s, I think this will be a motivational game for him.
He'll get plenty of confidence with the run support he'll get from Triggs, who is being called in from the bullpen to help the injury-plagued A’s rotation. Triggs went four innings in a start against the Orioles last Thursday, when he allowed three runs on five hits with no walks and four strikeouts. Now he takes on the division leader and that will spell trouble.
These two will duel tonight, as it stays low.
2* RANGERS -1.5
ASA
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 10
The Orioles are back home after a West Coast swing and having the day off yesterday helps them get over any jet-lag. The fact is that the O's should be riding an emotional high after rallying from a 7-1 deficit to beat the Giants in San Francisco Sunday. That was the 3rd time in their last 4 games that Baltimore has notched double digits in hits. The Orioles offense seems to have snapped a recent slump as they have now averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games. They'll be able to "tee off" against the Red Sox starter tonight. Eduardo Rodriguez will be toeing the rubber for Boston tonight and he has a 5.81 ERA on the road this season. The BoSox southpaw gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work the last time he faced the Orioles (mid-June). The Orioles will have Yovani Gallardo making the start tonight and he has given up at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts against Boston. Also, the right-hander has only completed more than 5 and 1 / 3 innings once in his five home starts this season. Gallardo now faces a tough Red Sox lineup and Boston is rolling with 4 straight wins and averaging 8.5 runs per game during this 4 game stretch. Both teams should stay hot at the plate tonight.